Latest News
Rare Firefight Erupts Between Israeli Troops & Jolani Militants In Syria's South
1743726600 from ZEROHEDGE
Rare Firefight Erupts Between Israeli Troops & Jolani Militants In Syria's South Rare overnight clashes erupted in southern Syria between Islamist militants and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), which has occupied swathes of Syrian territory beyond the Golan Heights since Bashar al-Assad's December 8 ouster. The IDF and Israeli media describe that it happened at the town of Tasil, with widespread reports that the Syrian fighters attempted an ambush. Tasil is located about eight miles from the Israeli border. IDF tank in the Golan, via EPA This marks the first time IDF troops have come under direct fire since occupying southern Syria. Tank units have been spotted moving into the region over the past months. According to more details in Israeli media: The Israel Defense Forces said the troops of the 474th Golan Regional Brigade returned fire and "eliminated" several gunmen "on the ground and from the air." No soldiers were injured in the exchange, and the operation in the area was completed, the IDF added. The militants are believed to be from the ruling Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group or their allies, out of Daraa. Israel's KAN had also reported on clashes which emerged after "dozens of IDF vehicles advance in the Nawa area of the Daraa suburbs." Wednesday saw several massive Israeli airstrikes across Syria, including on Damascus, a military base in Hama, and reportedly an airbase in the desert near Palmyra. The Syrian Foreign Ministry accused Israel of "destabilization" in the attack which killed at least nine people. There are reports that among the dead were three Turkish engineers. "In a blatant violation of international law and Syrian sovereignty, Israeli forces launched airstrikes on five locations across the country. This unjustified escalation is a deliberate attempt to destabilize Syria and exacerbate the suffering of its people," the Foreign Ministry under interim President Sharaa (Jolani) stated. Reports of Israeli convoy AMBUSHED near southern Syria’s Daraa Social media footage appears to show huge gunfight going on outside city Reports from Israeli media of IDF casualties Islamic Resistance Front in Syria claiming responsibility for attack pic.twitter.com/Q9t5VXVNEh — RT (@RT_com) April 2, 2025 Some sources framed the gunfight in the south as a revenge attack for the widespread Israeli airstrikes carried out shortly before. The new regime in Syria has been completely defenseless, also after prior Israeli attacks took out the country's Russia-supplied anti-air missile units. Syria also no longer has an air force to speak of, amid reports that Turkey could help fill the gap. But clearly Israel's message to Turkey is that the IDF plans to dominate the skies of Syria with no rival. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 20:30
"No Signs Of Slowing" Active Listings Continue To Surge Across DC Housing Market
1743723600 from ZEROHEDGE
"No Signs Of Slowing" Active Listings Continue To Surge Across DC Housing Market The latest housing data for the Mid-Atlantic region—comprising Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia—shows a continued surge in active listings. The region remains particularly vulnerable to potential DOGE-driven cuts targeting the bloated federal bureaucracy. "The number of active listings increased for the seventh consecutive week, rising 1.8% from last week. Supply growth shows no signs of slowing, with active listings now 28.9% higher compared to the same week in 2025. Compared to a year ago, inventory is significantly higher in all regions within the Bright MLS service area," MLS Bright, the leading Multiple Listing Service firm in the Mid-Atlantic area, wrote in a new weekly report. Here's the weekly snapshot for the Bright MLS service area—with a focus on surging active listings. More importantly, our focus shifts to the Washington, DC housing market, where active listings for the week ending March 30 have skyrocketed by 51.7% compared to the same week one year ago. Visualizing the surge in DC active listings... North Central Virginia. Returning to DOGE-related cuts impacting the federal government, Goldman provided clients with a telling chart. Federal Grants Have Largely Stagnated at a Below-Trend Level Since Inauguration Day The broader macro risk for DC is that DOGE-related cuts may exert downward pressure on the region through increased job losses, sagging consumer sentiment, or a softening labor market. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 19:40
The Globalist Authoritarians Are Playing With Fire
1743722100 from ZEROHEDGE
The Globalist Authoritarians Are Playing With Fire Authored by Kurt Schlicter via Townhall.com, What happened with Marine Le Pen, the most popular politician in France who was just banned from standing for election on the flimsiest of pretenses, is no exception. It’s becoming the rule around the West and in other places, too, where being outside the mainstream of authorized establishment left-leaning globalist politics has become criminalized. In some places, like the UK and Spain, it takes the form of persecuting people for saying things that those in power don’t want to hear. In other places, like Germany, upstart populist parties that earned a significant number of votes are informally, and sometimes formally, marginalized and threatened with being banned. But it’s the criminal persecution of leaders that is becoming the go-to. It happened to Bolsonaro in Brazil, Netanyahu in Israel, Georgescu in Romania, and Le Pen in France. In each of these cases, the establishment authoritarians essentially attempted to frame a politician they couldn’t beat at the ballot box. Of course, their American analogs tried to do the same thing to Donald Trump here, and when that didn’t work, their allies tried to murder him. Thankfully, they failed at both – with the people who instigated these atrocities too dumb to know that they are the ones who should be the most thankful they failed. These are not the acts of strong and confident leaders who believe in the strength and popularity of their ideology. These are the cowardly acts of authoritarians who differ from Putin not in their nature but only in their extent. They haven’t thrown anybody out of a fifth-story window yet that we know of, though we don’t know if they actively put the murderer who tried to kill Trump in Butler up to it – the one who tried to ambush him in Florida was an active member of their collective – but they would’ve cheered if either attempt had succeeded. Thankfully, America was not so far gone that the people’s choice could not prevail, though the resisters in the judiciary, the regime media, and elsewhere are doing everything they can to ensure that the man the people elected to govern can’t actually exercise the powers of office. The European authoritarians, however, still have the ability to crush dissent. There are several reasons why, including the fact that most of the good Europeans long ago left for America, and the ones who remain are largely degraded and pathetic people. After all, Europe is an exhausted culture, too weak both morally and spiritually to come to its own defense. Its glorious cathedrals are museums now, and its armies are jokes. They can’t find the will or the courage to defend themselves, and Europeans have turned over their governance to corrupt, globalist fools who invite the Third World in to complete the destruction of what was the mother of civilization. Americans are saddened and sickened by them. It’s difficult to explain to Americans why we should spend our treasure and put our blood on the line for nations that oppress their own people and embrace sham democracy. Even the UK, the father of our democracy, has turned into a political deadbeat dad. Why should we have a special relationship with a country that sends cops to the house of parents complaining about school policies? Under the Democrats, they tried to do that here, and we rejected it. We demonstrated at least a modicum of manhood in the face of this petty tyranny. But until the Europeans demonstrate their commitment to doing something about their own enslavement, it’s unclear how we might help. We certainly shouldn’t be protecting them from other European dictatorships – we have no interest in refereeing among oppressors. The fact that they need us to do so reflects their decision to essentially disarm and become pathetic welfare states teaming with foreign parasites and native cowards. In short, America cannot be expected to – and is not going to – care more about Europe than the Europeans do. Our response as Americans to fascist acts like the framing of Le Pen should be loud and bold condemnation and contempt. What they are doing is truly disgusting – and dangerous, too. We should say so, especially since their citizens can’t without fear of a knock on the door. The European ruling class hates hearing it, especially when JD Vance goes overseas and tells them the truth to their smug, pale faces. Their fussy fury when he exposes their fake democracy and lies about freedom is hilarious. But all they should get from us is talk. We should let them fend for themselves. They are unworthy of a special relationship, and it’s impossible to frame a coherent or compelling explanation of why a single American paratrooper should die in defense of any country that refuses to allow its most popular politician to run because the establishment dislikes her platform. We should certainly learn the lesson here about what’s going on over there, although, as we’ve seen, the Democrats have tried many of the same tactics. That they’ve been defeated so far is a testament to the fact that Americans are not yet completely broken. We’re not ready to be serfs, and the fact that we have more guns than people provides a powerful backstop against the kind of tyranny the globalist left would love to impose in America as well. I shudder to think of what would have happened if Trump had been murdered or if they had succeeded in knocking him off the ballot. But I’m not shuddering for my sake. If the stuff hits the fan, I and those like me will prevail. I’m shuttering over the fate of the morons whose greed, corruption, and stupidity would have sparked a conflict they are utterly unprepared to fight. And I do mean fight. That’s what happens when the ruling class uses a corrupt system to block the expression of the people’s will and leaves no peaceful path for it to be heard. We are very far from that here, but if it came to that, patriots would fight for our Constitution and our freedom. The elite and their minions? Who exactly would do their fighting? Who is willing to die to enact the Green New Deal, to impose DEI, or to allow dudes in girls' toilets? Harry Sisson would flee to Canada to be a sex pest at the local Tim Horton’s before he ever picked up a rifle. Will there be a revolution in Europe? France was once famous for its revolting people. There’s a lot of anger, but there aren’t a lot of weapons left among the citizenry – never, ever, give up your guns and, in fact, go buy guns and ammunition. On the other hand, there aren’t a lot of troops either for the governments to use to suppress their own people and force the people to accept the dictatorship should the Euro masses decide to leave their tiny, squalid apartments and take to the streets. The ugly truth is that civil wars don’t necessarily require guns. Hundreds of thousands of people were butchered in Rwanda with knives and machetes. Maybe Keir Starmer was thinking ahead when he banned ninja swords. Civil wars are the least civil kind of wars. They are best avoided. Or maybe they will just accept a picture of the future that is a wizened EU crone’s Gucci slipper stamping on a human face forever. Maybe manipulating the judicial system to ensure that the supporters of popular leaders are disenfranchised won’t cause any more reaction among the people than some grumbling in their bizarre foreign languages. But, if you’re familiar with history, and most of our elite no longer is, you might remember Julius Caesar and his crossing of the Rubicon. The Rubicon was the border to Italy that a Roman proconsul serving abroad could not cross at the head of his armed troops. Caesar knew that if he laid down his imperium and returned to Rome as a civilian, his political enemies would use the judiciary to destroy him. So, he didn’t lay down his imperium when he returned to Rome. He brought his legionnaires. Now, one might point out that Caesar’s political enemies did eventually murder him after he essentially became a dictator in fact, if not title. That’s true. Caesar was famously merciful to his enemies. Several of the men who slaughtered him had received his pardon. The guy who came after him didn’t make that mistake. Caesar’s heir hunted down those murderers and killed them, along with a lot of other people. Augustus then made himself emperor, again in fact if not title. In the end, the elite probably would have been better off not messing with Caesar and addressing the concerns of the plebs who adored him. Perhaps history is teaching us that today’s popular leaders like Donald Trump and Marine La Pen are not the people’s last chance. They are the globalist’s last chance. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 19:15
The Global Trade Game: Jokers Are Wild
1743719100 from ZEROHEDGE
The Global Trade Game: Jokers Are Wild Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome. Okay, players: jokers are wild, but with a twist: the entire deck is jokers. Since everyone at the table will have five Aces, nobody wins. Welcome to the Trade War Poker Table: nobody wins, as everyone has the same hand of jokers. This is not to say that exploitive, mercantilist "free trade" (no such thing has ever existed) is desirable, much less possible. We're reaping the consequences of what was passed off as "free trade": corporations gleefully gutted National Security to boost profits by offshoring everything that could be offshored. Every nation can impose tariffs or limit imports by other means. Tit for tat tariffs, concessions, grand deals, side deals--everyone has access to the same deck of cards. Who wins each round of play is an open question, as is who wins the game. There are several time-tested strategies in the game for Global Domination (tm). One is domination gained by exporting far more than you import, building up treasure in the form of vast trade surpluses. The problem with this strategy is eventually the nations being stripped by your mercantilist strategy wise up and limit your exports. There is only one way to get around this: military force, i.e. establish a Colonial Empire in which your colonies are forced to buy your surplus production (exports) via a bayonet in their back. Absent force and a colonial empire, mercantilism is eventually defeated by its own success. There is another way to play for Global Domination (tm), and it's the exact opposite of mercantilism: run large, sustained trade deficits by importing more than you export, which beneath the surface is a remarkable flow of trade: the importing nation "exports" its currency in size in exchange for goods and services. Once this currency is "exported" in sufficient quantities, it becomes the dominant currency simply from its ubiquity, its liquidity (i.e. its quantity and ubiquity make it easy to trade everywhere) and its trustworthiness due to its wide ownership across global markets: since the currency is spread across the globe, the issuing nation no longer controls its valuation; that's now set by the market. This is Global Domination (tm) via financing trade rather than by running trade surpluses by exporting tangible goods. Pick one, as you can't have both: either export goods to run mercantilist trade surpluses, and build up a trove of other nation's currencies, or "export" your own currency via sustained trade deficits so it becomes the global lingua franca of financing trade. Due to the demands of the Cold War, this was the U.S. strategy in the postwar era. As I have often explained, the U.S. was not merely in an arms race with the Soviet Union; it was also in a war for influence and alliances. The strongest adhesive in alliances is self-interest; by absorbing the surplus production of its allies in Europe and Asia in exchange for dollars, the U.S. cemented alliances that essentially encircled the Soviet Empire. This strategy was far more effective than open conflict, but it came with a cost. Just as the success of mercantilism generates its own undoing, so too does maintaining a reserve currency via trade deficits / exporting one's currency. Should the issuing nation (in this era, the U.S.) decide to limit imports and reduce its trade deficit, its currency will slowly lose the global scale needed to sustain its market dominance. This is Triffin's Paradox, which I've addressed many times over the years: any currency--and the system for creating and distributing the currency--has two masters it cannot possibly serve equally: the domestic economy and the global economy. Any nation that wants to control the valuation of its currency cannot possibly achieve global financial dominance, as the only way to gain and maintain global financial dominance is to surrender control of the currency's valuation to the market via exporting currency in such vast quantities that the global market sets the value. There's a profound irony in this. To manage the domestic economy, the state wants to control everything: the issuance of currency and its valuation via its relative abundance or scarcity, which is reflected in the cost of credit (i.e. interest rates) and asset prices. But to gain the high ground in the global financial landscape, the currency must serve the global demand for a currency that is ubiquitous, extremely liquid and trustworthy precisely because its value cannot be reset by state diktat. The valuation of a truly global currency is constantly influenced by interest rates, bond issuance, demand and so on--all the features of a transparent marketplace. The game of Global Domination (tm) will never be decided by a deck of jokers. The real game is 5-card draw: you play the cards you've been dealt by Nature, history, culture and chance. Every nation has a spectrum of strengths and weaknesses, advantages and disadvantages. Some are rich in resources, some are poor in resources. Some have advantageous geography, some less so. Some have cultural coherence, others have diversity; each is a strength and a weakness. In Nature, the winner is not necessarily the strongest or the one most blessed by chance. The winner tends to be the one with the greatest capacity and incentives for flexibility, experimentation, a level playing field (i.e. social mobility) decentralized capital and all the traits of fast adaptation: if not an appetite then at least a capacity for a continual churn of instability, failure and self-criticism, which are the necessary components of experimentation. There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome. Any form of dominance generates its own undoing. * * * Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 18:25
Will Hoarders Spark Run On Imported Goods? These Are The Most-Exposed US Retailers
1743717600 from ZEROHEDGE
Will Hoarders Spark Run On Imported Goods? These Are The Most-Exposed US Retailers Ahead of President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff rollout on Wednesday afternoon—particularly the 25% tariff on vehicles and auto parts imported into the U.S.—reports surfaced last week of consumers rushing to dealerships to purchase vehicles already on the lot, as those would be exempt from the new levies. We suspect that if consumers are willing to flock to auto dealerships, they're probably just as willing to stock up on their favorite Chinese-made products before the next round of tariffs takes effect this weekend and next Wednesday. Tariffs on Chinese goods are set to increase by 34% next Wednesday, on top of the existing 20%, bringing the effective rate to 54%. This will significantly impact companies heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing (and other Asian countries), forcing them to absorb the cost or pass it on to consumers—setting the stage for sticker shock. Goldman analysts Brooke Roach, Kate McShane, and others earlier today provided clients with a breakdown of Trump's reciprocal tariffs: On April 2nd, President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. This includes a 10% tariff increase on all countries (excluding Mexico and Canada) and a higher rate of increase on select countries with trade deficits, set to take effect on April 5th and April 9th, respectively. We believe the most material impact to our retail coverage from the announcement is the increase in tariffs on key sourcing partners for retail such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Cambodia. China: Tariffs on China move to 54% (a 34% increase vs. the 20% tariff already in effect). Tariffs broadened to key sourcing partners: Tariffs on other key sourcing partners for U.S. retail are set to be implemented, including Vietnam (46%), Indonesia (32%), Bangladesh (37%), Italy (20%), India (27%), and Cambodia (49%). Imports from the European Union will also be subject to a 20% tariff. Canada and Mexico: The announcement maintains tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Exemptions under USMCA will remain, which exempt compliant products from the 25% tariff rate on both countries. Should current orders be terminated, USMCA compliant products would receive preferential treatment while non-USMCA compliant goods would be tariffed at a 12% rate. Material increase to softlines tariff rate overall: On our calculations, the announcement implies a ~38% weighted average tariff rate for total apparel and footwear imports to the U.S. Given the tariff breakdown and timeline, Roach and McShane provided clients with a "China Tariff-O-Meter," highlighting companies in their retail coverage whose supply chains are heavily exposed to China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Cambodia. From their Softlines coverage, companies such as Warby Parker, Torrid Holdings, Groupe Dynamite, Nike, Yeti Coolers, and SharkNinja have high exposure to China and other Asian countries targeted by Trump's upcoming round of tariffs. In other words, the products from these companies entering U.S. ports in the coming days will be subjected to sizeable tariffs. In their Hardline coverage, companies such as Floor & Decor, Lowe's, RH, Williams-Sonoma, Target, Dick's Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, and Five Below have elevated or high supply chain exposure to China or other Asian countries. Take note of the Softline and Hardline retailers listed above. If there's a product you've been eyeing—whether it's a new couch from RH or some Chinese junk from Five Below—now might be the time to buy. To avoid paying higher prices for foreign goods, just buy American. We also suspect searches for "American Made" will begin to rise. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 18:00
Health And Human Services Layoffs Begin Leaving Federal Workers Stunned
1743715200 from ZEROHEDGE
Health And Human Services Layoffs Begin Leaving Federal Workers Stunned The first stage of cuts to Health and Human Services (HHS) have begun with 10,000 employees slated to be fired in the coming weeks. Pink slips have been replaced with deactivated key cards as workers line up at HHS offices across the country to find out if they still have a job. The establishment media is out in force to paint a tragic narrative of "public servants" who only want to do good for less fortunate souls no unable to fulfill their calling. It's all quite dramatic. It's hard to say when government bureaucrats suddenly became an army of charitable saints sacrificing themselves for the good of humanity. The HHS currently employs around 82,000 people within 10 regional offices and the average income for a worker is around $100,000 with benefits. The majority of them are pencil pushers and social workers, not doctors or scientists making grand discoveries in medical technology. When they do get involved in medical study, disasters seem to follow. Keep in mind that the HHS was partly involved in the funding of gain of function research by EcoHealth Alliance, which, in conjunction with projects run by Dr. Peter Daszak and Dr. Anthony Fauci at the NIH, reportedly led to the creation of human transmissible coronaviruses at the Wuhan Level 4 Virology Lab in China (ground zero for Covid). The annual budget of the HHS is $1.8 trillion - It accounts for around 20% of all federal dollars spent every year and tracking where this immense pool of cash goes is far more complex than the shady operations of USAID. The agency is, by any measure, a monstrosity. Cuts are intended to hit the FDA, CDC, and the NIH, all under the umbrella of the HHS. A large portion of programs instituted by HHS tap into pandemic funds set aside during covid (yes, the covid cash is still floating around after 5 years). This money goes to support numerous programs that the majority of Americans voted against, including DEI programs, illegal immigrant programs and gender affirming care programs (gender based care for minors was indeed pursued by the HHS). The point is, it's not worth feeling sorry for these people. When they had unmitigated power they abused it in grand fashion and everything that happens from here onward is pure Karma. Democrats in at least 23 states are taking action to sue the Trump Administration over the budget cuts and layoffs. In the lawsuit, filed Tuesday, the states are seeking a temporary restraining order and injunctive relief to immediately halt the administration’s funding cuts that they say will lead to key public health services being discontinued and thousands of health-care workers losing their jobs. The civil suits are unlikely to make much difference in the end, just as they failed to stop the cuts to USAID. The HHS, now under the management of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is expected to undergo unprecedented changes in the coming months and a level of accountability the institution has probably never dealt with before. “The COVID-19 pandemic is over, and HHS will no longer waste billions of taxpayer dollars responding to a non-existent pandemic that Americans moved on from years ago. HHS is prioritizing funding projects that will deliver on President Trump’s mandate to address our chronic disease epidemic and Make America Healthy Again,” the agency said in a statement last week. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 17:20
Intel, TSMC Tentatively Agree On Chipmaking JV In 'America First' Era
1743712800 from ZEROHEDGE
Intel, TSMC Tentatively Agree On Chipmaking JV In 'America First' Era Intel shares are up 5% late in the cash session following a report from The Information that sheds light on ongoing talks between Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) to form a joint venture to operate Intel's chipmaking facilities. Under the proposed deal, TSMC would take a 20% stake in the new company and offer manufacturing expertise and personnel training. *INTEL, TSMC TENTATIVELY AGREE TO FORM CHIPMAKING JV: INFORMATION — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 3, 2025 Two people familiar with the talks between Intel and TSMC provided additional color about the preliminary agreement to form the new joint venture: Intel and other U.S. semiconductor companies will hold the majority of the shares in the proposed JV, which would include at least some of Intel's existing chip foundries, said the two people. In exchange for the 20% stake, TSMC has discussed sharing some of its chipmaking methods with Intel and training Intel personnel to use them, insteading of funding its stake with capital, one of the people said. It isn't clear how the rest of the new entity would be funded. The deliberations are ongoing and no final agreement has been reached, the two people said. There's still resistance from some Intel executives concerned that the deal would cause widespread layoffs at the company while subsuming its own chipmaking technology, according to two Intel employees. The JV was encouraged by members of the Trump administration and is part of the broader 'America First' effort to revive the U.S. chipmaking sector after decades of decay. It also plays into hemispheric defense, where the U.S. will rely less on foreign adversaries for chips. President Trump has previously accused Taiwan of "stealing" America's chip industry: "You know, Taiwan, they stole our chip business ... and they want protection." However, TSMC has reversed the tide with additional investments in the U.S. - more than $100 billion. Multiple reports over the last several weeks, including this one from Reuters, have discussed TSMC pitching a JV with Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom to operate Intel's factories. TSMC Reportedly Pitches JV With Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom To Operate Intel Foundry https://t.co/3NKo9IY6zx — zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 12, 2025 Sources via The Information continued: White House and Commerce officials have been pressing TSMC and Intel to strike a deal to resolve the long-running crisis at Intel, one of the most iconic U.S. technology firms. Commerce officials who have facilitated the negotiations support the tentative deal, said the two people who have been involved in some of the talks. . . . The proposed joint venture could also help TSMC effectively put down a major, if struggling, competitor and give the Taiwanese government more bargaining power with the Trump administration, which just levied tariffs on goods other than chips from the island. In February, Robert W. Baird analysts wrote in a note to clients that the Trump administration was working to broker a JV between Intel and TSMC, one which would focus on something we said last August has excess value at the Intel enterprise, namely its fabs... Intel has 15 fabs; the fabs alone are worth $10bn/each in liquidation value. The value created by management is negative $50 billion. https://t.co/HkqUQJ4A6J — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 2, 2024 In markets, Intel shares are up 5% in late cash trading. On the year, shares are up about 16% on speculation of a deal - shares have been floored around $20 handle. Will Intel shares fly in Trump's America First era? Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 16:40
Microsoft Scales Back AI Data Center Projects In US, Australia, UK
1743708300 from ZEROHEDGE
Microsoft Scales Back AI Data Center Projects In US, Australia, UK TD Cowen analyst Michael Elias has explained to clients through multiple notes over the last month that Microsoft has scaled back on data center projects in the U.S. and Europe. This development is unsurprising, as readers have been aware of the emerging risks posed by the cheaper and more efficient Chinese DeepSeek (as noted on Jan. 27), prompting us to question whether AI data capacity will be achieved sooner than initially anticipated. Another worrying sign for the AI bubble—or rather, a continuation of Elias' reporting on Microsoft scaling back data center projects—comes from Bloomberg, which provides additional color on MSFT supposedly halting data center construction sites in Indonesia, the UK, Australia, Illinois, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Here's more from the report, citing people familiar with talks (list courtesy of Bloomberg): Microsoft recently withdrew from negotiations to lease space between London and Cambridge in the UK at a site being marketed for its ability to host advanced Nvidia chips, according to people familiar with the talks, who requested anonymity to discuss a private matter. The company has also halted negotiations for data center space at a site near Chicago, according to a person familiar with the talks. In some cases, Microsoft is delaying construction. For example, it has paused work on parts of a data center campus it owns about an hour outside of Jakarta, according to people familiar with the situation. Microsoft also has put on hold some planned expansion at a site in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin, part of a complex visited by then-President Joe Biden, according to another person. In London, Microsoft was negotiating to lease space at Ada Infrastructure's 210-megawatt Docklands data center but has held off on committing to the project, according to people familiar with the matter. Elias first raised concerns about Microsoft scaling back on AI computing capacity in a note on Feb. 24, in which he stated that Microsoft was terminating AI data center leases. This was followed by a separate note last week, in which the analyst reported that Microsoft had walked away from data center projects in the U.S. and Europe, amounting to a capacity of approximately 2 gigawatts of electricity. "We continue to believe the lease cancellations and deferrals of capacity points to data center oversupply relative to its current demand forecast," Elias said last week. News of the cheaper Chinese DeepSeek—a response to OpenAI's ChatGPT—in late January, which is allegedly 40–50 times more efficient than other large language models, had Goldman's Rich Privorotsky at the time proposing a new theme that spelled bad news for the AI bubble: "If you can do more with less, it naturally raises the question of whether so much capacity is necessary." The whole "do more with less" theme produced by DeepSeek sparked a debate that AI peak demand capacity could be reached much sooner than Goldman's forecast of late 2026. Capex revisions next? Year to date, Goldman's AI and power baskets have gotten the memo... Goldman's China AI basket leads US AI baskets. . . . Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 15:25
Massive International Pedophile Streaming Network Discovered; 2 Million Users Shared Child-Porn Across 35 Countries
1743707100 from ZEROHEDGE
Massive International Pedophile Streaming Network Discovered; 2 Million Users Shared Child-Porn Across 35 Countries Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, A massive darknet international pedophile child porn network calling itself “Kidflix” has been discovered and shut down by Europol. Investigators stated that site shockingly had more than 91,000 child porn videos on it, with around three new videos being uploaded to its servers every hour. Users were paying a fee for access to stream and upload their own videos of child sex abuse. They were able to make payments via cryptocurrencies to avoid a paper trail, and were given the incentive of earning tokens to spend on the site by uploading content. Kidflix, one of the largest paedophile platforms in the world, has been shut down in an international operation against child sexual exploitation. ⏹️ Europol has supported authorities from 38 countries worldwide in shutting down the platform. More: https://t.co/eoETaBNyBi pic.twitter.com/FPI9xkuTkE — Europol (@Europol) April 2, 2025 Dozens of arrests were made, the agency announced Wednesday, noting that the network had around two million users and spanned across 35 countries. The network was terminated at the direction of the Bavarian State Criminal Police Office in Germany. One of the world’s largest pedophile networks, Kidflix, has been dismantled in a massive international operation against child exploitation. Authorities from 38 countries, including the U.S., Canada, and Australia, collaborated in a global effort to shut down the platform.… pic.twitter.com/jQCpJxde8a — Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) April 3, 2025 German broadcaster NTV reports that 79 people have been arrested thus far, with around 1,400 further suspects identified. The investigation spanned almost three years and has now concluded with thousands of electronic devices being seized and the servers of the monstrosity, located in both Germany and the Netherlands, being shut down. The report notes that Europol officials believe those arrested not only watched and uploaded child pornography, but are also suspected of carrying out the sexual abuse of the children. This isn’t even an isolated incident, these massive pedo operations are in play everywhere. 🇵🇱 OVER 1 MILLION CHILD P*RN FILES SEIZED IN POLAND The files were uncovered during an extensive nationwide operation conducted by the Polish police. They raided 112 locations, charging 75 suspects aged 16 to 78, with 31 in pre-trial detention. Among the material were images… pic.twitter.com/ixfnO88ouv — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) November 12, 2024 𝗨.𝗦. 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗨.𝗞. 𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗻𝗻𝗲𝘅, '𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗱 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗵𝘆 𝗪𝗲𝗯𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆,' 𝗙𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳… pic.twitter.com/9jHuscKLOT — Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) March 11, 2024 Still think child sex trafficking isn't a problem Canada? You'll want to give this a read...👇 Have you heard of the Canadian film company Azov Films? Azov films was a Toronto based film company founded by Brian Way. The company was selling and streaming footage of naked… pic.twitter.com/g1MXUiXl8X — 🇨🇦Unacceptable Canadian Girl🇨🇦 (@AreOhEssEyeEe) June 23, 2024 2 predators arrested & 9 children rescued in an ongoing investigation in SE Asia. 9 terabytes of data including child sexual abuse material were recovered at the scene. 1 terabyte alone can hold up to 1 million smartphone quality pictures, or thousands of hours of video. pic.twitter.com/Kvo1PVtaKv — Our Rescue (@OURrescue) August 21, 2020 South Korean National and Hundreds of Others Charged Worldwide in the Takedown of the Largest Darknet Child Pornography Website, Which was Funded by Bitcoin@drawandstrike @catesduane @rising_serpent @almostjingo @tracybeanz @CarrollQuigley1 @dbonginohttps://t.co/yZOOXyL7t6 — Headsnipe011 (@Headsnipe011) October 16, 2019 WATCH 🚨 45 People Arrested For Being Child Predators, Prostitutes, Human Traffickers, Child Traffickers & Wanting To Eat Children, Yes Cannibalism “Sheriff told us about a man who he said wanted to eat a child. Yes. Eat her as in cannibalism, And that was just one of the… pic.twitter.com/Na04RsreXG — IlluminatiCoin (@naticoineth) February 22, 2024 Earlier this year, French police announced arrested 37 people and seized over a million picture and video files of child pornography from computers, tablets, smartphones, and even cameras. According to The French newspaper La Dépêche reported that the operation, which began in November, involved 270 gendarmes, including 36 cybercrime specialist investigators. 🚨 ALERTE INFO - 37 PEDOPHILES ARRÊTÉS DANS L’EST DE LA FRANCE Plus de 1 MILLIONS DE FICHIERS PEDOPORNOGRAPHIQUE Sur la saisis ont retrouvent 60 ordinateurs, 290 supports de stockage externes, 27 téléphones portables, huit tablettes, quatre caméras Plus de 270 ENQUÊTEURS… pic.twitter.com/fP0CWWslMr — AlertesPedo (@AlertesPed0) January 27, 2025 A separate international operation last December also led to the arrest of 95 people in France in connection to a cross-border child pornography ring. In that case, police seized hundreds of devices with an estimated 375,000 photos and 156,000 videos of child pornography, making up 217 terabytes of data. #BellesAffaires 🖥️ Démantèlement d’un important réseau pédopornographique international via l'application #Signal, par la SR de Versailles et les gendarmes du @CyberGEND : ➡️ 570 gendarmes mobilisés ➡️ 500k photos/vidéos découverts ➡️ 95 personnes ont été identifiées en France pic.twitter.com/xTC1UsJm6Y — Gendarmerie nationale (@Gendarmerie) December 21, 2024 While investigators have managed to rescue some of the children who were victims of these horrendous activities in each case, the numbers are always disappointingly low, and it’s clear many thousands more, if not millions are still suffering. The level of evil is unimaginable. Leftists will tell you it’s all just a big conspiracy theory though. And in some cases they will investigate anyone who tries to expose it. * * * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 15:05
'Disloyal' NSC Staffers Fired After Laura Loomer Brings Receipts To The White House
1743703500 from ZEROHEDGE
'Disloyal' NSC Staffers Fired After Laura Loomer Brings Receipts To The White House Three staffers on the National Security Council have been fired after journalist Laura Loomer met with President Trump in the Oval Office on Wednesday, where she presented him with a list of 'disloyal' employees, the NY Times reports, thanks to ongoing (and copious) leaks from the administration. Mr. Trump may act on some of Ms. Loomer’s recommendations, two of the people said. Ms. Loomer walked into the White House with a sheaf of papers, which amounted to a mass of opposition research attacking the character and loyalty of numerous N.S.C. officials, two of the people said. She proceeded to excoriate them in front of their boss, the national security adviser Michael Waltz, who was also in the meeting. -NYT The rest of the Times report amounts to a character assassination on Loomer, which was to be expected - writing that "Loomer’s rhetoric and actions have been so extreme that she has alienated others even on the far right." The White House meeting came after weeks of Loomer posting about various 'disloyal' Democrats within the Trump administration - including deputy national security adviser Alex Wong, who she says added a journalist from The Atlantic to a DoD Signal chat on behalf of his boss, national security adviser Michael Waltz (Waltz was in Wednesday's meeting, according to the report). In posts to X, Loomer noted that Wong's wife worked as a DOJ lawyer for the Biden and Obama administrations, and her father is a large shareholder in a Chinese satellite manufacturer. The roughly 30-minute meeting with Loomer was held shortly before Trump's major tariff announcement in the White House Rose Garden. Also in the meeting aside from Waltz were VP JD Vance, Sergio Gor - the head of presidential personnel, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and White House communications director Steven Cheung, according to the NYT's leakers. Loomer Responds "I woke up this morning to learn that there are still people in and around the West Wing who are LEAKING to the hostile, left-wing media about President Trump’s *confidential* and *private* meetings in the Oval Office," Loomer wrote on X in response to the news, adding that she would not divulge any details about her meeting. I woke up this morning to learn that there are still people in and around the West Wing who are LEAKING to the hostile, left-wing media about President Trump’s *confidential* and *private* meetings in the Oval Office. I want to reiterate how important it is that people who gain… — Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) April 3, 2025 According to Loomer, there's "More to come!" “Exactly one hour before he received the termination email, Laura Loomer posted on social media about Mr. Schleifer, calling him a "Biden holdover.” More to come! pic.twitter.com/ndc0qAXdf3 — Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) April 3, 2025 * * * Grow your own food with HEIRLOOM SEEDS (39 varieties - 4,500 seeds) from ZH Store! Free shipping in the USA. Click pic... buy seeds... take food supply into your own hands... Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 14:05
This Trump Shock Is A Reverse Nixon
1743702300 from ZEROHEDGE
This Trump Shock Is A Reverse Nixon By Michael Every of Rabobank Hoot Small-ly and Reverse Nixon Again In line with the Churchillian tone I had struck, yesterday’s US tariffs were historic and suggest a world-wide battle. It remains to be seen in what form, with what outcome, but global bifurcation is again on the cards. The US raised its weighted-average tariff to 29%, the highest in over 100 years, and above the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s. That’s staggering, not just for the US, or inflation or GDP, but for the global system built on the US as consumer of last resort for everyone else’s overproduction and the US dollar as the lubricant for that trade and the US financial assets everyone accumulates as a result. The US assumed a non-tariff barrier with each trade partner leading to reciprocal tariffs as the simple function of the US bilateral trade deficit as a ratio of exports to it, e.g., Indonesia runs a $17.9bn trade surplus with the US and exports $28bn to it, so $17.9/$28 = the 64% assumed Indonesian trade barrier, which the US offered a ‘discount’ on down to 32%. On one hand, this is nonsense. On the other, it’s exactly what Ricardian theory says should happen under free trade: all bilateral flows should balance, with the composition of the basket shifting with comparative advantage. That it never does for the US shows the theory isn’t true; so, the US is using both hands to pull down the system ostensibly based on it. It’s critical to understand that before talking about the numbers below and hooting small-ly about Smoot-Hawley. We got massive increases in tariffs on Asian exporters like Bangladesh (37%), Cambodia (49%), China (34%), India (26%), Indonesia (32%), Japan (24%), South Korea (25%), Thailand (36%), and Vietnam (46%). Moreover, these are stackable on top of pre-exiting tariffs, so China faces 54% at least, with the threat of another 25% for buying Venezuelan oil and another 25-50% for buying Russian oil. That is a dramatic escalation between the world’s two largest economies. The EU fared slightly better (20%), but which is four times higher than what we had presumed in our own model assumptions. Most others, including the UK, Australia, and New Zealand got 10%, a divide-and-rule tactic we’d expected, as did Latin America, the Monroe Doctrine also expected, especially if the US now offers dollar liquidity to help shift supply chains in that direction. But what then for Brazilian agri trade to China? Nobody --except Russia(but that's because it is under sanctions)-- was overlooked: even a small island off Australia got a 10% tariff for its population of penguins, and the closest of US defence allies like Israel and the Philippines face 17%, while Iran only sees 10%. The only exemptions apart from Canada and Mexico were on steel and aluminium, autos, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, bullion, energy and other minerals not available in the US; but the first three already have 25% tariffs in place, with the rest waiting for one. The US postal de minimis loophole is also over for everyone with a tariff once systems are ready, except for bonafide gifts and items brought into the US while traveling. That upends a lot of e-commerce. We now start the next phase of negotiation and/or retaliation. It’s hard to imagine the UK, Australia, or New Zealand will rock the boat, and the same is true for anyone getting just a 10% tariff. Indeed, Latin America may be rubbing its hands at the geostrategic windfall ahead. But what about Asia? For example, will China allow CNY to move lower? Does that drag other FX down with it? Does the US then raise tariffs even higher? Or will China switch to domestic consumption, which would be inflationary? What are the options for Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and India? They can’t “trade more with China” unless it plays the US importer/consumer role, but it won’t want to import more. So, does all of Asia inflate domestically with the US, or sink into deflation? Or does everyone but China pivot to the US side vs. China? We have already published a report on what we expect Europe to do and underlined the risks of escalation that risks rapidly moving from trade into other areas. Indeed, the US is already pressuring Europe to buy American weapons rather than local as it rearms: if Europe accepts, maybe the trade war and security issues are resolved in tandem; and if it refuses, Europe may face more US intractability on NATO, and trade, and energy, and perhaps even on dollar swaplines. Another key point to stress is renewed talk of ‘dedollarisation’. Notably, US 10-year yields are going down, now at just 4.06%, even though inflation will almost certainly be seen and for some time. The DXY broad dollar index is dropping, and even Asian exporters hit by massive tariffs are only seeing slight selloffs in their FX. Indeed, JPY is rallying despite Japan being reliant on the US for its defense as well as exports, as is EUR, with Europe reliant on the US for energy and tech on top of security and exports. Crypto tumbled, but gold hit a new record high before dipping. However, the initial FX reaction reflects repatriation of US assets; and it overlooks the CNY threat and that there can’t be a global system within which JPY and EUR can thrive without the dollar’s current role. That’s hard to accept, but it’s true. An ECB speaker just said Europe has a unique opportunity to push the global use of the Euro. Yet besides requiring the issuance of Eurobonds, a huge hurdle, that would see Europe run capital account surpluses, as funds flood in, and matching current account deficits, as foreign goods flood in too. In short, Europe would follow the US in deindustrialising, financialising, and polarising just as it needs unifying and militarising. Yet Europe would also need a large military to have a true global reserve currency role, because those with such muscle won’t just roll over! While US actions show it wants to stop the dollar being a lubricant for most exporters to it and conduit for financial assets back to them, it doesn’t want to lose its role in commodity pricing, and global trade, settlements, and debt. History shows a country can retain a global FX reserve even without a trade deficit, but it takes mercantilism to do it – which we are now seeing. As I say, the implications are so large that markets don’t fully grasp them, or don’t want to. It’s one thing for them to have been forced to recognize that guns now matter as well as butter, but it’s another to realize life is now about gunship diplomacy (“We have 11 aircraft carriers: we get to say which currency commodities are priced in. Understand?”). Equally, macro models trying to capture what this means presume everything returns to mean and vast net trade deficits are absorbed by the system. If they don’t, the model breaks; here, the system does. One may disagree with Yanis Varoufakis on many things, but he knows his economic history – which markets don’t. He begins a recent must-read (‘Will Liberation Day transform the world? The Nixon Shock set a radical precedent’) thus: “My philosophy, Mr President, is that all foreigners are out to screw us and it’s our job to screw them first.” With these words, the US Treasury Secretary convinced the President to deliver a colossal shock to the global economy. In the words of one of the President’s men, the objective was to trigger “a controlled disintegration of the world economy”. No, those words were not spoken by members of President Trump’s team in advance of their “Liberation Day” tariff splurge. While the “foreigners are out to screw us” certainly has a Trumpian ring, it was uttered in the summer of 1971 by then Treasury Secretary John Connally, who succeeded in convincing his President to unleash the infamous Nixon Shock a couple of days later. Commentators should know better than to pretend that the shock Trump is now delivering is both “unprecedented” and bound to fail like all “reckless” assaults on the prevailing order. The Nixon Shock was more devastating than the one delivered today, especially for Europeans. And precisely because of the economic devastation caused, its architects achieved their main long-term objective: to ensure American hegemony grew alongside America’s twin (trade and government budget) deficits. The success of the Nixon Shock in no way guarantees the success of Trump’s version, but it does remind us that what is good for America’s rulers is not necessarily good for most Americans or, indeed, for the world. One of the smartest Nixon advisers, who helped to convince Connally of the need for a shock, articulated this point with brilliant clarity: “It is tempting to look at the market as an impartial arbiter. But balancing the requirements of a stable international system against the desirability of retaining freedom of action for national policy, a number of countries, including the US, opted for the latter.” Then with one additional phrase he undermined all of the assumptions on which Western Europe and Japan had erected their post-war economic miracles: “A controlled disintegration in the world economy is a legitimate objective for the Eighties.” And 10 months after giving this lecture, the man in question, Paul Volcker, rose to the Presidency of the Federal Reserve. Soon, US interest rates were doubled, then trebled. The controlled disintegration of the world economy, which had started when President Nixon was convinced by Connally and Volcker to dismantle the hitherto stable exchange rates regime, was now being completed with interest rate hikes that were far more devastating than Trump’s tariffs can ever be today. Trump is therefore not the first President to seek the controlled disintegration of the world economy by means of a devastating blow. Nor is he the first to purposely damage America’s allies to renew and prolong US hegemony. Nor the first who was prepared to hurt Wall Street in the short run in the process of strengthening US capital accumulation in the long term. Nixon had done all that half a century earlier. And the irony is that the world the Western liberal establishment is grieving over today came into being as a result of the Nixon Shock.” He concludes: “Every generation likes to think it is on a cusp of some historic transformation. But ours is cursed enough to actually be on such a cusp. So rather than focusing too much on the character of the man in the White House, we would do well to recall that the Nixon Shock was much more important than Nixon. If Nixon reshaped the world once, leaving it nastier and more unbalanced, Trump can certainly do it again.” This Trump Shock is, again, a reverse Nixon: to take the US from trade deficits and financialisation back to raw US mercantilist power, using parts of the old system to do so. (As I have put it, using economic statecraft; or, using financial Fartcraft to shift back to Warcraft.) That’s as: the US put sanctions on some Russian entities; Israel blew up the runway of the Syrian airbase Turkey is taking over; the US pours military equipment into the Middle East; the US senate pencils in $5 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade; and Elon Musk is rumored to be leaving the White House circle soon --stocks rallied (“No more DOGE corruption-cutting!”)-- which he denied. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 13:45
Auto Tariffs Pump Brakes On Jeep Owner; Stellantis Pauses Canada, Mexico Plants
1743701100 from ZEROHEDGE
Auto Tariffs Pump Brakes On Jeep Owner; Stellantis Pauses Canada, Mexico Plants President Trump's 25% tariffs on imported vehicles took effect overnight, with the first signs of impact materializing Thursday morning—i.e., shares of U.S. carmakers tumbled in the early cash session, and Stellantis NV announced plans to temporarily suspend production lines in both Canada and Mexico. Bloomberg reported that the global automaker overseeing 14 car brands will pause production at its Windsor, Ontario plant for two weeks starting next Monday. Details about how long production lines in Mexico would remain offline were not disclosed. "With the new automotive sector tariffs now in effect, it will take our collective resilience and discipline to push through this challenging time," Antonio Filosa, head of the company's North American operations, told employees in a memo earlier. He said the move will affect employees at "several" of the company's U.S. powertrain and stamping facilities supporting Canada and Mexico operations. Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska warned clients that a "25% automotive imports lasting beyond four to six weeks would likely have a chilling effect on the entire sector as [automakers] need to grapple with significant impact to the bottom line." TD Cowen's Itay Michaeli described the tariffs as "close to the worst case outcome vs. recent expectations," while Barclays' Dan Levy warned: "there are no 'winners' in the absolute – only relative winners." Upcoming production changes at some of Stellantis' factories in Canada and Mexico are some of the first effects of Trump's 25% tariffs on auto imports. The administration's move is to revive America's industrial base, and the only way to do that is to use tariffs to force companies to re-shore operations. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told clients that "the concept of a U.S. carmaker with parts all from the U.S. is a fictional tale that does not exist and would take years to make this concept a reality." CNBC noted, "Parts that are currently compliant with the USMCA trade deal will be tariff-free, but only until the secretary of commerce and Customs and Border Protection establish processes to impose levies on non-U.S. content." In markets, automakers were pressured lower with broader main equity indexes. General Motors dropped 2.4%, Ford -2.2%, Rivian -3%, Lucid -4%, and Tesla -3.5% An analysis we shared with readers on Tuesday, "Trade War Hits The Gas: Trump's Auto Tariffs To Reshape Global Manufacturing," provides more color into how the repercussions of the auto tariffs could be far more impactful than initially appear—impacting everything from dealership showrooms to global supply chains. The move to restore America's hallowed industrial core begins. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 13:25
The Rio Reset: Inside The BRICS Scheme To Hotwire The Global Economy
1743697200 from ZEROHEDGE
The Rio Reset: Inside The BRICS Scheme To Hotwire The Global Economy Authored by Peter Reagan via Birch Gold Group, BRICS+ leaders are meeting in Rio de Janiero this summer. Their dedollarization drive has made huge progress over the last two years. Here’s what they’ve accomplished so far – and why the Rio Reset will stun the world… The warning signs were there (but most people missed them) In August 2023, all eyes were on Durban, South Africa when the leaders of the BRICS alliance met behind closed doors. A few weeks before, Russia’s top diplomat Sergey Lavrov made global headlines claiming the BRICS alliance was close to launching a “gold-backed currency.” Their intentions were clear: First to challenge, then to replace, the U.S. dollar. It was a bold claim – and for everyone who understood the role the dollar plays in the global financial system, it was a truly frightening moment. It would be an exaggeration to say the world held its breath – but I don’t mind telling you, I certainly held mine! The meeting came and went. BRICS held press conferences and announced new committees… But the gold-backed international BRICS currency never materialized. Ever since, we’ve been wondering what happened. Did Lavrov overplay his hand? Was the foreign minister (or perhaps Putin himself) simply trolling the Biden administration? The election of President Trump seemed to put the final nail in the coffin. He swore instant, punitive sanctions on any countries that replaced the dollar in their global transactions. Trump understands that dollar dominance is a matter of national security. And he understands the consequences of losing – “If we lost the dollar as the world currency, I think that would be the equivalent of losing a war,” he told The Economic Club of New York in September 2024. The shared BRICS currency experiment was dead even before arrival. Or was it? I’ve always had my doubts and my suspicions. As a result, over the last few weeks, I’ve called in every favor. Cashed in every chip I have with the movers and shakers in Washington D.C. Consulted analysts and insiders on three continents (trust me, it wasn’t cheap!) – and I think I finally understand what happened. In hindsight, the real story wasn’t what Lavrov or any of the other BRICS officials announced – it was what they didn’t say. At the Rio Reset in July, BRICS will reveal their real plan Back in 2023, BRICS never revealed their real plan. The threat of an international, gold-backed BRICSbuck was a brilliant distraction. The mainstream media laughed it off. The alternative media engaged in doom-mongering. And BRICS members quietly pressed ahead with something far more ambitious: A complete, parallel global financial system – a new, 21st century Bretton-Woods – designed to bypass the dollar completely. What Lavrov called a “currency” was just a decoy. A distraction meant to keep us focused in the wrong direction. This summer, July 6-7, 2025, BRICS leaders are meeting again in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. I want you to join me in watching this meeting closely. Because I expect truly astonishing news. An event truly worthy of the name Rio Reset. But not for a new currency announcement! Let me explain why I think this is just a distraction... When I say “money” or “currency,” what do you think of? Most people think of something like this: Author’s personal collection of currencies from The Bahamas, Brazil, China, Nigeria, the UK, the U.S., Vietnam and Zaire. Or this: A mock-up of a shared BRICS currency, revealed by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the 2024 BRICS meeting in Kazan, Russian Federation. These are all examples of currencies. We're all familiar with currency, because we use it every day. Currency is the most visible part of the global financial system. Compared to the scale of the global financial system, though? Any single currency (even all currencies!) are just the tip of the iceberg… The true scope of the Rio Reset is staggering This is what our global financial system looks like: Image via PlatON That chart is not deliberately confusing, by the way. This really is what the global financial system looks like. Key institutions, clearing and settlement systems, domestic and international institutions, compliance and regulatory agencies – and that’s just the organizations. Each of them has its own set of compliance requirements, regulations, procedures and regulatory body at both the national and international levels. Now, it would be silly to pretend that this entire post-World War II, Bretton-Woods global financial system was all carefully planned and painstakingly executed. Parts of it were – and the rest developed over time. THAT is what BRICS have been working on! What the Rio Reset really means The term Rio Reset may be new – but the underlying idea is not. This is the culmination of everything BRICS nations have worked toward since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Their goal? To insulate themselves from dollar devaluation, dollar weaponization and the financial instabilities inherent in the dollar-based global financial system. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 12:20
Far-Left Maryland Lawmakers Pass Reparations Bill While Financial Crisis Looms
1743696000 from ZEROHEDGE
Far-Left Maryland Lawmakers Pass Reparations Bill While Financial Crisis Looms Far-left Maryland lawmakers, sitting high in their Annapolis castle, are completely detached from reality. They masquerade as public servants but are merely progressive activists who cannot govern properly. Instead of addressing the state's incoming financial crisis and worsening power crisis, these woke lawmakers have focused on condoms for kids and other disastrous left-wing policies. It's as if these politicians are sabotaging the state... Democrats in the state have been spending taxpayer monies like drunken sailors, driving the state to the brink of a financial crisis marked by a $3.2 billion deficit, heightened credit downgrade risk, and a worsening power crisis. Compounding the situation, DOGE-related cuts to the bloated federal bureaucracy threaten to trigger a devastating recession in the state, whose economy is mainly dependent on the federal government and produces little value in the private economy. On Wednesday, instead of addressing the mounting problems, Democratic lawmakers passed a bill in a 101–36 vote to establish a commission tasked with studying and recommending potential reparations for slavery and the lasting effects of racial discrimination in the state. The bill now heads to far-left Gov. Wes Moore's desk, who has previously said he will consider signing the statewide reparations commission. Remember, Moore is being primed by the Democratic Party for a presidential bid in the upcoming elections. However, he has already been accused of stolen valor. The Maryland House gave preliminary approval Tuesday to a bill creating a statewide reparations commission to study and recommend benefits for Marylanders whose ancestors were enslaved or impacted by inequitable government policies. The legislation, a top priority for the… pic.twitter.com/v2nD5ekFcU — The Baltimore Sun (@baltimoresun) April 2, 2025 "I have said and long stated that the history of racism in this state is real," Moore previously stated, adding that the impacts "are still very much being felt and they've been structurally felt within the state of Maryland." The governor and Democratic leadership in Annapolis are in over their heads when it comes to effectively managing the state. The reason is simple: they're activists, not managers. Instead, these activist leaders are steering Maryland like a drunk driver on a busy highway—crashing into everything in sight while barreling toward a cliff. That cliff is a looming financial crisis, driven by reckless spending and further compounded by DOGE-related cuts. The Democrats in Annapolis have no solutions to save the state. Actually, they do - it's taxes, taxes, and more taxes, such as a proposed service tax, and, more recently, a "sleeping tax," as we joked. "Is a Thinking Tax Next? " Maryland Democrats Pass "Sleep Tax" - Is a Thinking Tax Next? https://t.co/ujScbAAnrT — zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 29, 2025 Instead of addressing real crises—while tens of thousands, if not over 100,000, residents struggle with skyrocketing power bills caused by backfiring green policies—these lawmakers recently thought it was a good use of time to debate about installing vending machines filled with condoms for children. Maryland Democrats are pushing a bill to put VENDING MACHINE CONDOMS in KINDERGARTEN Literally beyond parody pic.twitter.com/Ynd5X15vzP — Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) February 26, 2025 Maryland's current direction is disastrous and will likely spark an exodus of residents and businesses. A large asset manager based in the state has already told us they're advising clients against investing in Maryland municipal bonds—and are encouraging clients living in the imploding state to relocate. If the solution to an imploding state is reparations, condoms for kids, and a tax on sleep, then Maryland voters are in dire need of a wake-up call. Honestly, it might already be too late. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 12:00
Senate Votes To Block Trump Tariffs On Canada After Four Republicans Cross The Aisle
1743694500 from ZEROHEDGE
Senate Votes To Block Trump Tariffs On Canada After Four Republicans Cross The Aisle The Senate has passed a largely performative rebuke of President Donald Trump's ability to impose tariffs on Canada, after four Republicans crossed the aisle for a 51-48 vote. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) (C) speaks alongside Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) (R) and Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) at a press conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on April 2, 2025. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images) The resolution - which has practically no chance of making it through the House (and Trump would veto anyway), passed hours after Trump announced his so-called "Liberation Day" of worldwide tariffs, would end Trump's emergency declaration on fentanyl trafficking used to justify tariffs on Canada, though both Canada and Mexico are exempt from Trump's 10% baseline rate, while products subject to CUSMA/USCMA are exempt. "Tariffs on imports from Canada are still set to rise on Thursday. Auto tariffs announced last week will still push the average U.S. tariff rate on imports from Canada to about 3.5% from 2.5% by our count," said RBC's Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan. "That increase will still matter, but looks small now compared to dramatically higher tariffs set to be imposed on other countries." The four Republicans who joined all Senate Democrats were; Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Rand Paul of Kentucky. Following the vote, former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said, "As I have always warned, tariffs are bad policy, and trade wars with our partners hurt working people most." Trump has argued that Canada isn't doing enough to stop the flow of illegal drugs from entering the USA. In 2024, CBP seized 43 lbs. of fentanyl in its northern border sector vs. 21,000 at the southern US border. Since January, authorities have seized less than 1.5 lbs in the north, according to federal data cited by AP. "This is not about fentanyl. It’s about tariffs. It’s about a national sales tax on American families," said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), who initiated the resolution. Democrats argued that Trump is using the tariffs to pay for proposed tax cuts that would benefit the wealthy, but will also make it more expensive to build homes, buy cars and pay for imported grocery products. Kaine pointed to aluminum imported from Canada that is used by businesses ranging from pie makers to shipbuilders. -AP "Today, Donald Trump takes a sledgehammer to the American economy and even to the American dream," said Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, who of course also had something to say, adding "Once the American people say, ‘I don’t want to embrace somebody, I don’t want to vote for somebody, I don’t want to support somebody who embraces Trump’s policies,’ things are going to change." During Wednesday's presser, Trump singled out Canada as a chief beneficiary of "unfair" trading practices with the US despite not adding any new tariffs as part of the Lutnick plan. "Why are we doing this? I mean, at what point do we say, ‘You’ve got to work for yourselves and you’ve got to’? This is why we have the big deficits," said Trump. Standing up for Trump were several Senate Republicans - who insisted that Canada's punishment was more about fentanyl than the impacts of tariffs. "There are unique threats to the United States at our northern border," said Majority Whip Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) said during a floor speech, adding that former President Joe Biden had "also thrown open the northern border. The criminal cartels noticed and they took advantage." "President Trump is taking the bold, decisive, swift action that is necessary to secure that border as well," he continued. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 11:35
'Luigi Mangione' Copycat Kills Pharmacy Worker In California
1743691500 from ZEROHEDGE
'Luigi Mangione' Copycat Kills Pharmacy Worker In California Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA, A copycat of alleged insurance executive assassin Luigi Mangione apparently harbored so much hatred toward large pharmacies that he targeted a Walgreens in California and fatally shot a vulnerable employee, police said. The accused perpetrator, Narciso Gallardo Fernandez, shot and killed Erick Valasquez inside a Walgreens in Madera, California during Velasquez’s shift in what investigators describe as a random attack, Madera Police Chief Gino Chiaramonte said. A chilling video widely shared on social media captured Gallardo Fernandez entering the Walgreens, waving his hands before firing at the camera. He then targeted Valasquez, a husband and father of two young children. “He has generalized anger towards pharmacies through previous issues,” Chiaramonte said, according to local news outlet KSEE. In an apparent "Luigi style" shooting at a Walgreens in Madera, CA, 30-year-old Narciso Gallardo Fernandez murdered a father of two in cold blood due to a grudge against large pharmacies. This is a deranged coward who deserves society's deepest contempt and punishment. pic.twitter.com/VCvKvS90Ni — Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) April 2, 2025 The unhinged man, who reportedly drove 80 miles to reach the Walgreens, also shot other store workers and customers as they fled. He was reloading his weapon when law enforcement approached him in the parking lot. “He not only point blank murdered the store employee Erick Velasquez, but the store manager and a female victim after the shooting fled out the front door and he turned and started shooting towards them,” Chiaramonte said. The police chief said the alleged gunman told officers that he knew it was over by the large presence of police, lights and sirens coming. Local resident Alexis Miller-Jones expressed shock at the harrowing incident, noting that she often visits the store with her 11-year-old child. “I’ve not seen anything to this magnitude in our town,” Miller-Jones told KSEE. “One time somebody busted in the doors and stole a bunch of cigarettes, but that was the biggest, this is a lot more scary.” Walgreens reacted to the killing in a press statement, stating: “We are deeply saddened by last night’s tragic event, which resulted in the death of one of our team members. Our thoughts and prayers are with their loved ones during this difficult time.” The killing comes less than four months after UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was fatally shot by activist Luigi Nicholas Mangione in a New York City street. CCTV footage captured Mangione approaching Thompson and firing a 3D-printed pistol fitted with a 3D-printed suppressor in an assassination-style attack. Mangione now faces several state and federal charges for the murder, with the Trump-led DOJ seeking the death penalty. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 10:45
Here Are The Three Goals That Trump Wants To Achieve Through His Global Trade War
1743689700 from ZEROHEDGE
Here Are The Three Goals That Trump Wants To Achieve Through His Global Trade War Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack, He hopes to strengthen the US’ supply chain sovereignty, renegotiate its ties with all countries with a view towards getting them to distance themselves from China, and shape the emerging world order. Trump’s decision to tariff the entire world to varying extents as revenge for their tariffs against the US has shaken the global economy to its core. Instead of restoring free and fair trade like he claims to want, which would give American companies an advantage, he might inadvertently accelerate regionalization trends and the subsequent division of the world into a collection of trade blocs. Even in that scenario, however, he could still advance the three unstated goals that are responsible for this policy. The first is to strengthen the US’ supply chain sovereignty so as to eliminate the leverage that other countries have over it. This might not be pursued solely for the sake of it, but perhaps also as contingency planning, thus hinting at concerns about a major war. The two most likely adversaries are China and Iran, and a hot conflict with either would throw the global economy into turmoil. Trump might therefore want to prioritize reshoring in order for the US to preemptively minimize the consequences. The second goal builds upon the first and relates to the US prompting every country to renegotiate their bilateral ties, during which time the US could offer to reduce tariffs in exchange for certain concessions. These could take the form of distancing themselves from China to a degree and gradually replacing it with the US with their top trade partner. Other incentives could also be dangled such as technology-sharing and military deals. The purpose would be to weaken China by chipping away its foreign trade. And finally, the last goal is to shape the emerging world order, to which end the US had to speed up the end of the present one by shaking the global economy to its core like Trump just did. Obtaining supply chain sovereignty and replacing China as the top trade partner for as many countries as possible would give the US’ leverage over a sizeable portion of the world. While it’s premature to speculate the ways in which the US could exploit this, it’ll almost certainly be in the context of its systemic rivalry with China. Even if Trump’s global trade war unintentionally turbocharges regionalization trends and the subsequent division of the world into a collection of trade blocs instead of serving as the unprecedented power play that he expects, the US could still take advantage of this to implement its “Fortress America” policy. This refers to the US restoring its unipolar hegemony over the Western Hemisphere, which would make it strategically autarkic if it receives preferential access to these countries’ resources and markets. In that event, the US would survive and could even thrive even if it’s pushed out of the Eastern Hemisphere upon losing the major war that it might be planning or if the consequences thereof make that part of the world too dysfunctional for the US to manage, which could lead to the US returning to its 1920s-like isolationism. To be clear, the US is unlikely to voluntarily abandon the Eastern Hemisphere, but it would still make sense to plan for that possibility just in case circumstances compel it to do so. All in all, Trump’s global trade war is an epochal event that’ll leave a lasting impact on International Relations regardless of its outcome, but it’s too early to say for sure exactly what’ll come from it. The only thing that can be said with any certainty is that Trump has a grand plan in mind even if he doesn’t ultimately achieve any of his goals, the three most likely of which were touched upon in this analysis. In any case, the old era of globalization is now over, but it remains to be seen what’ll replace it and when. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 10:15
VW Among Several European Automakers To Halt Vehicle Shipments, Raise Prices, In Response To Tariffs
1743688200 from ZEROHEDGE
VW Among Several European Automakers To Halt Vehicle Shipments, Raise Prices, In Response To Tariffs Here come the price hikes... European automakers are hiking prices and shifting production to the U.S. in response to Trump’s auto tariffs. Volkswagen will add import fees to vehicle prices, while Volvo and Mercedes-Benz are considering expanding U.S. manufacturing to avoid the 25% duties, according to Bloomberg. German brands like BMW, Porsche, and Mercedes are especially exposed, but strong U.S. demand—particularly for SUVs—keeps the market attractive despite the rising costs. Trump’s tariffs, which took effect Thursday, mark a “fundamental turning point in trade policy,” said Hildegard Müller, head of Germany’s auto lobby VDA. She warned the move would create “only losers,” including U.S. consumers facing “rising inflation and a reduced choice of products.” The Bloomberg article says that Volkswagen notified U.S. dealers it will add import fees and temporarily pause shipments from Mexico and Europe, according to Automotive News. A spokesperson confirmed the memo but declined to elaborate. The tariffs have already shaken the industry—buyers are rushing to make purchases, and shares of German automakers dropped sharply Thursday. Mercedes and Volkswagen fell over 3%, while BMW slipped as much as 4.3%. Mercedes may move production of a model to Alabama to offset tariffs and is weighing pulling its cheaper cars from the U.S. after a 58% sales jump in its top-selling import, the GLC SUV. Germany’s economy minister backed EU talks with the U.S. but warned of a “clear and decisive response” if no deal is reached, calling the tariffs a risk to global stability. Volkswagen, which builds cars in Tennessee, still imports key models from Europe and Mexico. The U.S. now makes up 20% of its revenue, helped by a 7% sales boost in 2024. BMW imports 60% of its U.S. sales and depends on European parts for its South Carolina plant. Mercedes’ Alabama factory faces similar supply chain exposure. Volvo plans to expand U.S. production, while Ferrari will hike U.S. prices up to 10%. British automakers warned Americans will likely pay more for iconic brands like Bentley and Mini. “These tariff costs cannot be absorbed by manufacturers,” said Mike Hawes of the UK’s auto trade lobby, “thus hitting U.S. consumers who may face additional costs and a reduced choice of iconic British brands.” Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 09:50
'DOGE Impact': Federal Govt Layoffs Dominate Biggest March Job Losses In 36 Years
1743683810 from ZEROHEDGE
'DOGE Impact': Federal Govt Layoffs Dominate Biggest March Job Losses In 36 Years Over the last two months, DOGE actions have been attributed to 280,253 layoff plans of federal workers and contractors impacting 27 agencies, according to Challenger tracking. Another 4,429 job cuts have come from the downstream effect of cutting federal aid or ending contracts, impacting mostly Non-Profits and Health organizations. The Government led all sectors in job cuts in March with 216,215, all of which occurred in the federal government. So far this year, the Government has cut 279,445, an increase of 672% from the 36,195 cuts announced in the first quarter of 2024. March’s total is the third-highest monthly total ever recorded. The highest monthly total occurred in April 2020 when 671,129 cuts were recorded, followed by May 2020 with 397,016. It is the highest total for the month of March on record, since Challenger began reporting on job cut plans in 1989. “DOGE Impact” leads job cut reasons this year. “Job cut announcements were dominated last month by Department of Government Efficiency [DOGE] plans to eliminate positions in the federal government. It would have otherwise been a fairly quiet month for layoffs,” Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President and workplace expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Companies’ hiring plans fell in March from 34,580 in February to 13,198. So far this year, companies plan to hire 53,867 workers, a 16% decrease from the 64,163 new hires announced in the first quarter of 2024. It is the lowest Q1 hiring total since 2012 when 52,540 new hiring plans were announced. Meanwhile, according to the government's official data, the labor market is awesome with only 219k Americans filing for jobless claims for the first time last week - a level that has been basically consistent for the last three years Kentucky, Illinois, and Iowa saw the biggest rise in initial jobless claims last week while Texas and Massachusetts saw the biggest decline... And despite the surge in layoffs across the Deep 'Tri-State', initial jobless claims have been falling... But continuing jobless claims broke out of its recent range and above its Maginot Line of 1.9 million Americans... That is the highest since November 2021. Continuing Claims across The Deep 'TriState' continue to rise... So who are you going to believe - WARN notices, Challenger Grey, or the BLS? Will tomorrow's payrolls print be the tie-breaker? Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 08:36
Beijing Slams Trump's "Unilateral Bullying" Tariffs, Signals Retaliatory Action
1743679200 from ZEROHEDGE
Beijing Slams Trump's "Unilateral Bullying" Tariffs, Signals Retaliatory Action President Trump's late afternoon announcement on Wednesday—"Liberation Day"—unveiled a far more aggressive tariff policy than top Wall Street analysts had anticipated, prompting panic dumping in global equities and futures markets overnight. Of particular concern is Trump's stance toward China. The total effective tariff rate on Chinese imports surged to 54%, a dramatic increase of 34% from the previously imposed 20% in additional levies tied to fentanyl and earlier duties. Trump's Liberation Day has drawn swift condemnation from Beijing, which has described the escalating tariff war as "unilateral bullying." Nikkei Asia quoted China's Ministry of Commerce, warning that it "firmly opposes" Trump's tariffs and "will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests." The Commerce Ministry noted that the US "ignored" the benefits of a global trading system, adding, "The so-called 'reciprocal tariffs,' which are based on subjective and unilateral assessments by the United States, are not in line with the rules of international trade, seriously jeopardize the legitimate rights and interests of the parties concerned, and are typical of unilateral bullying." The ministry did not discuss specifics on the countermeasures. A ministry spokesperson told reporters that Beijing hopes to "resolve various issues through equal consultation." In other words, it's just a matter of time before Beijing mounts a countermeasure against the US, whether that's targeted tariffs, export controls, or other measures (such as targeting US Big Tech). Or as we've recently seen: Beijing Derailing Panama Port Deal. Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, sang the same tune: China "firmly opposes" Trump's trade war escalation, which "seriously undermines" the rules-based global trading system. He urged Washington to resolve trade differences through talks. However, President Trump tried that with the Chinese Communist Party in his first term with the so-called "Phase One" agreement. Beijing committed to purchasing $200 billion of additional US exports. Yet, the phase one deal with the CCP was derailed by Covid disruptions. The Trump administration's goal with reciprocal tariffs against literally the entire world, including some cases of near triple-digit reciprocal tariffs that will lead to a historic emerging markets shock, is to reverse a half-century or more of de-industrialization policies in the US that have hollowed out the nation's core and produced a national security threat as the world fractures into a bipolar state. pic.twitter.com/fSHTQWcauf — Crypto_Maximaliste (@Crypto__Maxi) April 2, 2025 In financial markets, the People's Bank of China set the daily reference rate for the yuan at 7.1889 per dollar, weakening the currency. This allows the yuan to depreciate and support export competitiveness. A move like this will only draw accusations of currency manipulation from Trump. "We maintain our view that the PBOC will not allow a sharp [yuan] depreciation given capital outflow risks and the government's objective to restore confidence in the Chinese economy," HK Mizuho Securities analyst Ken Cheung wrote in a note earlier. Goldman analysts Andrew Tilton and others told clients: On April 2, President Trump announced "reciprocal" tariffs on trading partners with exclusion of products that are subject to sectoral tariffs, resulting in what we estimate to be an increase of 26pp in the average effective US tariff rate on China, which would bring the total effective tariff rate on Chinese goods to 58%. This is much higher than we and the market had expected. Similar to the experience when the previous two 10% tariff increases were imposed on China earlier this year, we think the Chinese government is likely to retaliate with some targeted tariffs on US products as well as non-tariff measures like export controls. We expect policymakers to continue to resist significant CNY depreciation. We believe the government will step up easing measures to offset the additional growth drag from higher tariffs. We are not changing our 2025 full-year GDP growth forecast of 4.5% at this time due to better-than-expected Q1 data and increased policy easing expectations, as well as remaining uncertainties regarding whether some of the tariffs could be negotiated down in the coming months. That said, we acknowledge downside risk from slowing global growth after the large, across-the board US tariff increases. S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Ming Tan warned that Trump's tariffs could exacerbate China's weak economy: "The drag on China's economy from higher tariffs will transmit to banks. We expect problem loans will rise over the next few years and could leap as high as 6.4% of total loans in a downside scenario." Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, had a big-picture view for clients: "The era of Asia's export manufacturing-led development has come to an end, and the region will need to develop markets closer to home." Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 07:20
In Warning To Turkey, Israel Strikes Several Bases Across Syria
1743677700 from ZEROHEDGE
In Warning To Turkey, Israel Strikes Several Bases Across Syria Israel on Tuesday carried out several major airstrikes on Syria, including targeting the capital of Damascus, according to state agency SANA. "An Israeli occupation airstrike targeted the vicinity of the building of the scientific research center in the Barzeh residential district of Damascus," the outlet said. This area has been hit several times in recent years, as it conducted chemical weapons research under Assad. Smoke over the Syrian capital in the evening hours. Separate airstrikes rocked a military airport in Hamas, and reportedly the T4 airbase in Homs province, in central Syria (Syrian desert). No causalities were initially reported, but some sources say they were particularly intense, with five airstrikes launched on the Hama air base in less than half an hour on Wednesday evening. Regional war correspondent Elijah Magnier observers of the strikes: After bombing Damascus, Israel also bombed Syria, Hama and the T4 airport, challenging Turkey, which was/is planning to establish a military air base at the same bombed airport. Since Bashar al-Assad's ouster on December 8, Israel has conducted literally hundreds of strikes on army bases, weapons storehouses, and alleged chemical weapons sites. The timing of these fresh strikes is interesting especially given Turkey's growing closeness to the new Jolani regime. Israel airstrike on Hama military airport pic.twitter.com/ffRiv7zMoY — ScharoMaroof (@ScharoMaroof) April 2, 2025 We earlier featured reporting which says Turkey is mulling the takeover of Syria's T4 airbase, and could provide aircover to the new government, given it has no air protection to speak of. It appears Israel wants to ensure this doesn't happen: A source familiar with the matter told MEE that Turkey has begun moving to take control of the T4 air base, located near Palmyra in central Syria. "A Hisar-type air defense system will be deployed to T4 to provide air cover for the base," the source said. "Once the system is in place, the base will be reconstructed and expanded with necessary facilities. Ankara also plans to deploy surveillance and armed drones, including those with extended strike capabilities," the same report said. Israel sends a warning to Turkey by heavily striking bases across Syria, saying that Ankara shouldn’t try to prevent Israelis from flying over the airspace https://t.co/VlF5ewcsis — Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) April 2, 2025 While Iran has long been Israel's enemy number one in Syria, Turkey is increasingly being viewed from Tel Aviv as a dangerous regional rival, especially as it cozies up to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham/AQ militants in Syria. Israel now wants to ensure it has complete dominance over Syria's skies for the foreseeable future. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 06:55
European Officials Now Worry About Reliance Of Dollar Funding By The Fed
1743670800 from ZEROHEDGE
European Officials Now Worry About Reliance Of Dollar Funding By The Fed Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Can the EU rely on dollar funding by the Fed with Trump in play? Dollar Funding Under Trump Reuters reports Some European officials weigh if they can rely on Fed for dollars under Trump Some European central banking and supervisory officials are questioning whether they can still rely on the U.S. Federal Reserve to provide dollar funding in times of market stress, six people familiar with the matter said, casting some doubt over what has been a bedrock of financial stability. But the European officials have held informal discussions about this possibility – which Reuters is reporting for the first time – because their trust in the United States government has been shaken by some of the Trump administration’s policies. President Donald Trump has made a sharp break from long-standing U.S. policy in several areas, such as appearing to endorse Russia’s position on Ukraine, raising questions about U.S. commitment to European security and imposing tariffs on its allies. In some European forums where participants assess potential risks to the financial system, these officials have discussed scenarios under which the U.S. government might pressure the Fed to suspend the dollar backstops, two of the sources said. Some officials have been gaming out whether they can find alternatives to the U.S. central bank, the two sources said. In times of market stress, the Fed has provided the European Central Bank and other major counterparts with access to dollar funding. The takeaway from these discussions: there is no good substitute to the Fed, said the six sources, who include senior ECB and European Union banking supervisory staff with first-hand knowledge of the conversations. The sources all requested anonymity to speak candidly about the private deliberations. The ECB and the Fed declined to comment for this article. The White House did not respond to a request for comment. Remarkable Discussion My answer is the same as what sources told Reuters. “The sources consider it highly unlikely the Fed would not honour its funding backstops — and the U.S. central bank itself has given no signals to suggest that.” However, that Europe sees any need for this discussion is remarkable in and of itself. The Fed is still independent, at least for now. But it’s fair game to assume the US Treasury might pressure the Fed to do whatever the Hell Trump wants. Weaponization of Swift Please consider the March 2022 Richmond Fed article What Is SWIFT, and Could Sanctions Impact the U.S. Dollar’s Dominance? The recent removal of Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system has highlighted the importance of payments in supporting economies. But the weaponization of SWIFT has also left some commentators worrying about the loss of the U.S. dollar’s dominance, as it might drive banks and firms to other substitutes. This Economic Brief discusses the economics of SWIFT and explains why emigrating from the U.S. dollar may be more difficult than we thought. The Richmond’s Fed’s assessment is self-serving. Yet, it appears accurate. Importantly the Fed even admits weaponization, the emphasis was mine. Dollar Weaponization Expands On May 13, 2023 I commented Dollar Weaponization Expands – FDIC Message to Foreign Depositors Is Don’t Trust the US Systemic Risk Assessment The FDIC made a “systemic risk exception” for Silicon Valley Bank to protect depositor funds beyond its limit of $250,000 per bank account. FDIC’s stated “insurance” is for US depositors only. But the exception to make all US depositors whole means foreign depositors bear 100% of responsibility for the collapse of SVB. Since bond holders rate higher than unsecured depositors, and the FDIC had significant losses rated to SVB, foreign depositors may get zero cents on the dollar. If you are a foreign depositor at any small or midsized bank, the FDIC is affirming that you better get your money out now. What Does China Do With a Dollar That’s No Longer Risk Free? On March 18, 2022, I asked What Does China Do With a Dollar That’s No Longer Risk Free? Buy Gold? Q&A With Michael Pettis Mish: Will China now hold more commodities and fewer dollars despite the pro-cyclical nature of it? More Euros or Yen over dollars? More gold? Michael Pettis: “Given that so much of China’s “reserves” are now indirect and held by state-owned banks (all the increase since 2017) it’s hard to say what the currency composition of China’s reserves are. “Officially the US dollar is still by far the biggest component, but it is slowly declining. “I expect that this will continue as far as the official reserves go but, as you know, the hard part of reducing the US dollar component of your reserves is figuring out what the alternative should be, and with such high and growing reserves (once you include the indirect reserves at the state-owned banks) that is a very difficult question to resolve.” Is China Dumping US Treasuries? I post https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1648364877302452225 “Strategists Joana Freire and Stephen Jen calculated that the greenback accounted for about two-thirds of total global reserves in 2003, then 55% by 2021, and 47% last year.” This question comes up every year, and every year my answer is the same. No, Luke Gromen, China masks its US treasury holding. Here’s the correct take. Here’s another take. Setser “The dollar’s share of reserves didn’t actually change at all in 2022.“ But if the IMF's data on reserve holdings is adjusted for changes in US bond market valuation, I don't get any real US dollar sales -- No currency got large reserve inflows in 22 in fact. 5/ pic.twitter.com/XWFN9zdzGX — Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) April 19, 2023 What About China? And looking at reserves without also looking at the foreign assets of state banks and SWFs is so ... 2012. The cutting edge of flow tracking (imo) captures SWFs, forwards, state banks and the like ... 7/ pic.twitter.com/K5RRVN2n51 — Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) April 19, 2023 Setser “Looking at reserves without also looking at the foreign assets of state banks and SWFs is so … 2012.“ China masks its reserves in SOEs, something I have commented on many times. Still More Fairy Tales of US Dollar Demise That Didn’t Happen For discussion, please see my April 26, 2023 post Still More Fairy Tales of US Dollar Demise That Didn’t Happen Sorry for the digression, but it’s an important one. It is currently very difficult to avoid the dollar. More Gold Backed BRIC Currency Silliness on Dethroning the Dollar On July 7, 2023, I noted More Gold Backed BRIC Currency Silliness on Dethroning the Dollar If Russia or China had a gold-backed BRIC, what would that even mean? Would you trust it? Buy it? The BRIC is literally of zero threat to anyone. Truth Social Post “The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.” “They can go find another “sucker!” There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America.” On November 30, 2024, I commented Trump’s Obvious Bluff Over BRICS Currency Proves He Is Clueless on Trade Let’s start with the obvious. First, Trump is bluffing. Second, he is clueless as to what the real problem is. Global Consumers of Last Resort The US is stuck with the reserve currency because we have the largest, most open capital markets in the world, the world’s largest bond market, and a far better business climate than the EU, China, or Japan. BRICS Irony Trump demands a weak dollar. True competition to the dollar in the form of alternate reserve currencies would actually help. Trump Wants a Weak Dollar But Needs a Strong One On March 16, 2025, I commented Trump Wants a Weak Dollar But Needs a Strong One One way to get a weaker dollar is for the US to run huge budget deficits and for the Fed to not follow through with interest rate hikes. But that conflicts with Trump’s promise to balance the budget. And balancing the budget would strengthen the dollar. Strengthening the dollar would help with inflation but Trump wants a weak dollar. Trump wants “made in America” but the US is the highest cost producer or nearly everything non-agricultural. So good luck with exports. Trump demands no competition to the dollar, but that is one thing propping up the dollar! It’s all so damn convoluted that Europe is now concerned over dollar funding. US dollar avoidance is not easy, as discussed, but Trump is greatly increasing the incentive for nations to try. I suggest the EU needs to focus on building an alternative to SWIFT, as soon as possible. The EU half-heartily tried, but gave up. Try again, better this time. Swift avoidance would not end dollar reliance, but it would help the EU find ways to avoid US sanctions. And a sanction showdown with the EU is coming. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 05:00
ICC Blasts Hungary For Ignoring Arrest Warrant As Orban Hosts Netanyahu
1743668100 from ZEROHEDGE
ICC Blasts Hungary For Ignoring Arrest Warrant As Orban Hosts Netanyahu The International Criminal Court (ICC) has denounced Hungary’s decision to defy its arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu after The Hague charged him with war crimes last year related to the Gaza war. Netanyahu is set to begin a four-day visit to Hungary on Wednesday. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made it clear he will not enforce the arrest warrant upon issuing the invitation. This despite Hungary being a founding member of the ICC. AFP/Getty Images This marks only Netanyahu's second international trip since the warrant was issued, and he's had to avoid Europe altogether until now. The only other trip was to the United States, where he had received a standing ovation in Congress. Last November, when Budapest first unveiled the formal state invitation, Orban dismissed the ICC's arrest warrant as "shameful" and "absurd". It should be noted that Hungary had also long ago declared it would never arrest Russian president Vladimir Putin should he visit the country. The conservative populist Hungarian leader had further accused The Hague of "interfering in an ongoing conflict for political purposes" - in reference to Israel's Gaza operations. ICC court spokesman Fadi El Abdallah in a fresh statement said that it is not for parties to the ICC "to unilaterally determine the soundness of the Court’s legal decisions." "Any dispute concerning the judicial functions of the Court shall be settled by the decision of the Court," he said, asserting that member nations have an obligation to carry out the rulings of the court. The Associated Press has observed that "Members of Orbán’s government have suggested that Hungary, which became a signatory to the court in 2001, could withdraw." Amnesty International was also among the human rights groups blasting Hungary's provocative invitation, with a spokesperson saying, "Hungary’s invitation shows contempt for international law and confirms that alleged war criminals wanted by the ICC are welcome on the streets of a European Union member state." More anger directed at Orban as he's already unpopular among Western European leaders, and a longtime thorn in the side of EU counterparts... It is outrageous that any European Union state would allow Netanyahu to visit without arresting him on his outstanding International Criminal Court warrant. Hungary is no exception even though Viktor Orban routinely flouts the rule of law. https://t.co/xLoxM5YeQM — Kenneth Roth (@KenRoth) April 2, 2025 Israel's Gaza operations started again last month, and Gaza health authorities say that over 1,000 Palestinians have died since then. This brings the official number of deaths to over 50,000. However, Israel has disputed these figures, and has claimed that tens of thousands of the casualties are actually Hamas fighters. Days ago Israel's military once again ordered the evacuation of Rafah, and emerging reports say that in Gaza City food and water are becoming scarce. Netanyahu has vowed, despite an avalanche of international criticism, to pursue Hamas until the group is eradicated and can no longer attempt to assert its rule over Gaza. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 04:15
Rape, Violent Crime Explodes Even Higher In Germany; Number Of "Non-German" Suspects Up
1743665400 from ZEROHEDGE
Rape, Violent Crime Explodes Even Higher In Germany; Number Of "Non-German" Suspects Up Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, Violent crime and sexual assault cases have increased in number even further in Germany, according to police statistics. The number of “non-German” suspects has also risen by over 7 and a half percent, according to the figures seen by German newspaper Die Welt. The statistics show that violent crime as a whole was up by 1.5 per cent in 2024, a new record high for the country. 1/ German federal crime stats for 2024 are out: ▶️ Overall violent crime up 1.5% over 2023, which itself was a 15-year high. ▶️ Homicide +.9% ▶️ Violent sex offenses +9.3% ▶️ Aggravated assault +2.4% ▶️ Robbery -3.7% https://t.co/hYxhZ76xbj — Andrew Hammel (@AndrewHammel1) March 29, 2025 The report states that the number of murder and manslaughter cases are up by almost 1 per cent in a year, while serious sexual crimes including rape and sexual assault leading to death have risen by a whopping 9.3 per cent in 2024. 3/ ▶️ Overall crime dropped slightly, mostly owing to the German government's decision to legalize cannabis (the number of cannabis offenses dropped 53%). ▶️ Number of non-German suspects overall stable at just under 50%, 17.5% of criminal suspects are asylum-seekers. — Andrew Hammel (@AndrewHammel1) March 29, 2025 As we have previously noted, the “non-German” suspects aspect is also misleading given that many of the “German” suspects of crimes are really foreigners who have obtained German citizenship, or they are Second or third generation migrants. 2023’s stats revealed that violent crime in Germany rocketed to a 15 year high, and 2024’s stats show that it continues to climb. Over 41 percent of all crime suspects in Germany are foreigners, despite only representing 15 percent of the total population. Foreign migrants were also responsible for 58.5 percent of all violent crimes. Meanwhile, the new German government coalition, which is likely to be the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) is looking to ban “lies,” according to a working paper that emerged from the group “culture and media” between the two parties. What constitutes ‘lies’ you might ask. Well, Bild newspaper received a copy of the working paper, which outlines “disinformation and fake news” as threats to democracy. Given that anything that goes against the leftist government narrative is deemed to be ‘disinformation’, you can see where this is headed. Another part of the paper addresses “hate and agitation.” Again, you can see where that’s heading. As we previously highlighted, District council member Marie-Thérèse Kaiser of the AfD Party was found guilty of ‘incitement’ by a district court after she posted a link to the government’s own statistics on crimes committed by migrants, specifically rape, and asked why they are so disproportionately high. Opposition parties on the right, including AfD, have continually argued that the data shows the urgent need for a cap on immigration, and have argued that such ‘integration’ policies are a key component of the coalition government’s race to naturalize millions of foreigners, thereby masking the truth of who is behind the crime surge. * * * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 03:30
Gulf States Refuse To Let US Use Bases, Airspace For Iran Attack
1743662700 from ZEROHEDGE
Gulf States Refuse To Let US Use Bases, Airspace For Iran Attack Via Middle East Eye Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have imposed a ban on US warplanes using their air fields or skies to attack Iran after US President Donald Trump over the weekend threatened to bomb the country. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait have all told the US they will not permit their airspaces or territories to be used as a launchpad against Iran, including for refuelling and rescue operations, a senior US official told Middle East Eye. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military planning. "They do not want to be drawn in," the official said. The Gulf states’ intransigence is a setback for the Trump administration, which has hoped to use massive air strikes on the Houthis in Yemen as a show of force to corral Tehran to the negotiating table on a nuclear deal. If Iran realizes the US's oil-rich Arab allies are not on board with strikes, it could harden their negotiating position. US Air Force C-17 Globemasters at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, via AFP The Gulf states were more accommodating on the Houthi strikes, a former US official briefed on the matter told MEE without divulging which Gulf countries the US used as a launchpad for recent strikes. The former official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said the US felt confident it had enough Gulf support, including to launch important recovery flights, if any American aircraft were downed during those operations. The Trump administration has been courting the Gulf states to come on board as it ramps up a "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran. US defense and intelligence officials met with both their Emirati and Saudi counterparts in March in Washington DC, around the time of the first Houthi strikes. In quick succession, the Trump administration approved long-stalled arms sales to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Doha received approval to purchase MQ-9 Reaper drones, and Riyadh secured weapon systems that convert unguided air to ground rockets to precision rockets. Trump said on Monday that he plans to visit Saudi Arabia and potentially other Gulf states as early as May. US turns to Diego Garcia base The US has been moving warplanes and cargo to Jordan and Gulf states at the highest level since the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel morphed into a simmering regional conflict. According to flight tracking data shared on X by open source analysts, the number of US military cargo flights to the region has surged by 50 percent compared to previous highs. In response to the Gulf states' ban, the US has amassed B-2 bombers at Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, the official said. This is not the first time American war planners leaned on Diego Garcia’s strategic position as an alternative to Gulf air bases. During the late 1990s, when the US was bombing Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Saudi Arabia imposed a freeze, the US used the Chagos Islands base as a launchpad. Open-source satellite information provided by Planet Labs earlier this week showed three B-2 bombers on the US base. Other open-source accounts shared imagery suggesting at least five B-2 bombers were on the base. The Chagos Islands base is within 5,300 kilometres of Iran, well within the B-2 refuelling range of approximately 11,000 kilometres. B-2s are capable of carrying 30,000-pound “bunker-buster” bombs that would be needed to penetrate Iran’s nuclear sites deep underground, known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator. Diego Garcia complicates Iran’s power of deterrence against the US. Iran's tit-for-tat warnings on Gulf In October 2024, when Iran was girding for Israeli retaliation over its second direct missile attack on Israel, the Islamic Republic warned Gulf states it would bomb their oil facilities in response to an Israeli strike. Those carefully constructed tit-for-tat warnings allowed Iran to ward off an Israeli strike on their energy facilities at the time. However, if the US uses Diego Garcia to attack Iran, it could avoid the Gulf states' airspace altogether, or at the very least, give Gulf monarchs some plausible deniability about being involved in strikes. That gives Iran fewer options to deter American or Israeli strikes by threatening the Gulf. Iran was believed to be behind the 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facilities. But Iran and the Sunni Gulf monarchs have patched up ties since then. The Telegraph reported on Monday that Iranian military commanders were being urged to launch pre-emptive strikes on Diego Garcia. Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation For Defence of Democracies think tank in Washington, said on X that while Tehran’s ballistic missiles’ range is publicly capped at 2,000 kilometres, it could hit the island by giving intermediate range ballistic missiles to the Houthis which it may be able to produce, launching Shahed drones from ships or using container-launched cruise missiles that Russia and China produce to attack from the Indian Ocean. From Pacific to Middle East Trump raised the specter of a new Middle East war in an interview on Saturday, threatening "bombing the likes of which they (Iran) have never seen before" if Iran doesn’t agree to a nuclear deal. Trump is pursuing maximalist demands on Iran’s nuclear programme. National security advisor Mike Waltz said recently that the US wanted to see a “full dismantlement” of Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. Iran, which insists its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, has rejected that. The Trump administration’s demands also put the US on a collision course with Russia, with which it is trying to reset relations. Russia built Iran's first nuclear power plant at Bushehr, and its state-run atomic energy giant Rosatom says it is in talks to build more. Regional diplomats and analysts are trying to decipher whether the US military build-up in the Middle East is designed to put teeth behind Trump’s threats or if the US is preparing for a strike. In addition to cargo flights, the US has ordered two aircraft carriers to the Middle East. Notably, the US has moved the carrier Carl Vinson out of the Pacific and to the Middle East, despite heightened tensions around Taiwan. The US has at least 40,000 troops in the Middle East. The majority are located in the oil-rich Gulf states, where they are based at a string of strategic air and naval bases. Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base is home to the US’s 378th Air Expeditionary Wing, which operates F-16 and F-35 jet fighters. The US operates MQ-9 Reaper drones and jet fighters out of the UAE’s Al Dhafra Air Base. Kuwait’s Ali al-Salem Air Base is home to the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing. Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base hosts the regional headquarters for US Central Command. It has also hosted some Israeli military officials, MEE has previously reported, but it's not clear if those officials are still in the country. The island kingdom of Bahrain is home to around 9,000 US troops that belong to the headquarters of the US Naval Forces Central Command and the US Fifth Fleet. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 02:45
How Globalists Use Crazed Leftists To Piss Off The Populace And Provoke Dictatorship
1743650700 from ZEROHEDGE
How Globalists Use Crazed Leftists To Piss Off The Populace And Provoke Dictatorship Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us, There is nothing more dangerous than an incomplete picture of history. A hundred years from now, if the powers-that-be have their way, the few children still allowed to be born (due to carbon controls) will be regaled with school lessons about the “Dark Ages of Nationalism” – When humanity was divided into warring states and divided societies that refused to embrace multiculturalism “to the detriment of all”. They will say that a “great movement” for globalism and wokeness arose and that the courageous revolutionaries fought evil conservative fascists using any means necessary. The political left will be painted as heroes fighting, not for freedom, but for equity and the “greater good”. Western culture, Christianity, meritocracy, moral objectivity, personal liberty and appeals to reason will be demonized as relics of the old world – Monstrous constructs that prevented civilization from attaining true “oneness”. None of this will be true, of course. The majority of wars are triggered by globalist interests, not nationalists, and the political left is a gaggle of insane zealots hellbent on destroying the west. But, as they say, history is written by the victors. Many conservatives and liberty advocates still don’t understand that we are in the middle of a 4th Generation conflict. It’s not a political or ideological disagreement, it’s a war; a guerrilla war in which the enemy hides behind civilian status and the legal apparatus. They use our moral code and our constitutional provisions against us. They find loopholes in the governmental structure and exploit those weaknesses. They turn our society into a living suicide bomb, all while claiming they hold a position of ethical superiority. It has happened before… If you get the chance I highly recommend readers check out the in-depth investigative analysis of professor and economist Antony Sutton; specifically his book ‘Wall Street And The Bolshevik Revolution’. In it he describes the historical timeline of how Trotsky and Lenin were funded and aided by the elites of the era. The key leaders of the Marxist takeover of Russia could not have done what they did without the help of American and European globalists. The greater takeaway from Sutton’s revelation is not so much what happened in the past, but what is happening NOW and how it is similar. The reality of a hidden hand behind the Bolshevik Revolution might sound rather familiar – Today’s DOGE audits have exposed massive bureaucratic manipulation schemes through agencies like USAID to instigate political and social change in America and in foreign nations. These schemes involve vast sums of taxpayer subsidies cycling through globalist controlled NGOs that then use the free cash to push multiculturalism, LGBT propaganda and color revolution. The agenda to create a one world system and erase traditional western principles is ongoing, handed down from one generation of globalists to the next in a parasitic lineage. The people behind it are moral relativists and Luciferians (they worship themselves and desire to become godlike). They pursue their goals with the fervor of a religious cult. They believe in what they are doing utterly; with as much conviction as you or I hold in our fight for freedom and accountability. In America the process is beginning to parallel the leftist movements that ended with Marxist terrorism in Europe and the eventual rise of fascism. After WWI, leftists engaged in a hurricane of disruption tactics including industrial sabotage, mob intimidation, politically motivated worker strikes, terror attacks, bombings, assassinations, etc. Modern day academics try to paint these tactics as heroic, or at the very least they claim that the actions of Marxists had nothing to do with the European embrace of fascism. This is a lie. It was, in fact, the constant psychological attacks, economic attacks and direct attacks by far-left groups that made fascism so appealing to common Europeans. Ernst Thalmann, the Stalin-backed leader of the far-left during the last days of Weimar Germany, came to the conclusion that the moderate left was a greater threat than the Nazis. The communists viewed centrist liberals as an impediment to their efforts, much like the woke leftist of today treat moderates as heretics instead of allies. They alienated everybody and made everyone want to work with the fascists. Of course, Adolph Hitler and Benito Mussolini BOTH openly venerated Karl Marx and his socialist system of governance. Fascism was nothing more than a different flavor of leftist tyranny posing as a solution to leftist tyranny. But for Europeans tired after years of societal division and constant unrest, the fascist message of order was enticing. Antony Sutton outlines this dichotomy and how globalists helped the Nazis rise to power in his book ‘Wall Street And The Rise Of The Third Reich’. In other words, the globalists created a Marxist terror campaign across Europe and then used it to drive the public into the arms of another socialist empire in the form of The Third Reich. In Germany, people supported fascism because they sought to drive out and eliminate the social rot created by Bolshevik relativism (very similar to the rot we see in America today). For instance, sexual degeneracy was rampant in Germany after WWI. The very first transgender clinic was founded in Berlin in 1919. The Marxists lobbied for the legalization of abortion in order to garner more female support. The rise of the “sexual reformation” was initiated and the 1920s equivalent of the “Gay Pride” movement was born. Pedophiles began to creep out of the woodwork – The concept of underage prostitution and “rent boys” was a notable problem in Berlin. Questions of personal liberty are fair to argue. But without moderation, psycho-sexual obsessions embraced on a large scale can trigger social collapse. The true intent of any sexual reformation is to normalize cultural and psychological outliers. Weimar Germany in the 1920s was very much like America in the 2020s in this way. Then there was hyperinflation, economic hardship and vying political factions that drove fear into common Germans. The fascists offered a clear vision, they offered economic prosperity, they offered domestic peace, they offered an end to the morally bankrupt madness of the left, and the public jumped at the chance. It was not a good choice, but it was better to them than allowing a communist takeover. The globalists have a tendency to attack a target population from two sides, using chaos they control, and then order they control. Marxism plays the role of chaos, and fascism plays the role of order. Most of us are familiar with the idea of the Hegelian Dialectic. However, I would argue that the situation is much more complex today than it has ever been. There is only one true option; order is the obvious choice. Leftists and globalists must be removed from power. But how do we avoid doing what the Germans did? How do we remove the leftist threat without diving headfirst into our own brand of totalitarianism? It might not be possible. As I warned in my article ‘Terror Attacks Kick Off In 2025 – It’s Only Going To Get Worse So Be Prepared’, published in January, there is now a rising tide of leftist sabotage. Today, activists across the country are using property destruction for intimidation. It’s not going to stop there. This is just the first phase. There’s the judicial overreach by activist judges to thwart any cuts to the bureaucracy, and the attempts to stop deportations of illegals. There’s steady online threats of assassination and calls for alliances with foreign adversaries and terror groups. Just be ready for bombings, shootings and the rampaging mobs because that’s all coming this summer, I have no doubt. The risk of martial law being declared is very high if things go the way I suspect they will go, and a majority of the US public will applaud the idea. Donald Trump has taken measures to follow through on every one of his campaign promises so far and I believe that this has earned him the benefit of the doubt. However, if he did call for martial law under the circumstances I describe to expedite matters, conservatives would be falling into a classic government power trap. Once that door is opened it will be hard to reverse matters, and there’s no guarantee that the right wing will be in control of the machine as it shifts from checks and balances into a streamlined top down autocracy. We almost fell off that cliff under the Biden Administration during covid and it’s a miracle the country is still in one piece. The scary thing is, beyond the hypothetical risks involved, it’s difficult to argue that martial law is unreasonable. The leftists are making it very hard for us to want to fight for their liberty, and frankly most conservatives would not care if they were shipped off to an isolated island somewhere to cannibalize each other. If you examine how these activists rationalize their violence on social media, one can only conclude that they need to be locked up or booted out of the country. They’re not redeemable. Their actions are designed to elicit a call of force from conservatives. Then the activists rush to to the global stage and scream “You see! The right wingers really are the fascists we said they were!” The mere act of applying law and order becomes “tyranny” by the definition of the progressives. In the meantime, a lot of libertarians are still out there in the wilderness searching for a perfect solution in which no one’s rights are stepped on and all viewpoints are respected. I’ve accepted that this is not going to happen. There is no silver bullet, no magically pure society in which everyone leaves everyone else alone. In a war, someone’s rights are going out the window. It’s a zero sum game for conservatives because the more we accommodate the political left and treat them like fellow citizens rather than an enemy insurgency, the more the US will degrade into chaos. If we respond to them as enemies, crushing them like the bugs they are, then we become the bad guys and potentially welcome in a level of government power that could hurt us all in the end. My solution is an ugly one and it’s something that most conservative commentators don’t want to touch with a ten foot pole: Instead of relying on government power to stop the political left and the globalists, common Americans should organize and handle the problem independently. This removes the danger of government overreach and constitutional trespass. The average American is not limited by the constitution, the government is. We don’t have to respect the legal rights of NGOs. We don’t have to give leeway to leftist rioters because we’re afraid of political optics. We don’t have to let globalists operate in the US with impunity and without fear. Keep in mind that the US was NOT founded as a libertine nation where anything goes. The Founders believed in revolution against tyranny, not revolution against morality. They believed in freedom, as long as it’s freedom WITH responsibility. They believed in rules and order, not anarchy. There’s no way on Earth they would have tolerated leftist and globalist machinations. Neither should we. When we do act, we have to make sure we don’t create a governmental Golem that ultimately turns on us. * * * If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch. Learn more about it HERE. * * * Best sellers at ZH Store: IQ Biologix Colostrum (25% IgG from first milking of grassfed cows) IQ Astaxanthin Ultimate Antioxidant (6,000x stronger than vitamin C) ZeroHedge Multitool (Extremely solid, very sharp, comes with ZH Logo belt pouch) Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife (Made in the USA from carbon steel) Click picture, check out knife... Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 23:25
China Ends Military Drills With 'Simulated Attacks' On Taiwan Ports, Energy Sites
1743649200 from ZEROHEDGE
China Ends Military Drills With 'Simulated Attacks' On Taiwan Ports, Energy Sites China's military on Wednesday announced the completion of major war drills aimed at Taiwan, and which included a 'live fire' portion - as well as the patrols of some 20 naval ships off Taiwan's coast. The PLA's Eastern Theater Command revealed that the second day involved simulated strikes on key ports and energy sites of the self-ruled island and US ally. A PLA spokesman had described drills which "test the troops' capabilities" in areas such as "blockade and control, and precision strikes on key targets." The Chinese military further said it conducted "long-range live-fire drills". China's Shandong aircraft carrier was also spotted in regional waters testing its ability to "blockade" Taiwan, as part of the exercises dubbed "Strait Thunder-2025A". Beijing's foreign ministry meanwhile on Wednesday declared the "punishment will not stop" if Taiwan leaders don't halt their 'separatist' rhetoric. Additional to the naval assets at sea, some 50 jets were involved in the drills, the biggest since early last year - to which Taiwan's military responded by dispatching its own aircraft and ships, and land-based missile systems on coastal areas. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense listed out the following Chinese military weaponry which was moved near Taiwan by early afternoon on the first day of the exercise: 71 sorties by military aircraft and drones, 21 navy ships ranged around the island, and the aforementioned Shandong carrier which was spotted about 220 nautical miles east of Taiwan The Eastern Theatre Command simultaneous to all of this had issued a brief video calling Lai a "parasite" in English, also depicting him as a green bug dangled by chopsticks over a burning Taiwan. Taiwan officials blasted the drills as "reckless" and "irresponsible". Taiwan's military subsequently elevated its readiness level to ensure China does not "turn drills into combat" and "launch a sudden attack on us." Via Marine Insight China's Foreign Ministry had at the week's start called out Washington's role in the Taiwan tensions, slamming US’ use of "China threat" rhetoric which is bent on provoking confrontation, but which will end in regional countries being used as "cannon fodder" for US hegemony - according to a statement. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 23:00
Trump's Reconfiguration Of Global Conflict: What It Means For Asia And Europe
1743647700 from ZEROHEDGE
Trump's Reconfiguration Of Global Conflict: What It Means For Asia And Europe Authored by Joseph Yizheng Lian via The Epoch Times, Two months into his second term, President Donald Trump was accused by some politicians in the West of abandoning Washington’s longstanding allies as a result of his stance on the war in Ukraine. But one doesn’t have to look very far back in history to note that a similar act of “unfriending” had occurred from continental Europe and wasn’t unjustified. In 1988, the late British Prime Minister Lady Margaret Thatcher, speaking at the College of Europe in Bruges, Belgium, advised her audience thus: “We must strive to maintain the United States’ commitment to Europe’s defence. And that means recognising the burden on their resources of the world role they undertake and their point that their allies should bear the full part of the defence of freedom, particularly as Europe grows wealthier.” Unfortunately, those mild words of the Iron Lady fell on deaf ears. Eleven years later, her tone had changed into one of disdain and spite, when in a Conservative Party conference in Blackpool she shockingly declared, “In my lifetime all the problems have come from mainland Europe, and all the solutions have come from the English-speaking nations across the world.” Between Bruges and Blackpool, Thatcher morphed from a 30-year supporter of European integration into a fierce opponent. She decried the “British malaise”—a term used by Conservative politician and historian Sir Ian Gilmour in his 1969 book “The Body Politic”—to characterize the economic stagnation, the social decline, and the sense of futility and hopelessness that seemed to pervade British society. Thatcher abhorred the European welfare state, criticized intransigent unionism, and loathed the power wielded by unelected Brussels bureaucrats, who had virtually forgotten NATO by the mid-1990s, even though Europe had grown rich. She won her battle posthumously, in 2020 (BREXIT). U.S. President Ronald Reagan and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher pose for photographers on the patio outside the Oval Office in Washington on July 17, 1987. Mike Sargent/AFP via Getty Images Since then, primarily by default, Britain has gone out of Europe and built partnerships in the Indo–Pacific, a region that it is historically familiar with, signed bilateral free trade agreements Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and is in talks for new ones with the United States and India. The UK has recently gained membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or CPTPP. The new Labour government has not tried to bend back the arc. The United States is on a similar trajectory. Trump also spurns Big Government and bureaucratic multinational agencies. Like Thatcher almost 40 years ago—but much more vehemently—he has criticized other NATO countries for spending far too little on defense—a constant gripe of U.S. presidents, especially Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan. Trump’s associates readily criticized certain European countries for abandoning basic Western values, such as adopting free speech, abolishing secure national borders, and letting in gangsters and fanatical Jihadis who unleash terrorist attacks on innocent citizens. Trump also thinks all these are happening in the United States. The Russia–Ukraine war has caused rifts between Trump and other NATO members. He wants the war to end so that Washington can “pivot” to the Indo–Pacific to squarely face the “pacing threat” of communist China, which he, since his first term, has rightly regarded as America’s major adversary. So, almost simultaneously, the two major English-speaking countries, the United States and the UK, are extricating themselves from entanglements in Europe and reaching out to Asia. Their “leaving Europe to enter Asia” is going full circle from the time when Japan’s most famous 19th century reformist, Fukuzawa Yukichi, advocated the opposite, “leaving Asia to enter Europe” (1885), under very different circumstances. If U.S. Commodore Matthew Perry’s arrival in Tokugawa Japan in 1853 and World War II marked the first and second historic coming of America to Asia, respectively, then the “Trump pivot” may well be the third. It could add enormously to the prosperity in Indo–Pacific Ex-China, for two reasons. First, as the U.S.–China decoupling continues, much American money leaving China will go into other Indo–Pacific economies. Second, when greater American military might, coupled with increased defense spending and capabilities in East Asian countries, is realized under Trump’s pressures, it will be deployed to contain the Chinese regime and achieve greater regional stability, and new investment money will arrive with more confidence. But then what about Europe, which the United States and perhaps Britain are leaving behind? It will do fine, but in a previously unexpected way. This will be the scenario: Trump 2.0 will continue to goad Europe to pony up for its own defense, necessarily at the expense of its welfare state, climate policy, and open borders, and damage the transatlantic relationship if it must. Trump will be much maligned in the process. For example, a recent BBC article accused the U.S. president of “blow[ing] up the world order.” But that is sheer Eurocentrism, because Trump is merely resetting Washington’s relationship with Europe and Europe is not the whole world. In fact, there are good signs that Europe is reacting to Trump in a healthy way; for example, the newly elected German leader has decided that Germany must spend huge amounts in upgrading its military, notwithstanding that it necessarily will have to cut welfare spending and retune its growth model. Expectedly, when Europe is strong and wholesome again, Trump will be gone from the stage and his successors will be able to mend fences with all obstacles removed. At that point, the world will still be essentially bipolar: the open society camp versus the authoritarian-or-worse camp. There will be two main theaters where the conflict between the two camps will be played out. First is Asia, in which the United States—rid of its European baggage and in some kind of alliance with Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia—will face off against the Chinese regime. The mightiest power on Earth will try to roll back and contain the most dangerous. Next is Europe, where a reformed and repowered European Union will take on Russia. A second-rate power will try to keep a third-rate one in check. It will be a much more rational conflict configuration and manageable division of labor for the West than it is now. Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 22:35
Futures Tumble As President Trump Delivers "Declaration Of Economic Independence"
1743640800 from ZEROHEDGE
Futures Tumble As President Trump Delivers "Declaration Of Economic Independence" Update (1630ET): “Well we have some very, very good news today,” Trump began his address exclaiming that “This is Liberation Day.” “April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed and the day that we began to make America wealthy again,” Trump says. “For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike. American steel workers, auto workers, farmers and skilled craftsmen -- we have a lot of them here with us today. They really suffered gravely.” “In a few moments, I will sign a historic Executive Order, reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world. Reciprocal. That means they do it to us and we do it to them. Very simple. Can’t get any simpler than that.” Trump lays out his theory that tariffs will bring back a “golden age” for the US, a phrase he also used in his inaugural address: “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country, and you see it happening already. We will supercharge our domestic industrial base.” Trump says the reciprocal tariffs will bring “stronger competition and lower prices for consumers” in the US. Finally, Trump announces his tariff plan details as a "Declaration Of Economic Independence" Specifically, Trump announced a baseline tariff rate of 10% for all countries (below the 15% consensus and 20% worst case) beginning April 5th. Trump confirmed the 25% tariff on all auto imports. BUT, specific reciprocal tariffs for 'bad actors' starting on April 9th. Additionally, Trump said they will not be full reciprocal tariffs, then held a chart up showing the individual nation (trade-weighted average) tariff levels: Here is the full list: Here are some specifics: China: 34% (which is on top of the current 20% tariff, meaning a total 54% tariff) EU: 20% Japan: 24% UK: 10% South Korea: 25% Thailand: 36% Switzerland: 31% Taiwan: 32% Malaysia: 24% Here are the hardest hit nations: Iraq 39% Mauritius 40% Syria 41% Falkland Islands 41% Vietnam: 46% Madagascar 47% Laos 48% Cambodia 49% Lesotho 50% Saint Pierre & Miquelon 50% Mexico and Canada are not on the list as US will continue to exempt USMCA-compliant goods. For Canada and Mexico, the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA orders remain in effect, and are unaffected by this order. This means USMCA compliant goods will continue to see a 0% tariff, non-USMCA compliant goods will see a 25% tariff, and non-USMCA compliant energy and potash will see a 10% tariff. In the event the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA orders are terminated, USMCA compliant goods would continue to receive preferential treatment, while non-USMCA compliant goods would be subject to a 12% reciprocal tariff. The Loonie and the Peso rallied on the news... Some goods will not be subject to the Reciprocal Tariff. These include: (1) articles subject to 50 USC 1702(b); (2) steel/aluminum articles and autos/auto parts already subject to Section 232 tariffs; (3) copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber articles; (4) all articles that may become subject to future Section 232 tariffs; (5) bullion; and (6) energy and other certain minerals that are not available in the United States. Initially markets heard Trump's comments as 'better than expected' and futures spiked on the news, but then as he showed the chart of specific tariffs, futures plunged... Treasury yields also tumbled, erasing the day's spike higher... “If you want your tariff rate to be zero, then you build your product right here in America, because there is no tariff if you build your plant, your product in America,” Trump said, concluding: “Likewise to all of the foreign presidents, prime ministers, kings, queens, ambassadors and everyone else who will soon be calling to ask for exemptions from these tariffs, I say terminate your own tariffs, drop your barriers, don’t manipulate your currencies." The White House issued a full Fact Sheet here... “These tariffs will remain in effect until such a time as President Trump determines that the threat posed by the trade deficit and underlying nonreciprocal treatment is satisfied, resolved, or mitigated.” And cue the negotiations... Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson, suggests this is the opening salvo for negotiations and the question is how much economic pain Trump is willing to tolerate: “Eye-watering tariffs on a country-by-country basis scream ‘negotiation tactic,’ which will keep markets on edge for the foreseeable future. Fortunately, this means there’s substantial room for lower tariffs from here, albeit with a 10% baseline in place. We’ve seen the administration have a surprisingly high tolerance for market pain, now the big question is how much tolerance it has for true economic pain as negotiations unfold.” Treasury Secretary Bessent appeared on Bloomberg TV with a simple message to the world: Don’t panic, don’t retaliate “As long as you don’t retaliate, this is the high end of the number,” he says. * * * Best sellers at ZH Store: IQ Biologix Colostrum (25% IgG from first milking of grassfed cows) IQ Astaxanthin Ultimate Antioxidant (6,000x stronger than vitamin C) ZeroHedge Multitool (Extremely solid, very sharp, comes with ZH Logo belt pouch) Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife (Made in the USA from carbon steel) Click picture, check out knife... * * * "This is the moment... this is the time..." Trump's Jekyll & Hyde tariff-ing plans are finally to be announced ("We are going to be very nice by comparison to what they were" vs “We’ve been taken advantage of for 40 years, maybe more, and it’s just not going to happen anymore.") As Trump discusses reciprocal tariffs (and the legacy media claims he is 'punishing allies') keep this chart in mind - does that seem like 'free trade'? The three main things to watch for when Trump starts speaking are as follows (h/t Goldman Sachs' Brian Garrett) What is the full list of countries included in the measures (19 is bogey) What is the magnitude for average reciprocal tariff (GS econ expects avg 15% when weighted by US imports – this would be a negative surprise) Confirmation of the planned timeline for implementation (the shorter the period, the more hawkish the read thru - and for now 'immediate effect' is expected) Watch President Trump deliver his remarks in his 'Make America Wealth Again' event and answer questions here (due to start at 1600ET): * * * Update (0805ET): As the clock ticks down to today's 4pm announcement of "across the board" tariffs on a subset of nations, speculation about the size and scope of the new rules is rife with many nations already threatening "proportionate" responses: USTR reportedly prepares a new tariff option for US President Trump which is "an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option", according to WSJ. US President Trump's tariff plans are "coming down to the wire" with his team reportedly still finalising the size and scope of the new levies, according to Bloomberg. US Treasury Secretary Bessent told lawmakers that Wednesday's tariffs are a 'cap', according to a CNBC reporter cited by Reuters. On UK-US tariffs, "Sounds like any hopes of a last-ditch concession from Donald Trump ahead of his tariffs announcement are fading", according to Times' Swinford; although a deal could be signed as soon as next week "Keir Starmer is not planning to speak to him today, but there are hopes that the economic deal giving Britain a carve-out can be signed as soon as next week. Sources talking about 'days or weeks'" "But in truth No 10 doesn't know what Trump is planning or when concessions could be made. All deeply uncertain this morning". Canada is to avoid counter-tariffs that risk Canadian jobs and price hikes and it won't impose retaliation tariffs on most US food and other basic necessities, according to the Globe and Mail citing two federal trade advisers. Thai Commerce Ministry said Thai semiconductors may face 25% US tariffs and noted that Thai tariffs are 11% higher than US tariffs, while it added Thailand may see an impact of USD 7bln-8bln from US reciprocal tariffs but announced it will increase imports of US goods and plans tariff cuts for US products. French Industry Minister reaffirms that Europe will respond to Trump tariffs in a proportionate manner; says Europe must show strength and be less naive The irony, of course, is that if Trump unveils 'reciprocal' tariffs - mirroring the tariffs being put on US exports - any retaliatory response by a foreign nation cannot be proportionate by its nature. Any response is escalatory as the US is merely 'catching up' to the tariffs being put on its own goods. Bloomberg reports that Trump is considering three options: 1) a blanket 20% tariff on all imports; 2) a tiered system with three different rate levels; 3) a country-by-country rate model. White House spokesperson Leavitt said new duties are effective immediately which feels less ideal vs a delayed start (no time for negotiations). * * * Update (8:45pm ET): With just hours to go until Trump's "Liberation day" announcement, things remain... fluid. Bloomberg reports that Trump’s deliberations over his plans to impose reciprocal tariffs are coming down to the wire, with his team said to be still finalizing the size and scope of the new levies he is slated to unveil on Wednesday afternoon. As a reminder, Peter Navarro said that Trump wants to raise $700 billion annually in tariff revenue. In meetings on Tuesday, Trump’s team continued to hash out their options ahead of a Rose Garden event scheduled to begin as US markets close at 4 p.m. on Wednesday. The White House has not reached a firm decision on their tariff plan, even though Trump himself said earlier in the week that he had “settled” on an approach. Several proposals are said to be under consideration, including a tiered tariff system with a set of flat rates for countries, as well as a more customized reciprocal plan. Under the first option, countries would see their goods face levies at either a 10% or 20% rate depending on their tariff and non-tariff barriers on US goods. Under the two-tiered approach, the highest levies would be applied to the countries perceived as the biggest offenders, both in terms of true tariffs as well as easily quantifiable non-tariff measures that act to deter US imports. Trump’s White House this week has complained about the trade practices of the EU, Japan, India and Canada, for example. Another approach would see the US applying individualized reciprocal rates, tailored to countries based on their existing levies and non-tariff barriers. This approach was publicly signaled for weeks but some recent deliberations suggest it’s no longer the main focus. There’s also been discussion of a return to Trump’s original proposal: a flat global tariff, which would apply evenly to trillions of imports. And the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was considering a more targeted plan that would apply a tariff of less than 20% to a narrower section of countries. With less than 24 hours to go until Trump’s announcement, companies, countries and the lobbyists paid to influence the president’s agenda tried to find out final details of the plan, only to learn there aren't any final details yet. Amid the continuing barrage of trial balloons, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump aides were studying a more targeted option, while Fox News said Tuesday that Trump was also still considering a flat 20% global tariff. Amid all the speculation, the White House on Tuesday stayed silent on the details of Trump’s plan, ahead of the president’s formal announcement, while Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday that Trump was “with his trade and tariff team right now perfecting it to make sure this is a perfect deal for the American people and the American worker.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers that the tariffs would be a cap. reflecting the highest levels they’ll go, with countries then able to take steps to bring rates down, Representative Kevin Hern, an Oklahoma Republican, told CNBC. Earlier Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the tariffs would take immediate effect but that Trump was open to subsequent negotiation. “Certainly, the president is always up to take a phone call, always up for a good negotiation,” she said. The late-hour movement signaled that the scope and details of the long-promised announcement are shifting even as the pageantry of the event — dubbed a “Make America Wealthy Again” celebration — comes into focus. Trump said Monday he had made a decision “actually a long time ago,” but didn’t reveal it. Leavitt reiterated that claim, though the White House declined to weigh in on various proposals said to be under consideration. A spokesman did not immediately reply to requests for further comment Tuesday. Other key questions swirl, like the fate of tariffs already applied to China, Canada and Mexico, and clawed back partially for the latter two. The White House has not said whether those would be replaced by Trump’s Wednesday announcement, or whether his move to exempt goods traded under the continental trade pact might also be extended somehow to the new levies. The president has also promised coming tariffs on key sectors including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber. * * * * * There is just over 24 hours left until President Trump unveils the specifics of his "Liberation day" from global trade barriers at 3pm on Wednesday, and with markets obsessing over what the president will and will not say, we are starting a rolling blog which will be updated for all major developments. We begin with the known-knowns ahead of tomorrow's big reveal: Reciprocal Tariffs – President Trump said on Sunday that the reciprocal tariffs he is set to announce will include all nations, not just a smaller group of 10-15 countries with the largest trade imbalances. The White House has yet to outline what tariffs are coming up, how these will be calculated or what countries will need to do to secure exemptions. The President also mentioned that these tariffs will account for other countries’ non-tariff barriers, though he has also not went into detail on how these calculations will be conducted. Regarding exemptions, President Trump said in an interview with Newsmax that he plans to limit exceptions – though the mention of potentially giving a lot of countries “breaks” last Monday at the White House has led to a steam of talks with the US (EU, India among the names of countries mentioned) regarding concessions. One potential twist is that overnight we got a USTR trade barrier report (not the official tariffs but its lists hundred of barriers to US exports) where this part stands out: “the USTR report did not specify VATs as trade barriers in its discussion of EU policies, focusing instead on digital services taxes and the bloc's new carbon border adjustment mechanism.” (RTRS) According to Goldman, goal posts have moved rapidly to 15%+ on EU tariffs and yesterday's discussions were around the rather substantial tail risk that reciprocal VAT tariffs would mean (38%). Comments from Trump suggest a lighter touch on tariffs although without context it’s unclear what this might mean. Goldman concludes that "with risk premia having been built up the default direction will be a relief rally/vol compression (the sustainability of which will be more about US economy)." Automobile Tariffs – As per the White House Fact Sheet, the 25% tariff will be applied to imported passenger vehicles (sedans, SUVs, crossovers, minivans, cargo vans) and light trucks, as well as key automobile parts (engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components), with processes to expand tariffs on additional parts if necessary. Importers of automobiles under the USMCA will be given the opportunity to certify their U.S. content and systems will be implemented such that the 25% tariff will only apply to the value of their non-U.S. content. Tariffs on vehicles are set to take effect on 3Apr and certain auto parts no later than 3May. Tariffs on countries importing Venuzuelan Oil – President Trump has issued an executive order declaring that any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% tariff on trades with the U.S., and also extended a deadline (27 May) for Chevron to wind down operations. China, Spain, Brazil, Turkey, India, Italy, Cuba are among the countries that could be affected by this. In particular, China is Venezuela’s largest oil buyer (~55%). Goldman's research desk highlights that this will pose a significant risk for China – if this was to materialize, it will raise the total US effective tariff rate on China close to 60%. Sectoral Tariffs – President Trump also plans to impose tax additional tariffs to target specific industries including pharmaceutical drugs, copper and lumber. LATEST NEWS: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said President Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs at 15:00EDT/20:00BST on Wednesday. White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated there will be a Rose Garden event on Wednesday for the Trump tariff plan and that Trump is committed to sectoral tariffs. White House spokesperson said no exemptions at this time when asked about tariff exemptions for farmers and any country that has treated the US unfairly should expect to receive a tariff. White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% (prev. touted 15%) on at least most imports to the United States, according to WaPo sources. Several options are on the table and no final decision has been made. One option would raise import duties on products from virtually every country, rejecting more targeted approaches. If combined with additional tariffs on sectors such as automobile and pharmaceutical imports, raise more than USD 6tln. Administration officials are also discussing using this revenue to finance a tax rebate or dividend payment to most Americans; planning is "highly preliminary". The White House is also still considering an order that would apply a different tariff rate to individual countries. US President Trump said we will see tariff details maybe Tuesday night or on Wednesday which are going to be nice in comparison to other countries and in some cases, they may be substantially lower. Trump also stated that many countries have been looting the US and they will stop that on April 2nd, as well as noted there will be investments worth USD 5tln in the US. Furthermore, he stated that TikTok is not tied to a larger tariff deal but could be. US President Trump is said to be still deciding which plan he will take for reciprocal tariffs and has been presented with "multiple" tariff plans, according to administration sources cited by FBN's Lawrence, while sources said Trump will likely not make the decision on which plan until right before April 2nd or on that morning. Reminder: Weekend reports suggested US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for Liberation Day’ on April 2nd and reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports, according to Washington Post. It was also noted that the option viewed as most likely, publicly outlined by Treasury Secretary Bessent this month, would set tariffs on products from the 15% of countries the administration deems the worst US trading partners which account for almost 90% of imports. Europe: EU is mulling targeting big US tech firms in response to Trump tariffs, via WaPo citing sources/officials; one official suggested that the bloc could unite on "some partial measures against American services". France is reportedly pushing for a tougher response which includes digital services. Other nations such as Italy remain opposed believing it will only cause further US escalation. "European officials cautioned that there is no agreed-on hit list of digital services." "European officials concede that measures against companies like Google (GOOGL) or Meta (META) could escalate the trade war, but they say Trump has shifted the goalposts." "European officials are also discussing possible trade concessions"; could be willing to reverse some of the countermeasures announced after the US' aluminium/steel tariffs. WaPo reminds us that the bloc has already signalled a willingness to reduce the 10% tariff on US autos and increase the purchase of US-made LNG. MORGAN STANLEY ON THE RECIPROCITY PRINCIPLE (KEY TAKEAWAYS) Tariffs appear likely to head higher, on a number of trading partners: The Trump administration said it plans to increase tariff levels after taking into account three key factors to rectify what it perceives as unfair trade relationships: 1) product-level tariff differentials; 2) VAT differentials; and 3) a subjective "unfair trading practices." We expect that the numbers revealed as a product of that assessment on April 2 will likely be a maximalist starting point, rather than ending point, for tariff levels. April 2 should provide some clarity on the path, but we expect that not all of our questions will be answered by then: Two principles guide our rationale: The comprehensive review promised by the president is broad and complex, requiring months of investigation on a product-by-product basis, and we expect negotiations can potentially reduce levels from the stated starting point when this review concludes. Hence, April 2 is more likely a starting point than an ending point for implementation. Key products in the EU, as well as broader Chinese imports, are likely to see increases...: When evaluating imports across the country-level criteria the administration has laid out as well as where the largest tariff differentials are, certain sectors stand out in particular, like EU autos. ...While Mexico, Canada, and certain products from countries in the EU appear more likely to avoid tariffs through negotiation. We see potential for more negotiation with countries that score low across the metrics that the administration has cited as important inputs to that April 2 evaluation, as well as those that Trump has signaled a willingness to negotiate with or countries for which tariffs are explicitly tied to a policy goal (like immigration/fentanyl). Importantly, Morgan Stanley has low conviction in this path, and sees several plausible alternatives. More aggressive, and faster, tariff implementation is possible, as well as the inverse, given the president's wide discretion and authority on this matter. Mapping out current & expected tariffs on two vectors: relative level of conviction, and expected duration/potential for an off-ramp Morgan Stanley incorporates "reciprocal tariffs" into that base case: The administration has stated it plans to review tariff rates on a country-by-country basis, taking into account a variety of other trade-related factors (some more subjective than others), culminating in an aggregate number (or tariff level) that Commerce Secretary Lutnick intends to present to the president April 1, to be publicly released on April 2. This to us signals that the administration is planning to engage in a broad-based retooling of its trading relationships, grounded in matching tariff rates but incorporating a number of other factors like existing trade deficit, VAT differentials, and non-tariff barriers to trade (including subsidies). Hence, while the short-term policy goals might align with one of the two objectives we lay out, undertaking a country-by-country review of existing trade relationships grounded in tariff reciprocity reflects, in our view, a longer-term commitment to de-risking and retooling trade policy. Various third parties have assessed how high tariffs could go as a result of this review: the Yale Budget Lab, for example, sees the policy change resulting in an incremental 13ppt hike to tariffs on China vs. 16ppt on Mexico and 17ppt on India. Given the relatively high VAT in Europe, the tariff rate goes up by even more in the UK, Denmark/Sweden, and Hungary: 20ppt, 25ppt, and 27ppt, respectively. More in the full Morgan Stanley reciprocity analysis available here to pro subs. JPM TARIFF SCENARIO ANALYSIS 10% TARIFF – assuming a 10% blanket tariff that also cancels/replaces Can/Mexico tariffs but not China: SPX +2 - +2.5%. 10Y yield higher by ~10bps. EUR/USD falls to 1.06 – 1.07 (currently 1.08). 25% TARIFF – SPX falls 1.25% - 1.75%. 10Y yield declines 12-14bps. EUR/USD lower as USD behaves as a safety haven, with EUR/USD falling to 1.03 – 1.05 35% TARIFF – SPX falls 2% - 3%. 10Y yield falls 20bps. EUR/USD falls to 1.01 – 1.03. On EU sectors vs. tariffs, JPM expect: EU Pharma: Potential US tariffs expected to have a manageable impact, though many questions remain unanswered around key details. Global Spirits: Financial impact likely to be substantial, ranging JPME 8-48% on annual EBIT. Believe mitigation through pricing will be limited, given sector has already derated YTD < asymmetric risk rewards if tariffs delayed/scrapped. EU Autos: If tariffs go ahead, on avg. c. 25% earnings cut to its FY25 estimates for German OEMs and Stellantis. JPM add this is the lower bound of impact. Overall, JPM remain tactically bearish. Market Impact WHAT DOES A GOOD OUTCOME LOOK LIKE – A low (10% or less) blanket tariff that does not include VAT with a stated willingness to discuss sectoral tariffs which include 25% on aluminum/steel, 25% on Autos, 200% on Champagne/wine from the EU, and potentially 25% on Chips and Pharmaceuticals. Further, avoiding tariffs on shipping vessels would be a positive. WHAT DOES A BAD OUTCOME LOOK LIKE – A higher than expected blanket tariff, which includes VAT, plus additional sectoral tariffs. Further, any bans on sales or the implementation of fines/tariffs on shipping vessels would be a materially worse outcome, e.g., a full ban on chip sales to China. According to Bloomberg, NVDA received ~17% of its FY24 revenue from China. Likely Tariff Levels (per JPMorgan) CANADA / MEXICO – JPM does not think that we see additional tariffs mentioned, instead sticking with the 25% tariffs that were delayed. CHINA – currently, the tariff level is 20% but given that China consumes Venezuelan oil, that adds another 25%. A deal on TikTok could reduce these levels, but that announcement may be on/before the current April 5 deadline to sell or restrict TikTok. EU – while Trump had mentioned 25%, Bloomberg reported last week that the EU planned concessions for Trump so this could mean a lower rate in the 10% - 15% range. JAPAN – given the willingness to negotiation and to add further investment in the US, it seems possible that Japan receives a lower rate, perhaps lower than the EU, say 10%. JPM's proposed Monetization Menu: Country-Level: we look at Australia, Japan, and the UK as being relative safety havens. China may work, too, given the potential to add fiscal stimulus but that is a lower conviction long. US Sector Level: Energy and Utilities (ex-AI plays) are the two best longs and look for Lower-Income Discretionary and higher beta TMT plays as being among the more consensus shorts. Separately, parts of Fins (GSIBs, Insurance, Payment Processors) could be safety havens. FICC: Look for Credit to outperform Equities on the move lower. We like precious metals, crude, and natgas as longs. Overall, JPM remain tactically bearish: "Policy uncertainty is the dominant factor in the markets and that neither the Trump Put nor Fed Put activate in the near-term." Further, they see downward pressure on the soft economic data though hard data is likely to remain resilient, potentially putting a floor on the next US downdraft. That said, one potential event that could break the bearish outlook is the announcement of a trade deal, or framework of one, with a G7 country ahead of the announcement, e.g. US/UK deal could allow the market to look through tariffs on places such as the EU and/or Japan. More in the full JPMorgan secnario analysis available here to pro subs. WEEKEND HEADLINES US Broader Tariffs US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2nd and reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports, according to Washington Post. It was also noted that the option viewed as most likely, publicly outlined by Treasury Secretary Bessent this month, would set tariffs on products from the 15% of countries the administration deems the worst US trading partners which account for almost 90% of imports. US President Trump said he will hit essentially all countries that they're talking about with tariffs this week and commented that there will be a deal on TikTok before the deadline, according to Reuters. US President Trump’s closest allies including Vice President Vance, Chief of Staff Wiles and cabinet officials have privately indicated they are unsure exactly what President Trump will do during the April 2nd announcement of global tariffs, according to Politico. US Auto Tariffs US President Trump’s recent 25% auto tariff announcement made no mention of USMCA trade deal side letters shielding Canada and Mexico from potential auto tariffs which showed Canada and Mexico were each granted annual duty-free import quotas of 2.6mln cars and unlimited light trucks if Trump imposed global tariffs. Furthermore, Canada said it fully expects the US to honor the 2018 tariff pledges and it reserves the right to take retaliatory measures, while Mexico is evaluating the legal implications of the agreement on Trump's ‘Section 232’ auto tariff probe. US President Trump’s Trade Adviser Navarro said auto tariffs will raise about $100BN and the other tariffs are to raise about $600BN a year, according to a Fox interview. UK UK PM Starmer spoke with US President Trump on Sunday evening in which they discussed productive negotiations between their respective teams on a UK-US economic prosperity deal and agreed that these will continue at pace this week. It was also reported that UK Home Secretary Cooper refused to rule out retaliating to US tariffs on cars and steel, according to Bloomberg. France French Ministry of Foreign Trade said France and Europe will defend their businesses, consumers and values, while it added that US interference in the inclusion policies of French companies is unacceptable. French Commerce Minister reiterated that France would implement reciprocal tariffs if the US goes ahead with its tariff measures this week. Hoping to avoid a trade war. The Minister intends to have talks with the US Embassy in Paris to voice opposition to the US' order for French firms to comply with a diversity band. Germany German Chancellor Scholz said they stand by Canada’s side and that Canada is not a state that belongs to anyone else, while he added that Europe’s goal is cooperation but the EU will respond as one if the US leaves them with no choice such as with tariffs on steel and aluminium. China China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unreasonable and harm global markets. (Comments made in China's Tuesday session). LatAm Brazil’s President Lula said he will negotiate on tariffs before retaliating, according to Bloomberg. It was also reported that Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said the country is in a privileged position to withstand the trade war with the commodity exporter’s links to China, the US and the EU to shield it from Drotectionism. accordina to FT OTHER RECENT HEADLINES 28th March EU plans concessions for Trump after reciprocal tariffs hit, according to Bloomberg sources Chinese State Media says China will "certainly respond with countermeasures if the US insists on harming China's interests regarding the April 2nd tariffs"; if they want to discuss cooperation with China, mutual respect is a prerequisite. US President Trump and Canada PM Camey held a very constructive phone call, according to both sides; Camey told Trump he will implement retaliatory tariffs. US President Trump says will be announcing pharma tariffs soon; is willing to make deals on tariffs, deals on averting auto tariffs would come later. 27th March US President Trump posted on Truth "If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both" Canadian PM Carney says its response to these latest tariffs is to fight; they will fight the US tariffs with retaliatory trade actions of its own; clear US is no longer a reliable partner 26th March US President Trump may implement copper tariffs within weeks, according to Bloomberg The US will reportedly not take all non-tariff barriers (e g. VAT) in determining reciprocal Tariff rates, according to CNBC EU Top Trade Negotiator Sefcovic expects US President Trump to hit the bloc with tariffs of about 20% next week, via FT EU expects Trump to set flat, double-digit tariff on April 2nd, according to Politico; According to two diplomats, suggested the tariff rate applied to the EU could be as high as 20 or 25% US President Trump considers more limited tariff plans, automotive tariffs could be narrowed and reciprocal tariffs lowered in latest administration proposals, via WSJ US President Trump announces to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the US, while he said they will be doing tariffs on pharmaceuticals and tariffs on lumber China's Vice Premier He Lifeng spoke with USTR's Greer by video call, via Xinhua; Both sides had candid and in depth exchange of views on economy and trade. China expressed solemn concerns on US tariffs and planned reciprocal tariffs. 25th March India is reportedly open to cutting tariffs on over half of US imports, worth USD 23bln, via Reuters citing sources; open to cutting tariffs to as low as 0 from a 5- 30% range on 55% of US imports India proposes to remove the 6% tariff imposed on online advertisement services offered by companies such as Google (GOOG) and Meta (META), known widely as the Google tax, from April 1st which is a day before Trump's reciprocal tariffs take effect. US President Trump considers a two-step tariff regime on April 2nd, according to FT; Possible phased approach to new US levies reflects debate over trade strategy within administration. US President Trump says he has April 2nd tariffs set, and he has been fair to countries that abused US for many decades 24th March: Trump implements secondary tariff on Venezuela; anyone who buys oil/gas from Venezuela will face an additional 25% tariff on all US trade. US President Trump says they will be announcing tariffs on autos, aluminium and pharmaceuticals in the very near future. Trump says he will announce additional tariffs over the next few days on autos, lumber, and chips Trump says he may give a lot of countries breaks on tariffs. 22nd March (weekend) President Donald Trump's coming wave of tariffs is poised to be more targeted than the barrage he has occasionally threatened, aides and allies say, a potential relief for markets gripped by anxiety about an all-out tariff war. (Bloomberg) 21st March France reportedly to float using EU's most powerful trade tool on US, according to Bloomberg US President Trump says there will be flexibility on tariffs, basically it's reciprocal; they can't be expected to carry Canada. UK government reportedly considering plans to reduce or even abolish its digital services tax before April 2nd, via Bloomberg. 20th March US President Trump says he believes India is probably going to be lowering tariffs substantially but on April 2nd, we will be charging them the same tariffs they charge us EU's Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says the Commission is considering delaying first set of counter-tariffs against the US to mid-April 19th March US President Trump's aides are planning new tariffs on “trillions" more in imports on April 2nd, according to WaPo EU is reportedly to tighten steel import quotas as of April 1st, via Reuters citing sources; to reduce inflows by 15% 18th March US President Trump's team reportedly explored a simplified plan for reciprocal tariffs in which they recently debated sorting trading partners into one of three tiers instead of equalising tariff rates with every nation, according to WSJ 17th March: US President Trump says he has no intention of creating exemptions on steel and aluminium tariffs, while he adds reciprocal tariffs will happen on April 2nd USTR's Greer imposes policy process on reciprocal tariff plan; President Trump's top trade negotiator is attempting to inject order into sweeping new tariffs expected next month, after previous announcements roiled markets and fueled business uncertainty India reportedly weighs lower tariffs for US medical devices, according to Economic Times 13th March: Trump said the EU put a 50% tariff on whiskey, if this is not removed, the US will place a 200% tariff on wines, champagnes and other alcoholic products coming out of France and other EU represented countries. Canada's Ontario Premier says they had a productive meeting with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and will have another meeting next week, adds feel temperatures are decreasing and it was the best meeting they had since tariff talks began TARIFF TALLY (SO FAR) US Tariff Policy US reciprocal Tariffs: Trump on February 13th signed his plan for reciprocal tariffs, albeit delayed their implementation. The delay allows Trump admin to launch negotiations on a one-by-one basis with nations that could be impacted. The studies of each country could be completed by April 1st. US tariffs on steel and aluminium: US President Trump signed proclamations on Monday 10th February 2025 to reimpose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports and declared there are no exceptions or exemptions, effective March 12th. US tariffs on agriculture: Trump: To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!" Canada/Mexico US on Canada and Mexico: Tariffs on imports from these countries have been paused for 30 days to allow for negotiations on border security and drug trafficking issues. Pause was initiated on February 3, 2025, is set to expire on March 4, 2025, at 12:01am. The pause expired, with Trump stating ‘there is no room left for a deal on tariffs on Mexico and Canada". US tariff rollback: A day after the tariffs came into effect, Trump said he would temporarily spare carmakers from a new 25% import tax imposed on Canada and Mexico. Two days after imposing tariffs, Trump announced that duties on a wide range of products would be shelved until April 2nd. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs: Following the end of the pause on March 4th, Canada said it would start with 25% tariffs on US imports worth CAD 30bln from Tuesday, while it will impose tariffs on an additional CAD 125bln worth of US imports in 21 days (albeit second wave suspended for now). Furthermore, it said tariffs will remain in place until the US trade action is withdrawn and it is in active discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures if US tariffs do not cease. 50% US tariff and Canadian Energy Surcharge rollback: Trump on March 11th initially instructed the Commerce Secretary to impose an additional 25%, to 50%, on all steel and aluminium coming into the US from Canada from March 12th although he later backed down from this threat after Ontario's Premier announced they are suspending the 25% surcharge on exports of electricity. China US on China: Additional 10% tariff on top of existing levies, no exclusions, came into effect at 12:01 EST on February 4th. Note, Trump did not clarify whether or not imports of Chinese metals would face double tariffs, as he has already imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Extra 10% duty came into effect at 12:01EST on March 4th. China's retaliatory tariffs: Chinese tariffs against the US took effect on February 10th and with officials also said to be building a list of US tech firms for potential probes. China imposed 15% tariffs on US coal & LNG, 10% tariffs on US oil, agricultural machines, and some autos; Tariffs imposed in direct response to Trump's 10% tariffs, according to the Chinese Finance Ministry. China also announced export controls (no specific country mentioned) on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium. Following the US' extra 10%, on March 4th, China announced 15% on US chicken, wheat, com, and cotton; 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products; 15 US entities to the export control list; 10 US firms to the unreliable entity list; banned the import of Illumina (ILMN) gene sequence machines to China. TARIFF TIMELINE February 1st - Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% tariffs on all imports from China and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada starting Feb 4th. February 3rd - Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on tariffs against Canada and Mexico. February 4th - US additional 10% tariff on China on top of existing levies came into effect. Chinese export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium took effect (no specific countries mentioned). February 10th - Chinese tariffs against the US took effect (15% tariffs on US coal & LNG, 10% tariffs on US oil). February 13th - Trump signed his plan for reciprocal tariffs, albeit delayed the implementation. March 4th - Tariff pause on Mexico and Canada expired; Additional 10% tariffs on China went into effect on top of Feb 4th tariffs. Canada announced retaliatory tariffs over 21 days, Mexico said it will also respond with retaliatory tariffs. March 5th - Trump allowed a one-month exemption on Mexico and Canada tariffs of US automakers following talks with Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP) March 6th - Trump postponed the initial 25% tariffs on several imports from Mexico and some imports from Canada for a month. In response, Canada suspended its second wave of retaliatory tariffs. March 10th - China's retaliatory tariffs on certain US agricultural imports (15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton; 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products) went into effect; announced on March 4th in response to the extra 10% US tariff on top of Feb 4th tariffs. March 11th - Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Canada, although he later backed down from this threat after Ontario's Premier announced they are suspending the 25% surcharge on exports of electricity. Trump separately suggested tariffs may go higher than 25% but did not specify which tariffs. March 12th - 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports came into effect, with "no exceptions or exemptions"; European Commission launched countermeasures on US imports while it is putting forward a package of new countermeasures. April 1st - Completion of the US trade policy review. April 2nd - US Liberation Day; 1) Auto tariffs "in the neighbourhood of 25%" comes into effect, 2) US tariffs on "external" agricultural products to go into effect, 3) Temporary tariff relief for Canada and Mexico expires. 4) Reciprocal tariffs kick in - details to be unveiled on the day; US President Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs at 15:00EDT/20:00BST. April 13th - EU countermeasures against 25% steel and aluminium tariff to be fully in place. TBC - pharma and semiconductors tariffs. Developing Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 20:40
RFK Jr.'s Advisor Torches Anti-MAHA Lobbyists: "Insane To Think More Bureaucrats = Better Health"
1743637200 from ZEROHEDGE
RFK Jr.'s Advisor Torches Anti-MAHA Lobbyists: "Insane To Think More Bureaucrats = Better Health" Calley Means, co-founder of the Truemed telehealth platform and a special government employee at the Department of Health and Human Services advising Robert F. Kennedy Jr., defended efforts to eliminate waste and fraud within federal health agencies. During a tense exchange at the Politico Health Care Summit on Wednesday, Means criticized existing federal health authorities as an "utter failure," prompting one healthcare lobbyist in the crowd to shout, "That's not true!" Means then proceeded on a warpath with stats, shutting up the room of anti-MAHA lobbyists. Here's the exchange: Calley: "Those scientists fundamentally have overseen a record of utter failure." Lobbyist: "That's not true!" Calley: "Oh, that's not true?" "Has there been one single chronic disease medication in modern American history that has lowered rates of the chronic disease?" "Is it appropriate that the American Academy of Pediatrics right now, which is 90% funded by pharma, is pushing Ozempic on six year olds?" "The lobbyists in this room do not have the humility to admit that we have gone completely wrong." "The lobbyists in this room laughing when we have the sickest children in the developed world." Calley Means just torched a room of lobbyists! Calley: “Those scientists fundamentally have overseen a record of utter failure.” Lobbyist: “That’s not true!” Calley: “Oh, that’s not true?” “Has there been one single chronic disease medication in modern American history that… pic.twitter.com/yQRs3AE4F7 — End Tribalism in Politics (@EndTribalism) April 2, 2025 Means continued: "When you turn on CNBC, it's just a nonstop infomercial for pharma. It's a Skyrizi commercial followed by Scott Gottlieb saying how Bobby's killing people followed by a breathless coverage of the measles outbreak, and no mention of the mental health crisis. It is insane for you to insinuate that the thing standing between us and better health is more government bureaucrats." It is insane to argue that more government bureaucrats and more spending is standing in the way of better health. It’s the opposite. The moves from HHS this week disempower administrators who let us down + ensures more money goes to scientists and frontline health services. https://t.co/OFzCGCHSEp — Calley Means (@calleymeans) April 2, 2025 Means defended rolling back staffing levels to 2017, arguing that trimming bloated federal health agencies is necessary after decades of worsening public health and some of the worst health rates for kids in the developed world. There is a dividing line in the healthcare debate: Do we need bold change to change the incentives of our system to reverse childhood chronic disease? Or is the answer more of the same? Americans voted for change in November - and they were right. pic.twitter.com/4BDTvaMB8F — Calley Means (@calleymeans) April 2, 2025 What's clear is that a bloated HHS—with its massive administrative state—has failed to improve the health of Americans. .@SecKennedy’s cuts at HHS send a clear message: Less power to administrators. More power to scientists and doctors. pic.twitter.com/yDHPQLVB4Q — Calley Means (@calleymeans) March 27, 2025 In fact, health outcomes for children have worsened. And US health costs are the highest in the world. One of the amazing parts about @SecKennedy is he prompts these lunatics in the MSM to defend a system that has overseen devastation to American health. https://t.co/ZpyPZo4bog pic.twitter.com/ppGwE46G7w — Calley Means (@calleymeans) April 1, 2025 As Means pointed out, it's time for meaningful reforms (such as HHS cuts last week)—not just in health care, but across the processed foods industrial complex. It's time for Americans to demand big food stop poisoning them with chemicals and seed oils. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 19:40
Hegseth: Men And Women In Combat Must Meet 'Same, High Standard'
1743635700 from ZEROHEDGE
Hegseth: Men And Women In Combat Must Meet 'Same, High Standard' Authored by Rachel Acenas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The Defense Department on Monday revealed that it would be imposing “sex-neutral” standards for military combat roles. US troops take part in weapons training during the 'Balikatan' or 'shoulder-to-shoulder' US-Philippines joint military exercises in Fort Magsaysay on April 13, 2023 in Nueva Ecija, Philippines. Ezra Acayan/Getty Images Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the changes to its physical fitness requirements in an effort to “fix” the standards that he said were “lowered” under President Barack Obama’s administration. “Different physical standards for men and women in the U.S. military have existed for a long time. BUT, there were also combat roles that were male-only,” Hegseth said in a statement on X. “Then, under Obama, all combat roles were opened to men AND women. BUT, different physical fitness standards for men and women remained.” “Today at the Department of Defense—we fix this. All combat roles are open to men and women BUT they must all meet the same, high standard. No standards will be lowered AND all combat roles will only have sex-neutral standards. Common sense,” Hegseth added. In a March 30 memorandum, the defense secretary said that the nature of warfare has evolved over time and the demands of U.S. service members have grown more complex. “Sex-neutral” standards must therefore be imposed, according to Hegseth. “All entry-level and sustained physical fitness requirements within combat arms positions must be sex-neutral, based solely on the operational demands of the occupation and the readiness needed to confront any adversary,” he wrote. “In establishing those standards, the Secretaries of the Military Departments may not establish standards that would result in any existing Service member being held to a lower standard.” The defense secretary also directed military secretaries to distinguish between combat and non-combat arms occupations in order to ensure that the standards reflect the unique physical demands of each role. Hegseth also directed them to come up with comprehensive plans for each of those roles. In Ground Combat roles, standards should emphasize the ability to carry heavy loads, endure prolonged physical exertion, and perform effectively in hostile environments. Roles in Special Operation Forces should require “sustained peak physical performance” and incorporate advanced swimming, climbing, parachuting, and the ability to operate in extreme environments. In Specialized Operations, such as Navy divers, service members must have the endurance to tackle conditions that are considered mentally and physically taxing. Hegseth has previously expressed his opposition to women in combat jobs and his belief that standards were lowered to accommodate women. He has also been a staunch proponent of setting all standards the same, regardless of gender. On Jan. 1, 2016, the Defense Department, under Obama, opened all combat roles to women for the first time in U.S. military history. “They’ll be allowed to drive tanks, fire mortars and lead infantry soldiers into combat,” Defense Secretary Ash Carter stated at the time. “They’ll be able to serve as Army Rangers and Green Berets, Navy SEALs, Marine Corps infantry, Air Force parajumpers, and everything else that was previously open only to men.” A 2015 study by the Marine Corps revealed the difference in performance between men and women. As part of the study, the Marine Corps conducted a gender integration experiment in which women participated in infantry courses that were typically closed to females. Mixed-gender combat units took up to a staggering 159 percent longer to evacuate a casualty than all-male units, the results showed. * * * Best sellers at ZH Store: IQ Biologix Colostrum (25% IgG from first milking of grassfed cows) IQ Astaxanthin Ultimate Antioxidant (6,000x stronger than vitamin C) ZeroHedge Multitool (Extremely solid, very sharp, comes with ZH Logo belt pouch) Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife (Made in the USA from carbon steel) Click pic, add to cart, enjoy great knife... Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 19:15
Government Funding For mRNA Technology Is Being Scrutinized And, In Some Cases, Sidelined
1743631200 from ZEROHEDGE
Government Funding For mRNA Technology Is Being Scrutinized And, In Some Cases, Sidelined It looks as though government funding for mRNA technology is on a short leash... Take, for example, a promising mRNA vaccine for pancreatic cancer, developed by Memorial Sloan Kettering, that showed encouraging early results: in some patients, immune responses lasted up to four years and appeared to reduce recurrence. It is being overshadowed by new concerns about federal support for mRNA research, according to a new op-ed by science commentator Anjana Ahuja in the Financial Times. According to Nature, NIH officials are informally advising scientists to remove references to mRNA from grant applications, and a spreadsheet tracking 130 related projects has raised fears of funding cuts. NIH claims it's simply reviewing what mRNA work it currently funds, but the lack of clarity has sparked unease—especially given the agency’s massive $47 billion research budget. Drew Weissman, the Nobel-winning scientist behind mRNA vaccine breakthroughs, warned that cutting NIH support for mRNA research would stall medical progress and harm U.S. science. Even the threat of funding cuts creates fear and instability, especially for young researchers who may now look abroad for more secure opportunities. To which we reply: if mRNA vaccines have a safe solution, the free market will eventually allow them to flourish... But the Financial Times piece says that concerns have intensified with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leading Health and Human Services, and reports that mRNA projects are being scrutinized or sidelined politically. One early study using personalized mRNA cancer vaccines is already yielding hopeful results and has launched a broader global trial, according to the op-ed. Scientists argue that pulling support now could derail life-saving innovation. As history shows, today’s medical breakthroughs rest on decades of consistent public research investment — a pipeline that can’t survive in a climate of political interference. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 18:00
Big Balls To The Rescue: DOGE Saves A Terabyte Of Data Destroyed By Exiting USIP Employees
1743625200 from ZEROHEDGE
Big Balls To The Rescue: DOGE Saves A Terabyte Of Data Destroyed By Exiting USIP Employees Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.com, I've never heard anything good about the United States Institute for Peace. It's been in bed with neocons, coupmeisters, and the Soros color revolution crowd for years. The quasi-government agency that runs like a private NGO is always sneaky and non-transparent. So it didn't surprise me a bit to learn that USIP showed unusual resistance to anyone poking into their spending from DOGE. Did you hear how the staff as USIP acted when DOGE showed up? They literally BARRICADED themselves in their offices, cut the phone lines and power to elevators, sabotaged office equipment and the Head of USIP had to be arrested & removed. pic.twitter.com/Ay8xLdt2nU — DuaneCates001 (@THEDuaneCates) March 30, 2025 They even called the cops on DOGE, only to get arrested and hauled off themselves: USIP officials attempted a petty little coup against Trump and Doge. Here’s the twist—Metro PD were called in by USIP, but when they arrived, they removed the USIP officials instead. To the Leftists eager for an uprising: The police and military aren’t on your side. pic.twitter.com/qjvVOKfT0a — Mirthful Moments (@moment_mirthful) April 1, 2025 And they seem to have had a siphoning game going on: 🚨 USIP UNDER FIRE: $13M FUNNELED TO PRIVATE ENDOWMENT, TALIBAN-LINKED PAYMENTS UNCOVERED Each year, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) receives $55M in taxpayer funding. But over the past decade, $13M was quietly transferred to its private Endowment—outside congressional… https://t.co/vBxrmZgYg1 pic.twitter.com/tRkOZvYSp5 — DOGE Tracker (@Tracking_DOGE) March 31, 2025 According to a hostile, biased report from Newsweek: Elon Musk has accused the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) of deleting a terabyte of financial data to "cover their crimes." Musk reposted a claim from the Conservative page 'amuse' on X (formerly Twitter) which stated that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had found USIP contracts going to Afghanistan's former chief of protocol, who had been a member of the Taliban, and to the Iraqi League for Youth. Musk wrote on X: "They deleted a terabyte of financial data to cover their crimes, but they don't understand technology, so we recovered it." Any government institution is most likely to be the opposite of its name https://t.co/hUfinp5Ujm — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 1, 2025 Nothing they did ever had the slightest relationship to promoting "peace." They were bribing the Afghan Taliban warlords to keep the drugs flowing. That’s what the US Institute of Peace payments were for. https://t.co/2dwhkISdLY pic.twitter.com/WFf0lyU2Zp — Mike Benz (@MikeBenzCyber) April 1, 2025 They had an opaque structure that was an invitation to corruption: DOGE: The agency called USIP has/had a structure that should never been allowed in a democracy - they were allowed to operate as a private corporation (non-profit) and a federal agency at the same time. They didn't have to follow any rules.https://t.co/X0L0jgXhNU — @amuse (@amuse) April 1, 2025 Each year, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) receives $55M in congressional (taxpayer) funds. - Prior management would sweep excess funds into its private Endowment (zero congressional oversight). -In the past 10 years, USIP has transferred ~$13M to its private… — Department of Government Efficiency (@DOGE) March 31, 2025 The most vivid and satisfying aspect of this story is that the USIP characters tried to destroy data to hide their acts -- and ran into BigBalls, or someone like him at DOGE, who quietly recovered the data they tried to destroy. DOGE & of course, Big Balls 😏 found over a TERABYTE of deleted information from the US funded "US Institute of Peace". Fraud waste & abuse will start dropping a lot of people in jail. I hope they're prepared for what's coming to them. https://t.co/ZsumrlJWnO — Jeri Lynn Simpson (@DreamerJeri) April 1, 2025 Hilarious that Big Balls undeleted the terabyte the dude thought was gone forever! Busted! We’ve got Big Balls!! https://t.co/9RknO3UlTX — Degisi (@LCDRJobie) April 1, 2025 Sometimes, the good guys really do win, and for the most embarrassing of reasons for the bad guys -- they didn't know tech like Elon's team knows tech. Now their chief may be facing criminal charges based on this bid to avoid accountability. 🚨 DOJ considers criminal charges for directors of U.S. Institute for Peace. 🚨 Timeline of USIP malfeasance, blockade of Doge.https://t.co/q2ViXx9EeT pic.twitter.com/d6MAxUF4dw — Tony Seruga (@TonySeruga) March 24, 2025 What were they hiding? It must have been something pretty big. But whatever it was, it's satisfying to know that they need to respect the will of the people who pay their paychecks and bankroll their slush funds, and like any NGO, need to provide a minimum of accountability with no record destruction. One can only hope that they will be made an example of, if for nothing else, to deter the others. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 16:20
"Yeah, Fake News": Musk Denies Politico Musk Report
1743624316 from ZEROHEDGE
"Yeah, Fake News": Musk Denies Politico Musk Report Update (1605ET): Aaand here's the denial. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt has called Politico's scoop "garbage," adding "lon Musk and President Trump have both *publicly* stated that Elon will depart from public service as a special government employee when his incredible work at DOGE is complete." "Yeah, fake news," Musk replied. Yeah, fake news https://t.co/nPhTpZj3Fc — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 2, 2025 Though we would note that 'stepping back' (Politico) does not equal 'departing' (WH). * * * Best sellers at ZH Store: IQ Biologix Colostrum (25% IgG from first milking of grassfed cows) IQ Astaxanthin Ultimate Antioxidant (6,000x stronger than vitamin C) ZeroHedge Multitool (Extremely solid, very sharp, comes with ZH Logo belt pouch) Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife (Made in the USA from carbon steel) Click picture, check out knife... * * * Shares of Tesla rose on Wednesday following an anonymously sourced Politico report (keeping in mind Musk just yanked millions in government 'subscriptions' from them) that President Trump has told his inner circle that Musk would be stepping back from his advisory role in the coming weeks. Musk, who Politico describes as "governing partner, ubiquitous cheerleader and Washington hatchet man" (totally not salty), claims that Trump "remains pleased with Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency initiative but both men have decided in recent days that it will soon be time for Musk to return to his businesses and take on a supporting role." Then Politico gets extra nasty - writing that "Musk’s looming retreat comes as some Trump administration insiders and many outside allies have become frustrated with his unpredictability and increasingly view the billionaire as a political liability, a dynamic that was thrown into stark relief Tuesday when a conservative judge Musk vocally supported lost his bid for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat by 10 points." One anonymous official allegedly told Politico that Musk is likely to retain an informal advisory role and continue to be an occasional face around the White House, while another said that anyone who thinks Musk is going to disappear entirely from Trump's orbit is "fooling themselves." As we noted above, shares of Musk-owned Tesla rose more than 5% on the report. While Polymarket odds that he'll be out as the head of DOGE in 2025 spiked as well. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 16:05
Will Today Go Down In History As The Beginning Of A New Era?
1743622800 from ZEROHEDGE
Will Today Go Down In History As The Beginning Of A New Era? To paraphrase Michael Every's earlier take, "will today go down in history, marking the end of one era and the beginning of another?" That's the question asked by DB's Jim Reid who notes that only time, and subsequent negotiations, will tell. However, as the DB credit strategist notes, "tariff announcements today could well take us into uncharted territory." According to Deutsche Bank's calculations, the previously announced measures already bring the US to a 12% average tariff rate, the highest since World War II. And then, today's announcement could increase this to 18%, and potentially even higher if the reported near-universal 20% tariff option is implemented. This would approach the levels seen in the early 1930s after the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, though likely remaining below the very protectionist rates of the early 20th century. This earlier period has been cited by Trump and Lutnick as a golden era for the US (presumably this excludes the Great Depression that followed the Smoot Hawley protectionism). Reid's points out that the recent Lutnick and Bessent podcasts highlight Lutnick's emphasis on tariffs as the foundation the US economy was built on, noting the absence of income tax until 1913 during what he considers the nation's wealthiest period. He argues that post-World War II tariff reductions were a strategic move to aid global reconstruction, with the understanding that other countries would maintain higher tariffs. However, he now believes this imbalance has persisted too long, requiring a new approach. In one respect, we've already returned to McKinley-era levels. Because trade represents a larger share of the economy today, Reid notes that tariff revenue as a percentage of GDP is already set to slightly exceed 1%, based on the announced tariffs on China (20%), Canada and Mexico (partial 25%), and steel, aluminum, and autos (25%). This puts us back in McKinley territory, and we're likely to surpass it today (chart right below). As such, Reid concludes that "any announcement today will be subject to negotiation, but the starting point will likely be era-defining." Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 15:40
Judge Blocks Trump Admin From Firing Federal Employees On Probation In 19 States
1743614400 from ZEROHEDGE
Judge Blocks Trump Admin From Firing Federal Employees On Probation In 19 States Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), A federal judge on April 1 indefinitely blocked President Donald Trump’s administration from quickly firing thousands of probationary federal workers in 19 states and Washington, narrowing a nationwide order issued last month. Protesters hold signs at a rally in support of federal workers at the Office of Personnel Management in Washington, on March 4, 2025. Alex Wroblewski/AFP via Getty Images U.S. District Judge James Bredar in Baltimore, Maryland, had already ruled on March 13 that the administration should have provided advance notice when it terminated at least 11,000 workers without notifying states and local governments in advance. The judge had ordered the administration to reinstate the fired workers at 18 agencies by March 17. Bredar’s latest decision replaces that order but also covers two additional agencies: the Defense Department and the Office of Personnel Management. In handing down his decision, the judge said that the federal government may “terminate probationary employees en masse (i.e., dismiss them via a reduction in force, or ‘RIF’)” but that when it does, it “must follow certain laws and regulations.” “Recently, government agencies executed a series of mass terminations, but when they did so, on the record before the Court, they failed to follow mandatory RIF procedures,” the judge wrote. Bredar found the Trump administration “probably broke the laws that regulate en masse terminations of government employees, and this to the continuing and irreparable harm of the Plaintiff States.” He noted, however, that his order only applies to employees who either live or work in the mostly Democratic-led states that, along with Washington, D.C., sued over the mass firings. “Perhaps a broader injunction would be in order if this action were on behalf of the thousands of employees who were laid off, the circumstances of each likely being similar if not identical to those of the others, and there being little doubt that the harms visited on some were representative of those experienced by all, or almost all. But this is not that case,” Bredar wrote. “Only states have sued here, and only to vindicate their interests as states. They are not proxies for the workers.” Agencies Covered by Court Ruling The judge noted that while “each state is entitled to decide for itself whether it will seek relief in the present circumstances,” it would “be inappropriate for the Court to fashion relief having the consequence that decisions properly reserved to the non-party states are effectively, and unnecessarily overruled by this Court.” Bredar’s ruling covers workers at the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs. Additionally, terminated probationary workers at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Environmental Protection Agency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, General Services Administration, Small Business Administration, and the U.S. Agency for International Development are covered by the orders, along with those from the Defense Department and the Office of Personnel Management. The employees covered by the order must work in Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Wisconsin, or Washington, D.C. Bredar’s ruling is in response to a March 6 lawsuit filed by a coalition of mostly Democratic-led states who sued nearly two dozen federal agencies over the probationary worker firings. In their lawsuit, the states, led by Maryland Attorney General Anthony Brown, argued the move was illegal because the agencies had failed to comply with legal requirements for RIFs, including providing 60 days of advance notice to workers and states. The Trump administration has appealed Bredar’s earlier decision, claiming the firings were lawful and that the judge lacked the power to require workers to be reinstated. A U.S. appeals court panel earlier in March declined to put Bredar’s ruling on hold. The Epoch Times has contacted the White House and the Maryland Attorney General’s Office for comment. Zachary Stieber and Reuters contributed to this report. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 13:20
WTI 'Steady' Near 5-Week Highs As 'Drill Baby Drill' Lifts US Crude Production
1743605100 from ZEROHEDGE
WTI 'Steady' Near 5-Week Highs As 'Drill Baby Drill' Lifts US Crude Production Crude prices continue to tread water above $70 (WTI) this morning (holding Monday's gains on potential sanctions on Russian oil), drifting modestly lower aftr API reported a large crude build overnight ahead of new supply coming this month as OPEC+ begins to unwind 2.2-million barrels per day of production cuts. However the new supply is being offset with tightened U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, while Trump this week threatened to impose secondary tariffs on U.S. imports from countries buying Russian oil. "Crude prices paused last month's rally, with Brent finding some resistance above USD 75, with the focus-for now-turning from a sanctions-led reduction in supply to Trump's tariff announcement and its potential negative impact on growth and demand," Saxo Bank noted. DOE Crude +6.165mm Cushing +2.373mm - biggest build since Jan 2023 Gasoline -1.551mm Distillates +264k The official data confirmed API's report that Crude inventories saw a large build last week. Stocks at the Cushing hub also soared (most since Jan 2023) as Gasoline stocks fell for the 5th straight week... Source: Bloomberg Including a 285k barrel addition to the SPR, last week saw the largest total crude inventory build since the last week of January... Source: Bloomberg US Crude production was steady at record highs as Trump's 'drill baby drill' plan appears to be working with the rig count rising notably... Source: Bloomberg WTI is holding above $71 for now (near 5-week highs)... Source: Bloomberg Finally, we note that the tariffs add to a deluge of conflicting drivers from energy markets since Trump came into office. Sanctions threaten to curb supply from Russia and Iran, even as a production boost by OPEC and its allies starting this month exacerbates concerns a glut is looming later this year. “We expect a wait-and-see stance in the oil market today until more clarity emerges on Trump’s tariff plans,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “That said, there is a risk that the oil price may decline today, driven by concerns that tariffs will significantly hinder growth.” Oil prices continue to hover near five-wek highs after the Trump administration threatened to impose steep tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian crude, Rystad Energy reported in an analysis piece.. The move, aimed at pressuring Moscow into a ceasefire with Ukraine, added a new layer of geopolitical uncertainty to the market. 'The market is still digesting what these newly proposed tariffs mean for peace negotiations,' said Janiv Shah, Rystad’s vice president of oil. Shah noted that if the tariff strategy proves effective in encouraging a Russia-Ukraine truce, the measures could be short-lived. However, he warned the tariffs could have diverging effects: “bullish for crude oil and bearish for products.” Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 10:45
Why The Global Recession Will Be Deeper And Longer Than Pundits Anticipate
1743603600 from ZEROHEDGE
Why The Global Recession Will Be Deeper And Longer Than Pundits Anticipate Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, The global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two decades of hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization anticipate. While everyone focuses on conflicts between nations, few look at the problems shared by nations. Richard Bonugli and I discuss both sets of problems in our latest podcast. The conflict sphere is dominated by the trade wars that are bubbling up here in the first inning of the global rebalancing of national interests and global trade/financial frameworks. Supporting these frameworks benefits participating nations until they don't, at which point they're jettisoned. The conviction that these frameworks, linch-pinned by the U.S. since the end of World War II in 1945, no longer serve America's core national security interests, is reaching a rough consensus, and as a result some describe the U.S. as a "rogue superpower." In other words, now that the U.S. is no longer the dumping ground for global surpluses of production, it's seen as "going rogue." There's a certain naivete in the notion that any nation acts selflessly for the good of all. All nation-states act in their own interests, just as global corporations act to optimize shareholder value and profits while proclaiming the wonderfulness of their products and services. Nations support cooperative arrangements when it benefits them, and exit those arrangements when they morph from benefit to burden. This rebalancing of cooperation and self-interest is taking place in the larger context of non-trade problems shared by all developed nations. Developing nations share many of these same problems as well: soaring debt loads, resource scarcities, corruption, mal-investment, high inflation, stagnating economies, aging populations, shrinking workforces, rising social costs and massive public health issues, many of which have been expanding rapidly behind the focus on trade and conflicting interests. The ubiquity of these issues is striking. In some ways, developed nations share more problems than they seem to realize. Consider the global rise of lifestyle diseases generated by dramatic shifts in diets and fitness. These manifest as metabolic disorders (prediabetes, diabetes) and a broad range of other chronic diseases such as heart disease and cancers. Metabolic disorders generated by changing lifestyles are now weighing heavily on nations around the world, from the U.S. and Mexico to China, India, the Mideast and beyond. The problems generated by aging populations and declining birthrates are also shared by many nations. The same is true of rising debt levels, both public and private, which threaten to destabilize economies via either ruinously high inflation or fiscal frugality, i.e. austerity. Here is total credit in the U.S., a sobering chart that mirrors the debt loads of many other nations--debt that is outstripping GDP and income as interest rates rise in the new era of global inflationary forces. The world's nations have awakened to the risks of becoming dependent on other nations for essential commodities, manufactured goods and markets. Tariffs may well be merely the at-bat players in the first innings. If history is any guide, outright bans on imports from selected nations will eventually be viewed as the only available option to rebalance national security priorities. The degrees of national dependence will become increasingly consequential as mercantilist nations that have relied on exports for growth will find markets for their exports shutting down, crippling domestic growth. Nations that attempt to become self-sufficient will find the demands for capital investment will pressure consumer spending, even as the decline of cheap imports institutionalizes inflation and price increases that outstrip wage increases. Stagflation will hinder both investment and consumer spending. Austerity will crimp fiscal borrowing and spending, and capital sloshing around the world seeking low-risk returns will face unprecedented challenges as capital controls proliferate and nations change the rules overnight. I often focus on scale because this is a limiting factor. While there may well be growth opportunities for investing in developing nations, the scale of capital sloshing around global markets will find the investment pipelines the equivalent of a straw: there is no way to deploy $100 billion in small markets and economies, never mind $1 trillion or $10 trillion. As Immanuel Wallerstein observed, Capitalism may no longer be attractive to capitalists as all these dynamics play out in a vast, inter-connected, unpredictable rebalancing of global interests and increasingly destabilizing attempts to solve complex, intractable problems with cobbled-together expediencies or doing more of what's already failed. There won't be any "saves" in this rebalancing, and so the global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two decades of hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization anticipate. New podcast: The Coming Global Recession will be Longer and Deeper than Most Analysts Anticipate (42 min) * * * Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 10:20
Meta To Expand Ray-Ban Smart Glasses Lineup With Display-Enabled Model
1743601800 from ZEROHEDGE
Meta To Expand Ray-Ban Smart Glasses Lineup With Display-Enabled Model Since late summer or fall of 2024, Ray-Ban Meta Glasses have surged in popularity with US consumers, a trend we previously highlighted citing several Goldman reports. The data was primarily based on app downloads worldwide. Source: Goldman's Jack McFerran Building on this momentum, Mark Zuckerberg's Meta's Reality Labs division is preparing to capture further market share in the smart glasses segment by releasing a new iteration of its Meta Glasses later this year. The glasses will feature an integrated screen for displaying photos and applications, according to a Bloomberg News report. These glasses are expected to be priced between $1,000 and $1,400, positioning them as an affordable offering in the smart glasses realm, considering Apple's Vision Pros cost more than $3,000. Ray-Ban Meta Glasses have been a hit with consumers considering that many other smart glasses options are unaffordable: Apple Vision Pro. As we previously noted, Tim Cook's space goggles have bombed: Vision Pro's Success Hinges On Cheaper Version As Consumers Balk At $3,500 Price Tag Apple Reportedly Halts Work On Vision Pro 2, Focuses On Cheaper Version As Demand Falters Apple "Might Wind Down" Vision Pro Production Next Month Due To "Weak Demand" Number Of Apple Vision Pro Apps Hit By "Significant Slowdown" As Demand Plunges For months, readers have been briefed on the shift to Meta Glasses... Popularity Of Meta Smart-Glasses Erupt As Apple Vision Pro Demand Vanishes Bloomberg provided further color about the Meta prototype version of the Hypernova glasses ahead of commercialization: When they are turned on, the display shows a "boot screen" with logos for Meta and other partners — such as chipmaker Qualcomm Inc. — on the product. Once the device is on, the user will see a home screen comprised of circular icons laid out horizontally, similar to the app dock on Apple devices or Meta's Quest mixed-reality headset. The glasses include dedicated apps for taking pictures, viewing photos and accessing maps. There is also support for notifications from phone apps, including Meta's Messenger and WhatsApp. The glasses will otherwise work similarly to the current Wayfarer-style Ray-Ban Metas, focusing on capturing images and video, accessing AI via built-in microphones and pairing with a phone for calls and music playback. The new version will continue to rely heavily on the Meta View phone app. Like Meta's other new devices, the glasses will run a highly customized version of the Android operating system from Alphabet Inc.'s Google. The company isn't currently planning to include an on-board app store. Users will be able to control the glasses using capacitive touch controls on the sides of the glasses, meaning they can scroll through apps or photos by swiping against the temple bars and then tapping to open something specific. Meta also plans to begin offering a so-called neural wristband for the first time, which will allow a wearer to control the glasses with gestures, such as rotating their hand to scroll through apps and photos and pinching their finger and thumb to select items. Meta is currently planning to bundle the accessory, codenamed Ceres, in the box with the glasses "The Hypernova glasses are still months away from being introduced, and the company's current plans could change," Bloomberg noted. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 09:50
Unearthed FBI Chat Logs Reveal 'Gag Order' On Biden Laptop Exposé
1743597600 from ZEROHEDGE
Unearthed FBI Chat Logs Reveal 'Gag Order' On Biden Laptop Exposé Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA, Internal FBI chat logs revealed that the bureau imposed a “gag order” on agents regarding the New York Post bombshell story on the Hunter Biden laptop. Along with showing Hunter’s depravity, the laptop revealed Joe Biden’s involvement in his son’s foreign business dealings. The chat logs, published Tuesday by the House Judiciary Committee on X, show that the gag order extended to an FBI analyst who attempted to alert social media companies that the laptop was authentic—before these companies moved to censor the story’s spread. The FBI had Hunter Biden’s laptop, but on the day the NY Post story came out, the FBI refused to tell Big Tech the truth. — House Judiciary GOP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@JudiciaryGOP) April 1, 2025 On Oct. 14, 2020, the New York Post released its first story on the laptop’s content. That same day, FBI officials instructed agents, “please do not discuss Biden matter.” Earlier chats show a group of agents—including Laura Dehmlow, Bradley Benavides and James Dennehy—debating the Post’s story. “You guys are tracking the coverage of the laptop right?” Dehmlow wrote. Both Benavides and Dennehy replied affirmatively. Later, agents whose names remain sealed sent messages stating, “right answer – nobody on call is is [sic] authorized to comment upon NY Post story” and “nobody [is] authorized to comment.” One agent asked if another had “admonished” the colleague who nearly revealed the laptop’s authenticity to Big Tech companies. “yes but he wont [sic] shut up,” one response read. Hours later, agents reiterated that they were forbidden from commenting on the laptop story, with messages like “official response no commen [sic] and “we cannot comment.” A previous transcribed interview with Dehmlow revealed that during a Zoom meeting with Big Tech, an FBI agent was interrupted before he could confirm the laptop was real and already in the bureau’s possession. The FBI had verified the laptop in 2019 by cross-referencing its serial number with Hunter’s iCloud storage, FBI special agent Erika Jensen stated during Hunter’s criminal trial in 2024. Despite this verification, the bureau remained silent while social media companies debated whether the Post’s story was tied to a Russian disinformation campaign. Notably, the FBI had warned them weeks earlier of an imminent “hack-and-leak” story about the 2020 election, leading many to mistakenly equate that warning with the laptop exposé. The laptop revealed that while Hunter failed to pay millions in taxes, he also consumed drugs, paid for prostitutes and launched what Republicans call an “influence-peddling scheme” aimed at selling access—or at least the appearance of access—to Joe Biden in exchange for payments. According to the laptop, 10% of these payments were earmarked for the “Big Guy,” a term confirmed by former Biden ally Devon Archer to refer to Joe Biden. Biden went on to win the 2020 election, and before leaving office in 2025, he issued sweeping pardons to his siblings and Hunter, covering offenses committed between 2014 and 2025. Read the full House Judiciary Committee’s X thread on the chatlogs: The Committee had testimony from key FBI personnel, but until now, the FBI refused to produce the internal communications from that day in unclassified form for the American public to see. pic.twitter.com/I5uGnJICVM — House Judiciary GOP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@JudiciaryGOP) April 1, 2025 The internal FBI chat log also shows how far senior FBI officials went to silence this analyst. After the meeting, a senior FBI lawyer put a “gag order” on the analyst. pic.twitter.com/9AzXIl565B — House Judiciary GOP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@JudiciaryGOP) April 1, 2025 Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 08:40
DNC, Schumer Sue Trump Over Order Targeting Illegal Immigrant Voting
1743592800 from ZEROHEDGE
DNC, Schumer Sue Trump Over Order Targeting Illegal Immigrant Voting Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The Democratic National Committee (DNC) and two top U.S. lawmakers on March 31 sued President Donald Trump over a recent executive order that aims to enforce the law against illegal immigrant voting and election dates. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) in Washington on March 13, 2025. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images “The Executive Order seeks to impose radical changes on how Americans register to vote, cast a ballot, and participate in our democracy—all of which threaten to disenfranchise lawful voters and none of which is legal,” says the lawsuit, filed by Democratic Party attorney Marc Elias in federal court in Washington. Trump’s March 25 order has multiple sections. Several deal with laws that bar foreigners from registering to vote or from voting in federal elections. Trump directed the independent Election Assistance Commission to require proof of U.S. citizenship in its mail voter registration form, ordered U.S. officials to work with the Department of Government Efficiency to review voter rolls to identify noncitizens who are already registered, and told the U.S. attorney general to prosecute individuals who have illegally registered or voted. Another prong takes aim at how some states in recent years have begun counting mailed ballots that arrive after Election Day, which the order says contravenes federal law. A third portion says the Election Assistance Commission shall stop providing federal funds to states that don’t comply with the laws on election dates and noncitizen voting and voter registration. The U.S. Constitution’s election clause says that states can set election dates, although Congress can alter them. “Outside of the Elections Clause, other provisions in the Constitution place certain requirements and limitations on the regulation of elections—but none allows the President to override the will of the States or Congress in this space,” the new suit states. The legal challenge also says that the Election Assistance Commission is an independent agency over which the president, who appoints commissioners, has no control, and that federal law lets applicants who vote in federal elections attest to citizenship with a signature as opposed to requiring proof from documents such as a passport. In addition to the DNC, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat in the U.S. Senate, and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives, are plaintiffs in the suit. The Democrats are asking the court to declare that the order violates the Constitution and federal law and block U.S. officials, such as the attorney general, from implementing it. “The Democrats continue to show their disdain for the Constitution and it continues to show in their insane objections to the President’s commonsense executive actions to require proof of U.S. citizenship in an effort to protect the integrity of American elections,“ Harrison Fields, a White House spokesman, told The Epoch Times in an email. ”The Trump administration is standing up for free, fair, and honest elections and asking this basic question is essential to our Constitutional Republic.” Ahead of the 2016 election, Elias helped compile a dossier against Trump. He was named in a different order by Trump that directed officials to take action against lawyers who are violating laws and regulations. Earlier Monday, several organizations filed a separate suit in the same court over the election order, outlining similar arguments. “The president’s executive order is an unlawful action that threatens to uproot our tried-and-tested election systems and silence potentially millions of Americans,“ Danielle Lang, senior director of voting rights at the Campaign Legal Center, which is representing the groups, said in a statement. ”It is simply not within the president’s authority to set election rules by executive decree, especially when they would restrict access to voting in this way.” Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 07:20
White House Prepares TikTok Proposal Meeting Wednesday Ahead Of Deadline
1743591300 from ZEROHEDGE
White House Prepares TikTok Proposal Meeting Wednesday Ahead Of Deadline Ahead of President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement across all US trading partners later today, the president will meet with senior administration officials to review a final proposal for the Chinese social media app TikTok. The deliberations come before a Saturday deadline, by which TikTok must complete a sale to a non-Chinese entity or face a US ban. CBS News cited sources familiar with the upcoming meeting in the Oval Office that said Vice President JD Vance, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard would be present. It's unclear whether Trump will approve the final proposal today, given that today is "Liberation Day." The report noted that Blackstone and Oracle are potential investors. At the start of Trump's first term, he signed an executive order granting a 75-day extension for TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, to sell the app—used by 170 million Americans—to a US entity or face a nationwide ban. The deadline is Saturday, April 5, bringing the final deal down to the wire. Over the weekend, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, "We have a lot of potential buyers. There's a lot of interest in TikTok. The decision is going to be my decision," adding, "I'd like to see TikTok remain alive." Trump said Monday there was "a lot of enthusiasm for TikTok." In a separate report, the Financial Times said Marc Andreessen's venture capital firm, Andreessen Horowitz, was discussing the purchase of TikTok from ByteDance with Oracle and other investors. Reuters noted, "In the closely watched sale of TikTok, the White House is playing the role of an investment bank, with Vance running the auction." The Trump administration is about to have a hectic week. It will announce reciprocal tariffs later today, and it must also begin finalizing a deal for TikTok as the April 5 deadline looms. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 06:55
Russia Halts Large Chunk Of Kazakhstan's Oil Export Capacity
1743584400 from ZEROHEDGE
Russia Halts Large Chunk Of Kazakhstan's Oil Export Capacity By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com Russia has ordered shut two of the three moorings of the main oil export terminal on the Black Sea handling Kazakhstan’s oil exports, which could seriously disrupt Kazakh crude shipments if the suspension lasts more than a few days. Following snap safety inspections by Russia’s Federal Agency for Transport Supervision, prompted by the Kerch Strait oil spill in December 2024, Russia ordered on Monday that the SPM-1 and SPM-2 moorings of the terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) be shut immediately, CPC said in a statement. The consortium operates the pipeline from the Caspian coast in northwest Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port on Russia’s Black Sea coast. The port handles most of Kazakhstan’s crude exports from giant oilfields in Kazakhstan operated by international oil firms, including U.S. supermajor Chevron. Affiliates of Chevron and ExxonMobil are also minority shareholders in CPC, whose biggest shareholder is the Russian Federation with a 24% stake. CPC complied with the order for a temporary ban of operations at the SPM-1 and SPM-2 moorings and took them out of service “until the identified deficiencies have been addressed.” Until then, all transshipment operations at the CPC Marine Terminal will be delivered using the SPM-3 mooring commissioned in 2014, the consortium said. The suspension of part of the export capacity could more than halve the crude oil exports of Kazakhstan if it drags on for more than a week, trading sources told Reuters on Tuesday. The potential disruption to Kazakhstan’s oil exports comes as the country part of the OPEC+ pact saw its crude production hit a record high in March despite continued pledges to start complying with its OPEC+ quota that it has been exceeding for years. Kazakhstan appears to find it hard to convince Chevron and the other supermajors operating in the country to limit production now after years of investing billions of U.S. dollars in oilfield expansions. Amid tensions with OPEC+ and the oil majors, Kazakhstan said last month that energy minister Almassadam Satkaliyev would step down from the role and lead a newly minted atomic energy agency. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 05:00
Which AI Chatbots Collect The Most Data About You?
1743581700 from ZEROHEDGE
Which AI Chatbots Collect The Most Data About You? The harbinger of the AI revolution, ChatGPT, remains the most popular AI tool on the market, with more than 200 million weekly active users. But amongst all its competitors, which AI chatbots are collecting the most user data? And why does that matter? Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu visualizes data from Surfshark which identified the most popular AI chatbots and analyzed their privacy details on the Apple App Store. Their findings are as of February 18th, 2025. Gemini, the Data Collection King At first place, Google’s Gemini (released March, 2023) collects 22 different data points across 10 categories, from its users. Data collected ranges from general diagnostics (that all bots in this study collect) to access to contacts (that no other bot identified collects). Note: The Number of data points collected in each category vary per bot, leading to different totals. xAI’s Grok (released November, 2023) collects the least unique data points (7). China’s DeepSeek (released Jan 2025), sits comfortably in the middle of the pack at 11 points. The kind of data collected by each of these AI tools varies. All of them collected general diagnostics information. However, only Gemini and Perplexity look at purchases. And then, nearly all but Perplexity.ai and Grok collect user content. User content is the kind of information that is usually linked to third party data and then sold to advertisers for targeted ads on the platform. The general rule of thumb when it comes to data privacy is true for AI chatbots also. After all, information is stored on their servers, and those can be breached. Want to stay up to date on the AI revolution? Check out: Ranked: Jobs Where AI is Most Used for quick insights into the shifting workplace. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 04:15
US Treasury Targets Hezbollah's Iran-Backed Aid Network
1743579000 from ZEROHEDGE
US Treasury Targets Hezbollah's Iran-Backed Aid Network Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Individuals and entities helping to finance the Hezbollah terrorist group were sanctioned by the Department of the Treasury on March 28. Ambulances transport the coffins of Hezbollah fighters and civilians killed in the recent war with Israel, during their funeral procession in the southern border village of Kfar Kila, Lebanon, on March 9, 2025. Rabih Daher/AFP via Getty Images The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) “is designating five individuals and three associated companies involved in a Lebanon-based sanctions evasion network supporting the Hizballah finance team,” the agency said in a March 28 statement. Hezbollah, also known as Hizballah, is an Iran-backed terrorist group based in Lebanon. Following the Hamas terrorist attack against Israel in October 2023, Hezbollah began firing thousands of rockets and mortars into Israel. According to the Treasury Department, “the Hizballah finance team uses front companies to generate millions of dollars in revenue for Hizballah and support the group’s terrorist activities.” The team manages several commercial projects and oil smuggling networks to generate revenue, which is eventually transferred to Hezbollah, according to the Treasury. This is typically done in conjunction with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF). The individuals and companies that OFAC has sanctioned facilitate and conceal oil sales for IRGC-QF and offer the terrorist group access to formal financial systems. For instance, one of the sanctioned companies is Ravee SARL, a Lebanese business “that aims to generate profits for Hizballah from trade deals related to veterinary products,” the Treasury said. One sanctioned individual, Mahasin Mahmud Murtada, is a “registered owner of several companies associated with Hizballah’s commercial investments,” it said. With the new sanctions, all property of the designated individuals and companies that is located in the United States is “blocked and must be reported to OFAC,” the agency said. U.S. citizens are prohibited from engaging in any transactions involving the sanctioned individuals. “Violations of U.S. sanctions may result in the imposition of civil or criminal penalties on U.S. and foreign persons. OFAC may impose civil penalties for sanctions violations,” the agency stated. Acting Undersecretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Bradley T. Smith said OFAC’s latest actions aim to “expose and disrupt the schemes that fund Hizballah’s terrorist violence against the Lebanese people and their neighbors.” “These evasion networks strengthen Iran and its proxy Hizballah and undermine the courageous efforts of the Lebanese people to build a Lebanon for all its citizens,” he said. Disrupting Terrorist Financing The U.S. government previously imposed sanctions against entities for assisting Hezbollah. In 2021, the Treasury announced sanctions on multiple Chinese nationals and entities for financing the terrorist group. Many of the companies were based in Hong Kong and were directly or indirectly owned or controlled by Morteza Minaye Hashemi, an Iranian businessman living in China who was on the United States’ sanctions list and was accused of funding IRGC-QF. Hashemi laundered tens of millions of dollars through foreign exchange and gold sales, transferring the money to IRGC-QF and Hezbollah, the department said at the time. Last year, a Lebanese national pleaded guilty to circumventing U.S. sanctions to finance Hezbollah. The individual was accused of coercing an individual to liquidate real estate assets in Michigan and transfer hundreds of thousands of dollars to Lebanon without the necessary licenses. Israel is also targeting Hezbollah’s financial channels to counter the terrorist group amid its conflict with Hamas. In October 2024, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) hit branches of the U.S.-sanctioned Al-Qard Al-Hasan Association in Beirut via multiple strikes. That entity helped Hezbollah store billions of dollars in funds for its terror operations, according to the IDF. Hezbollah reportedly used the organization to buy armaments and weapon storage facilities, pay salaries of its members, and conduct terror activities. Meanwhile, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah intensified recently when the Jewish state’s military conducted an air strike in Beirut on March 28. This was the first attack on Lebanon’s capital city after Israel and the terrorist group agreed to a cease-fire in November. The strike targeted a Hezbollah drone storage site, the military said, adding that the operation was carried out after rockets were fired at Israel from Lebanon earlier in the morning “in blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon.” Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 03:30
Top German Politicians Are Calling For Resumption Of Russian Gas
1743576300 from ZEROHEDGE
Top German Politicians Are Calling For Resumption Of Russian Gas In Europe, the lure of a return to cheap energy is ever-present, and that conversation is becoming easier as the Trump administration in Washington pushes hard for ceasefire negotiations with Moscow. Senior German politicians are already calling for a resumption of ties with Russia. For example Michael Kretschmer, a senior member of Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democrats, is now arguing that EU sanctions on Russia are "completely out of date" as they increasingly openly contradict "what the Americans are doing." The CDU’s Michael Kretschmer, via dpa Financial Times in a fresh report quoted Kretschmer's words to the German press agency DPA as follows: "When you realize that you’re weakening yourself more than your opponent, then you have to think about whether all of this is right." The same publication has observed the expected immediate backlash to the statements as follows: Kretschmer, who is also a long-standing opponent of weapons deliveries to Ukraine, is the latest in a string of figures from both Merz’s centre-right CDU and the centre-left Social Democrats to have gone public in recent weeks with calls to resume economic or energy ties with Russia. That has created a problem for Merz — who is all but certain to be Germany’s next chancellor — as well as for his likely coalition partners in the SPD at a time when he is trying to cast himself as a strong partner for Ukraine and for Europe. Germany’s Green party, which is strongly pro-Kyiv, called on Sunday for Merz to clamp down on “friends of Putin” in his party. But Merz hasn't himself actively tried to silence this growing desire in some political circles for rapprochement with Russia. But Bloomberg reported Monday, "The co-head of Germany’s Social Democrats party and frontrunner to become the next finance minister Lars Klingbeil dismissed swirling speculation over reviving pipeline gas deliveries from Russia after a potential peace deal for Ukraine." And as we highlighted, TotalEnergies’ chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said last week: “I would not be surprised if two out of the four (came) back to stream, not four out of the four,” Patrick Pouyanne said at an industry event in Germany’s capital city, Berlin, as carried by Reuters. “There is no way to be competitive against Russian gas with LNG coming from wherever it is,” the executive added. Meanwhile, both Hungary and Slovakia not only continue bypassing Ukraine for imports of Russian gas - after Ukraine broke from the transit of Russian gas on January 1st - but are actually boosting these supplies. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced on Tuesday that the Veľké Zlievce/Balassagyarmat interconnection border point from Hungary to Slovakia has been brought to full capacity due to the stoppage through Ukraine. Source: EIA "We managed to solve the problem of natural gas supplies to Slovakia and Hungary, despite the fact that Ukraine created very serious difficulties for us. To ensure reliable gas supplies to Slovakia via Hungary even with the cessation of its transit through Ukraine, we had to increase the capacity of the connecting gas pipeline between our countries," the FM told a press briefing. "Today, the gas pipeline between Hungary and Slovakia is operating at increased capacity. We have now increased the capacity of this pipeline by 900 million cubic meters per year. Until now, 2.6 billion cubic meters were transported between the two countries per year. Starting today, this volume will increase to 3.5 billion cubic meters," Szijjarto noted. He added that "compared to last year's record volume, the volume of natural gas transported through Hungary to Slovakia has increased by 50% in the first three months of this year." Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 02:45
Turkey Moves To Take Control Of Strategic Airbase In Central Syria
1743573600 from ZEROHEDGE
Turkey Moves To Take Control Of Strategic Airbase In Central Syria Via Middle East Eye Turkey has begun efforts to take control of Syria's Tiyas air base, also known as T4, and is preparing to deploy air defence systems there, sources familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye. Construction plans for the site are also reportedly under way. Ankara and Damascus have been negotiating a defense pact since December, following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. The agreement would see Turkey provide air cover and military protection for Syria’s new government, which currently lacks a functioning military. Sources say Turkey intends to deploy air defence systems like the Hisar (pictured) at T4 air base in Syria (handout). Although Turkish officials had previously downplayed the possibility of a military presence in Syria, describing such plans as premature, negotiations have quietly continued. While Israel views a Turkish military presence in Syria as a potential threat, Ankara aims to stabilize the country by leveraging its military capabilities and filling the power vacuum left by the withdrawal of Russia and Iran. Turkey also intends to intensify its fight against the Islamic State (IS) group, a key condition for the United States to consider withdrawing from the region. A source familiar with the matter told MEE that Turkey has begun moving to take control of the T4 air base, located near Palmyra in central Syria. "A Hisar-type air defense system will be deployed to T4 to provide air cover for the base," the source said. "Once the system is in place, the base will be reconstructed and expanded with necessary facilities. Ankara also plans to deploy surveillance and armed drones, including those with extended strike capabilities." The source added that the base would help Turkey establish aerial control across the region and support its efforts to combat IS, which still has cells operating in the Syrian desert. Ankara eventually aims to establish a layered air defense system in and around the base, which would have short-, medium- and long-range air defense capabilities against a variety of threats, from jets to drones to missiles. A second source noted that the presence of Turkish air defense systems and drones would likely deter Israel from launching air strikes in the area. The Turkish defense ministry declined to comment. Unnerving Israel Israel has regularly targeted Syrian military installations since Assad's government collapsed in December, with a recent surge in operations around T4. Last week, the Israeli air force struck T4 and the Palmyra air base, targeting runways and strategic assets. An Israeli security source told the media on Monday that any Turkish air base in Syria would undermine Israel’s freedom of operation. "This is a potential threat that we oppose," the source said. Map via BBC Tensions between Turkey and Israel have escalated since the start of Israel's war on Gaza in 2023, ending a brief period of reconciliation between the two countries. The collapse of the Assad government and Turkey’s emergence as a dominant power in Syria have further alarmed Israel, which now sees Ankara as a potentially greater threat in the region than Iran. "We targeted the T4 military base recently to send a message: we will not allow any threat to our operational freedom in the air," the Israeli security source told the Jerusalem Post. The first MEE source also revealed that Ankara is considering the temporary deployment of S-400 air defence systems to T4 or Palmyra to secure the airspace during reconstruction efforts. However, no final decision has been made and Russia would need to give its approval. Meanwhile, Ankara and Washington have been in talks about lifting the sanctions imposed on Turkey over its purchase of the Russian-made S-400 system, which led to Turkey's removal from the F-35 fighter jet program in 2019. Turkey is not building a military presence in Syria to fight ISIS, that’s a lie. They helped bring them over. Last time the two were neighbors, they were saluting each other. https://t.co/CZ593HRmqT — Bassem (@BBassem7) April 1, 2025 In a phone call last month, US President Donald Trump and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed possible ways for Turkey to rejoin the program. Under US law, Turkey must relinquish possession of the S-400 system to be readmitted. Turkish officials have proposed deactivating the system by disassembling and storing it, or potentially relocating it to a Turkish-controlled base outside of Turkey. However, Israel strongly opposes any move that would allow Ankara access to the F-35, arguing it would erode Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 02:00
USAID And The Architecture Of Perception
1743564300 from ZEROHEDGE
USAID And The Architecture Of Perception Authored by Josh Stylman via The Brownstone Institute, The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has long portrayed itself as America’s humanitarian aid organization, delivering assistance to developing nations. With an annual budget of nearly $40 billion and operations in over 100 countries, it represents one of the largest foreign aid institutions in the world. But recent disclosures reveal its true nature as something far more systematic: an architect of global consciousness. Consider: Reuters, one of the world’s most trusted news sources, received USAID funding for ‘Large Scale Social Deception’ and ‘Social Engineering Defence.’ While there’s debate about the exact scope of these programs, the implications are staggering: a division of one of the world’s most relied-upon sources for objective reporting was paid by a US government agency for systemic reality construction. This funding goes beyond traditional media support, representing a deliberate infrastructure for discourse framing that fundamentally challenges the concept of ‘objective’ reporting. Source: USASpending.gov database But it goes deeper. In what reads like a Michael Crichton plot come to life, the recent USAID revelations show a staggering reach of narrative control. Take Internews Network, a USAID-financed NGO that has pushed nearly half a billion dollars ($472.6m) through a secretive network, ‘working with’ 4,291 media outlets. In just one year, they produced 4,799 hours of broadcasts reaching up to 778 million people and ‘trained’ over 9,000 journalists. This isn’t just funding – it’s a systematic infrastructure of consciousness manipulation. The revelations show USAID funding both the Wuhan Lab’s gain-of-function research and the media outlets that would shape the story around what emerged from it. Backing organizations that would fabricate impeachment evidence. Funding both the election systems that facilitate outcomes and the fact-checkers that determine which discussions about those outcomes are permitted. But these disclosures point to something far more significant than mere corruption. These revelations didn’t emerge from nowhere – they come from government grant disclosures, FOIA requests, and official records that aren’t even hidden, just ignored. As my old friend Mark Schiffer noted the other day, ‘The most important truths today cannot be debated – they must be felt as totalities.’ The pattern, once seen, cannot be unseen. Some may question DOGE’s methods or the rapid pace of these disclosures, and those constitutional concerns deserve serious discussion. But that’s a separate conversation from what these documents reveal. The revelations themselves – documented in official records and grant disclosures – are undeniable and should shock anyone who values truth. The means of exposure matter far less than what’s being exposed: one of the largest narrative control operations in history. No domain is untouched – markets, tech, culture, health, and obviously, media – and you’ll find the same design. Intelligence agencies are deeply embedded in each domain because shaping how we perceive reality is more powerful than controlling reality itself Just as fiat currency replaced real value with declared value, we now see the same pattern everywhere: fiat science replaces inquiry with predetermined conclusions, fiat culture replaces organic development with curated influence, fiat history replaces lived experience with manufactured narratives. We live in an era of fiat everything – where reality itself is declared, not discovered. And just as they create artificial scarcity in monetary systems, they manufacture false choices everywhere else – presenting us with artificial binaries that obscure the true complexity of our world. As Schiffer wrote elsewhere, reality no longer requires consensus, only coherence. But there’s a crucial distinction: real coherence emerges naturally across multiple domains, reflecting deeper truths that cannot be fabricated. The coherence imposed by perception management isn’t truth – it’s a controlled discourse engineered for consistency, not discovery. The USAID receipts now provide concrete evidence of how this manufactured coherence is built: a scripted reality where the appearance of logic is more important than actual substance. This isn’t just pattern matching – it’s pattern prediction. Just as algorithms learn to recognize and anticipate behavioral patterns, those who understand this system’s architecture can see its next moves before they’re made. The question isn’t whether something is “true” or “false” – it’s understanding how information flows shape consciousness itself. To understand how deep this goes, let’s examine their methodology. As Dr. Sherri Tenpenny and others have meticulously documented through FOIA requests and government grant disclosures, the pattern emerges through two primary vectors of control: Information Control: $34 million to Politico (which as Tenpenny notes, struggled to make payroll without this funding) Extensive payments to the New York Times Direct funding to BBC Media Action $4.5 million to Kazakhstan to combat “disinformation” Health and Development: $84 million to Clinton Foundation health initiatives $100 million for AIDS treatment in Ukraine Funding for contraceptive programs in developing nations Cultural Programming: $20 million to Sesame Street in Iraq $68 million to the World Economic Forum $2 million for sex changes and LGBT activism in Guatemala Global cultural initiatives (millions spread across LGBTQ programs in Serbia, DEI projects in Ireland, transgender arts in Colombia and Peru, and tourism promotion in Egypt) What emerges is not just a list of expenditures, but a blueprint for global reality architecture: From Kazakhstan to Ireland, from Serbia to Peru, from Vietnam to Egypt – there isn’t a corner of the world untouched by this system. This isn’t merely a distribution of resources, but a strategic infrastructure of global influence. Each allocation – whether to media outlets, health initiatives, or cultural programs – represents a carefully placed node in a network designed to shape perception across multiple domains. First, control the flow of information through media funding. Then, establish legitimacy through health and development programs. Finally, reshape social structures through cultural programming. The end goal isn’t just to influence what people think, but to determine the boundaries of what can be thought – and to do so on a planetary scale. For those who’ve been studying the architecture of censorship, like Mike Benz has been documenting for years, none of this comes as a surprise. It’s perfect symmetry: we knew about the censorship. Now we’re seeing the receipts. One hand feeds them talking points, the other hand feeds them our taxpayer dollars. This isn’t speculation; it’s documented fact. Even Wikipedia’s own funding database contains over 45,000 reports tied to USAID – many detailing corruption, media influence, and financial manipulation. The evidence has always been there, but it was ignored, dismissed, or buried under the very fact-checking apparatus USAID funds. These weren’t crackpot theories; they were warnings. And now, we finally have the receipts. And it doesn’t stop at controlling information. USAID isn’t just shaping media portrayals – it’s funding the systems that enforce them. Last week, Benz broke a bombshell: USAID gives twice as much money ($27 million) to the fiscal sponsor of the group controlling Soros-funded prosecutors than Soros himself gives ($14 million). This isn’t about one billionaire’s influence – it’s about state-backed enforcement of scripted accounts. The same network that dictates what you can think is dictating who prosecutes crime, what laws are enforced, and who faces consequences. Source: Wikileaks USAID’s influence isn’t just about funding media control—it extends to direct political interference. It didn’t just send aid to Brazil – it funded censorship, backed left-wing activists, and helped rig the 2022 election against Bolsonaro. Former State Department official Benz revealed that the agency waged a “holy war on censorship,” systematically suppressing Bolsonaro supporters online while bolstering opposition voices. Millions flowed to NGOs pushing leftist framing, including the Felipe Neto Institute, which received US funding while Bolsonaro’s allies were deplatformed. USAID also bankrolled Amazon-based activist groups, financed media campaigns designed to manipulate public opinion, and funneled money into Brazilian organizations that pushed for stricter internet regulations. This wasn’t aid – it was election interference disguised as democracy promotion. USAID used American tax dollars to decide Brazil’s future, and it likely deployed similar tactics in many other countries – all under the guise of humanitarian assistance. And it’s not just abroad. While USAID’s defenders claim it’s a tool for charity and development in poor nations, the evidence suggests something much more insidious. It’s a $40 billion driver of regime change overseas – and now, evidence points to its involvement in regime change efforts at home. Alongside the CIA, USAID appears to have played a role in the 2019 impeachment of Trump – an illegal effort to overturn a US election using the same tools of perception sculpting and political engineering it deploys abroad. Left vs right, vaxxed vs unvaxxed, Russia vs Ukraine, believer vs skeptic (on any topic) – these false dichotomies serve to fragment our understanding while reality itself is far more nuanced and multidimensional. Each manufactured crisis spawns not just reactions, but reactions to those reactions, creating endless layers of derivative meaning built on artificial foundations. The real power isn’t in manufacturing individual facts, but in creating systems where false facts become self-reinforcing. When a fact-checker cites another fact-checker who cites a “trusted source” that’s funded by the same entities funding the fact-checkers, the pattern becomes clear. The truth isn’t in any individual claim – it’s in recognizing how the claims work together to create a closed system of artificial reality. Take the vaccine debate for example: The pattern manifests before the explanation – people passionately debate efficacy without realizing the entire framework was constructed. First, they fund the research. Then they fund the media to shape the narrative. Even skeptics often fall into their trap, arguing about effectiveness rates while accepting their basic premise. The moment you debate ‘vaccine efficacy,’ you’ve already lost – you’re using their framework to discuss what is, in reality, an experimental gene therapy. By accepting their terminology, their metrics, their framing of the discussion itself, you’re playing into their constructed reality. Each layer of control is designed not just to influence opinions, but to preemptively structure how those opinions can be formed. Like learning to spot a staged photo or hearing a false note in music, developing a reliable bullshit detector requires pattern recognition. Once you start seeing how narratives are constructed – how language is weaponized, how frameworks are built – it changes the lens with which you view the whole world. The same intelligence agencies embedding themselves in every domain that shapes our understanding aren’t just controlling information flow – they’re programming how we process that information itself. The recursive theater plays out in real time. When USAID announced funding cuts, BBC News rushed to amplify humanitarian concerns with dramatic headlines about HIV patients and endangered lives. What they didn’t mention in their reporting? USAID is their top funder, bankrolling BBC Media Action with millions in direct payments. Watch how the system protects itself: the largest recipient of USAID media funding creates emotional propaganda about USAID’s importance while obfuscating their financial relationship in their reporting. Source: Lindsay Penny (left), BBC website (right) This institutional self-defense illustrates a crucial pattern: organizations funded for reality construction protect themselves through layers of misdirection. When presented with evidence, the fact-checking apparatus funded by these same systems springs into action. They’ll tell you that these payments were for standard “subscriptions,” that programs promoting gender ideology are really just about “equality and rights.” But when USAID awards $2 million to Asociación Lambda in Guatemala for “gender-affirming health care” – which can include surgeries, hormone therapy, and counseling – those same defenders conveniently omit the details, blurring the line between advocacy and direct intervention. The very organizations funded for social architecture are the ones telling you there is no social architecture. It’s akin to asking the arsonist to investigate the fire. Like characters in a grand production, I watch old friends still trusting in institutions like the New York Times. Even this exposition becomes a potential node in the system – the very act of revealing the mechanics of control might itself be anticipated, another layer of the recursive theater. In my earlier work on technocracy, I explored how our digital world has evolved far beyond Truman Burbank’s physical dome. His world had visible walls, cameras, and scripted encounters – a constructed reality he could theoretically escape by reaching its edges. Our prison is more sophisticated: no walls, no visible limits, just algorithmic containment that shapes thought itself. Truman only had to sail far enough to find the truth. But how do you sail beyond the boundaries of perception when the ocean itself is programmed? Sure, USAID has done some good work – but so did Al Capone with his soup kitchens. Just as the infamous gangster’s charity work made him untouchable in his community, USAID’s aid programs create a veneer of benevolence that makes questioning their larger agenda politically impossible. Philanthropic window-dressing has long been a tool for power players to shield themselves from scrutiny. Consider Jimmy Savile: a celebrated philanthropist whose charity work granted him access to hospitals and vulnerable children while he committed unspeakable crimes in plain sight. His carefully cultivated image made him beyond reproach for decades, just as institutional benevolence now serves as a protective layer for global influence operations. The true function of organizations like USAID isn’t just aid – it’s social architecture, mind shaping, and the laundering of taxpayer dollars through an intricate web of NGOs and foundations. This layered deception is self-reinforcing – each level of manufactured reality is protected by another level of institutional authority. These institutions don’t just dictate stories; they shape the infrastructure through which narratives are disseminated. For what it’s worth, I believe most tools themselves are neutral. The same digital systems that enable mass surveillance could empower individual sovereignty. The same networks that centralize control could facilitate decentralized cooperation. The question isn’t the technology itself, but whether it’s deployed to concentrate or distribute power. This understanding didn’t come from nowhere. Those who first sensed this artificiality were dismissed as conspiracy theorists. We noticed the coordination across outlets, the strange synchronicity of messaging, the way certain stories were amplified while others disappeared. Now we have the sales receipts showing exactly how that manipulation was funded and orchestrated. I know this journey of discovery intimately. When I started understanding the dangers of mRNA technology, I went all in. I connected with the incredibly talented filmmaker Jennifer Sharp and helped with Anecdotals, her film about vaccine injuries. I was ready to tether my whole identity to this cause. But then I started zooming out. I began seeing how Covid might have been a financial crime designed to usher in central bank digital currency. The deeper I looked, the more I realized these weren’t isolated deceptions – it was part of a larger system of control. The very fabric of what I thought was real began to dissolve. What disturbed me most was seeing how deeply programming relies on mimicry. Humans are imitative creatures by nature – it’s how we learn, how we build culture. But this natural tendency has been weaponized. I’d present friends with peer-reviewed studies, documented evidence, historical connections – only to watch them respond with verbatim talking points from corporate media. It wasn’t that they disagreed – it was that they weren’t even processing the information. They were pattern-matching against pre-approved chronicles, outsourcing their thinking to “trusted experts” who were themselves caught in the same web of manufactured perception. I realized then: none of us knows anything for certain – we’re all just mimicking what we’ve been programmed to believe is authoritative knowledge. The challenge isn’t just seeing through any single deception – it’s understanding how these systems work together in complex, non-linear ways. When we fixate on individual threads, we miss the larger pattern. Like pulling a thread on a sweater and watching it unravel, eventually you realize there was no sweater in the first place – just an intricately woven illusion. Just as a hologram contains the whole image in each fragment, every piece of this system reflects the larger blueprint for reality construction. Consider the $34 million to Politico – this isn’t just a funding stream, but a holographic reveal of the entire system. It’s not merely that Politico received money; it’s that this single transaction contains the entire blueprint of perception management. The payment itself is a microcosm: struggling media outlet, government funding, narrative control – each element reflects the whole. This recursive system protects itself through layers of self-validation. When critics point out media bias, fact-checkers funded by the same system declare it ‘debunked.’ When researchers question official accounts, journals funded by the same interests reject their work. Even the language of resistance – ‘speaking truth to power,’ ‘fighting disinformation,’ ‘protecting democracy’ – has been co-opted and weaponized by the very system it was meant to challenge. The Covid story epitomizes this systemic manipulation. What began as a public health crisis transformed into a global experiment in narrative control – demonstrating how rapidly populations could be reshaped through coordinated messaging, institutional authority, and weaponized fear. The pandemic wasn’t just about a virus; it was a proof of concept for how comprehensively human cognition could be engineered – a single node revealing the true scope and ambition of discourse manipulation. Think about the cycle: American taxpayers unknowingly funded the crisis itself – then paid again to be deceived about it. They paid for the development of gain-of-function research, then paid again for the messaging that would convince them to accept masks, lockdowns, and experimental interventions. The system is so confident in its psychological control that it doesn’t even bother hiding the evidence anymore. As I’ve documented in my Engineering Reality series, this framework for consciousness management runs far deeper than most can imagine. USAID’s revelations aren’t isolated incidents – they’re glimpses into a vast system of social design that has been in operation for decades. When the same agency funding your fact-checkers is openly paying for ‘social deception,’ when your trusted news sources are receiving direct payments for ‘social architecture,’ the very framework of what we consider ‘real’ begins to crumble. We’re not just watching events unfold – we’re watching reactions to artificial events, then reactions to those reactions, creating an infinite regression of derivative meaning. People form passionate positions about issues that were constructed, then others define themselves in opposition to those positions. Each layer of reaction fuels the next phase of steered consensus. What we’re witnessing isn’t just the spread of manufactured realities, but the architecture of cultural and geopolitical trends themselves. Artificial trends spawn authentic reactions, which generate counter-reactions, until we’ve built entire societies responding to carefully orchestrated theater. The social engineers aren’t just steering individual beliefs – they’re reshaping the very foundations of how humans make sense of the world. These revelations are just the tip of the iceberg. Anyone paying attention to the depth and depravity of the corruption knows that this is only the beginning. As more information emerges, the illusion of neutrality, of benevolence, of institutions acting in the public interest, will crumble. No one who truly engages with this information is walking away with renewed faith in the system. The shift is only happening in one direction – some faster than others, but none in reverse. The real question is: what happens when a critical mass reaches the point where their foundational understanding of the world collapses? When they realize that the records shaping their perception were never organic, but manufactured? Some will refuse to look, choosing comfort over confrontation. But for those willing to face it, this is not just about corruption – it’s about the very nature of the reality they thought they inhabited. The implications are staggering not just for individual awareness, but for our very ability to function as a republic. How can citizens make informed decisions when reality itself has been splintered into competing manufactured tales? When people discover that their most deeply held beliefs were shaped, that their passionate causes were scripted, that even their cultural interests and tastes were curated, that their opposition to certain systems was anticipated and designed – what remains of authentic human experience? What’s coming will force a choice: either retreat into comfortable denial, dismissing mounting evidence as “right-wing conspiracy theories,” or face the shattering realization that the world we thought we inhabited never actually existed. My research over the past few years points to far more nefarious activities yet to be revealed – operations so heinous that many will simply refuse to process them. As I wrote about in “The Second Matrix,” there’s always the risk of falling into another layer of controlled awakening. But the greater risk lies in thinking too small, in anchoring ourselves to any single thread of understanding. The USAID revelations aren’t just about exposing one agency’s role in shaping reality – they’re about recognizing how our very thought patterns have been colonized by recursive layers of artificial reality. This is the true crisis of our time: not just the manipulation of reality, but the fragmentation of human consciousness itself. When people grasp that their beliefs, causes, and even their resistance were shaped within this system, they are forced to confront the deeper question: What does it mean to reclaim one’s own mind? But here’s what they don’t want you to realize: seeing through these systems is profoundly liberating. When you understand how reality is constructed, you’re no longer bound by its artificial constraints. This isn’t just about exposing deception – it’s about freeing consciousness itself from manufactured limitations. The jig may be up on USAID’s reality architecture operation. But the deeper challenge lies in reconstructing meaning in a world where the very fabric of reality has been woven from artificial threads. The choice we face isn’t just between comfortable illusion and uncomfortable truth. The old system demanded validation before belief. The new reality requires something else entirely: the ability to recognize patterns before they’re officially confirmed, to feel coherence across multiple domains, to step outside the crafted game completely. This isn’t about choosing sides in their manufactured binaries – it’s about seeing the pattern architecture itself. What does this liberation look like in practice? It’s catching the pattern of a manufactured crisis before it’s fully deployed. It’s recognizing how seemingly unrelated events – a banking collapse, a health emergency, a social movement – are actually nodes in the same network of control. It’s understanding that true sovereignty isn’t about having all the answers, but about developing the capacity to sense the web of deception before it solidifies into apparent reality. Because the ultimate power isn’t in knowing every answer – it’s in realizing when the question itself has been designed to trap you inside the manufactured paradigm. As we develop this pattern recognition capacity – this ability to see through algorithmic manipulation – what it means to be human is itself evolving. As these systems of ideological infrastructure crumble, our task isn’t just to preserve individual awakening but to protect and nurture the most conscious elements of humanity. The ultimate liberation isn’t just seeing through the deception – it’s maintaining our essential humanity in a world of tightly controlled perception. As these systems of reality sculpting crumble, we have an unprecedented opportunity to rediscover what’s real – not through their manufactured frameworks, but through our own direct experience of truth. What’s authentic isn’t always what’s organic – in a mediated world, authenticity means conscious choice rather than unconscious reaction. It means understanding how our minds are shaped while maintaining our capacity for genuine connection, creative expression, and direct experience. The most human elements – love, creativity, intuition, genuine discovery – become more precious precisely because they defy algorithmic control. These are the last frontiers of human freedom—the unpredictable, unquantifiable forces that cannot be reduced to data points or behavioral models. The ultimate battle isn’t just for truth – it’s for the human spirit itself. A system that can engineer perception can engineer submission. But there’s a beautiful irony here: the very act of recognizing these systems of reality construction is itself an expression of authentic consciousness – a choice that proves they haven’t conquered human perception completely. Free will cannot be engineered precisely because the capacity to see through engineered reality remains ours. In the end, their greatest fear isn’t that we’ll reject their manufactured world – it’s that we’ll remember how to see beyond it. Republished from the author’s Substack Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 23:25
Iran 'Incredibly Weakened' By Over 200 US Strikes On Houthis: White House
1743562800 from ZEROHEDGE
Iran 'Incredibly Weakened' By Over 200 US Strikes On Houthis: White House The White House on Tuesday declared that Iran has been "incredibly" weakened as a result of the Pentagon operation against Yemen's Houthis which was renewed on March 15 by President Trump and his national security cabinet. Immense controversy has ensued in the wake of 'Signalgate' which involved discussions of war planning with Atlantic journalist Jeffrey Goldberg privy to the group chat conversation. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said there's has been over 200 strikes on targets in Yemen. It has long been a US talking point going back to 2015 that the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) has been supplied by the Iranians. Shipments of Iranian weaponry has over the years been intercepted by US naval ships in Gulf area waters. US Navy image The group has fired at least eight ballistic missiles on Israel over the past week, but the US is leading the way in anti-Houthi operations. "There have now been more than 200 successful strikes," Leavitt said. "Iran is incredibly weakened as a result. They’ve taken out Houthi leaders, critical members who have been launching strikes on naval ships and commercial vessels. This operation will not stop until the freedom of navigation in this region is restored." The Houthis haven't confirmed the deaths of any leaders, nor has the US side acknowledged the repeat attacks on US warships or the carrier USS Truman. According to some of the latest: According to a brief statement broadcast by the Houthi-run al-Masirah TV, five airstrikes at dawn targeted the Jarban area in the Sanhan district southeast of Sanaa, while two others hit the Bani Matar district west of the capital. The statement further indicated that Saada, a stronghold of the group, was subjected to 15 U.S. airstrikes overnight, but did not disclose specific locations targeted. Israeli media and The Associated Press have meanwhile said that these last two weeks of strikes on Yemen have been far more devasting than similar aerial assaults under Biden. According to a report featured in center-left Times of Israel: A new American airstrike campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels appears more intense and more extensive, as the US moves from solely targeting launch sites to firing at ranking personnel as well as dropping bombs in city neighborhoods, an Associated Press review of the operation shows. The pattern under US President Donald Trump reflects a departure from the Biden administration, which limited its strikes as Arab allies tried to reach a separate peace with the group. It comes after the Iran-backed Houthis threatened to resume attacking “any Israeli vessel” over the country’s refusal to allow aid into the Gaza Strip. Both sides appear content to keep mum on the extent of 'success' of the back-and-forth attacks. But the consensus among war analysts is that if the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping is to be rooted out, it will take a long, sustained campaign - which we should note has not had formal war authorization from Congress. "Folks that say, ‘We’ll go in there and take out everyone with the last name Houthi and we’ll win.’ The Houthi leadership has been taken out in history in the past, and they are resilient,” said retired US Navy Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, per AFP. “They came back and they grew stronger. So this isn’t something that is a one-and-done.” .@PressSec: "These Houthi strikes have been incredibly successful. Last time I was at this podium, there were more than 100 successful strikes. There have now been over 200 successful strikes -- Iran is incredibly weakened as a result of these attacks." pic.twitter.com/FEPyvFH5c8 — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 1, 2025 As for Iran, it costs little for it to wage proxy war against US Navy ships positioned in the region. In a sense, the Pentagon is in the Iranians' backyard. Already, the Houthis have claimed to have downed the 16th US MQ-9 Reaper drone as of Tuesday, which hasn't been acknowledged as yet by the Pentagon. The controversy over the scope of US actions will likely only grow among the American populace. Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 23:00
FBI Weaponizes Background Checks To Enforce California Gun Ban
1743558300 from ZEROHEDGE
FBI Weaponizes Background Checks To Enforce California Gun Ban Submitted by Gun Owners of America, When you go to a gun store to buy a new gun, you can expect a few things to happen. First, some paperwork. Second, you can expect to have to pass a background check before leaving with your gun. And third, you can expect that the gun store will keep a record of your purchase for as long as the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives ("ATF") requires. After all, that is how the government traces crime guns back to their original purchasers. But what you might not expect is an FBI agent receiving a ping that you – yes, you – just successfully bought a gun. And you might be surprised to learn that this agent has been receiving notifications of your purchases for months – or years. Of course, such a surveillance scheme would be flatly unconstitutional – not to mention a violation of several safeguards already codified in federal law. Yet slowly but surely, the government has been building a record of the private collections of thousands of American citizens, even though federal law expressly prohibits that "any system of registration of firearms, firearms owners, or firearms transactions or dispositions" be established. Of course, even though they are being monitored, these victims remain law-abiding, meaning the government has no probable cause to justify seeking a warrant authorizing such a search in the first place. Now, Gun Owners of America has discovered that the FBI has been using its Second Amendment surveillance program not only to enforce federal law, but also to help California target owners of newly banned "assault weapons." FBI's NICS Monitoring Scheme When news first broke of the FBI and ATF's joint "NICS Monitoring" surveillance scheme, the public was shocked. As journalist John Crump reported in April of 2021, "monitoring of NICS isn't for prohibited people," but rather those who are eligible to purchase firearms but who law enforcement agents nevertheless suspect might commit a crime. GOA learned that targets of NICS Monitoring – which exploits records in the National Instant Criminal Background Check System ("NICS") before they are deleted within 24 hours – never receive notice that their firearm transactions are being monitored. Thus, there is no way to challenge the FBI's surveillance. In fact, in order to enroll a target for NICS Monitoring, an agent only needs to complete an internal request form. At no point does an agent seeking NICS Monitoring have to convince a judge (or anyone other than himself, really) that this surveillance comports with the Fourth Amendment. Entirely usurpingly, then, the FBI's abuse of NICS Monitoring is rampant. Rampant Abuse of NICS Monitoring After the NICS Monitoring scandal went public, GOA filed Freedom of Information Act ("FOIA") requests with the FBI and ATF seeking further records. Naturally these agencies, the program's biggest abusers, were less than forthcoming with evidence of their clandestine activities, and GOA ultimately had to file suit to compel production of documents. The subsequent document productions were illuminating. They revealed a pattern of surveillance abuse so pervasive that federal agents could obtain NICS Monitoring based on anonymous tips. As GOA reviewed more documents and public scrutiny increased, more and more abuses came to light. For example, in one case an ATF agent requested NICS Monitoring of a man who had purchased a shotgun during the George Floyd riots, on the theory that he "may use a gun for rioting." In another case, an ATF agent requested NICS Monitoring of a man whose "reported wage earnings" did not "appear to supply the financial means to afford" firearms. And in another case, ATF had a man monitored who merely "had a 'habit' of purchasing new guns, tinkering with them, losing interest, and subsequently selling them." Thus, it would seem that self-defense, having a savings account, and a tinkering hobby – although perfectly lawful activities – are justification to have one's gun purchases surveilled indefinitely. NICS Monitoring Is Unconstitutional and Unlawful The FBI's surveillance scheme violates the Second and Fourth Amendment rights of gun owners. The Founders never sanctioned governmental monitoring of Americans' gun purchases. Moreover, the Founders specifically required that all searches be reasonable, almost always meaning that they are based on warrants issued upon a finding of probable cause. The FBI's NICS Monitoring program respects neither right. NICS Monitoring also violates a number of provisions of federal law. In anticipation that the NICS system would be abused to track gun owners, Congress has mandated that the FBI destroy all NICS records of "approved" firearm transactions within 24 hours. The FBI's copying and pasting of certain records out of the NICS system before they can be deleted clearly contravenes the 24-hour destruction requirement. NICS Monitoring also violates the federal prohibition on the creation of registries of gun owners – a prohibition so important that Congress codified it twice: once generally, and once specifically with respect to NICS. FBI Now Aiding State Gun Control Efforts If the NICS Monitoring program's history thus far was not troubling enough, GOA has made a shocking new discovery – that, since at least 2023, the FBI has been surveilling gun owners on behalf of anti-gun states. And to make matters worse, the FBI's surveillance involves firearm sales that are perfectly legal under federal law. In one FBI NICS Monitoring submission, an FBI Special Agent from the agency's Chicago field office cited the following suspected violations of California law to justify a sixth-month monitoring period: "MFG/SELL/TRANS/ETC ASSAULT WPN (30600(A) PC), STATE OFFENSE CODE 52509, FELONY 2; ILL POSS ANY ASSAULT WEAPON (30605(A) PC), STATE OFFENSE CODE 52510. FELONY." Just how a federal background check approval would constitute evidence of unlawful state possession of an "assault weapon" within California, the agent did not say. Nor did the agent seem to recognize that it is entirely possible to possess a firearm (or even have a residence) in a neighboring state and lawfully purchase and possess an "assault weapon" there without committing a California crime. And regardless of California law, it is entirely unclear how it furthers the FBI's mission to prosecute violent crime by monitoring gun purchases that are completely legal under federal law. Tellingly, the FBI refused to release further details of its investigation into the California gun owner, asserting a so-called "privacy Glomar" as to those details. In other words, the FBI ridiculously refuses to acknowledge the existence of redacted information that it has already produced. Thus, we are left with more questions than answers: What is the FBI doing worrying about violations of California's ban of pejoratively labeled "assault weapons"? Is the enforcement of state gun control laws really an FBI priority, such that Second and Fourth Amendment rights are thrown by the wayside? We hope FBI Director Kash Patel can answer these questions and dismantle this unlawful and unconstitutional program once and for all. Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 21:45