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In Historic Shift, British Newspapers Begin Warning Of "Perils" Of Cashless-Society After Global IT Outage
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In Historic Shift, British Newspapers Begin Warning Of "Perils" Of Cashless-Society After Global IT Outage Authored by Nick Corbishley via NakedCapitalism.com, The mainstream media has, until now, played a key role in advancing the Global War on Cash - a war that began with no official declaration but in which propaganda, as with all wars, is a vital weapon. Last week’s global IT outage appears to have shaken some British media outlets’ confidence in the idea of a fully cashless society. When a content update by the cyber-security giant CrowdStrike caused millions of Microsoft systems around the world to crash on Friday morning, bringing the operating systems of banks, payment card firms, airlines, hospitals, NHS clinics, retailers and hospitality businesses to a standstill, businesses were faced with a stark choice: go cash-only, or close until the systems came back online. From WIRED magazine: This quickly caused chaos in Australia, whose government has explicitly encouraged businesses to go cashless. Pictures posted on social media showed card-only self-checkout registers at the grocery chain Coles displaying Blue Screens of Death (BSODs). Queues for human-run registers at Australian groceries stretched to the back of the store, according to local media. Some Australian marts simply locked their doors… Starbucks—whose then-CEO said in 2020 was shifting “toward more cashless experiences”—appeared to have been particularly hard hit. One Kansas-based Starbucks worker posted a TikTok showing that the mobile order system was “completely down.” The machine that the store uses to print labels for cups was also not working. “It just comes out blank every time,” she said, gesturing to the label printer. She tells WIRED that some customers were “upset and very rude” when she tried to explain. A different Starbucks worker said on TikTok that she had to write down every order on sticky notes. Richard Forno, a cybersecurity lecturer at the University of Maryland, tells WIRED that Friday’s outage demonstrates the vulnerability of our current cloud and internet infrastructure. “Software supply chains have long been a serious cybersecurity concern and potential single point of failure,” Forno says. “Given today’s events, with any luck, perhaps the world may finally realize that our modern information- and often cloud-based society is based on a very fragile foundation that’s not built for security or resiliency.” (A Microsoft spokesperson did not respond directly to this assessment.) Here on NC, we have periodically discussed (including here, here, here and here) the hyper-fragility of our tightly coupled IT-based societies, particularly on the banking and payments side of things. In March, UK citizens had a foretaste of the inherent fragility of a cashless economy after the payment systems of the country’s two largest supermarket chains, Tesco and Sainsbury’s, went down on the same day. Then, as on Friday, cash provided a vital, albeit imperfect, fall-back mechanism for citizens and businesses. Cash Does Not Crash This is one of the most important arguments in favour of cash: the resilience it provides to a country’s overarching payments system. Put another way, cash does not crash. It does not fail in a power cut or seize up during a cyber attack or software outage (though, of course, ATMs might). By contrast, digital payment systems generally need a stable and continuous internet connection and power supply to process transactions. This is a lesson central bankers in Sweden, one of the world’s most cashless economies, are apparently relearning. From our recent piece, “The World’s Oldest Central Bank Keeps Sounding Alarm on Fragility of Cashless Economies. Are Other Central Banks Listening?” After playing a part in the wholesale removal of cash from Sweden’s economy, the Riksbank is now trying to reverse some of the damage it has caused. It is not the only Scandinavian central bank to have flagged up the fragility risks of exclusively digital payment systems. In 2022, the Bank of Finland recommended that the use of cash payments be guaranteed by law. Like all Nordic countries, Finland is a largely cash-free economy. But like Sweden, it has begun to see the risks of going too far, too soon. It seems that certain legacy media outlets may also finally be learning this lesson. In the UK alone, four of the country’s largest newspapers — The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, The Times and The Daily Mail — have run articles on how the global IT outage has underscored the fragility of a cashless society. The Daily Mail plastered the message across its front page: From that article: Critics said the havoc showed the dangers of a cashless world, with almost half of Britons now leaving the house with only their phones as a means of payment… Dennis Reed, director of the Silver Voices campaign group which represents older people, said: ‘It’s extremely worrying. This should be a big warning for the Government. Obviously it has affected older people particularly, not just with the cash side of things but GP appointments and everything else. ‘If people can’t pay because they can’t use their phone then when systems go down – and they always will – people won’t be able to access vital services, food, and the essentials of life. ‘With this ever-more digital society, we are reliant on it all working. But we have no control over it. We are putting all our eggs in one basket. The future security of the nation is in danger.’ Martin Quinn, campaign director at the Payment Choice Alliance, told The Daily Telegraph: ‘With IT outages happening now at alarming regularity, businesses should be mindful of only taking card payments. ‘However many supermarkets prefer to have self-service card-only tills, which makes cash users feel like second-class citizens, a concerted effort is needed to return to using and accepting cash, because cash never crashes.’ Media’s Role in Global War on Cash Over the past couple of decades, the mainstream media has played a crucial role in advancing the Global War on Cash — a war that began with no official declaration but in which propaganda, as with all wars, has been a vital weapon. The mainstream and financial media have provided a perfect platform for that propaganda. In 2007, when contactless payments were barely getting off the ground, Guillermo de la Dehesa, a Spanish economist, former senior civil servant and then-international adviser to Banco Santander and Goldman Sachs, singled out cash as the major source of crime and evil in an El Pais article titled “The Great Advantage of a Cashless World”: “Without cash, we would live in a much safer, less violent world with enhanced social cohesion, since the major incentive fuelling all illegal activity [i.e. cash]… would disappear.” In 2013, Mastercard sponsored an Oxford University “trial” into the germ loads found on the banknotes of a selection of global currencies. Mastercard reserved the exclusive right to present the findings of the trial as well as the results of a highly misleading survey on public perceptions of the health risks of cash, which it did in gaudy glory. As the German financial journalist Norbert Häring documented in his article, “How Mastercard Invented the Health Hazard of Cash,“ the global media did the rest of the work. United States CNN, March 28: “If you thought dirty money was only found in offshore bank accounts, check your wallet instead. But you may want to wash your hands afterward. […]. An Oxford University study found an average of 26,000 bacteria on bank notes.” Source Switzerland Blick, March 26: “Disgusting money: many Swiss find cash unhygienic[.] 64 percent of Swiss people find their cash unhygienic. No wonder, since it is particularly dirty.” Source The Local, March 27: “[…] a study by researchers at Oxford University concludes that legal tender in Switzerland is among the dirtiest in Europe […].” Source France Le Monde, April 1: “Is Cash Dirty?” Source UK Metro, March 26: “More than half of Brits fear germ risk from filthy money – with good reason[.]” Source Etc…… This was just a dress rehearsal for what was to come in 2020. At the very onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, when public panic was surging, a World Health Organization official responded to a question about whether banknotes could spread the coronavirus with a qualified “yes.” In the hours and days that followed legacy media outlets around the world pounced on the comments and magnified them, sparking fears about the safety of using cash. It worked like a dream. As the graphic below (courtesy of Visual Capitalist) shows, four years on cash is being used for transactions far less frequently in most countries, in large part due to the exaggerated safety fears propagated by the media. Central bankers themselves have admitted that the pandemic played a key role in accelerating the mass abandonment of cash and adoption of contactless, mobile and online payments. As the author and cash advocate Brett Scott notes, since the pandemic the private sector has turbocharged its anti-cash drive, “as Big Finance, Big Tech and Big Retail have weaponised the public’s temporary fear of physical contact to amplify the anti-cash automation agenda that they already had.” But at the same time, the amount of cash in circulation has actually surged in many jurisdictions. When the pandemic began, central banks around the world recorded a sharp increase in cash withdrawn from ATMs while at the same time registering a sharp fall in transactional usage of cash. Put simply, people still wanted cash but often as a means of storing their money outside the banking system at a time of crisis. In some countries, including the UK and Spain, the use of cash has staged a moderate recovery in the last couple of years as people’s priorities have shifted from (largely manufactured) concerns about hygiene during a global pandemic to making ends meet amid soaring inflation. But media outlets around the world have continued to churn out articles, columns and op-eds demonising cash and gleefully foretelling its imminent death. A recent op-ed in the Sydney Morning Herald declared in its title that “Cash is Dead,” only to then ask: “Why Are We Still Pretending to Use It?” — as if the 13% of Australians still using cash on a regular basis are just pretending. In September 2023, the Washington Post‘s Data Department ran a more informative and less insulting piece titled “Paper Checks are Dead, Cash is Dying. Who Still Uses Them?” Doubts Setting In But doubts appear to be setting in as the IT outages affecting payments systems become increasingly frequent and larger. The mere fact that some of the UK’s biggest newspapers, as well as other media organisations around the world including Yahoo Finance Australia, are now discussing the inherent fragility risks of a fully cashless society represents an important shift. The Guardian, for example, reports that the Crowdstrike outage has shown the “dangers of a cashless society” — according to cash campaigners. “There will always be outages,” Ron Delnevo, the chair of the Payment Choice Alliance, told the newspaper. “But if there is no alternative, then the whole thing can collapse around you.” Last year, cash payments in the UK increased for the first time in a decade, the article notes. The number of people who never use cash, or use it less than once a month, also declined. In China and the US, businesses have been fined for not accepting cash. In the UK, by contrast, businesses can choose which forms of payment to accept (and which not to). Delnevo told The Guardian that the UK should have a law requiring all businesses to accept cash (within certain parameters), as is already the case in my country of residence, Spain. Unfortunately, that is as unlikely to happen under a government led by Kier Starmer as one led by Rishi Sunak, both of whom are in thrall to the WEF’s techno-tyrannical agenda. The Daily Telegraph‘s Money Editor, Johanna Noble, argues that people should ultimately have a choice about which payment method to use in each given transaction while warning that the UK is clearly “nowhere near ready to go cashless”: And do we have to be? Does it have to be binary? Sometimes paying with cash (small shops, the tooth fairy, car boot sales) might be best, while in other circumstances paying by card (getting consumer protection when buying goods or services) will be better. In May, an editorial in The Guardian cautioned that the most vulnerable in society will ultimately bear the costs of a cashless economy: Cutting out cash hits the vulnerable hardest: according to a 2020 survey by the Financial Conduct Authority, 46% of the digitally excluded, 31% of those without educational qualifications, and 26% of those in poor health rely on it to a “great or very great extent”. Mencap warned the Welsh Senedd that people with learning disabilities can find it hard to manage money without cash. And there are good, as well as nefarious, reasons to value its anonymising quality: women whose abortion rights have been restricted might find it life-saving. Businesses should think carefully before refusing cash payments. Governments must ensure that people reliant on cash can continue to use it: in the UK, where thousands of bank branches and ATMs have vanished, the Financial Conduct Authority now has powers to protect access. But even if the supply of notes and coins can be assured, authorities must also ensure that services accept them. In the UK, there is no law preventing businesses from rejecting cash. Legal tender traditionally has a very narrow definition in the UK, and strictly applies to money used by a debtor to settle a court-awarded debt when offered (‘tendered’) in the exact amount that is owed to a creditor. In other words, if a debtor is offering to settle a debt in court with legal tender such as cash, the creditor is not allowed to refuse it. Shops and hospitality businesses, by contrast, are. Many retailers, particularly in the more salubrious parts of towns and cities, have taken full advantage of this loophole, despite the discriminatory effects it has on the millions of people who still depend on cash, including the roughly 1.3 million who are unbanked. Whether retailers continue to do this following the global chaos uncorked by one US tech firm’s botched content update (?) remains to be seen. One thing is clear: UK citizens and businesses have had their fair share of warnings about the fragility of cashless economics. Tyler Durden Wed, 07/24/2024 - 03:30
Combustion Going Bust? Mapping The Global Govt-Driven Phase-Outs Of Gasoline Cars
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Combustion Going Bust? Mapping The Global Govt-Driven Phase-Outs Of Gasoline Cars As of 2024, 60 countries and territories around the world had set targets, signed pledges or announced plans to phase out gasoline and diesel cars by a concrete date - a move that climate scientists call absolutely necessary and that is seen as vital for countries to achieve net zero carbon emissions. You will find more infographics at Statista The earliest phase-out of this kind is set to happen soon in Norway, which has been an electric mobility pioneer. Relevant announcements for the middle of the century followed more recently from the likes of Vietnam and Indonesia, according to Coltura. As Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, the area with most bans in preparation is Europe, where the European Union approved a law in early 2023 that will outlaw the sale of gasoline engine cars in its member states from 2035. However, a lot of back and forth has since ensued. For Germany (as well as for Italy, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Hungary), the bill set a first deadline for the sale of gasoline-powered cars. In a move that CNN called extraordinary, the country known for its car industry spearheaded an initiative pressing for a loophole for synthetic fuels before the final adoption of the new rules. Several European Union countries had already embraced the phase-out of gasoline cars previously and have set even tighter deadlines. The Netherlands, Belgium's Flanders region, Sweden, Greece and Slovenia are all looking to end the sale of gas-powered cars even earlier, between 2029 and 2031. The only country in the world beating this is Norway, where around 80 percent of new cars sold are already fully electric and 100 percent are scheduled to be in 2025. Similar to the situation in the EU, gasoline car phase-outs caused disagreements among U.S. states when California in 2022 set a phase-out date for new sales of these vehicles, also for 2035. While 17 states had previously tied their vehicle standards to California's under the Federal Clean Air Act, only Washington, Oregon, Massachusetts, New York and Vermont have went along with California's decision while Connecticut and Delaware pulled out at the last minute. While hybrids were initially expected to be phased out as well, some advanced hybrids with large battery power will now be allowed in participating states. Other nations treating hybrids favorably in their phase-outs are Canada, Slovenia, Singapore and Japan, but most nations want them gone also by the time their ban date comes up. Asian nation Sri Lanka has been setting the toughest goals of any country, issuing not just a phase-out of new gasoline car sales, but a full road ban for combustion engine cars, tuk-tuks and motorcycles by 2040. The country has in the recent past already attracted international attention for issuing sweeping legislation whose implementation proved problematic. For some smaller countries without their own carmakers or their subsidiaries, a gas car phase-out can actually be easier to implement in some ways. Cape Verde, which along with several other nations around the globe signed the COP26 declaration to ban the sale of new combustion engine cars by 2040, internally set the goal to achieve this feat even earlier, by 2035. To do so, it would merely have to ban the import of gas-powered cars close to that date. Tyler Durden Wed, 07/24/2024 - 02:45
Inside The EU's War On Free Speech
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Inside The EU's War On Free Speech Authored by Thomas Fazi via UnHerd.com, The latest salvo in the ongoing battle between between Elon Musk and the EU came courtesy of the X owner. He revealed that in the run-up to the European elections, X was offered “an illegal secret deal”: if the platform would agree to secretly censoring online speech, then the European Commission wouldn’t fine it for violations of its new online content moderation law, the Digital Services Act (DSA). X refused to cooperate, but all the other major platforms accepted the deal. Musk’s revelation came shortly after Thierry Breton, the EU’s censorship czar, announced the Commission’s preliminary findings that X’s new “blue check” verification system was in violation of the DSA. Given that anyone can now subscribe and obtain a “verified status” — unlike before Musk when the platform arbitrarily decided who was worthy of the coveted blue check — this, he stated, undermines users’ ability to make informed decisions about account authenticity. The Commission also accused X of “fail[ing] to provide access to its public data to researchers”, as mandated by the DSA. It urged the company to address such breaches or face a fine up to 6% of its total worldwide annual turnover, which was approximately $3.4 billion in 2023. Failure to comply could result in X being banned from operating in the EU altogether. The line trotted out by the Commission is that this all about “transparency” and protecting users from deception and disinformation. But the truth, as Musk suggests, is that this is really about the EU’s desire — and the DSA’s ultimate goal — to secretly control the online narrative. So much for transparency. This mission to censor has been backed up by Mike Benz, a former Trump official and cybersecurity expert who has alleged that “granting researchers access to X’s public data” isn’t quite as benign as it sounds. In fact, it’s a cover for the EU’s attempt to “use the DSA to force X to restaff the censorship squad fired when Elon took over”. Elon got rid of the team because, as the Twitter Files revealed, their sole purpose was to act upon government requests for censorship. Hence Benz’s claim that these “researchers” are actually “political operatives”. Musk reposted Benz’s analysis with one word of comment — “Exactly” — adding that if the EU pursues an enforcement action against X, he will take them to court. The language and accusations are nothing new. The ground rules for this battle were laid the moment Musk took over Twitter and tweeted “the bird is freed”. Breton immediately replied: “In Europe, the bird will fly by our rules,” with a reference to the DSA, which had been officially signed into law that same month. Even though Musk initially pledged to “respect the future European regulation”, the honeymoon didn’t last long. In May 2023, he pulled out of the EU’s Code of Practice on Disinformation, which started out voluntary but was subsequently made de facto legally binding under the DSA. This triggered an investigation, in December, into whether the platform violated the DSA in areas such as “risk management, content moderation, dark patterns, advertising transparency and data access for researchers”. Last week it concluded that it did, hence the latest showdown. It’s hard to see how Musk can win this battle. Especially considering that his pro-free speech stance hasn’t just put him toe-to-toe with the EU, but also with a number of other governments around the world. Musk has attacked “takedown” requests in Brazil, India, Australia and Turkey and has even challenged some of these demands through national courts. In almost every case, however, the platform has ended up complying with governments’ requests. Indeed, a report from last year showed that under Musk, X had approved more than 80% of censorship requests from governments. “It’s hard to see how Musk can win this battle.” So even as Musk publicly challenges the EU, he is removing posts — as many X users have lamented — because of non-compliance with the DSA. On 10 October, for example, days after Hamas’s attack, Breton issued a warning to Musk over alleged “disinformation”; X responded by immediately removing or flagging tens of thousands of pieces of content. Accusing Musk of hypocrisy, however, would be to miss the point. Complying with these requests is often the only way that the company can continue to operate — and at least Musk, unlike the other major platform owners, has brought online censorship into the open. The publication of the groundbreaking Twitter Files, remember, revealed the shocking level of collusion between the US administration and social media companies. More to the point, though, X, despite the censorship, remains the only platform where information is allowed to flow relatively freely. Indeed, it remains the single biggest threat to the establishment’s desire for full-spectrum information control — and that is why they are coming down on it so hard. But one man, no matter how rich or powerful, cannot be expected to single-handedly stand up to some of the most powerful governments in the world — let alone to the European Union, the world’s most influential supranational institution. There’s also another factor to consider. The global attack on free speech isn’t just the whim of out-of-control, power-hungry politicians and bureaucrats. It’s a systemic problem that relates to the structural decay of liberal-democratic institutions, particularly in the West. As our societies degenerate into de facto oligarchies controlled by increasingly delegitimised political-economic elites, this manipulation of public opinion — not only through propaganda delivered via traditional mass media channels but also, increasingly, by policing and micromanaging the public conversation taking place on social media platforms — has come to be seen as an imperative for keeping the status quo safe from the threat of democracy. This is compounded by the growing militarisation of the geopolitical context, which requires an even more compliant populace given its political and economic consequences. It’s no coincidence that the censorship-industrial complex started emerging in the second half of the 2010s. This was the time when the West was rocked by an unprecedented “populist” backlash against globalisation and the neoliberal order — Trump, Brexit, the Yellow Vests, and the rise of Eurosceptic parties and movements across Europe. It was also when the path of future confrontation with Russia was being laid in Ukraine — and when Nato started developing the hybrid or cognitive warfare doctrine, which conceptualises the management of Western public opinion as an integral part of warfare. As Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s former Secretary General, put it in 2019: “Nato must remain prepared for both conventional and hybrid threats: from tanks to tweets.” The Covid-19 pandemic, which saw the first mass deployment of online censorship, bought Western elites some time. But not for long. Today, a “populist” backlash is once again engulfing the West: Right-populist parties are surging across Europe, and Trump is on course to winning the next US election. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in Ukraine have detonated into a no-longer-so-proxy war between Nato and Russia. From the perspective of Western elites, this all calls for a doubling down on the censorship regime, with a major difference: online censorship used to occur behind closed doors, extra-legally and in a context of plausible deniability of behalf of governments; today it is being institutionalised and constitutionalised through tools such as the Digital Services. Elites conveniently justify their censorship in two ways: by constantly expanding the scope of “hate speech” to cover almost anything; and, more ominously, by rebranding critical opinions, especially on foreign policy and geopolitical matters, as “disinformation” or examples of foreign interference. It’s no coincidence that the European Commission’s first-ever DSA report was entirely focused on the question of “Russian disinformation”. Tellingly, the report puts “Kremlin-aligned accounts” — potentially any account that is critical of Nato — almost on the same plane as accounts that are connected or associated with the Russian state. This deliberate blurring of the line between illegal and harmful speech, and between critical opinion and foreign propaganda, is central to the censorship regime, as it effectively allows EU elites to determine what hundreds of millions of Europeans can or cannot say and read online. It’s state-sanctioned censorship, plain and simple. And it should come as no surprise that the greatest threat to free speech today comes from the EU: the bloc’s entire institutional edifice, after all, is geared towards constraining democracy, by transferring power to unaccountable elites largely insulated from the demos. In turn, the top-down imposition of unpopular policies on the people of Europe inevitably engenders opposition, which then requires the suppression of free speech to counter the backlash. It’s a vicious feedback loop. This sort of mass censorship should really be understood as a desperate oligarchy’s last line of defence - and no one encapsulates this oligarchy better than Breton himself, a former businessman and military and intelligence contractor turned technocrat-in-chief. If this were a movie, one couldn’t imagine a better choice than him as the arch-enemy of the populist rabble-rouser Musk. But it isn’t a movie. This is a struggle that will define the future of democracy for years to come. And if we expect Musk to fight for the rest of us, we’ve already lost. Tyler Durden Wed, 07/24/2024 - 02:00
World War 3: The Catalyst For A New World Order
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World War 3: The Catalyst For A New World Order Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com, The F-22 Raptor is the best air dominance warplane in the world. It’s the top dog fighter jet. The F-22’s advanced avionics, stealth capabilities, and maneuverability make it an unmatched platform for hunting and killing other aircraft. While Russia, China, and several other nations have their own air dominance fighters, it’s doubtful they would fare well against an F-22 in air-to-air combat. In short, the F-22 is critical to the US Air Force’s ability to control the skies in a potential conflict with a sophisticated enemy. That’s why the F-22 Raptor is one of the few warplane models the US government does not export to any foreign country—not even to Israel or its NATO allies. The F-22’s highly advanced stealth capabilities give it a significant edge over other air dominance fighter jets. In air-to-air combat, enemy fighter jets probably wouldn’t even know there was a Raptor nearby until it was too late. The potential presence of an F-22 in an area would give any hostile air force an excellent reason to think twice before challenging the US Air Force. That’s why the US stations F-22s in Japan as a deterrent to China’s air force should it make a move on Taiwan, for example. However, all of this could change soon… and have enormous geopolitical implications. The South China Morning Post has remained Hong Kong’s newspaper of record since British colonial rule. They recently published a bombshell article claiming that Chinese researchers had developed a new radar detection technology that neutralizes the F-22’s stealth capabilities. They claim that China’s radar system can now accurately pinpoint an F-22’s real-time position. This information could then be relayed to interceptor fighter jets or surface-to-air missile batteries to target the F-22. If the claims are true, the impact on the F-22’s combat effectiveness would be huge. It would mean the US is unlikely to dominate the skies in a conflict with China. That has tremendous consequences for the island of Taiwan. Taiwan considers itself an independent nation with its own government, military, and foreign relations. However, China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has vowed to reunify it with the mainland by force if necessary. Recently, Xi privately warned Biden that China would reunify Taiwan, but the timing had not yet been decided. While not explicitly committing to Taiwan’s defense, the US has been a significant supplier of military equipment to Taiwan. A Chinese invasion could trigger a response from the US military, though the extent and nature of this response are uncertain. China has one of the world’s largest and increasingly modern militaries. Taiwan has a well-trained military, though smaller and less equipped than China’s. In a military conflict, China seems to have the advantage. The only way Taiwan would have a prayer is if the US directly joined the conflict. The US government has conducted various war games to simulate and prepare for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. A key finding from these war games is that maintaining air superiority is critical for the US military to defend Taiwan successfully. In other words, if the US cannot dominate the skies above Taiwan, it probably won’t be successful in repelling a Chinese invasion. If the Chinese have compromised the F-22’s stealth capabilities, then I think it’s unlikely the US will achieve air superiority in case of a conflict in Taiwan. And if they can’t achieve air superiority, then their efforts are likely doomed to failure. If the US understands that intervening in Taiwan is doomed to failure, they are likely to leave Taiwan to its fate, which means China will be successful in reunifying it with the mainland. That would be a geopolitical earthquake and could fatally undermine the current US-led world order. Taiwan is one of the three key proxy wars that will, I think, be decisive in who wins World War 3. While many don’t realize it, World War 3 is already underway. World War 3 and the New World Order Total war between the world’s largest powers that reshuffled the international order defined the previous world wars. However, with the advent of nuclear weapons, total war between the largest powers today—Russia, China, and the US—means a nuclear Armageddon where there are no winners and only losers. That could still happen despite nobody wanting it, but it’s not the most likely outcome. World War 3 is unlikely to be a direct kinetic war between the world’s largest powers, like the previous world wars. Instead, the conflict is playing out on different levels—proxy wars, economic wars, financial wars, cyber wars, biological wars, deniable sabotage, and information wars. Out of all these domains, I think proxy warfare will determine who wins World War 3. Here’s the bottom line. Russia, China, and their allies want to change the US-led world order that has been in place since the end of World War 2. The conflict is playing out on a level that is below the threshold of direct kinetic warfare because that could invite a nuclear Armageddon. Nonetheless, there is a conflict between the biggest global powers to determine the world order, as in the previous world wars. As I see it, World War 3 is a conflict between two geopolitical blocks. The first block consists of the US and its allies who have hitched their wagons to the unipolar world order. I’m reluctant to call this block “the West” because the people who control it have values antithetical to Western Civilization. A more fitting label would be NATO & Friends. The other block comprises Russia, China, Iran, and other countries favorable to a multipolar world order. Let’s call them the BRICS+, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and other countries. BRICS+ is not a perfect label, but it’s a decent representation of the countries favorable to the multipolar world order. In short, BRICS+ wants to transform the current world order from unipolar to multipolar and give themselves a bigger seat at the table in the process. NATO & Friends want the unipolar status quo to prevail. That’s World War 3, and it’s happening right now. It’s important to remember that world orders are nothing new. World orders are how the big global powers have set the rules of the game for centuries. They are simply the architecture for international political relations between countries. On a smaller scale, it’s similar to when the most powerful criminal groups in a given city—like mafias and street gangs—come together and agree on how to divide their activities and neighborhoods among themselves. Sooner or later, though, these agreements always break down. Then, there is a violent power struggle until the criminal groups reach a new agreement reflecting the new power balance. A similar dynamic is at play with the most powerful countries and world orders. Conflicts among the most powerful countries typically lead to a breakdown and restructuring in the world order. The current US-led world order was the result of World War 2. Prior to that, the Treaty of Versailles created a new world order after World War 1 that lasted from 1919 to 1939. Prior to that, the Congress of Vienna defined the world order. It lasted from Napoleon’s defeat in the early 1800s to the outbreak of World War 1 in 1914. Prior to that, the Peace of Westphalia defined the world order. It lasted from the end of the Thirty Years’ War in 1648 until the outbreak of the Napoleonic Wars around the early 1800s. Here’s the bottom line. Changes to the world order are historical events with enormous implications—investment and otherwise. We’re living through one of these rare times right now. That’s why it’s crucial to sift through the noise and propaganda, put the pieces together correctly, and see the true geopolitical Big Picture. Countless millions throughout history were wiped out financially—or worse—during the previous world wars because they failed to see the correct Big Picture and take appropriate action. But what if you get the Big Picture right as World War 3 unfolds? You can avoid disaster AND set yourself up to potentially make life-changing profits by acting on the investment implications of WW3 before others figure out what is really happening and how it’s likely to end. It’s a rare fortune-building opportunity for those who understand what is happening and make the right moves today. That’s exactly why I just released an urgent new report with all the details, including what you must do to prepare. It’s called The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now. Click here to download the PDF now. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 23:25
VP Kamala Harris Had 92% Staff Turnover During Her First Three Years
1721790300 from ZEROHEDGE
VP Kamala Harris Had 92% Staff Turnover During Her First Three Years By Adam Andrzejewski of OpenTheBooks “People really, really do not want to work for Kamala Harris,” wrote former staffer Dan McLaughlin, January 2022. Topline Under Kamala Harris, the Office of the Vice President has been called a “revolving door,” a “staff exodus” of key aides “heading for the exits.” That’s not hyperbole from the national media. Our auditors at OpenTheBooks quantified an extraordinarily high 91.5-percent staff turnover rate. We used U.S. Senate disclosures to conduct our investigation and those databases can be downloaded below. Elected in November 2020, Harris took the oath of office in January 2021. As of March 31, 2024, only four of the initial 47 staffers from the first year are still employed – consistently and without interruption – by the Vice President. Furthermore, the turnover chaos isn’t getting better. In the trailing 12-month period, 24 staffers left — that’s almost half the employees. Download the Office of Vice President 2021 & 2024 payrolls here (source: U.S. Senate disclosures) Key facts The “top-to-bottom dysfunction” that The Atlantic referenced in October 2023 is shown in the reported payrolls that we captured. “In her first year and a half as vice president, Harris saw the departure of her chief of staff, communications director, domestic-policy adviser, national security adviser, and other aides,” the magazine wrote. If only that was all who left. The semi-annual Report of the Secretary of the Senate, among other things, lists the names, titles and salaries of staff in the Office of the Vice President (OVP). In the most recent publishing through March 31, only four staff from the original 47 listed in the 2021 report remained consistently employed and are among the office’s 50 current staff members. The Kamala Harris Fabulous Four – here are the names, titles, employment date, and salaries of the four employees most loyal to Kamala Harris: Yael S. Belkind has been assistant to the chief of staff since Jan. 20, 2021, earning $85,924; Nasrina Bargzie was associate counsel since Feb. 10, 2021, now is deputy council, taking home $118,066. Oludayo O. Faderin was associate director from July 2021, then became deputy director of west wing operations, making $85,924. Olivia K. Hartman was hired in August 2021 as advance coordinator and became deputy director of scheduling, making $94,750. Silas Woods, III began his career with the vice president as a vetting researcher on Feb. 17, 2021 making $52,500, became associate director of research, and left in August 2022. He went to work as a press assistant for the White House making $67,000. On March 25, 2024, Woods returned as a personal aid to the second gentleman and deputy director of special projects, where his full salary isn’t reported. The other 45 people employed in OVP as of March 31 were hired after Sept. 30, 2021, when staff had already begun leaving the office. In the last year alone, (April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024) 24 people left their jobs with Harris. Key background—Kamala Harris Tried To Hide Everything The Kamala Harris, Office of Vice President, is committed to the opacity of its payrolls and all other office information. In our 2021 reporting at Forbes, “VP Kamala Harris Is The Least Transparent Elected Official In The Nation,” we outlined the OVP’s refusal to provide any information to the public and taxpayers. Her office denied our FOIA request and claimed that they were immune. We had filed a FOIA request with the OVP for its staff payroll in September 2021. A spokesman replied: “Thank you for your inquiry. The Office of the Vice President is not subject to Freedom of Information Act requests. See 5 U.S.C. 552; 44 U.S.C. 2207.” We even tried to coax the information out of the OVP: “I understand the OVP isn't subject to FOIA — is there any information you can provide me at all about the office staff? Whether it's total staff employees (without names or any other employee-specific info) or total payroll for 2020 or current numbers for 2021?” However, the spokesman replied: “Thank you for the inquiry. OVP does not have any information to share at this time.” Therefore, we had to rely on the U.S. Senate’s semi-annual report for Oct. 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021, which gives a list of the 28 staff members who had been hired by the new administration between Jan. 20 and March 31, 2021. Over the next few months, the OVP added another approximately 20 staff members. We calculated that for VP Harris’s 28 staff listed in the Senate report, the 2021 salaries added up to $2,334, 223. But President Joseph Biden’s congressional budget submission shows the OVP got $5 million for 23 full time staff in 2021 and requested over $6 million for 27 full time staff in 2022. The OVP wouldn’t answer for the discrepancy in budget and staffing, citing the earlier provision that states only federal agencies are subject to FOIA, and the OVP, it argues, isn’t a federal agency. Vice President Kamala Harris, the second-in-command, and possible next president of the United States, is the only elected official in the country not required to share her office’s spending with the public. We captured 25 million public employee salary and pension records on 55,000 FOIA requests last year. You can search all federal, state, and local government payrolls on our website for free or with our free AI search tool, Benjamin, named after Benjamin Franklin. Biden’s High Turnover Harris isn’t alone in her inability to retain staff. Since 2021, only 127 of Biden’s initial 560 White House employees remain, a 77-percent turnover rate that would be considered high if not for Harris’ 92-percent rate. Between 2023 and 2024, 225 people left, a 43-percent turnover rate that is only slightly lower than the 46-percent between 2022 and 2023. (For context, Donald Trump’s payroll turnover from his first year until his fourth year was 72-percent.) But Biden’s high turnover isn’t the only staffing failure that should give taxpayers pause. He has the largest White House headcount since the Richard Nixon administration, who was the first president to exceed 500 staffers. Now Biden employs 565 staffers, costing taxpayers $61 million in salaries. That’s up from the 524 staffers in 2023, costing $52 million. Biden has 152 more employees than Trump (413) (FY2020) and 97 more than Obama (468) (FY2012), when each were in the fourth year of their first terms. This shouldn’t be surprising, as Biden has made clear his intentions to grow the size of the federal government. In the first nine days of his presidency, Biden issued many executive orders expanding the size, scope, and power of the federal bureaucracy. During his first three years, more than 40,000 bureaucrats were added across the 123 executive agencies, outside of the Department of Defense, U.S. Post Office, and intelligence services. Crucial quote Symone Sanders, Harris' chief spokesperson and senior adviser, in early December 2021 was quoted in The Washington Post responding to critics of the staff departures, saying, “We are not making rainbows and bunnies all day. What I hear is that people have hard jobs and I’m like ‘Welcome to the club.’” She left the OVP later that year. Critic “Working for Harris is a nightmare, not just because she rides her staff hard, but also because she does so without the competence, decisiveness, and effectiveness that inspires people in politics to suffer under demanding bosses,” Dan McLaughlin wrote in a January 2022 National Review article titled, “People Really, Really Do Not Want to Work for Kamala Harris.” Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 23:05
Conrad Black: All US Presidential Assassinations Could Have Easily Been Avoided
1721789100 from ZEROHEDGE
Conrad Black: All US Presidential Assassinations Could Have Easily Been Avoided Authored by Conrad Black via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump reminds us of how vulnerable American political leaders are to attacks with guns. In retrospect, all four of the assassinations of American presidents could easily have been avoided. Charles Jules Guiteau, a disillusioned office seeker, shoots U.S. President James Garfield (1831–1881) in the back at the Baltimore and Potomac Railroad Depot, Washington, D.C., on July 2, 1881. Garfield finally died of his injuries on Sept. 19, 1881. (William T. Mathews/MPI/Getty Images) President Abraham Lincoln was sitting in his box with his wife at Ford’s Theatre in Washington with no security at all, at the end of a terrible Civil War in which 750,000 Americans died in a population of 31 million, and the great animosity of that conflict had scarcely begun to subside. This was a particularly dreadful tragedy for the whole country, not only because Lincoln is generally recognized as the greatest president in American history and possibly the greatest statesman of modern times, but because he was the only person who could accomplish the adoption of a policy of national reconciliation that would have substantially avoided segregation and assured African-Americans the right to vote which, in the southern states, they did not acquire until 100 years later. If President Lincoln had had remotely adequate security, John Wilkes Booth, one of America’s most prominent stage actors, could not have killed him. President James A. Garfield was shot at the Washington railway station by disappointed office seeker Charles Guiteau just four months into his presidency and died two months later, largely because of incompetent medical treatment. Again, if he'd had one or two competent security personnel with him, or even adequate medical attention in the subsequent two months, the assassination attempt would have been unsuccessful. Garfield was a capable and promising man, a young and much-promoted combat Civil War general and the only person ever to make the jump directly from the House of Representatives to the presidency (though he was also a senator-elect), but his loss was not as grievous as that of Lincoln. President William McKinley was assassinated in Buffalo, New York, by an anarchist, Leon Czolgosz, in 1901, who had a handgun wrapped in a handkerchief when he shook hands with the president in a receiving line. Again, adequate security by contemporary standards would have prevented this, and again, competent medical attention would have prevented a fatality. The president was shot twice and the attending surgeon could not find the second bullet. Days passed with optimistic reports of the president’s recovery, but any informed person would have known that if the second bullet was not retrieved, acute septicemia was likely, and this was the cause of McKinley’s death. It was a time of frequent anarchistic assassinations abroad, and Czolgosz had been inspired to commit this act by listening to a speech of the anarchist firebrand Emma Goldman (who often lived in Toronto, and died there). The United States did not have such discontented classes and ethnicities as there were in Europe, but there was no excuse for McKinley’s inadequate security detail and inept medical attention. This was again a terrible personal tragedy to befall a capable and well-respected president and a brave man who had risen from private to major in the Civil War entirely because of his courage and leadership qualities. Fortunately, he was succeeded by one of the nation’s most capable and popular presidents, Theodore Roosevelt. All readers will remember or have seen film of the horrifying assassination of John F. Kennedy in Dallas on Nov. 22, 1963. The president of the United States has not travelled in an open car since then, and President Kennedy’s predecessors, Harry S. Truman and General Dwight D. Eisenhower, were just as visible in their official vehicles which had a bulletproof plexiglass roof. There has never been any explanation for why such a vehicle was not used in Dallas on that terrible day, though Kennedy’s penchant for convertibles was a factor. In the last 100 years, five other U.S. presidents apart from Kennedy have been the subject of attempted assassinations. Then President-elect Franklin D. Roosevelt, in 1933 in Miami, was the target of anarchist Giuseppe Zangara, who missed Roosevelt but shot five others, including the mayor of Chicago, Anton Cermak, who died. Security was not as extensive as it has subsequently become, but it was only good luck that FDR was completely unscathed. He returned to Vincent Astor’s famous yacht, the Nourmahal, on which he had been cruising, had two stiff glasses of whisky (although prohibition, which he had always personally ignored anyway, had not yet been abolished), and never mentioned the incident again. Of course, he went on to be America’s longest-serving president, and one of its greatest. The attempted assassination of President Truman in 1950 was fortunately incompetently conducted and the assailants did not get close to the president. But attempts on the lives of President Gerald Ford in 1975, Ronald Reagan in 1981, and Donald Trump this month, were only unsuccessful for miraculous reasons. President Ford’s first assailant, Squeaky Fromme, was intercepted as she fired, and the next, Sara Jane Moore, was jostled by a retired Marine. President Reagan’s security unit moved with commendable haste and courage and his bullet wound was only approximately an inch from being fatal. There was obviously a severe breakdown in appropriate security measures and coordination that almost cost the life of former President Trump in Pennsylvania on July 13. As guns were involved in all of these assassination attempts and the Constitution, in fidelity to the revolutionary origins of the United States, guarantees the right of every law-abiding adult citizen to have a firearm, no screening process or restriction of firearms sales is going to reduce significantly the danger to presidents. All that can be done is to intensify security, and particularly to put bulletproof but completely transparent acrylic screens around presidents during public speeches. Crowds can now be scanned by metal detectors, and presidents travel in automobiles that are both bulletproof and bombproof. We have no idea how many attempts on the lives of presidents have been conceived but undone before they could be carried out, but the fact that six of the last 15 presidents have been threatened by assassins, and one of them murdered, shows that the danger is constant. As long as there are discontented people who are severely deranged, the idea of killing leaders will have a simplistic appeal to them, as well as to a tiny echelon of terribly maladjusted people who imagine this to be a satisfactory route to historical fame. Assassins have not become more resourceful or ingenious since the time of Lincoln; it is for those entrusted with the security of the U.S. president to reduce the possibility of the success of assassins to the minimum. The same rules can apply to other elected figures who were victims of inadequate security, such as Robert Kennedy, assassinated in the kitchen of a Los Angeles hotel in 1968, and prominent non-presidential figures, such as Martin Luther King, also murdered in 1968, Malcolm X (1965), and Louisiana Governor Huey P. Long (1935). Nor should we imagine that this problem is exclusively American. Margaret Thatcher was nearly assassinated by the Irish Republican Army on a couple of occasions, and Charles de Gaulle was almost killed by opponents of his Algeria policy several times. German interior minister Wolfgang Schauble was confined to a wheelchair for the rest of his life by an unsuccessful assassination attempt. The problem may be slightly exacerbated in the United States because of the constitutionally guaranteed right to bear arms, but it is a universal problem, especially in democratic countries where leaders have to be relatively publicly visible. There is no antidote except better security and more and better-trained security personnel. Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 22:45
Shocker! Study Reveals That Giving Americans $1,000 Per Month Has Negative Consequences
1721787900 from ZEROHEDGE
Shocker! Study Reveals That Giving Americans $1,000 Per Month Has Negative Consequences A new study reveals what common sense could have predicted - giving Americans $1,000 per month disincentivizes them from working, causing them to work less - and earn less, over time. Illus: The MIT Press Reader According to the 3,000-participant, three-year study from the National Bureau of Economic Research, giving people $1,000 per month increased leisure time, as recipients spent less time on sleeping, child care, community engagement, caring for others, and self-improvement. The study also found that recipients' income, not including the free money, reduced their incomes significantly, as "for every one dollar received, total household income excluding the transfers fell by at least 21 cents, and total individual income fell by at least 12 cents." "The takeaway from the best study done so far about UBI in the United States is that handing out money isn't the solution to all our problems," Daniel Di Martino, a economics researcher and graduate fellow at the Manhattan Institute, told The Center Square. "In fact, sometimes it makes things worse." The study’s authors noted mean-tested welfare encourages recipients to cut hours “to preserve benefits,” leading to advocacy for “unconditional cash transfer programs” without these distortions that would also allow individuals either to look for and secure higher-quality work or spend extra time on “productive non-work activities.” Participants’ individual incomes declined $1,500 per year relative to the control group, excluding transfers, participants’ labor force participation was two percentage points lower, participants and their partners worked approximately 1.4 hours less per week. Participants spent their extra time on leisure, did not improve their quality of employment, and did not improve human capital investments such as training. The study notes how during the 2020 Democratic primaries, candidate Andrew Yang proposed a $1,000 per month "Freedom Dividend," which he claimed "encourages people to find work" and "increases entrepreneurship." The study found that while "participants exhibited more entrepreneurial orientation and intentions," that "this did not translate into significantly more entrepreneurial activity," as "very few people have the inclination to become entrepreneurs in general." According to Di Martino, the study did not address inflation concerns, and remained open to unconditional cash payments in lieu of certain welfare programs. "It's important to remark that this study doesn't look at the macroeconomic impact of UBI which would raise inflation and affect interest rates if implemented nationwide," he said. "Now the question that's more interesting is if the almost null effects of UBI are better (or less bad) than those of our existing welfare programs and whether it might be a good idea to replace them." Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 22:25
After High Court Ruling, San Francisco Prepares To Clear Homeless Camps
1721786700 from ZEROHEDGE
After High Court Ruling, San Francisco Prepares To Clear Homeless Camps Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), After last month’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling that gave cities a green light to enforce laws and clear homeless camps, San Francisco is now crafting policies to allow officials to begin sweeping encampments, according to Mayor London Breed’s July 19 newsletter. “Our goal is to bring people indoors—camping or living on our streets isn’t safe for our community, residents, and people in need of support,” she said. “San Francisco is a city that prioritizes compassion, and we will continue to lead with services, but we cannot allow for people to refuse services and shelter when offered and available.” San Francisco Mayor London Breed speaks during a news conference outside of Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital in San Francisco, Calif., on March 17, 2021. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) Officials are contemplating options with the city attorney’s office and more information will be shared soon, according to Ms. Breed. The high court’s decision—related to a lower court’s ruling on a case known as Grants Pass that blocked cities from clearing encampments—now allows municipalities to enforce laws against sleeping, loitering, and lodging on public property when people reject attempts to help them. “This decision by the Supreme Court will help cities like San Francisco manage our public spaces more effectively and efficiently,” Ms. Breed said in a June 28 press release. “This decision recognizes that cities must have more flexibility to address challenges on our streets.” She said discussions underway aim to reduce homelessness while finding people mental health treatment and services to improve the quality of life for all San Franciscans. “[Illegal camping] is not healthy, safe, or compassionate for people on the street, and it’s not acceptable for our neighborhoods,” Ms. Breed said. One San Francisco local said he supports increased enforcement because of what he described as “filthy” conditions in some areas. “The city has become known for feces on the sidewalks and dirty streets,” John Walker told The Epoch Times July 22. “Something needs to be done.” After the high court’s ruling was announced in June, the state’s Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals quickly moved to discontinue the injunction blocking homeless camp sweeps. San Francisco City Attorney David Chiu said the legal changes will allow the city to better manage its streets and improve public safety. “This will give our city more flexibility to provide services to unhoused people while keeping our streets healthy and safe,” Mr. Chiu said in a July 8 press release. “It will help us address our most challenging encampments, where services are often refused and re-encampment is common.” A homeless individual in the Tenderloin District of San Francisco on May 16, 2024. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times) Some homeless advocates argued the new policies could hurt people living on the street. “Penalizing individuals, including many with mental health and other disabilities, for merely trying to live is not only cruel but also counterproductive,” Marlene Sallo, executive director of the National Disability Rights Network, said in a June 28 press release. “Cities are now further emboldened to ignore effective housing-based solutions, opting instead to punish those with no alternative but to sleep on the streets.” She called on the federal government to provide resources for homeless individuals. “Too often a lack of housing in the community leaves people with disabilities stuck in institutions or worse, homeless,” Ms. Sallo said. “Affordable and accessible housing is a critical and necessary component for people with disabilities to live independent and fulfilling lives in the community.” Other nonprofits agreed and criticized the ruling and discussions about enforcing illegal camping laws. “Arresting or fining people for trying to survive is expensive, counterproductive, and cruel,” Jesse Rabinowitz, campaign and communications director at the National Homelessness Law Center, said in the disability network’s press release. She added that the “inhumane” ruling “will make homelessness worse.” “Cities are now even more empowered to neglect proven housing-based solutions and to arrest or fine those with no choice but to sleep outdoors,” Ms. Rabinowitz said. “While we are disappointed, we are not surprised that this Supreme Court ruled against the interests of our poorest neighbors.” In the 6–3 ruling, Supreme Court justices were split on how best to proceed. “Homelessness is complex. Its causes are many,” Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch, author of the majority opinion, wrote in the ruling. “People will disagree over which policy responses are best ... nor can a handful of federal judges begin to ‘match’ the collective wisdom the American people possess in deciding ‘how best to handle’ a pressing social question like homelessness.” In a dissenting opinion, Justice Sonia Sotomayor said that sleeping outside is the only option for some people. “Sleep is a biological necessity, not a crime,” she wrote. Gov. Gavin Newsom said the ruling gives state and local officials the authority to enforce policies that will benefit Californians. “This decision removes the legal ambiguities that have tied the hands of local officials for years and limited their ability to deliver on common-sense measures to protect the safety and well-being of our communities,” he said in a June 28 press release. He also said the state will continue to treat all individuals with compassion. “California remains committed to respecting the dignity and fundamental human needs of all people and the state will continue to work with compassion to provide individuals experiencing homelessness with the resources they need to better their lives,” Mr. Newsom said. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 22:05
Robby Starbuck's Anti-Woke Crusade Expands: "Time To Expose Harley Davidson"
1721785500 from ZEROHEDGE
Robby Starbuck's Anti-Woke Crusade Expands: "Time To Expose Harley Davidson" Commentator and filmmaker Robby Starbuck's strategy to expose all the insane woke activism within mega-corporations with large conservative customer bases has entered the third chapter. After Tractor Supply nuked its diversity, equity, and inclusion program and John Deere scaled back on DEI policies, Starbuck announced on X on Tuesday, "It's time to expose Harley Davidson." Starbuck's anti-woke crusade drives a wedge between the corporation and the customer base, forcing high-level executives to immediately respond, as seen by Tractory Supply and John Deere, or risk 'Bud Lighting' itself (i.e., boycotts). It's a genius move by Starbuck and his team as the anti-woke crusade against companies infected with the woke mind virus gains momentum. Starbuck claims that under Harley Davidson CEO Jochen Zeitz, the iconic motorcycle brand has been infected with woke activism, supports the Equality Act (which would allow men into girl's bathrooms, sports, and locker rooms), funded all-ages pride events, and required 1,800 employees to undergo virtual LGBTQ+ ally training. Starbuck notes that Harley Davidson is a founding member of Wisconsin's LGBTQ+ Chamber of Commerce, sponsored an LGBTQ+ Entrepreneur Bootcamp, and made February and March "Months of Inclusion." He adds that the company partnered with the United Way for multiple woke training programs, supported the Pennsylvania Youth Congress in creating gender-neutral licenses, and hosted numerous LGBTQ+ events at their corporate office. Starbuck argues that Harley Davidson has alienated its core freedom-loving blue-collar customers by advocating Marxist ideologies pushed by leftists. "I don't think the values at corporate reflect the values of nearly any Harley Davidson bikers," he said. He added, "My goal with this reporting is never destruction. My goal is to inform consumers about the values major companies are adopting so they can make choices about what they're willing to support. That's not cancel culture, it's capitalism." It’s time to expose Harley Davidson.@harleydavidson has been one of the most beloved brands in America but recently on CEO Jochen Zeitz’s watch, they’ve gone totally woke. Here’s some of what we found: • Openly supports “the equality act" which would allow men into girl’s… pic.twitter.com/15kPUy8WVY — Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) July 23, 2024 X users respond to Starbuck's new report: Harley Davidson admits they select their Board members based partly on ethnicity and gender. How is this legal? pic.twitter.com/1L03F55aQH — Expose Them (@ExposeDarkDeeds) July 23, 2024 Talk about another brand that doesn’t understand its target market…. Wow. — Webmiester (@YourWebmiester) July 23, 2024 Why are all the companies that were most admired for their products going woke all of the sudden. From Tractor supply to John Deere. Now it’s @harleydavidson . What is happening — Zaki Solja (@zakisolja) July 23, 2024 I guess we’re gonna have to sell our Harley’s.. what the heck is wrong with these companies pic.twitter.com/I4vZM0lAiK — Tammie McDonald 🇺🇸 (@TammieMcDonal17) July 23, 2024 Wait, Harley put a leftist in charge of their American Badash Company? — Ken Morin (@KenMorin111) July 23, 2024 Harley Davidson used to represent freedom. Now, they're pushing woke agendas. How disappointing. — Clown World ™ 🤡 (@ClownWorld_) July 23, 2024 Starbuck's mission has been to get politics out of business, especially wokeism that's cut from Marxist cloth. Consumers would prefer corporate behavior without woke activism and for management to continue to innovate products—not become leftist activists and let the brand decay. Bud Light learned the hard way. The clock has begun for Harley Davidson to respond to Starbuck's report. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 21:45
Harris And Biden Met In Person Only Six Times This Summer
1721784300 from ZEROHEDGE
Harris And Biden Met In Person Only Six Times This Summer Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics, On the White House South Lawn, Vice President Kamala Harris praised the man she is likely to replace atop the Democratic ticket, telling an assembly of student athletes that “I am firsthand witness that every day our president, Joe Biden, fights for the American people.” But Harris hasn’t seen Biden in a week. And they haven’t seen much of each other this summer. Their working relationship, and subsequent friendship, has always been complicated by hectic schedules and international travel – including Biden’s trip to France just last month – making it difficult for the president and vice president to sit down in one place together for very long. The pair have met face-to-face just six times since the beginning of June, according to a RealClearPolitics analysis of the president’s public schedule. The latest meeting took place one week ago for a briefing from the Department of Homeland Security in the aftermath of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. A political lifetime has passed since then. Biden announced abruptly Sunday, via a post on X.com, that he would not run for reelection and promptly endorsed Harris for the job. It will now likely be up to her to keep the White House for Democrats and continue the work of Biden, who, in just four years, she said Monday, “has already surpassed the legacy of most presidents who have served two terms in office.” More than a month earlier, Biden and Harris were both on the South Lawn for a Juneteenth celebration. On June 10, the vice president could be seen dancing to the music along with second gentleman Doug Emhoff. But the president, he froze. The cameras caught Biden on tape looking lost. “The president stood there listening to the music and he didn’t dance,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre later told reporters. “Excuse me, I did not know not dancing was a health issue.” Biden and Harris met for lunch the next day, the president’s public schedule shows. Shortly after his inauguration, the president promised the vice president lunch “once a week,” an optimistic schedule that Biden often failed to keep, an earlier analysis by RCP found. Then the debate happened. The White House and Biden campaign insisted for years that Biden had not lost a step, that he was, as Jean-Pierre told RCP, “as sharp as ever.” But for 90 minutes in Atlanta, the worst fears of Democrats were inescapable. The age and diminished mental acuity of the 81-year-old elder statesman were on full display as he meandered and mumbled through answers. Democrats started to abandon ship. Fears once whispered about his mental fitness were suddenly being shared on cable news. Harris, for her part, never abandoned Biden. She conceded, as he had to donors during a San Francisco fundraiser in July, that the debate was “not his finest hour.” But she insisted, “the outcome of this election cannot be determined by one day in June.” Harris next saw Biden on July 3, again for a lunch at the White House. The next day, the vice president joined the president for a Fourth of July celebration, taking in the fireworks from the South Lawn. On July 8, Harris joined Biden for his presidential daily brief. Harris, until recently, served as the most high-profile surrogate for the Biden campaign, crisscrossing the country on her own to fundraise and rally supporters. She was in Kalamazoo, Michigan, last Wednesday, then Provincetown, Massachusetts, on Saturday, stumping faithfully for a ticket that would soon disintegrate. Biden and Harris last shared a stage in Philadelphia on May 29. It was hosted by the campaign, and the vice president spoke first, introducing Biden as a president who “not only knows how to fight, he knows how to win.” Biden stepped to the microphone moments later after applause and chants of “Four more years!” “Thank you, Kamala, for your partnership,” he said. “And it is a partnership. And how about another round of applause for our great vice president,” he continued. “Isn’t she something else?” Fifty-four days later, he would be gone. Biden announced last week that he had again tested positive for COVID-19. The president retreated to his beach house in Rehoboth, Delaware, where he announced that he would not seek reelection. He remains in quarantine, though his physician, Kevin O’Connor, said in a memo released Monday that his symptoms “have resolved almost completely,” and he “continues to perform all of his presidential duties.” Those duties do not include addressing the nation as of now. Remarks from the outgoing president are expected but not yet scheduled. Neither the White House nor the vice president’s office returned RCP’s request for comment. On Monday, after Biden gave Harris his blessing, she traveled to Wilmington, Delaware, where their campaign headquarters are located. The president called in remotely before she arrived. “I know yesterday’s news was surprising and hard for you to hear, but it was the right thing to do,” Biden told assembled staff over the phone. “The name has changed at the top of the ticket, but the mission hasn’t changed at all,” he continued. The outgoing president then asked his campaign to work as hard as they could for Harris in the coming weeks and months. He won’t be going anywhere soon, though. “I won’t be on the ticket, but I’m still going to be fully, fully engaged,” Biden concluded. “I’ve got six months left of my presidency; I’m determined to get as much done as I possibly can. Both foreign policy and domestic policy.” Harris, during that time, is again expected to be away from the White House and the president. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 21:25
Taiwan Live-Fire Exercises Aimed At China Muted By Typhoon
1721783100 from ZEROHEDGE
Taiwan Live-Fire Exercises Aimed At China Muted By Typhoon Taiwan's military on Monday kicked off the live-fire component of its largest annual exercise, known as the Han Kuang drills. They are slated to run through July 26, and crucially this comes after China's recent 'encircling' exercises wherein dozens of PLA vessels and aircraft breached the Taiwan Strait median line. But this year's Han Kuang drills look to be muted, given a massive storm is hampering military movements. "An approaching typhoon prompted the cancellation of air force drills off Taiwan’s east coast on Tuesday, although naval and land exercises were set to continue in other parts of the self-governing island democracy, which China threatens to invade," Associated Press reports. Focus Taiwan: "Tropical Storm Gaemi has developed into a typhoon and will potentially make landfall in Taiwan's northeastern county of Yilan on late Wednesday or early Thursday." The Air Force 5th Tactical Mixed Wing confirmed cancelation of its portion of the exercises, citing the imminent threat of the typhoon. "According to the Central Weather Bureau, Typhoon Gaemi was heading westward toward the island with sustained winds of 144 kilometers (about 90 miles) per hour and gusts of up to 180 kph (110 mph)," AP continues. The storm has also resulted in the cancelation of a number of domestic flights as well as ferries on Tuesday. Thus the drills are expected to be very limited at this point. They are reportedly focusing this year on defending against a Chinese attack on critical infrastructure and supply lines, especially in and around the capital. The typhoon bearing down on the island is named Gaemi... Taiwan cancelled some drills in its annual war games as Typhoon Gaemi heads towards the islandhttps://t.co/a1JUF8HXzk pic.twitter.com/49Xc8VsQ4V — AFP News Agency (@AFP) July 23, 2024 Key to this will also be defending key ports against a potential future Chinese blockade, which analysts have long predicted would be a first step in any military aggression by Beijing. In May, China initiated its largest encircling and blockade drills aimed at Taiwan to date. In addition to many aircraft groupings, about a dozen PLA naval ships had surrounded the self-ruled island during that two day exercise, and in response Taiwan's military deployed warships to monitor the situation and mirror the Chinese vessels. Air raid sirens go off across Taipei as part of yearly drills aimed at readying people to take shelter if #Taiwan comes under attack. Traffic is halted, streets emptied. For 30 minutes the city mostly comes to a stop. pic.twitter.com/Q8uv4zXtbP — Staś Butler | 貝德旭 (@stasbutler) July 23, 2024 Both sides are watching closely the political situation in the US, especially given a possible Trump second term could return the US to a focus on China, instead of the current Biden administration's prioritizing of the Ukraine and Gaza flashpoints. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 21:05
Federal Judge Rejects Challenge To Chicago Ban On Gun Laser-Sights
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Federal Judge Rejects Challenge To Chicago Ban On Gun Laser-Sights Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times, Laser sights for guns are not protected by the U.S. Constitution’s Second Amendment, a federal judge ruled on July 22, upholding the city of Chicago’s ban on the sights. Firearms are effective weapons without laser sights attached “and thus a laser sight ‘is not a weapon protected by the Second Amendment’” but is instead an accessory unnecessary to operate firearms, U.S. District Judge Charles Kocoras said, quoting a ruling in a separate case. The organization Second Amendment Arms launched a legal challenge in 2010 against Chicago’s ban, which was imposed in 1999. The group said the laser sight ban violated the Second Amendment rights of its members and other law-abiding citizens. Judge Kocoras said he analyzed the ban in light of the U.S. Supreme Court decision in 2022 that found governments that impose gun regulations must show the regulations are consistent with America’s historical tradition of gun restrictions. Before looking at the history of restrictions, though, the decision guided courts to first decide whether the Second Amendment covers conduct restricted by a challenged regulation. The conduct must involve items “properly characterized as arms.” Plaintiffs had argued that the laser sights are covered by the Second Amendment. The sights “are protected by the Second Amendment, as a modern version of something that has been a part of safe firearm usage for hundreds of years, i.e., firearm sights,” they said in a brief. Chicago officials had told the court that “laser sights are not ‘arms’ within the meaning of the plain text of the Second Amendment, but are, rather, mere firearm accessories.” Judge Kocoras said the plaintiffs did not meet the burden of showing laser sights are protected by the amendment. That included a failure to differentiate them from silencers, which were previously ruled to fall outside the amendment’s protection. “Laser sights are neither firearms themselves nor necessary to the operation of a firearm, and are merely unprotected firearm accessories,” the judge said. The ruling also dismissed attempts from Second Amendment Arms and others to obtain damages from an ordinance that banned many sales of firearms in Chicago until a judge declared it in violation of the Constitution in 2014. The ruling came on the same day that Chicago announced it was dismissing a lawsuit it had brought against gun manufacturer Glock in March. The suit had said the company was improperly selling firearms that could easily be converted into machine guns. The notice of voluntary dismissal, filed with the federal court in northern Illinois, did not explain why the city was dropping the case. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 20:45
US Rejects China's Gaza Mediation Efforts For Legitimizing Hamas
1721780700 from ZEROHEDGE
US Rejects China's Gaza Mediation Efforts For Legitimizing Hamas This week a fresh United Nations assessment estimated that the Israeli military (IDF) has placed more than 80% of the Gaza Strip under evacuation orders or designated "no-go zone" - Al Jazeera reports, underscoring this means Palestinians have nowhere to go. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in the statement said, "As of July 22, nearly 83 percent of the Gaza Strip has been placed under evacuation orders or designated as 'no-go zones' by the Israeli military." The latest order has urged some 400,000 Palestinians out of eastern and central Khan Yunis, where the latest IDF offensive is happening. The new order encompasses nearly nine square kilometers of land. "The area of the ‘humanitarian zone’ as designated by the Israeli military has thus decreased by 14.8 percent, from 58.9 to 50.2 square kilometers," the OCHA report continued. Via AFP The crisis of "where to go" for internally displaced refugees has been exacerbated already as much of the Strip lacks water, food, and electricity. Meanwhile President Biden has newly pledged to end the fighting in Gaza by the time he leaves office at the end of this year. According to Axios, "President Biden pledged to spend his remaining six months in office trying to end the Israel-Hamas war and bringing home the hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza." He has announced this week, "We are on the verge of getting that." But this has been claimed many times before, going back months. Just days ago Secretary Blinken declared that efforts to reach a truce deal are "inside the ten yard line." "I believe we’re inside the 10-yard line and driving toward the goal line in getting an agreement that would produce a cease-fire, get the hostages home and put us on a better track to trying to build lasting peace and stability," the US top diplomat said Friday at he Aspen Security Forum. Still, Hamas continues to fundamentally disagree with both Israel and the US on some key points of a potential ceasefire. It should also be noted that Israel and the US also don't see eye to eye with China's diplomatic maneuverings of late regarding the conflict either: Spokesman Matthew Miller has responded to a Beijing-brokered “national unity” agreement signed between Hamas, Fatah and other Palestinian groups today. The agreement lays the groundwork for an “interim national reconciliation government” to rule post-war Gaza and has been seen as a bulwark against any governance plans that sideline Palestinians. Miller told reporters the United States opposes any post-war plan that includes Hamas. “As we have made clear for months, Hamas is a terrorist organization. … When it comes to governance of Gaza at the end of the conflict, there can’t be a role for a terrorist organization,” Miller said. He added the US would “like to see the Palestinian Authority governing a unified Gaza and the West Bank, but no, we cannot support a role for Hamas." AP: China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi, with Mahmoud al-Aloul, left, vice chairman of Fatah, and Mussa Abu Marzuk, a senior member of Hamas in Beijing on Tuesday. The China-brokered deal is seen as legitimizing Hamas in preparation of the group having some part in a future Palestinian-administered Gaza. Thus Washington has firmly rejected it. Beijing likely sees its own approach as more realistic, based on a perspective that Hamas cannot ever ultimately be rooted out by military force. Interestingly, some Israeli current and former officials have appeared to admit the same. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 20:25
Sugar: A Potential Culprit In Pancreatic Cancer, The 'King Of Cancer'
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Sugar: A Potential Culprit In Pancreatic Cancer, The 'King Of Cancer' Authored by Shan Lam and JoJo Novaes via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Pancreatic cancer, sometimes dubbed the “king of cancer“ due to its malignancy, poses challenges in both early detection and late-stage treatment. Understanding its causes and warning signs enables people to take preventive measures. Rong Shu, director of Dr. Rong TCM Clinic in the United Kingdom and a seasoned traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) practitioner with over 30 years of experience, outlined the causes, early symptoms, and effective prevention strategies for pancreatic cancer on the Epoch Times’ ”Health 1+1” program. (qoppi/shutterstock) The Dual Role of the Pancreas In Western medicine, the pancreas is recognized as both a digestive and an endocrine organ. As a digestive organ, it secretes various enzymes to break down proteins, fats, and carbohydrates in food. As an endocrine organ, it produces insulin and glucagon to regulate blood sugar levels, maintaining them at appropriate levels crucial for the functioning of key organs. Ms. Rong highlighted that from the perspective of TCM, the pancreas is regarded as part of the spleen system which include the pancreas, liver, gallbladder, spleen, stomach, and intestines. This system is responsible for the digestion, absorption, transformation, and transportation of nutrients from food, providing energy to various tissues and systems in the body. Sugar and Pancreatic Cancer In the ancient Chinese medical text “The Yellow Emperor’s Classic of Internal Medicine“ or the ”Huangdi Neijing,” it is documented that the spleen corresponds to sweetness. Ms. Rong explained that while a small amount of sweetness can nourish the spleen, excessive sweetness can be detrimental. Sugar is present in refined sweet foods. Eating too many highly refined sweet foods for too long can lead to chronic damage to the spleen, potentially resulting in cancerous changes. Numerous studies have confirmed the close relationship between sugar and pancreatic function, identifying sugar as a driving factor in the onset of pancreatic cancer. A 2019 study published in Cell Metabolism found that elevated blood sugar levels triggered metabolic imbalance in mice, leading to pancreatic cancer. Another study published in Cell Reports in 2020 following nearly 500,000 Europeans over 20 years indicated that a high-sugar diet increased the risk of pancreatic cancer in some individuals and promoted tumor growth and spread. Challenges in Detection and Treatment Ms. Rong explained that the difficulty in detecting pancreatic cancer in its early stages is due to the pancreas’ location. Often referred to as a “hidden organ,” the pancreas is concealed behind several other organs. This positioning makes it nearly impossible for doctors to feel it during a physical examination, and even with an ultrasound, capturing clear images of the pancreas is challenging. Furthermore, when tumors form and grow in the pancreas, they typically do not cause noticeable symptoms. Even if symptoms do appear, they are rarely recognized as related to pancreatic issues, making early detection unlikely. It is often only when the tumor cells have metastasized to other organs that the symptoms become apparent. According to Limor Appelbaum, a Harvard Medical School instructor and radiation oncologist, “approximately 80–85 percent of pancreatic cancer patients are diagnosed at advanced stages, where cure is no longer an option.” In late 2023, researchers from Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) jointly developed a new pancreatic cancer detection model called PRISM, which can detect 35 percent of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas, the most common type of pancreatic cancer, compared to 10% with conventional screening. Limited Treatment Options Additionally, pancreatic cancer cells are aggressive and exhibit resistance to multiple levels of treatment, making a complete cure very challenging. According to the American Cancer Society, the five-year relative survival rate for pancreatic cancer is only 13 percent. Treatment options for pancreatic cancer remain very limited. The primary surgical treatment is pancreaticoduodenectomy, but less than 20 percent of pancreatic cancer patients are eligible for this procedure. In addition to surgery, treatment options for pancreatic cancer include chemotherapy, radiation therapy, targeted drug therapy, and immunotherapy. However, these methods are generally ineffective in curing pancreatic cancer and can cause significant harm to the body. TCM as an Adjunctive Treatment Ms. Rong recounted a recent case of treating a pancreatic cancer patient. A late-stage patient underwent five months of chemotherapy with no improvement. When they came to the clinic for a checkup, they had lost all their hair, their face was distorted with pain, and their stomach was bloated like a balloon. After acupuncture treatment, the patient’s symptoms significantly improved, as did their emotional state. Ms. Rong stated that TCM intervention can alleviate symptoms in pancreatic cancer patients, significantly reduce pain, and enhance the quality of life for late-stage cancer patients. It also demonstrates some capability to inhibit the spread of cancer cells or even facilitate healing. Patients may consider TCM as an alternative therapy or opt for a combination of Western medicine and TCM for treatment. Early Symptoms Ms. Rong noted that some patients with pancreatic cancer exhibit no symptoms at all, while others experience only a few symptoms that are often overlooked, such as: Upper abdominal bloating and discomfort Itchy skin Unexplained sudden increase in blood sugar levels or sudden ineffectiveness of diabetes medication Lower back pain, especially at the level of the navel, unrelated to kidney disease or injury Yellowing of the eyes and skin (jaundice) Risk Factors While the exact cause of any cancer is unknown, the following are risk factors that may influence pancreatic cancer development: High stress, depression, and anxiety: One study showed that depression may be a precursor to pancreatic cancer, with half of pancreatic cancer patients exhibiting psychiatric symptoms 43 months before physical symptoms appear. Unhealthy lifestyle: Uncontrolled diet and irregular sleep patterns. Unbalanced diet: Eating an unvaried and unhealthy diet, such as eating too much meat and not enough fruits and vegetables. Bad habits: Smoking, drinking alcohol, consuming excessive amounts of coffee, and frequently eating charred foods. Underlying health factors: Diabetes is a known risk factor for pancreatic cancer. Pancreatitis: Chronic inflammation of the pancreas can lead to cancer, and benign tumors may become malignant. Genetics: Pancreatic cancer has a certain degree of familial inheritance. Preventive Measures Ms. Rong emphasized that to prevent pancreatic cancer, it is essential to make lifestyle adjustments and cultivate healthy habits in daily life. Consider implementing the following: Reduce intake of sugary foods: Instead, opt for high-protein and whole-grain foods, nuts, and legumes. For instance, incorporate boiled or lightly fried fish, chicken, eggs, oatmeal, corn, millet, and rye into your diet. Eat a variety of vegetables and fruits: Vegetables and fruits are rich in antioxidants, which combat oxidative stress and chronic inflammation, reducing the risk of cancer. Increase intake of healthy fats: Research has shown that olive oil consumption can reduce the risk of cancer. Engage in regular exercise: Physical activity can strengthen the immune system and lower cancer risk. Maintain a positive mindset and manage stress: Depression may have some association with pancreatic cancer. It is essential to actively manage stress and incorporate relaxation techni Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 20:05
Dramatic Video Shows Houthi Kamikaze Boat Drone Blown Up By Container Ship Crew
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Dramatic Video Shows Houthi Kamikaze Boat Drone Blown Up By Container Ship Crew Iran-backed Houthis have intensified their unmanned suicide surface drone attacks in the critical maritime chokepoint of the southern Red Sea. Dramatic footage shows the crew of a container ship successfully destroying a Houthi kamikaze boat drone with small-arms fire. The video surfaced overnight on X. There has been no official MSM confirmation of the video so far. Depending on the X user, the crew of the vessel, which is not named, is either Ukrainian or Russian. When you see speed boats like this headed toward your ship in #RedSea, Aden Gulf or Bab El Mandab, shoot at them and destroy them before they blow-up your ship. #Houthi terrorists have so far attacked several oil tankers with these unmanned surface vessels. pic.twitter.com/EfYg7Rgd3g — Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) July 23, 2024 "This video was making the rounds yesterday and seems to be a Houthi USV attacking a containership with the embarked security team opening fire," shipping expert Sal Mercogliano wrote on X. The ship's crew appeared to have successfully repelled the attack. This video was making the rounds yesterday and seems to be a #Houthi USV attacking a containership with the embarked security team opening fire. The USV blew up prior to impact with the ship. https://t.co/Nev7u5pN7Z — Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴☠️ (@mercoglianos) July 23, 2024 The timing of the incident remains unknown. Additionally, the IMO ship identification number and the exact location of the incident have yet to be shared on X. X user H I Sutton provides a detailed guide on the type of vessel the Houthis could use for drone boat attacks. Source: H I Sutton Over the weekend, Israeli fighter jets pounded the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeida in Yemen. This was an unprecedented operation in response to a prior deadly drone attack on Tel Aviv launched from Yemen late last week. Houthis have released footage of other recent boat drone attacks in the critical maritime chokepoint. VIDEO OF THE DAY: The Houthis of Yemen have released a propaganda video of their attack against the oil tanker MT Chios Lion using an uncrewed surface vessel (USV). The oil tanker suffered minor damage and the crew is safe | #OOTT pic.twitter.com/CdMr1kz26v — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 16, 2024 This is supposedly a video of the Houthis’ attack on the MV TUTOR using at least one unmanned surface vessel and/or other projectiles. Those are some big freakin explosions. No owner should be putting their crews at risk like that pic.twitter.com/SPZ0f8JxIi — Mike Schuler (@MikeSchuler) June 19, 2024 As previously noted, the continued disruptions in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have sparked a 'supply shock' in the global economy by sending container rates for certain shipping lanes sky-high. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 19:45
How Does The Economy Really Work?
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How Does The Economy Really Work? Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog, The world economy is an amazingly complex, physics-based, self-organizing system. The three major elements are extracted resources including energy resources, human population, and demand coming through the financial system. Figure 1. Major elements of the world economy according to Gail Tverberg. These are human population, extracted resources including energy resources, and financial demand. All three of these elements tend to increase over time, but both population and extracted resources tend to hit limits because the world is finite. Financial demand is emphasized by politicians because it seems to increase without limit. The extraction limit is not obvious: It is the amount that consumers can afford to pay for resources and the products they create. This limit cuts off resource extraction at amounts that are far below the amounts that geologists calculate are available for extraction. In this post, I will offer some insights into how the world economy actually operates. [1] There is a close relationship between world energy consumption and economic growth. Figure 2. Relationship between inflation-adjusted world GDP and energy consumption based on data of the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute. The fitted years are 1965 to 2023. The R2 =.98 tells us that there is a close relationship between energy consumption and GDP. [2] There is a physics reason why energy consumption and economic growth are related. The economy requires energy for a similar reason to the reason why humans require food. Physics tells us that every action, even the movement of molecules, requires energy dissipation. Within the economy, this energy can be human energy, energy from the sun, or energy from sources such as burned biomass or fossil fuels. In physics terms, the world economy and many structures within the world economy are dissipative structures. These structures are self-organizing, and they often grow over time. Examples are plants and animals, hurricanes, and businesses. Dissipative structures require energy of the right kinds for their continued “life” and for growth. Animals require food for their continued life and growth. Hurricanes get their energy from warm sea water. The fact that the economy is a dissipative structure has been known since 1996 and is written about today. [3] Starting long ago, humans became adapted to eating some cooked food. This change led to humans being able to outcompete all other animals. Eventually, this change led to populations outgrowing available resources and collapsing. According to Discover Magazine, pre-humans first began to build fires to cook food at least 800,000 years ago. The consumption of cooked food allowed early humans to have bigger brains, smaller teeth and jaws, and more time for activities other than chewing, such as making crafts. Humans are now adapted to having some cooked food in their diets to get adequate nutrition. (A few people today try to consume a raw food diet, but they often use a food processor or juicer to break down cell walls.) As a result of the adaptation to eating some cooked food, two major changes took place: (a) Humans were able to achieve dominance over other plants and animals. They could use fire directly to scare away other animals, and they could use fire to help make better tools for hunting and agriculture. (b) Because of this dominance, the population of humans has tended to grow until some kind of limiting condition is hit. The resulting pattern is often called overshoot and collapse. History shows a repeated pattern of overshoot and collapse. A population would grow until the carrying capacity of the local area was reached. Food surpluses would become lower and lower, so less food could be saved up for fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. Eventually, civilizations would succumb to one or another problem: disease, attack by a neighboring group, climate fluctuations, or governments overthrown by unhappy citizens. We tell ourselves that overshoot and collapse cannot happen now, but human population is high relative to fossil fuel resources, and intermittent wind and solar are not working out well as substitutes. [4] The financial system provides growing demand through debt and many other financial promises. An important aspect of this financial demand is its time-shifting ability. Figure 3. Figure made by Gail Tverberg in 2018 to explain the complex interplay of debt, energy supply, devices using energy, growing efficiency, profitability and government laws. Figure 3 shows my view of how the economy works. Debt is indeed important because it helps pull the economy forward. For example, it helps an entrepreneur afford to build a factory and hire workers. As long as the investment pays back well enough to repay the debt with interest, the system seems to work. GDP tends to grow. (Figure 3 also shows five other parts of the system, but I am leaving these to the reader to review.) Debt is not unique in pulling the economy forward. Shares of stock issued with the promise of dividends act similarly to debt because they allow investment before a new product is made. Pension plans, even if not funded, stimulate the economy because citizens decide that they don’t need to save for the future (or have children), if they can depend on the government pension plan to take care of them. Even inflation in the price of a home or shares of stock can have the effect of adding to demand. For example, a person owning shares of stock can sell some appreciated shares of stock and use the proceeds to build a new factory. It is the time-shifting aspect of debt and related promises that is important. With the help of debt and its equivalents, people can spend today to build a road or factory that will provide a long-lasting benefit. The hope is that the total return will be high enough that the debt can be repaid with interest, or that dividends can be paid on the shares of stock. If the economy is growing quickly, interest rates can be quite high without slowing the economy. If energy costs are very high, or if all industries are stagnant, it may be difficult to get any payback at all from a debt-related investment. Instead, interest rates may need to be very low, or debt defaults become likely. Economic growth is likely to be low, or even negative. In one their analyses of borrowing by governments over eight centuries, Reinhart and Rogoff unexpectedly discovered the phenomenon of low defaults among rapidly growing countries. They reported, “It is notable that the non-defaulters, by and large, are all hugely successful growth stories.” [5] Models become very important in today’s economy. They often are misleading, even if they are supposedly scientific. The easiest models to build are ones that assume the future will be very similar to the past, or that the trend from the past will continue. These models tend to be popular with citizens because they suggest that good times will continue indefinitely. Such outcomes are what everyone would like to see, so these models tend to be accepted as “scientifically valid.” In a finite world, many kinds of patterns are constantly changing. Depletion of resources and rising population are particular stressors. Figure 4 shows the base scenario of a 1972 computer model of resource depletion, population growth, and pollution growth. Figure 4. Base scenario from the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth, printed using today’s graphics by Charles Hall and John Day in Revisiting Limits to Growth After Peak Oil. The model used was an engineering-type analysis of the physical quantities involved. This approach did not show growth continuing indefinitely. Instead, it showed a major downturn about now. I have looked at the model myself, and I have talked with Dennis Meadows, who oversaw the analysis. The model looks at resources used in each six-month calendar period. The share of these resources needed for getting these resources out and transformed into usable work cannot be too high, or the economy tends to collapse. (Nature doesn’t use accrual accounting!) In such a calculation, quick payback of an energy investment becomes very important. Also, the amount of supplementary equipment, such as electricity transmission lines and batteries required, becomes important. I would expect that wind, solar, nuclear, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) would do relatively poorly in such a calculation. Oil, coal, and burned biomass would do much better because their energy payback is immediate–when they are burned. Furthermore, oil, coal and biomass require relatively little specialized equipment for transportation and storage. [6] Narratives are created to accompany the questionable models that have been developed. One popular narrative is that Financial Demand is all that really matters. Politicians have significant control over the Financial Demand shown in Figure 1. They can see that if they can create more debt, they can perhaps get some of the money that the debt makes available down to ordinary citizens. With more money, citizens can perhaps buy more goods and services from the world economy. Historically, raising financial demand has worked well because the extraction of fossil fuels and many other resources were well within physical extraction limits. Higher demand would lead to higher prices, which in turn would lead to more extraction. But as we get closer to the physical extraction limits, this approach works less well. The problem is that at some point, finished goods (such as automobiles and groceries) become too expensive for consumers if prices rise high enough to satisfy producers. Because we are now reaching extraction limits, the added debt approach works much less well, as the short tenure of Liz Truss as Prime Minister of the UK in 2022 shows. The problem for countries other than the US is that with added debt, their currencies tend to drop relative to the US dollar. Thus, while perhaps their citizens can individually buy more, the cost of imported goods and services, especially energy, tends to rise. Overall inflation tends to be higher. This causes citizens to become very unhappy. The US is in a unique position because it is currently the holder of the “reserve currency.” Its currency can’t drop relative to the US dollar. However, since 2020, the US has added huge amounts of debt, as have other countries around the world. Asset prices have also risen because of temporarily low interest rates. Newly made goods and services don’t increase in proportion to the rapidly growing debt and other financial stimulus. What tends to happen instead is inflation, as we have recently witnessed. [7] One popular narrative is that if enough demand can be added to the economy through financial manipulations, energy prices will rise sufficiently to allow the needed amount of energy to be extracted. Figure 5. Average annual Brent-equivalent oil prices based on data of the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute. Unfortunately, this doesn’t work. Affordability is important to the consumer, so oil prices can’t rise too high. At the same time, prices cannot fall too low, for too long, or producers will stop extracting oil. Instead, oil prices tend to spike and then fall back. They are to some extent not very acceptable to either buyer or seller. Whether the buyers or sellers are more disadvantaged varies over time. A similar pattern holds for other resources, as well. [8] A third narrative is that climate change caused by excess CO2 is the world’s worst problem, and that the world can voluntarily move away from fossil fuels and fix this problem. Unfortunately, the world economy can no more move away from fossil fuels than humans can move away from eating food. In fact, moving away from fossil fuels would likely lead to starvation for a large share of the world’s population. In 1798, Thomas Malthus wrote about his concern that population was growing too fast relative to food supply. The timing was shortly before fossil fuels began being used very widely. World population at that time as only about 1 billion. World population today is over 8 billion. In part, the climate change narrative seems to be an excuse to move manufacturing from Advanced Economies to economies that make extensive use of coal, as it tends to be a cheap fuel. The latter economies also tend to have lower wage and benefit levels, so there is a definite cost advantage. China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. The result is easy to see in Figure 8 below. The US now exports coal to India and China, among other countries. Figure 6. Coal consumption, divided between the Advanced Economies (members of OECD) and other economies, based on data of the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute. As a person might expect, world CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use have soared. Figure 7. Billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, based on data of the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute. [9] The truth is that there aren’t enough resources to go around to support a growing world population. We are reaching a turning point where the total amount of goods and services that the world economy can produce will soon turn down. (This is not unlike the situation modeled in Figure 4, above.) While the narrative we hear endlessly is “We are moving away from fossil fuels to prevent climate change,” I believe the real issue is that fossil fuels are leaving the world because we are hitting extraction limits. No one wants to hear such an awful story, however. The climate change narrative is a “sour grapes” version of the story that is more palatable to listeners. Figure 8 below shows that the year 2020 should have been a wake-up call that the world needs to cut back on diesel and jet fuels. Diesel fuel is heavily used by agricultural machinery, large trucks, trains and boats. Of course, jet fuel powers jets. With rising world population and a growing economy, it would be expected that their consumption would continue to grow. Diesel and jet fuel are both “middle distillates,” which are most abundantly supplied by heavy oils such as Urals oil from Russia and oil from the Oil Sands in Canada . Figure 8. Diesel and Jet Fuel Consumption based on data of the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute. Between 1990 and 2018, consumption of diesel and jet fuels increased by an average of 1.7% per year. Between 2018 and 2023, there has been no increase at all–in fact, world consumption for 2023 is slightly lower than in 2018. If the 1.7% per year growth pattern had continued, consumption of this combination of fuels would have grown by 8.8% during the five-year period from 2018 and 2023. In a sense, there is a shortfall of approximately 8.8% of the diesel and jet fuel combination. Some airline schedules (especially in Asia) have been cut back. Farmers in Europe are protesting because the selling prices for the crops they grow are not high enough to cover today’s diesel and fertilizer costs plus other costs of production. Diesel is a problem fuel and fertilizer is very energy dependent. If the price of groceries rises high enough to cover the costs of diesel and fertilizer for farmers, grocery costs become unaffordable to many citizens. [10] Added complexity looks like it would be a solution to inadequate energy and other resource supplies. Instead, added complexity leads to wage and wealth disparities and frequent system breakdowns. Complexity can take many forms, including greater specialization; more education for some of the workers; larger, more hierarchical businesses; greater globalization; and ever more complex devices. Such devices can often use energy products more sparingly. Because of these potential energy savings, many people assume that such devices can allow the energy supply that is available to be stretched to cover all the economy’s needs. In practice, it doesn’t work this way. Instead, added complexity often adds to energy demand instead of reducing it. For example, moving significant manufacturing to China starting in late 2001 was a type of added complexity. This change added to world coal demand and increased CO2 emission because the goods produced in China and shipped elsewhere were cheaper and therefore more affordable than goods made in the US or Europe. Another issue with complexity is the susceptibility to breakdowns it produces. Just this past week, there was an example of this with the update of CrowdStrike computer software that took down computer networks around the world. Another example is the problem Kia is having with engines shutting down unexpectedly. Nature uses complexity, but it also incorporates redundancy so that unexpected breakdowns are not a frequent result. A third problem with complexity is that it leads to supply chains for practically everything manufactured in the US or Europe needing to go through China. This makes the US and Europe dependent upon suppliers in China. Even military goods have supply chains running through countries that we are at odds with, including China. This means that China can, in many ways, “hold the US hostage,” by refusing to sell the US rare earth minerals, or by refusing to provide parts of supply chains needed for military armaments. Perhaps the most important problem of all with added complexity is the wage and wealth disparities that it leads to. With added complexity, there is more specialization. A few workers with considerable training and advanced degrees get high paying jobs. The wages for these workers, plus the wages for managers, leave little funding left over for less trained workers. Also, competition with workers in low wage countries tends to hold down wages for less-skilled workers. Besides the wage disparities, some people, mostly those who are already high-wage earners, become owners of these companies. If stock prices rise, this increases the wealth disparities between the rank-and-file workers and those at the top of the hierarchy. The higher-wage people also tend to purchase homes, and the price-appreciation on their homes adds to their wealth. Physicist Francois Roddier, in his book The Thermodynamics of Evolution, explains that this growing wage and wealth disparities are to be expected when energy supplies are short, and added complexity is attempted as a substitute. Already wealthy people tend to get a disproportionate share of the goods and services produced by the economy, while poor people increasingly get squeezed out because of the physics of the situation. [11] Ultimately, not enough goods and services to go around leads to conflicts of many types. These include conflict within political parties, within countries, and among countries. I believe this issue is behind the conflict we are experiencing today. I will leave this issue for another post. [12] Slowing growth is likely to lead to bankruptcies and financial collapse. This is another issue that I will leave for another post. [13] Conclusion I hope these thoughts are somewhat helpful. I have only touched on a few aspects of how the economy really works. Perhaps I can offer more ideas on this subject in the future. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 19:25
Watch: Russia Mounts Ballistic Missile Strike On Western Arms Depot In Ukraine
1721775900 from ZEROHEDGE
Watch: Russia Mounts Ballistic Missile Strike On Western Arms Depot In Ukraine Russia's military has released new video as part of ongoing warnings to the West as it pours weapons and ammo into Ukraine. Moscow also continues to warn against the West introducing F-16s into the conflict, which is imminent. The Russian Defense Ministry on Tuesday published footage purporting to show the destruction of a large warehouse filled with US-supplied weapons, specifically including a HIMARS multiple rocket launcher system. The depot was destroyed by a Russian ballistic missile, with the video showing an extensive building engulfed in huge flames. Watch: Russian media details that the US-supplied HIMARS system was "discovered by a surveillance drone and was tracked to a hangar in the village of Novopetrovka, in Ukraine’s Nikolayev Region." "The location was hit by a ballistic missile fired by an Iskander-M system, the Russian military reported on Monday, adding that the HIMARS and its crew had been destroyed," the report continues. The destruction and aftermath was then filmed by Russian surveillance drones. Meanwhile, Ukraine launched its own attack, this time sending drones to Russia's Krasnodar Region’s Kavkaz port, which lies on the eastern side of Kerch Strait. It was a rare moment that Ukraine attacked a ferry, resulting in a handful of casualties and one death. "The Kiev regime has once again attempted to carry out a terrorist act on the territory of the Krasnodar Region. This morning the drones attacked a ferry in the port of Kavkaz. Unfortunately, there are casualties and a fatality among the crew members and port employees," the region's governor wrote on Telegram. Port where the ferry was attacked, via TASS A fire also resulted after the rare attack on the ferry as it was in operation. However, reports suggest the ferry was not carrying large groups of civilians at the time it was struck. Ukraine has not backed off its frequent cross-border drone strikes on Russian territory. Moscow has at the same time stepped-up its targeting of Western assets and weapons inside Ukraine, in a continued escalation spiral. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 19:05
Google Reversing Third-Party Cookie Phaseout In Favor Of New Strategy
1721774700 from ZEROHEDGE
Google Reversing Third-Party Cookie Phaseout In Favor Of New Strategy Authored by Stephen Katte via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The Google logo in Las Vegas on Jan. 10, 2024. (Steve Marcus/Reuters) Global tech giant Google said it plans to reverse an earlier decision to phase out third-party cookies in its Chrome browser and instead focus on a new strategy involving user choice. In 2020, Google announced a new initiative, Privacy Sandbox, which would phase out third-party cookies, the data stored in web browsers that lets companies track users and help advertisers target ads. At the time, the tech giant said the goal was to make the “web more private and secure for users while also supporting publishers.” However, a July 22 blog post from Anthony Chavez, vice president of the Privacy Sandbox initiative, revealed that these plans have shifted after feedback from stakeholders such as regulators, web developers and advertisers. “This feedback has helped us craft solutions that aim to support a competitive and thriving marketplace that works for publishers and advertisers, and encourage the adoption of privacy-enhancing technologies,” Mr. Chavez said. Mr. Chavez says Google is proposing to give users a choice to limit how third-party cookies are used in their browsers instead of outright removing them. Users will have some input into how they are tracked across Google’s search products. There is already a feature to disable cookies in most browsers, and it’s unclear how this latest proposal from Google would differ. “We are proposing an updated approach that elevates user choice,” Mr. Chavez said. “Instead of deprecating third-party cookies, we would introduce a new experience in Chrome that lets people make an informed choice that applies across their web browsing, and they'd be able to adjust that choice at any time.” According to Mr. Chavez, Google is discussing its new plans with regulators and “will engage with the industry as we roll this out.” Troubled from the start In January 2020, Google promised to phase out third-party cookies within two years. The timeline has been extended multiple times in response to concerns from advertisers and regulators. Google carried out several cookie replacement experiments, but none gained full support. FLoC, Google’s initial cookie replacement, was scrapped in 2022 after two years over concerns it was inadvertently making it easier for advertisers to gather user information. Over the last few years, the advertising and publishing industry has raised concerns about Privacy Sandbox’s impact on advertising effectiveness, campaign performance, and revenue. In January, the UK’s antitrust enforcer, the CMA, also flagged 39 concerns about Google’s Privacy Sandbox and urged the company to pause plans to implement it. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 18:45
Kelly Surges Ahead Of Shapiro As Top Contender For Harris' Veep Pick
1721773500 from ZEROHEDGE
Kelly Surges Ahead Of Shapiro As Top Contender For Harris' Veep Pick With Vice President Kamala Harris now expected to secure the Democratic Party’s nomination for the 2024 presidential race, the next crucial decision will be selecting a running mate to complete the ticket. As Emel Akan reports via The Epoch Times, after President Joe Biden endorsed Ms. Harris as the party’s nominee on July 21, several names have been floated as her potential running mate. As RealClearPolitics notes, her VP pick could make or break her chances at beating Trump. The choice of a running mate says a lot about the judgment of the presidential nominee and it can increase support for ticket. Political scientists Chris Devine and Kyle Kopko find that a popular pick of a vice-presidential nominee has the most influence on boosting perceptions of the president who chooses them. This would be of particular importance as Kamala Harris has a relatively high number of Americans who have not yet made up their minds about her. Beyond the electoral effects, running mates matter because vice presidents are just one heartbeat away from the presidency, the most powerful elected position on the planet. For this reason, it is important that a presidential nominee get this choice right. ... The most important condition is whether the individual is qualified. Sometimes, out of desperation, nominees give short shrift to this criterion, and they pick an individual for electoral reasons, governing be damned. Arizona Sen. John McCain’s selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in 2008 is a premier example of this. The selection was widely panned, with many believing Palin was not qualified for the position. So with that said - here is a list of the leading candidates who are currently in the spotlight. Gov. Josh Shapiro Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, 51, has emerged as a top contender for the vice presidential pick. Before assuming office in 2023, he served as the state’s attorney general from 2017 to 2023. Story continues below advertisement He is frequently mentioned as a strong candidate for the VP role due to his status as a swing state Democrat and his reputation for being moderate. He is Jewish and a strong supporter of Israel. Mr. Shapiro endorsed Ms. Harris in a statement on Sunday. “I will do everything I can to help elect Kamala Harris as the 47th President of the United States,” he said. Gov. Andy Beshear Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, 46, rose to prominence with his election as governor in the deep-red state of Kentucky in 2019. He gained reelection to a second term in November 2023. His name is also circulating as a possible VP pick. Karen Hult, a political science professor at Virginia Tech, told The Epoch Times that although Kentucky is not a swing state, it is an Appalachian state, making him an “interesting counterpoise” to former President Donald Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), author of “Hillbilly Elegy.” Mr. Beshear endorsed Ms. Harris on X, stating that “she’s incredibly tough & smart, w/ the compassion and empathy to be a phenomenal president.” Gov. Roy Cooper Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina, 67, has served as governor since 2017. Before that, he was the state attorney general from 2001 to 2017. North Carolina is a key battleground state, although former President Donald Trump won the state both in 2016 and 2020. Mr. Cooper endorsed Ms. Harris for the presidential nomination in a statement posted on X on Sunday. “Kamala Harris should be the next President. I’ve known @VP going back to our days as AGs, and she has what it takes to defeat Donald Trump and lead our country thoughtfully and with integrity,” he wrote. “I look forward to campaigning for her as we work to win NC up and down the ticket.” Sen. Mark Kelly Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), 60, has served in the Senate since 2020. He’s a former NASA astronaut and Navy combat pilot. Mr. Kelly has national recognition from being married to former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), who survived an assassination attempt in 2011. Ms. Giffords was shot in the head at a constituent event near Tucson, Arizona, while she was serving her third term in Congress. The attack left Ms. Giffords partially paralyzed and led to her becoming a gun control activist. Mr. Kelly, like Ms. Harris, has advocated for tighter gun control. “He’s quite articulate, and he is more conservative and has a fairly strong defense and national security grounding,” Ms. Hult said. “So, he could also be a very attractive candidate.” The Arizona senator, in a statement on X, threw his support behind Ms. Harris, stating, “I couldn’t be more confident that Vice President @KamalaHarris is the right person to defeat Donald Trump.” Other Candidates Other notable names mentioned include Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore. However, both have stated that they are not interested in joining the presumptive Harris ticket. Some other names considered include California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker. “It’s going to be about balancing the ticket,” David Carlucci, a Democrat strategist and former New York state senator, told The Epoch Times. Mr. Carlucci noted that the Harris campaign will be looking closely at who can propel the campaign in crucial battleground states. He said he believes Democrats from swing states, such as Mr. Shapiro from Pennsylvania or Mr. Kelly from Arizona, “are going to be eyed very closely.” While the vetting process is just getting started, a senior administration official told ABC News' Martha Raddatz that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly are the leading candidates to be Harris' running mate. According to the latest prediction markets, Kelly is surging ahead of Shapiro... Source: Bloomberg The two men come from key 2024 battleground states, and have experience battling Trump-endorsed candidates. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 18:25
The White-Collar Job Squeeze
1721772300 from ZEROHEDGE
The White-Collar Job Squeeze Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times, The other day, I was tooling around at the grocery store and, in line to check out, I noticed a clothes hamper in the shopping cart in front of me. I thought it was pretty nice. I said so to the person pushing the cart. Yes, I know it is awkward to strike up such conversations but I’m glad I did. I quickly found that the shopper was not buying for himself but for a customer of Instacart, an online ordering service. He was working and shopping as a customer himself. Intrigued, I asked other questions. He has a university degree, recently earned, another full-time job, and just does this to put money in the bank and pay the rent. Casually digging around further, it turns out that this person is deeply grateful for this second job because otherwise he would be bankrupt and have to move home across the country to live with his parents. This whole scene struck me as odd, so the next time, I began to wonder about other shoppers and tried the same line of inquiry. As it turns out, several more people there were working for various online shopping companies, Instacart among others. They all had similar stories of hustling as much as possible in the evening hours to pay the bills. Truly, I had no idea that many people in our grocery stores today are not there buying for their families but for other businesses. They are gig workers. It’s their second and third jobs. I feel silly not to have known this but I’m not among those who have used such services. But plenty of people do. And that results in jobs for which people are deeply grateful because they have to pay their bills. My friends, this is not normal. It has a Weimar vibe: wild economic activity and opportunity amidst a scramble to maintain one’s standard of living. It’s a hamster wheel with just enough payoff to keep it turning. Young people should not be doing this, particularly not those with high-level college training and expectations of the good life just right around the corner. A story in the Wall Street Journal has gripped me. It’s about a kid who attended a very fancy school, Loyola University in Chicago. A degree there costs about $280,000 plus four years of lost job experience. You pay it because the credential is great and opens up a world of opportunities. The young person the story chronicled obtained a degree in English literature and imagined a future of working for a major publisher, perhaps advising the next F. Scott Fitzgerald. Upon graduation, he started sending out resumes. Ten. Then a hundred. Then several hundred. Then a thousand. Months went by. He heard nothing from any of the companies. Despairing, he started writing to local newspapers. Nothing. Then he tried writing and marketing his material. Nothing. After nearly a year and facing utter bankruptcy, he finally landed a job: a part-time cook but mostly dishwasher at a local diner. For that he is grateful. Indeed. Please understand: this person came from a wealthy family and went to the highest-end school. He got excellent grades throughout school. He graduated with honors. He had a network. But when actually going out there and trying to find gainful employment, he had come up with absolutely nothing. It took him a long time but he finally realized that there is nothing wrong with dishwashing. Any job is a respectable job. And all kudos to him for being willing to tell a reporter his story. It’s hardly unique. It’s the experience of a whole generation. These days, sending out thousands of applications and hearing nothing is considered normal. A person of my generation cannot imagine this but it is true. The WSJ says: “The white-collar labor market is entering a more uncertain phase after cooling for more than a year. Job insecurity is climbing and fewer professionals feel emboldened to change their employment. The lack of turnover is stalling hiring even more as companies rethink their talent needs after pandemic-hiring sprees.” That much is very obvious. The hiring boom was always fragile and sketchy. Now it is ending as the financial squeeze from inflation eats away at corporate profits and payrolls shrink across the entire white-collar world. A whole generation has been caught off guard. They followed all the rules. They went into massive debt. They did what they were supposed to do, on the promise that all will work out in the end. Sadly, nothing is working out after all. Not even the restaurant and hospitality sector is offering gainful employment. This is a huge change from just one year ago, when at least young people had the option of serving tables. That is no longer true. Those who have such jobs are deeply fortunate. And they know it. It’s all the more frustrating for people under 30 to realize that the system that has robbed them of opportunity and income—buying a home is out of the question but not even owning a car is possible—is being run by people with massive retirement accounts who are over the age of 70. This is the old exploiting the young, not intentionally but in effect. The post-pandemic and actual pandemic economy always had the feeling of unreality about it. It was funded by fake money and debt plus subsidies. Most people had the confidence that all would work out because it always had. But this supposition runs headlong into the reality of accounting. Nothing really added up. Inflation is simply not going away and it has eaten into living standards. It is far higher than the government is reporting. Everyone knows this now. Quite simply: the government numbers exclude interest, shrinkflation, added fees, and a realistic accounting of housing prices and insurance. It doesn’t matter how many Nobel Laureates say that all is well. American citizens know it is not. For a while, people believed that the magic of technological innovation would once again save us. Artificial intelligence stocks soared and the companies that seized on this new shiny object seemed to be the darlings of Wall Street. But in the last week, that too has changed as major institutional investors are asking old-fashioned questions about price-earnings (P/E) ratios and underlying values. Wall Street says this is merely “rotation.” Rotation is to stocks as “transitory” is to inflation. The post-lockdown jobs boom was always artificial, a product of miscounting and misreporting. But whatever strength appeared to be there is now melting away, leaving dislocation and stagnation, even in sectors like hospitality that were reliable only 10 months ago. (Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker) Hard times are coming and most people get this. It’s going to be difficult for the new presidential administration. There is no magic solution, as much as we might want one. All budgets, including government budgets, must be cut severely. We have no choice but austerity. It is going to come whether we want it or not. The flight to value will continue. The new fashion will be for real jobs, real balance sheets, real assets, and real lives. It’s about time. Nothing in the political theater of our times will change this. These are extremely uncertain days, ripe for all sorts of possibilities. Let us all hope that we will choose freedom and sound money as the only real alternative to stagnation and collapse. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 18:05
"Hydrothermal Explosion" Rocks Yellowstone National Park
1721771100 from ZEROHEDGE
"Hydrothermal Explosion" Rocks Yellowstone National Park Yellowstone National Park announced on X that a "hydrothermal explosion" occurred earlier today near Sapphire Pool in Biscuit Basin, just north of Old Faithful. (Heads Up!) Biscuit Basin in Yellowstone National Park temporarily closed due to hydrothermal explosion. More info: https://t.co/tcDR8oRNSx pic.twitter.com/YP7CkwNrQR — Yellowstone National Park (@YellowstoneNPS) July 23, 2024 Park rangers provided more color on their website about the incident: Biscuit Basin, including the parking lot and boardwalks, are temporarily closed for safety reasons. The Grand Loop Road remains open. No injuries were reported and the extent of damage is unknown at this time. Park staff and staff from USGS will monitor conditions and reopen the area once deemed safe. Dramatic video footage of the rapid ejection of boiling water, steam, mud, and rock fragments captured by tourists has surfaced on X. 🚨#BREAKING: Onlookers and tourists run for their lives as Biscuit Basin geyser erupts and explodes throwing hot boiling water and debris into the air 📌#Yellowstone | #Wyoming Watch as wild and frightening footage capturing crowds of tourists and onlookers desperately… pic.twitter.com/WB0ldAGHz8 — R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) July 23, 2024 Hydrothermal explosions can reach heights of 1.2 miles high, ejecting mostly breccia (angular rocks cemented by clay). Park rangers said, "Today’s explosion does not reflect a change in the volcanic system, which remains at normal background levels of activity." Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 17:45
Was Donald Trump The Victim Of White Privilege? A Democratic Member Wants To Know
1721770200 from ZEROHEDGE
Was Donald Trump The Victim Of White Privilege? A Democratic Member Wants To Know Authored by Jonathan Turley, For most of us, this election could not become more confusing. However, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D., Tx.) may have added a whole new level of confusion for many in suggesting that Donald Trump may have been the latest victim of systemic racism among law enforcement in the United States. Trump previously cited his alleged abuse in the criminal justice system as a point of shared experience with some in the black community. Crockett, however, seems to be willing to go further in suggesting that he may be the latest victim of a racist law enforcement system. In the hearing with Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle, the failure to stop and hold Thomas Crooks was raised by both parties in an unprecedented failure of security. Crockett then got her chance and suggested that Trump may have come close to dying at the hands of white privilege. “I want to talk about training and the fact that there was a little bit of confusion between this suspicious person and this perceived threat situation, and it seems like a different analysis is being done. One of my questions is what training your officers are getting on bias. I’ve learned over and over again, dealing with law enforcement, that there’s generally no perception of threat when it’s a young white male, even if he’s carrying a long gun. Yet a lot of times, at least in this country, when it comes to law enforcement, there’s a perception of threat simply because a person has a little bit more melanin in their skin. …Often times, one of the things that we’ve consistently advocated for on my side — and when I say my side, I mean when we’re faced with a tragedy where law enforcement has made a mistake — is bias training and whether or not our officers are getting it. So I’m curious, in some of the training that you’re talking about that’s part of your budget, is bias training part of it?” Cheatle responded with “Yes, that’s true.” (An apparent response to the training element). Notably, Crockett began by getting Cheatle to acknowledge that this was not a failure due to DEI, or Diversity Equity and Inclusion, policies. She then suggested that further DEI training may be needed in light of the assassination attempt. To be clear, there is no evidence that Crooks was allowed to walk away after being spotted with a “long gun.” The current theory is that Crooks hid the gun before the event. Moreover, he was identified as a possible threat due to being found with a golf range finder. However, that was not considered a barred or threatening device by the Secret Service. Yet, Trump may find common ground here with Vice President Kamala Harris who has long maintained that “We do have two systems of justice” and has added: “I don’t think that most reasonable people who are paying attention to the facts would dispute that there are racial disparities and a system that has engaged in racism in terms of how the laws have been enforced. It does us no good to deny that. Let’s just deal with it. Let’s be honest. These might be difficult conversations for some, but they’re not difficult conversations for leaders, not for real leaders.” Trump may be willing to have the “difficult conversation” as the now purported victim of white privilege in the dismissal of would-be presidential assassins. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 17:30
WTI Rebounds Off Technical Support After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws
1721769600 from ZEROHEDGE
WTI Rebounds Off Technical Support After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws Oil futures settled at their lowest level in over six weeks on Tuesday, with U.S. prices extending losses into a fourth straight session, as worries about a slowdown in demand fed broad weakness among commodities. "Oil bears appear to be getting in early ahead of the seasonal decline for oil prices," Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity, told MarketWatch. Over the past five years, crude prices have averaged monthly declines from August through November, he said. Oil benchmarks have been "dragged lower by renewed concerns over Chinese demand, given the absence of further economic support out of Beijing," said Tan. But all eyes are back on the tactical leg next as inventory data is due... API Crude: -3.9M Cushing: -1.6M Gasoline: -2.8M Distillates: -1.5M Crude stocks fell for the fourth straight week as API reports inventory-draws across all segments... Source: Bloomberg WTI is extending its bounce off technical support (200DMA) after API reported the draws... Both Brent and WTI oil futures settled Wednesday at their lowest since June 7, with WTI prices down a fourth session in a row. In a note, Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said headwinds for oil are likely to come from the "generally negative market sentiment towards cyclical commodities, which is also reflected in the fall in the price of base metals." Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 17:20
Truth Is The Casualty Of Our Political Wars
1721768400 from ZEROHEDGE
Truth Is The Casualty Of Our Political Wars Authored by J.Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics.com, These times are different because nowadays political lies are often in plain sight. A healthy majority of Americans could see for years that President Biden was not fit to serve another four years. But that didn’t stop Democratic Party leaders and their media megaphones from insisting repeatedly that he was “sharp as a tack.” Biden’s fractured debate performance – and his broken attempts to demonstrate command in the weeks that followed – only confirmed that the emperor had no clothes. It was a game changer only because the power brokers who actually control the party realized that their fraud had been exposed; the jig was up. Reality finally overwhelmed their narrative. In a New York minute they went from proclaiming Biden the savior of our democracy to humiliating him as a stubborn old fool. Never mind the national interest, the diminished president only had to go when he no longer proved useful to party bosses. Given this lightning-bolt 180, one might feel sorry for the president. What the heck happened, man? But he is not just Scranton Joe, he is leader of the free world. His diminished capacity puts America, and the world, at risk. The fact that Democrats and their allies are trying to shut down discussion of whether he is truly capable of carrying out the duties of his office as two large wars rage and China is threatening Taiwan shows they are more concerned about their party than our country. Pushing Biden out allows Democrats to push the reset button on their palpably false narratives. We are already being told that Biden selflessly put America first when, in fact, he had selfishly refused for weeks, maybe years, to acknowledge his decline. Biden always put himself first; they will insist on the opposite. Even though Biden’s job approval rating was dismal even before the June 27 debate, Democrats and their media allies are now pretending that he was one of the most effective leaders in American history. Their strategy is to exploit America’s deep reservoir of compassion and goodwill regarding a sympathetic, well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory to delegitimize critiques of his failed policies. We get to say he was a lion; those who complain are nasty jackals gnawing at wounded prey. Democrats’ new presumptive nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, offers them a new canvas to paint – though not as clean as ones that might be offered by relative unknowns such Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, whom they could have turned into anybody they wanted. Given that Harris was selected as vice president because Biden promised to pick a woman of color – an identity that makes her hard to bypass now that Biden is out – one wonders if the Democrats will be hoist on their DEI petard just as Republicans paid the price for their opposition to abortion in 2022. Nevertheless, just as they depicted Biden as a vigorous and visionary figure, they will now portray Harris as the hands-down best choice, a bold new leader who has come to the rescue of her party and the country. Even as they attach her to Biden’s supposed achievements, they will cast the president’s unpopular positions – especially regarding immigration and Harris’ role as border czar – as backward looking. Americans want us to focus on her plans for the future. Harris’ approval ratings have been lower than Biden’s for a reason. While accomplishing almost nothing as vice president she has become famous for her inane word salads and dysfunctional office. Expect all of the that to be swept under the rug, cast, like the videos showing Biden’s weakness, as “cheap fakes.” Most Americans know better, but Democrats and their media propagandists will do it anyway, because that’s their modus operandi. They don’t just concoct false narratives, they continue advancing them long after they have been debunked. Despite the Mueller Report, they still say Donald Trump colluded with Vladimir Putin to steal the 2016 election. While transcripts clearly show that Trump did not praise the neo-Nazis who marched at Charlottesville or advise Americans to inject bleach to fight COVID, they repeat such canards ad nauseam. Even though they defied the Supreme Court’s ruling on student loans, ignored the law to create open borders, sought to remove their opponents from the ballot, and used the courts to undermine their biggest political rival, their main campaign message is that Trump is an existential threat to democracy. No wonder a recent poll found that one-third of Biden voters believe the Trump assassination attempt was staged. This and more would be laughable if it weren’t so serious. Of course, Trump and other Republicans spew nonsense all the time. The difference is, the press works tirelessly – and often tendentiously – to challenge these assertions. The American people are fully aware of their missteps and mistruths, while Democrat falsehoods are often hidden, dismissed, given a pass. Democrats say that the November election is a battle for America’s soul. Their tactics remind us of the adage that “truth is the first casualty of war.” But, as Biden’s withdrawal also shows, sometimes reality wins out. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 17:00
Tesla Slides As Profit, Margins Disappoint; Production Of "More Affordable Models" To Begin In First Half Of 2025
1721767501 from ZEROHEDGE
Tesla Slides As Profit, Margins Disappoint; Production Of "More Affordable Models" To Begin In First Half Of 2025 As previewed earlier, today's TSLA print is likely to be ugly: the company was the only Mag7 member expected to report negative earnings growth as a result of continued anemic sales, even though unlike Q1, in Q2 Tesla sold more than 33,000 cars than they produced which cleared out some inventory that had been a real overhang. So once again, a key metric for Wall Street this quarter is gross margin, or how much of a profit hit Musk took to clear out the inventory. That said, in a note last week, Ben Kallo of Robert W. Baird wrote that “we think gross margin likely benefits from higher mix to the energy segment as well as higher regulatory credits.” The other big thing markets want clarity on is the great Robotaxi unveil: last month, we learned that it was delayed from Aug. 8, so Musk will likely announce a new date. To be sure, investors will be counting on the Robotaxi, which Musk has also called a “Cybercab,” to drive the company’s next wave of growth. So, as Bloomberg asks, "are we going to just get a new date, or actually hear more about this vehicles capabilities, regulatory approvals and business model?" Turning to the company's existing products, one can argue that Tesla’s existing car lineup is old, while Cybertruck sales are off to a slow start as interest rates remain sky high. So what is Tesla’s sales outlook for 2024? Tesla sold about 1.8 million vehicles globally in 2023. So far this year, they have sold about 831,000. Tesla will surely need to pick up the pace in the back half of the year and deliver a million units just in order to keep sales flat. Finally, while TSLA's quarter’s earnings call isn’t expected to be very exciting, there are still some important topics that Musk and the team might touch on: Cheaper Tesla models. On the previous earnings call, Musk mentioned that Tesla was still committed to more affordable models and accelerating their launch. But few details were provided. Do these models – which Musk promised by early 2025 at the latest – exist? NACS integration. After laying off the entire supercharging team, Tesla appeared to hire back some of them. That team had been responsible for integrating other companies’ electric vehicles with the ability to access the Tesla Super Charging Network. Only Rivian and Ford have access to date — what about everyone else? Autonomy and Robotaxi. Will Musk be able to keep investors happy with Tesla’s Robotaxi unveiling moved to October? With all that in mind, here is the hot mess the company reported for the second quarter, which reveal that the margin pain taken to clear out all those excess cars was all too real: Q2 Revenue $25.5BN, up 2% YoY, and beating estimates of $24.63BN. That's the good news... Q2 Adj EPS 52c, down 43% YoY, and missing estimates of 60c Q2 Operating income $1.61BN, down 33% YoY and missing estimates of $1.81BN Q2 Automotive Gross Margin Ex-Regulatory Credits 14.6%, missing estimates Q2 Free Cash Flow $1.34BN, +34% YoY but missing estimates of 1.92BN In short: a hot mess as summarized below: Charted, the results are not pretty but certainly an improvement from last quarter. No amount of charts however will deflect attention from the ongoing double-digit drop in profits - and the fact that this was the fourth straight quarter that Tesla has missed profit expectations - and margin decline, which the company explained as follows: Our operating income decreased YoY to $1.6B in Q2, resulting in a 6.3% operating margin. YoY, operating income was primarily impacted by the following items:- reduced S3XY vehicle ASP as noted above - restructuring charges - increase in operating expenses largely driven by AI projects - decline in S3XY vehicle deliveries + higher regulatory credit revenue + growth in Energy Generation and Storage gross profit + lower cost per vehicle, including lower raw material costs, freight and duties + lower cost of production ramp of 4680 cells and other related charges What's worse, it was once again the sale of regulatory credits that saved the day: $890 million this quarter, more than double from $442 million last quarter. “We recognized record regulatory credit revenues in Q2 as other OEMs are still behind on meeting emissions requirements,” says Tesla in the shareholder deck. That's the bad news. The good news is that this was the first quarter in a year that revenues beat estimates, and the outlook got a boost as TSLA now expects a "sequential increase in production in Q3" as it "continued to add to our vehicle lineup globally, including the introduction of new Model 3 and Model Y trims and additional paint options for the S3XY lineup." Some more highlights from the letter: Tesla Still Sees ‘Notably Lower’ Volume Growth Rate for 2024, as its teams "work on the launch of the next generation vehicle and other products. In 2024, the growth rates of energy storage deployments and revenue in our Energy Generation and Storage business should outpace the Automotive business." Tesla's "purpose-built Robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy" Here, the company notes that the timing of Robotaxi deployment depends on technological advancement and regulatory approval, and TSLA is "working vigorously on this opportunity given the outsized potential value." Focus remains "on company-wide cost reduction, including reducing COGS per vehicle, growing traditional hardware business and accelerating development of our AIenabled products and services." In other words, Tesla is saying that they it deliver less than the 1.8 million cars they delivered in 2023: As for the Cybertruck - which became the best-selling EV pickup in the U.S. in Q2 - the company reported that "production more than tripled sequentially and remains on track to achieve profitability by end of year." Oh, and the Semi got an honorable mention: discussing the car which was unveiled in November 2017, Tesla said that "preparation of Semi factory continues and is on track to begin production by end of 2025." While the disappointing results would likely have been enough to hammer the stock - even more - after hours, TSLA is only modestly lower thanks perhaps to these three paragraphs in the company's "product outlook" section, which reaffirm what everyone has been hoping for: cheaper cars are coming some time in H1 2025. Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up. This approach will result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This should help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines. Our purpose-built Robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy. Here, Tesla again notes that it will release more “affordable models” by the first half of 2025; then again, in the last earnings call, Elon Musk made it seem like it would be early 2025, so perhaps the timeline was once again pushed back a bit. Offering a clearer product pipeline like other automakers in the US - such as Rivian or GM - might help ease concerns that the company is ignoring the core EV business. Understandably, Tesla dedicated a section of the report to its AI efforts, as follows: Artificial Intelligence Software and Hardware In Q2, we focused on reducing interventions with FSD (Supervised), while improving driving comfort. Notably, we rolled out a version of FSD (Supervised) that primarily relies on eye tracking software to monitor driver attentiveness. We also increased the robustness of our next gen FSD (Supervised) model with substantially more parameters. Looking ahead to future autonomous driving and robotaxi service, we continued progress on software and hardware development. Optimus is performing its first task handling batteries in one of our facilities. The south extension of Gigafactory Texas is nearing completion and will house our largest cluster of H100s yet Elsewhere, Tesla deployed a staggering amount of energy storage during the quarter -- 9.4 gigawatt hours -- and revenue for that part of the business doubled from the second quarter of 2023. The company previously predicted storage would grow faster than car sales. As Bloomberg notes, that turned out to be quite an understatement. Even though it is no longer a pressing issue, Tesla noted that its quarter-end cash was $30.7B, with the sequential increase of $3.9B a "result of positive free cash flow of $1.3B, driven by an inventory decrease of $1.8B and partially offset by AI infrastructure capex of $0.6B in Q2." With the stock soaring in the past month, if sliding modestly in the the past week, TSLA shares dipped as much as 4% after hours before recovering some of their losses to last trade around $237. The full Tesla earnings presentation can be found here. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 16:45
Schumer Endorses Kamala During 'Cringefest' DC Presser; Asks For Applause, Doesn't Get Any
1721766600 from ZEROHEDGE
Schumer Endorses Kamala During 'Cringefest' DC Presser; Asks For Applause, Doesn't Get Any Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) failed to drum up enthusiasm for Kamala Harris among reporters while endorsing her bid for the Democrat presidential nomination during a press conference on Capitol Hill, Tuesday. Schumer, 73, said Joe Biden’s “selfless decision” not to run “has given the Democratic Party the opportunity to unite behind a new nominee,” and since his announcement, the party has “swiftly coalesced” around Harris, "and boy oh boy are we enthusiastic." Schumer then ludicrously told reporters that the machinations of the Democrat party’s power brokers to oust Biden once he was deemed unelectable was a “grassroots, bottom up” process. “When I spoke with her Sunday, she said she wanted the opportunity to win the nomination on her own, and to do so from the grassroots up, not top down,” Schumer said. “Now that the process has played out, from the grassroots, bottom up, we are here today throw our support behind Vice President Kamala Harris!” Schumer declared with gusto, while clapping his hands. Schumer went on: "...we are brimming with excitement, enthusiasm, unity." In reaction to the dead silence that ensued, Schumer told reporters: “I’m clapping—you don’t have to.” Laughing, he added, “it’s a happy day, what can I say?” The New York Democrat continued, saying: “Kamala Harris and her candidacy has excited and energized the House Democratic Caucus, the Democratic Party and the nation. I’m proud to strongly endorse Kamala Harris to be the 47th president of the United States of America!” He paused and waited for applause, but there wasn’t any. “Applause?” he asked weakly, pointing to members of the press. Schumer then handed the mike over to Jeffries, who said that Harris is “ready, willing and able to lead us into the future.” When Schumer was asked during the Q&A whether he had “personally asked” Biden to step down during his visit to Biden’s beach house in Delaware on July 13, the senator didn’t deny it. “Look, what I would say is that the president has done an amazing, amazing job as president—one of the best we’ve ever had and he put his country first and made the right decision,” he said. Watch the farcical cringefest here... Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 16:30
Alphabet Shares Unimpressed Despite Top- & Bottom-Line Beat
1721765793 from ZEROHEDGE
Alphabet Shares Unimpressed Despite Top- & Bottom-Line Beat Alphabet reported better than expected top- and bottom-lines for the second quarter after the bell tonight. Revenue $84.74 billion, estimate $84.37 billion Revenue ex-TAC $71.36 billion, estimate $70.7 billion EPS $1.89, estimate $1.84 Cloud revenues were particularly strong as the rest of the business segments were basically in line (with Ad revenue solid)... Google Services revenue $73.93 billion, estimate $73.58 billion Google advertising revenue $64.62 billion, estimate $64.53 billion YouTube ads revenue $8.66 billion, estimate $8.95 billion Google Search & Other Revenue $48.51 billion, estimate $47.65 billion Google Network Revenue $7.44 billion, estimate $7.87 billion Google Subscriptions, Platforms and Devices Revenue $9.31 billion, estimate $9.38 billion Google Cloud revenue $10.35 billion, estimate $10.09 billion Other Bets revenue $365 million, estimate $389.6 million Ruth Porat, President and Chief Investment Officer; CFO said: “We delivered revenues of $85 billion, up 14% year-on-year driven by Search as well as Cloud, which for the first time exceeded $10 billion in quarterly revenues and $1 billion in operating profit. As we invest to support our highest growth opportunities, we remain committed to creating investment capacity with our ongoing work to durably re-engineer our cost base.” Sundar Pichai, CEO, said: “Our strong performance this quarter highlights ongoing strength in Search and momentum in Cloud. We are innovating at every layer of the AI stack. Our longstanding infrastructure leadership and in-house research teams position us well as technology evolves and as we pursue the many opportunities ahead.” The initial kneejerk reaction was 3-4% lower (perhaps on the lack of big beat), but that has reversed and GOOGL is trading higher in the after-hours... Let's see if this can hold... Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 16:16
Small Caps Surge On Short-Squeeze, Sloppy-Surveys; ETH Outperforms BTC As ETFs Launch
1721764800 from ZEROHEDGE
Small Caps Surge On Short-Squeeze, Sloppy-Surveys; ETH Outperforms BTC As ETFs Launch An ugly day for macro with hard data (US home sales) and soft data (regional Fed surveys) all puking... Source: Bloomberg ...was just the bad news needed to spark good news in STIRs as rate-cut expectations rebounded... Source: Bloomberg After yesterday's big exciting "everything's awesome" day, stocks, broadly-speaking did nothing today though as only Small Caps showed any willingness to move. Late-day selling pressure did not help, pulling everything but Small Caps into the red with Nasdaq the biggest loser... ...but that looked like yet another big short-squeeze.... Source: Bloomberg The NDX/RTY unwind resumed today... Source: Bloomberg MAG7 stocks went nowhere ahead of GOOGL/TSLA earnings after the bell... Source: Bloomberg Treasuries were mixed today with the short-end outperforming... Source: Bloomberg ...which dragged the yield curve (2s30s) almost to being dis-inverted.... Source: Bloomberg Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin on the day as ETH ETFs were launched... Source: Bloomberg This followed a huge net inflow day yesterday into BTC ETFs... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin was 3% lower back to $66k... Source: Bloomberg ...as ETH ETF $ Volume soared to $1BN... Source: Bloomberg ...which kept ETH around $3500 by the close... Source: Bloomberg Gold managed modest gains on the day, finding support at $2400... Source: Bloomberg Crude prices extended losses as CTAs pressed through technical levels but WTI found support at $76.69 intraday (its 200DMA) and bounced modestly... Source: Bloomberg Finally, prediction markets have Trump still dominating Harris for the win in November... Source: Bloomberg ...for now she remains below Biden's pre-debate levels. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 16:00
Public University Sued Over Alleged Use Of Student Fees To Support Leftists Political Groups
1721763900 from ZEROHEDGE
Public University Sued Over Alleged Use Of Student Fees To Support Leftists Political Groups Authored by Patrick McDonald via Campus Reform, A recent graduate of St. Cloud State University in Minnesota is suing the university administration, alleging that she was forced to pay a fee that went to a liberal student activist group. Tayah Lackie filed the lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota in May, with assistance from the Liberty Justice Center and the Upper Midwest Law Center. Lackie’s lawsuit contends that a mandatory fee going to a political agenda that she disagrees with violates the First Amendment because it compels speech. “A state school can’t make you pay a political group just to be enrolled,” Liberty Justice Center President Jacob Huebert said. “The Students United scheme violates students’ First Amendment rights, and we look forward to the courts saying so in our case.” The lawsuit alleges that all students at St. Cloud State must pay “union dues” to a group called Students United, which “advocates for and takes positions on controversial policies and legislation, and which purports to speak on all students’ behalf.” The lawsuit then proceeds to give examples of Students United making political statements and expressing potentially controversial political advocacy. “For example,” the lawsuit details, “Students United has aggressively advocated for the abolition of student debt—including through a website called ‘Fck Student Debt’ and a Twitter/X account, @FckStudentDebt.” “According to the website, Fck Student Debt is ‘a special project by Students United to eliminate all of the student loan debt created by higher education institutions in the state of Minnesota and to push federal legislators to cancel student loan debt,’” the lawsuit explains. On Students United’s website, the group states that its “vision” is to “create the model of inclusive higher education policies and leadership.” The group currently has a “Director of Student Leadership & Equity,” and each of the group’s officers have pronouns following their names on their bios. Yet, despite specific political arguments being made by Students United, the lawsuit states that “every” student in the Minnesota State Colleges and University system “is forced to associate with and subsidize Students United and its speech—even if the student disagrees with it.” The state of Minnesota filed a motion to dismiss Lackie’s complaint on July 15. Campus Reform has contacted St. Cloud State University, the Liberty Justice Center, and the Upper Midwest Law Center for comment. This article will be updated accordingly. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 15:45
Reuters 'Shock Poll' Finds Kamala Leading Trump, There's Just One Catch...
1721762700 from ZEROHEDGE
Reuters 'Shock Poll' Finds Kamala Leading Trump, There's Just One Catch... With the Democrat corporate media machine in full swing behind Kamala Harris following President Joe Biden's shock announcement on Sunday that he's abandoning his 2024 presidential campaign, it was only a matter of time before a 'shock' poll had her beating Trump in a hypothetical matchup. And here it is: A new Reuters/Ipsos poll has found that Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll (with a 3% margin of error). Yet, there's a catch. As we noted in the 2016 and 2020 elections, pollsters had their thumb on the scale by oversampling Democrats. Well, they've done it again - sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents. Meanwhile, other polls have Trump smoking Harris. The prediction markets (PredictIt) show Harris trailing Trump 43 to 58. We can't wait for PBS to come out with their latest... Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 15:25
Trump Asks Appeals Court To Overturn $454 Million Civil Fraud Judgment
1721761500 from ZEROHEDGE
Trump Asks Appeals Court To Overturn $454 Million Civil Fraud Judgment Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times, Lawyers for former President Donald Trump on July 22 asked a New York appeals court to overturn the $454 million New York civil fraud judgment that was handed down earlier this year. In court papers filed with First Department of the State Supreme Court’s Appellate Division, the state’s mid-level court, his lawyers wrote that Manhattan Judge Arthur Engoron’s Feb. 16 finding, that claimed former President Trump made false statements to insurers, banks, and other entities about his wealth, was incorrect. “Based on the ruling in this case, no company will want to come to New York to do business, and many businesses are fleeing,” his attorneys wrote. “The economic aspects of this decision are a disaster for New York.“ The New York Attorney General’s office ”has used the statute in a way never seen before,” they added. The lawyers said “there were no victims and no losses,” adding that the former president’s business partners “raved internally about their business with him and were eager for more.” In their appeal, they contended that the judge made an “erroneous” decision and, during the case, “struggled to understand basic banking concepts” before he handed down the fine. They further said that he erred in rejecting an earlier appeals court decision regarding the statute of limitations for the case, arguing that New York Attorney General Letitia James’ civil lawsuit should have been dismissed. The former president’s team also contended that after Justice Engoron’s decision, it gives the state attorney general’s office “limitless power to target anyone,“ including ”political opponents,” according to the 116-page filing. “If Appellants’ conduct constituted ‘fraud’ [...] then that word has no meaning, and [New York Attorney General’s] power to seize and destroy private businesses is boundless—and standardless,” the attorneys added. Before the trial, Justice Engoron rejected many of the Trump attorneys’ objections as the case proceeded, at one point equating them to the plot of the movie “Groundhog Day” and fining some of the lawyers $7,500 each for “repetitive, frivolous” argument. The Appellate Division previously denied former President Trump’s bid to end the case on statute of limitations and other grounds. After the judge handed down the judgment, former President Trump posted a $175 million bond in April to halt its collection and prevent interest from accruing. The move also blocked Ms. James from seizing some of his assets in New York City while he appeals the matter. The Epoch Times contacted the New York Attorney General’s office for comment Tuesday. In a statement to multiple news outlets, Ms. James’ office said that the appeal filed Monday repeats some arguments that were already rejected. “We won this case based on the facts and the law, and we are confident we will prevail on appeal,” a spokesperson said. Former President Trump, the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election in November, has maintained his innocence in the fraud case, saying he’s being unfairly targeted. Should former President Trump and his company, the Trump Organization, have to pay the entire judgment, it could imperil his cash reserves, although he might be able to recoup some of those losses due to his large stake in Trump Media, which owns his Truth Social platform. Earlier this year, he was ordered in a separate case to pay nearly $84 million in damages after a New York jury found that he defamed a writer, E. Jean Carroll. In May of this year, he was convicted by a Manhattan jury on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in relation to payments made during the 2016 campaign. Sentencing for that case is scheduled for September. The Manhattan case may be the only one of four cases against former President Trump that goes to trial before the November election. A federal judge in Florida last week dismissed federal charges involving his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House, arguing that the special counsel appointed in that case, Jack Smith, was improperly appointed by the Department of Justice. Mr. Smith has vowed to appeal the judgment. Two other election-related cases brought against him in Washington and Georgia have been stalled, and it’s not clear when either will go to trial, if ever. The former president had pleaded not guilty to all charges in the four cases. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 15:05
'Worst Since COVID Lockdowns' - Regional Fed Surveys Plunged In July
1721760300 from ZEROHEDGE
'Worst Since COVID Lockdowns' - Regional Fed Surveys Plunged In July It was ugly in macro-land today with existing home sales crashing (as home prices hit record highs). But a couple of Regional Fed surveys really laid an egg... First out of the gate was the Philly Fed Services Activity Survey, which puked in July from two-year highs to near four-year lows... Source: Bloomberg The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues turned negative. The full-time employment index suggested a decline in employment, and prices are rising once again... New orders fell to -7.1 vs 6.7 Sales fell to -3.5 vs 14.3 Prices paid rose to 30.2 vs 24.4 Full-time employment fell to -4.9 vs 14.6 Part-time employment fell to 4.0 vs 13.1 Of particular note was that the capital expenditures-equipment fell to 10.8 vs 24.5... not a great sign for the future of AI investment that is still supporting stocks. And it's not just Services, The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey crashed to -17 (the worst since the peak of the COVID lockdowns)... Source: Bloomberg And under the hood, it was even more of a shitshow... Shipments fell to -21 New order volume slowed to -23 Order backlogs rose to -20 Capacity utilization slowed to -13 Inventory levels of finished goods increased to 20 Overall, it's bad news as Bidenomics shits the bed... Source: Bloomberg We just cannot wait to hear what Harris has up her sleeve to 'fix' this... Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 14:45
Tesla Earnings Preview: Financials, Robotaxis, Cybertruck, Musk's Pay Plan In Focus
1721757900 from ZEROHEDGE
Tesla Earnings Preview: Financials, Robotaxis, Cybertruck, Musk's Pay Plan In Focus Tesla is set to report earnings after the bell today, with the street expecting a hefty EPS drop and 2% revenue decline. Sellside consensus expects Tesla's Q2 earnings per share to drop 33% to 61 cents, with sales dipping to $24.38 billion. Here are the expectations on other metrics: Gross profit margin (exp. 17.7%). Free cash flow (exp. 1.2bln). CapEx (exp. 2.5bln). Average selling price (exp. 42,736). Q3 2024 GUIDANCE: EPS exp. 0.55. Revenue exp. 25.4bln. FY24 GUIDANCE: EPS exp. 2.02. Revenue exp. 98.6bln. As we noted this morning, with valuations among technology firms still high after last week’s retreat, investors are looking for more evidence that their businesses are on track and the euphoria around artificial intelligence is justified. That said, unlike other Mag7 stocks, TSLA has largely missed the meltup in the past year, with the stock only enjoying a sharp move higher in recent weeks. Even with that though, Goldman calculates that TSLA's positioning score among hedge funds is only 3.5, meaning this name is extremely shorted and there is major risk of a continued squeeze (just as we correctly warned 2 months ago). Robotaxis In Focus Analysts and investors eagerly await details on Tesla's robotaxi reveal, initially set for August 8 but now delayed to October. Investors will also look for information on new affordable models, the Optimus humanoid robot, and spending on AI and autonomous driving. Tesla's 11-day winning streak earlier this month, that saw the stock rise about 50% from its YTD lows, abruptly ended on July 11 after a Bloomberg News report revealed that the EV maker plans to delay the unveiling event of the highly anticipated 'robotaxi' from August 8 to sometime in October. In early June, we told readers, "TSLA remains one of the most shorted names in the hedge fund space and is one of the biggest mutual fund underweights." Shares soared nearly 62% from June 10 to July 11 in a massive short squeeze. We penned this note: "Tesla's Furious Rally Is Another Massive Short Squeeze." But the tide could be changing unless the company unexpectedly beats expectations after the bell today. As a reminder, here is GLJ Research's take on the Robotaxi disappointment for Tesla earlier this month: A lot of investors trade around these TSLA days/events, many of which have turned out to be sizeable disappointments (i.e., Battery Day + Cybertruck Unveil + AI Day 1.0 + Optimus Day 1.0 + etc.); and now that "Robotaxi Day 8/8" its not happening as originally scheduled, the folks trading TSLA's stock into this event are likely now sellers (welcome to investing in 2024). Furthermore, given the run-up in TSLA's shares the past 11 days (the 74-day RSI is a whopping 74.6), the selling could be quite material. JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman penned a note after the JPMorgan European Automotive Conference in London last month explaining that robot taxis are "years" away. Deliveries And Cybertruck Yet Tesla surprised investors at the beginning of July with better-than-expected deliveries for the second quarter despite a global electric vehicle market downturn. It delivered 443,956 vehicles in the second quarter, better than the 439,302 average analyst estimate. The Austin-based carmaker delivered 422,405 of its top-selling Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in the second quarter, down from 446,915 a year ago. The company produced 410,831 vehicles during the quarter. While sales were down 4.8% from a year ago, Tesla improved on a sequential basis from the 386,810 vehicles delivered in the first three months of the year. New estimates from Fred Lambert, the editor-in-chief and main writer at Electrek, speculated that after parsing through the delivery report, "Tesla Cybertruck might have become the best-selling electric pickup truck in the US." Lambert's extended take on Cybertruck is that it will likely become (if not already) the best-selling EV truck in the world's largest economy: I predicted that despite the Cybertruck coming a long time after the F150 Lightning and Rivian R1T, it would likely achieve higher volume than those quickly after its launch for the simple fact that Tesla is second to none when it comes to ramping up EV programs. We can't confirm it because of the lack of transparency in Tesla's sale disclosure, but I think it's likely true that Cybertruck has become the best-selling electric pickup in the US right now. Regarding demand, a ZH reader contacted us last week. They said their Cybertruck delivery date was moved up from the estimated second half of 2025 to August. For some context, the reader paid $100 for the Cybertruck reservation in late 2022. Recall that reservations first opened in November 2019. Tesla and AI As far as Tesla and AI, in July Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas suggested that Tesla could be poised for the powering up America theme with its solar energy and storage business. This comes as artificial intelligence data centers are being constructed across the country, and once completed, demand a whole heck of a lot more power than traditional data centers, which means power grids must be upgraded to handle the new load capacity. "At first glance, the rapid growth in AI and its impact on electricity demand may not seem to have relevance to Tesla or the broader auto industry," Jonas wrote in a note to clients in late June. Titled "Tesla Energy Storage: Can GenAI Electrify This $130bn Business?" Jonas continued, "We recently published an analysis showing how US data center power usage may be equivalent to the power used by 150 million electric cars by 2030; the forecasted increase in US data center power from 2023 through 2027 is the electrical energy equivalent to adding 59 million EVs to US roads, or a 21% increase in total vehicles in service." Jonas seemed to embrace 'The Next AI Trade,' a theme we introduced to our pro subscribers in early April. We outlined how the AI revolution will drive a significant increase in electricity demand from AI data centers, reshoring trends, and other electrification trends, necessitating an upgrade of the nation's grid. Musk's Pay Package Investors will also be looking for any new updates on Tesla's move to Texas. Tesla investors voted for CEO Elon Musk’s compensation package and moving the company’s state of incorporation to Texas, signaling confidence in his leadership, in early June. Tesla is banking on the reapproval aiding in its effort to overturn Delaware Chancery Court Judge Kathaleen St. Jude McCormick’s ruling, which means a likely appeal to the state’s Supreme Court. Still, the outcome is uncertain, with Tesla stating in its proxy statement that it “cannot predict with certainty how a vote to ratify Musk’s compensation would be treated under Delaware law in these novel circumstances.” Tesla Stock: Most, If Not All Good News, Appears To Be Priced In As we said in our note earlier this month, with the stock price surging 50% in just a few days, one can make the argument that most if not all good news for the foreseeable future was promptly priced in. Meanwhile, there is a growing sense of uncertainty around how to treat the wider EV market, amid a sea of conflicting dynamics. The industry benefits from generous tax credits. Yet it’s also contending with significant hurdles in the form of tariff wars and even identity politics, with some consumers rejecting EVs as a form of “woke” transport. In the US, Donald Trump has said that if he becomes president again after November’s election, he’ll undo existing laws supporting battery-powered vehicles, calling them “crazy.” That said, Trump is a “huge fan” of Tesla’s Cybertruck, according to Elon Musk, who recently told staff to brace for major job cuts, with sales roles among those affected. And the Cybertruck, Tesla’s first new consumer model in years, has been slow to ramp up. For that reason, some hedge fund managers have decided the stock is off bounds altogether. Tesla is “very difficult for us to position,” said Fabio Pecce, chief investment officer at Ambienta where he oversees $700 million, including managing the Ambienta x Alpha hedge fund. Basically, it’s not clear whether investors are dealing with “a top company with a great management team” or whether it’s “a challenged franchise with deficient corporate governance,” he said. However, “if Trump wins, it is truly going to be very positive” for Tesla, though “obviously not amazing for EVs and renewables in general,” he said. That’s because Trump is expected to impose “massive tariffs towards the Chinese players,” which would be “beneficial” to Tesla, Pecce said; this is also wrong since there is virtually no Chinese EV penetration in the US, and if anything it would force even more dumping of Chinese EVs in Europe which is also a huge market for Tesla. And as usual, skeptics will also be looking into the company's accompanying 10-Q when it is released for potential updates on the company's numerous legal liabilities. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 14:05
Signs Of Severe Credit-Card And Auto-Loan Stress In Generation Z
1721756700 from ZEROHEDGE
Signs Of Severe Credit-Card And Auto-Loan Stress In Generation Z Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, The economy is slowing and that will hit the zoomers first and the hardest, especially renters... Shaky Ground The idea for this post comes from the Wall Street Journal article American Borrowers Are on Shakier Ground. Years of higher inflation and interest rates have left consumers mired in debt, even as overall economy hums. I dispute the Journal’s statement the “overall economy hums”. If the economy was humming we would not see charts like I am about to present. Unexpected Expenses That chart is from the Federal Reserve Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households The report was updated May 21, 2024 but it it only through 2023. Zoomers and younger Millennials are in trouble. Rot Starts at the Periphery The Wall Street Journal comments Big Banks and Customers Continue to Feel Pressure From Higher Rates JPMorgan’s second-quarter profit declined 9% year-over-year to $13.1 billion. That figure excludes one-time items, including a $7.9 billion gain on an exchange of the bank’s shares of Visa. Credit-card loans rose faster than spending at all three banks, a sign that more borrowers carried over balances month to month. “When you really dig into what’s happening across different consumers, the folks on the lower end of the wealth or income spectrum are struggling more,” Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said on a call with reporters. JPMorgan’s credit-card arm—the biggest in the country—said charge-offs on loans rose by nearly two-thirds from a year earlier. The rise in part reflected a normalization from years of historically low levels, Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum told reporter JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon repeated his view that interest rates could wind up staying higher than some economists have forecast. “Market valuations and credit spreads seem to reflect a rather benign economic outlook,” he said in prepared remarks. “But there are still multiple inflationary forces in front of us: large fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade and remilitarization of the world.” Auto Loans Plunging The above chart and the next few are from the New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report for 2024 Q1. Are auto loans a sign of a humming economy? I think not. Transition into Serious 90+ Auto New York Fed Quarterly Report Transition into Serious 90+ Credit Cards New York Fed Quarterly Report Maxed Out Borrowers If you have maxed out your credit card there is about a 33 percent chance you are delinquent. Who might that be? Maxed Out Credit Card Users The preceding two charts are from the New York Fed report Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed‑Out Borrowers Notably Gen Z has the highest delinquency transition rate, but Millennials were the only group whose delinquency exceeded their pre-pandemic rate. Let’s return to the first chart, repeated for convenience. Percentage of Consumers with Unpaid Bills by Homeownership Status Over 25 percent of those who rent have unpaid bills! Over 10 percent have not paid their water, gas, or electric bills. This isn’t humming. It’s the verge of disaster. And I have been talking about this setup all year. April 20: People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election May 31: Why Consumers Are Angry About the Economy in Five Pictures June 19: Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II July 5: The Unemployment Rate Bottomed a Year Ago, Who’s Impacted the Most? Generational Homeownership Rates Home ownership rates courtesy of Apartment List The Fed does not see this freight train coming even though it is standing in the middle or the track facing the oncoming train. This is despite nearly all of the charts in this post are from Fed reports. And most economists are as blind as the Fed. Unemployment Rate by Age Group Candidate Preference by Age Group An amazing 41 percent of those 18-34 are for Trump with only 30 percent for Biden. That’s an unprecedented 11 percentage point gap for Republicans. In 2020 this age group voted overwhelmingly for Biden. I discussed the above poll and also candidate preference by race in Post-Debate USA Today-Suffolk Poll Has Grim News for President Biden Please click on link for 11 charts. So who are the renters that will decide the election? Zoomers, millennials, and black renters. They are priced out of a home while watching rent go up at least 0.4 percent every month for 33 months. That string finally snapped in June with a 0.3 percent rise. Biden Seeks Rent Controls On July 17, I noted Biden Seeks Supreme Court Term Limits, Medical Debt Cancellation, Rent Controls Sorry Joe, it’s too late. You are gone and a recession has started, not that rent controls had a chance. They are a terrible idea anyway, but desperation set in. A recession coupled with a weakening economy for the next three months is hard to overcome, especially given Kamala’s political baggage. On July 8, I commented Weak Data Says a Recession Has Already Started, Let’s Now Discuss When Since then, more weak data hit the fan. I tie the economic picture together in Three Top Reasons Mortgage Delinquencies Are Rising Rot starts at the periphery then spreads to the core. Panic is coming. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 13:45
Blowout 2Y Auction Sees Record Foreign Buyers, Yields Slide
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Blowout 2Y Auction Sees Record Foreign Buyers, Yields Slide Ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, when consensus expects no surprises from Powell ahead of a September rate cut, the same can not be said for today's first of the week coupon auction, when demand for $69BN in 2Y notes (with 5Y and 7Y auctions on deck) was off the charts. Starting at the top, the high yield printed at 4.434%, down 27.2bps from 4.706% last month, the lowest since January, and stopped through the 4.457% When Issued by a whopping 2.3bps, the second highest stop through on record (only March 2023 was higher)! The Bid to Cover was 2.814, above last month's 2.751 and the highest since Aug 23 (and obviously above the six-auction average of 2.58). However, the internals were truly spectacular, with Indirects taking down an unprecedented 76.6%, up from 65.6% in June and the highest on record! And with Directs awarded 14.4%, the lowest since Jan 22, Dealers were left holding just 9.0% of the auction, the lowest on record. Bottom line: the market, and especially foreign official entities, are piling into the short end ahead of next week's FOMC decision in record amount, almost as if someone knows that contrary to expectations for no rate cut, Jerome Powell may actually surprise everyone next week. There were no surprises, however, in terms of the market reaction: yields tumbled after the stellar auction, with 10Y yields also tumbling to session lows. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 13:19
The Party Of 'Democracy" Will Now Choose Your Candidate For You
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The Party Of 'Democracy" Will Now Choose Your Candidate For You Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute, On Sunday, July 21, President Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential campaign via a text-only post on Twitter/X. Less than an hour later, Biden - also via a text-only post on Twitter/X - endorsed vice president Kamala Harris for the presidency. Thus, in just a few minutes, the ruling party in Washington completely erased the primary election process from one of the country’s major parties. That is, the same Democratic party that tells us it is the party of “democracy” just completely cut ordinary voters out of the selection process for the Democratic nominee. Instead, the Democratic nominee in 2024 will be chosen by a small group of elite party insiders. We’re told there will be an “open convention” in Chicago to choose the nominee, but all that means is that that there is no pre-determined nominee going into the convention. In any case, however, the nominee will be chosen by delegates and superdelegates (i.e., wealthy party elites like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama) behind closed doors. The Democratic party’s efforts to circumvent the primary process are quite remarkable for a ruling coalition that lectured the general public endlessly in 2020 about how Donald Trump was allegedly a “threat to democracy” and how “democracy is on the ballot.” Yet, this is what we’ve come to expect from political elites who use the term “democracy” as a propaganda term. For these people, the term has no objective meaning, it just means “something we like.” “Anti-democratic,” in contrast, just means “something we don’t like.” Moreover, its use as a propaganda term can be seen in the way that “democracy” is used in the same way as “revolutionary” by Marxist regimes. In such cases “revolutionary” is code for “in favor of the ruling elites” and “something we like.” Similarly, the opposite of “democracy” in a Marxist regime is “counterrevolutionary” or “bourgeois.” Those terms were essentially code for “against the ruling party” and “thing we don’t like.” Such terms have no actual content in the usual sense of a word. Thus, the term “democracy” simply means “good” and “not democratic” means “evil.” For example, President Joe Biden delivered two major speeches in 2022 on how “democracy” will supposedly be abolished if his opponents win. In November of that year, former president Barack Obama solemnly intoned that if Republicans win in Arizona, “democracy as we know it may not survive.” This is repeated among the party’s media allies. One writer at Salon chastised voters for daring to let their votes be influenced by economic concerns when “democracy is under threat.” One New York Times headline bemoaned the apparent reality that voters don’t seem interested in “saving democracy” when it’s supposedly all so clear that “democracy is in peril.” At no point in these jeremiads is it ever explained how a vote for the out-of-favor candidate will actually end elections or universal suffrage or any other event or institution associated with democracy. In Biden’s September 2022 speech in Philadelphia, he went on for twenty minutes about an imagined threat to democracy, without ever actually defining what democracy is. One was reminded of Fidel Castro howling in his multi-hour speeches about the threat to “the revolution” from insidious imperialists and counterrevolutionaries—by which he meant anyone who opposed his regime. The term “revolutionary” had no connection to actual revolution in this context. It simply meant “something my regime likes.” Meanwhile, the elites have gone to great lengths to ensure that no actual democracy—in the technical or traditional sense—has taken place in the nomination process. The Democratic Party made it clear that it would not allow any presidential hopefuls to challenge Biden to a debate. Early Democratic challengers Congressman Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson were told to get lost. The most significant challenger within the party, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., was effectively expelled from the party in October 2023. He was forced to declare his candidacy as an independent candidate soon after. So, after denying Democratic voters the chance to vote on Kennedy or anyone else, the party has now also denied the voters the chance to vote on Harris or whoever else the party elites will decide is the nominee in 2024. I don’t mention any of this to burnish the reputation of the Republican Party, by the way. Those of us who remember the Ron Paul campaigns in 2008 and 2012 remember how the GOP conspired to torpedo his campaign, going so far as to change the convention rules, ex post facto, to deny Paul a prime-time speaking position and to disenfranchise his delegates. Yet, it’s not the GOP that’s claiming to be the guardian of the vox populi while conspiring to undermine that vox at every turn. Rather, the alleged protectors of democracy carry on the tradition of redefining the term “democracy” to serve the interests of the elites whenever it suits their purposes. We see this not only in America, but globally. Any time the “wrong” people win an election—”wrong” according to global elites—the outcome of the election is declared a “threat to democracy.” We see this repeatedly in European politics where “democracy” is defined as support for the unelected European commission. German political elites, meanwhile, have repeatedly declared the rightwing AfD party a “threat to democracy” because party members keep winning elections. In Latin America, “democracy” means to support the social-democratic left. When rightwing Jair Bolsonaro was elected in Brazil, that was denounced as anti-democratic. When leftwing Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff was impeached by a democratically elected legislature, that was denounced as an anti-democratic coup. Democratically elected Javier Milei was denounced by uber-establishment magazine The Economist as “a danger for democracy.” It is now clear that to be in favor of democracy in 2024 is to support whatever the ruling party elites want you to support. To be “pro-democracy” now apparently means to vote for the candidate selected for you by party elites in secret meetings. According to the ruling elites, in a true “democracy,” there’s no voting allowed. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 13:05
'I Lost My Son': Musk Says He Was Tricked Into Approving Puberty Blockers
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'I Lost My Son': Musk Says He Was Tricked Into Approving Puberty Blockers Elon Musk has condemned so-called "gender-affirming care" practitioners for effectively "killing" his son -- by tricking the billionaire into authorizing puberty-blocking treatments out of fear the then-teenager would otherwise commit suicide. In remarks made Monday, Musk said the devastating experience fueled his commitment to "destroy the woke mind virus." Musk shared his candid thoughts about what happened to his son in a Monday conversation with psychologist and commentator Jordan Peterson, which was streamed live on X and the Daily Wire. "It happened to one of my older boys, where I was essentially tricked into signing documents for one of my older boys, Xavier. This is before I had any understanding of what was going on. COVID was going on, so there was a lot of confusion and I was told Xavier might commit suicide if he doesn't." The specter of suicide is frequently introduced by practitioners who recommend gender change therapies. When pressuring parents to go along, they often present a disturbing choice, typically phrased as "would you rather have a dead son or a living daughter?" Happier times: Musk with ex-wife Justine and twins Xavier (circled) and Griffin (via New York Post) The assumed link between gender dysphoria and suicide, however, has come under fire -- and not only from laypeople. "Gender dysphoria per se does not seem to predict neither all-cause nor suicide mortality in gender-referred adolescents," wrote the authors of a Finnish study published in January. "[The] main predictor of mortality in this population is psychiatric morbidity...Medical gender reassignment does not have an impact on suicide risk." "[The suicide threat] was a lie right from the outset," observed Peterson. Musk replied, "Incredibly evil, and I agree with you that the people that have been promoting this should go to prison," and added, "It wasn't explained to me that puberty blockers are actually just sterilization drugs." BREAKING: Elon Musk reveals that he vowed to destroy the woke mind virus after it killed his son. His son Xavier became transgender, he was talking about identity death, not physical death "My son Xavier is dead, k*lled by the woke mind virus." "I vowed to destroy the woke mind… pic.twitter.com/sxuaGZIyys — George (@BehizyTweets) July 22, 2024 Summing up the effect of the process on his life and his child, Musk invoked the term "deadnaming," which is used to describe referring to a transitioned person by their previous name: "I lost my son, essentially. They call it deadnaming for a reason. The reason it's called deadnaming is because your son is dead. My son Xavier is dead, killed by the woke mind virus." Born as Xavier, Musk's son now goes by Vivian Jenna Wilson. When petitioning for the name change, Vivian said it was sparked by “gender identity and the fact that I no longer live with or wish to be related to my biological father in any way, shape or form.” Last year, Musk characterized the split as even more saddening than when his first son died as an infant. I strongly supported Obama for President, but today’s Democratic Party has been hijacked by extremists — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 29, 2022 Musk told Peterson the experience inspired his resolve to obliterate woke ideology in general: "I vowed to destroy the woke mind virus after that." Putting his money where is mouth is, Musk has pledged $45 million to a Trump-backing super PAC that focuses on "get out the vote" efforts. Earlier this year, the UK's National Health Service barred private gender clinics from administering puberty-blockers to minors, declaring there is “not enough evidence to support the safety or clinical effectiveness.” The move was part of a broader trend in Europe to emphasize psychotherapy over hormones and surgeries. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 12:45
3 Supreme Court Justices Recuse 2nd Time In Case Accusing Them Of Wrongly Rejecting 2020 Election Lawsuit
1721751900 from ZEROHEDGE
3 Supreme Court Justices Recuse 2nd Time In Case Accusing Them Of Wrongly Rejecting 2020 Election Lawsuit Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The Supreme Court refused on July 22 to rehear a lawsuit that was filed against three justices because they rejected a previous lawsuit aimed at lawmakers who certified the 2020 election victory of President Joe Biden. The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on May 12, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times) In a rare move, all three justices - Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson - recused themselves from the case because they were named as co-respondents in it. The new ruling follows the court’s decision on May 28 to turn away the longshot legal bid by Raland J. Brunson of Ogden, Utah, who has gained notoriety among supporters of former President Donald Trump for his legal activism. Mr. Brunson has filed several lawsuits along with his brothers. He told The Epoch Times that he filed the latest lawsuit, which alleged the justices violated their oath of office, to draw attention to the importance of oaths of office. In the case at hand, Brunson v. Sotomayor, Mr. Brunson, sued Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson in their official capacities for voting on Feb. 21, 2023, to deny the petition for certiorari, or review, in his previous lawsuit known as Brunson v. Adams. In Brunson v. Adams, he sued hundreds of members of Congress in 2021, claiming that they violated their oath of office by not giving time for investigations of election fraud in the 2020 election and by certifying the election victory of then-challenger Joe Biden over then-incumbent President Trump in a process that concluded in the early morning of Jan. 7, 2021, following the U.S. Capitol breach. Rep. Alma Adams (D-N.C.) appeared in the short title of the petition filed in that appeal because she was named first in the list of 388 respondents. Also included as respondents were President Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and former Vice President Mike Pence. The lawsuit sought the removal from office of President Biden, Vice President Harris, and the members of Congress. In the unusual lawsuit, Mr. Brunson argued that avoiding an investigation of how President Biden won the election “is an act of treason and an act of levying war against the U.S. Constitution which violated Brunson’s unfettered right to vote in an honest and fair election and as such it wrongfully invalidated his vote.” In that appeal, the Supreme Court denied the petition for certiorari without comment in an unsigned order on Jan. 9, 2023. The court then denied a petition for rehearing on Feb. 21, 2023, also without comment in an unsigned order. Later, in February 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit rejected the case of Brunson v. Sotomayor. On May 28 of this year, all three Democrat-appointed justices being sued in the same case recused themselves as the Supreme Court denied that petition for certiorari. The Supreme Court justices cited judicial disqualification mandates in the U.S. Code and the Code of Conduct for Justices of the Supreme Court of the United States, which the nation’s highest court adopted in November 2023. Mr. Brunson argued in his petition for rehearing filed on June 12 in Brunson v. Sotomayor that by voting to deny the petition for certiorari, the justices violated their oath of office. The court has “a legal and binding duty under the law to grant” the petition, which “centers on their oath of office which cannot be ignored without it being a violation of their oath of office,” he argued. “If the Justices cannot be checked by their oath through Brunson’s petition or others like ... it, then our freedoms are subject to what they declare them to be instead of what they are,” the petition stated. The justices’ oath requires them to be impartial, to administer justice and “do equal right to the poor and to the rich,” and uphold the U.S. Constitution and the nation’s laws. The decision not to rehear Brunson v. Sotomayor came in an unsigned order on July 22. No justices dissented and the court did not explain its reasoning. Again, the three recusing justices cited judicial disqualification mandates related to them being parties in the legal proceeding. Mr. Brunson told The Epoch Times that the court’s decision not to rehear the case did not surprise him. “I mean, we’re going after their own immunity,” he said. For the Supreme Court to grant a petition, it has to qualify under the court’s criteria, he said. “It has to be something that’s going to affect the whole nation, or something that’s a contradiction to something they’ve already ruled on before,” he said. Mr. Brunson said he was “curious to see what they would do with it.” “It was worth a try, and educational, and there was a chance in a million that maybe something could happen. And I knew the odds were against me from the beginning, but ... I had nothing to lose on this,” he said, adding that he hoped the lawsuit created “awareness” about oaths of office. “And the philosophy that the Brunson brothers have is this: It doesn’t matter who the president is or our leaders are. As long as they keep their oath of office, we’ll do fine.” Mr. Brunson said more lawsuits are coming but he couldn’t discuss them because he is “still strategizing.” The Epoch Times reached out to the U.S. Department of Justice, which represented the three justices, for comment, but didn’t receive a reply by publication time. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 12:25
Blinken Dubiously Hails Harris As A 'Leading Voice' Of US Foreign Policy
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Blinken Dubiously Hails Harris As A 'Leading Voice' Of US Foreign Policy At a moment President Biden hasn't been seen by anyone - or even photographed - in about a week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday is seeking to assure the public that the president will remain "intensely focused" on work that remains in the next since months, chiefly foreign policy issues. Blinken cited Biden's work on "bringing peace to the Middle East and dealing with Russia's ongoing aggression" - though we can imagine the reality is that admin officials and a teams of staffers, and not Biden himself, will be handling these things. Via Flickr The other dubious statement from Blinken concerned Vice President Harris' supposed foreign policy credentials... "Blinken, speaking to reporters, said Vice President Kamala Harris has been a leading voice for U.S. foreign policy and diplomacy, adding that she was a very strong, effective and deeply respected voice for the United States around the world," as cited in Reuters. This begs the question: is she a "deeply respected voice" around the world? A clip of Harris previously weighing in on the Ukraine crisis from 2022 has resurfaced and is going viral. We should look no further than this... Me and the girlies talking geo politics 💅 pic.twitter.com/NGlimj47Fa — Lauren Southern (@Lauren_Southern) July 21, 2024 Is this something that Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping respects? Or are they laughing? Blinken on Tuesday continued to claim that somehow she's a foreign policy heavyweight. "I’ve seen her not only around the world, but I’ve seen her on the most critical foreign policy questions of our time, in the Situation Room at the White House, at the Oval Office with the president," he told a press briefing. And now the endorsements are rolling in from Democratic national security insiders, per The Washington Post: Some of the most senior foreign policy leaders in the Democratic Party endorsed Vice President Harris’s bid for president on Tuesday, declaring in an open letter that she has more international experience than most recent incoming presidents and expressing confidence that she is the “best qualified person” to lead the country. The more than 350 signatories to the letter, which was obtained by The Washington Post, add to voices within the Democratic Party seeking to cement Harris’s role as nominee following President Biden’s withdrawal from his reelection bid on Sunday. They include former national security advisers Susan Rice and Thomas E. Donilon; former secretaries of state John F. Kerry and Hillary Clinton; former secretaries of defense Chuck Hagel and Leon Panetta; and former top intelligence officials Michael Hayden and James Clapper. Let the Democratic deep state's crowning begin. But Trump actually previously summed up her experience and 'statesmanship' more accurately in the following clip: 🇺🇸 Trump talks Kamala Harris with Tucker: “She speaks in rhyme. It’s weird, the whole thing is weird” “The bus will go here and then the bus will go there because that’s what buses do” 🤣🔥 pic.twitter.com/BnKo6PuLVH — Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) July 3, 2024 But we are being told she is going to "stand up to dictators" and command respect around the world. Perhaps more accurately she would serve as a useful puppet for the Washington foreign policy blob, in continuation of the same ole interventionist and neocon policies which have marked the past couple decades, much like Biden. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 12:05
Department Of Defense To Give Troops 'Economic Hardship' Bonus Of $20 Per Month
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Department Of Defense To Give Troops 'Economic Hardship' Bonus Of $20 Per Month Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness, The Biden Administration’s Department of Defense (DOD) has announced that it will begin handing out “economic hardship bonuses” to members of the military, amounting to a mere $20 every month. As reported by the Daily Caller, the $20 bonus will be given to troops between the ranks of E1 and E3. An anonymous defense official confirmed the bonus on Friday, speaking to Military.com. “The monthly bonus amounts, on average, will total approximately $120 [over the six months] … and they’re based on the funding Congress has made available,” said the official. The bonuses will be provided as a result of funds appropriated by the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which Congress passed last year. The Pentagon calculated that it could provide such payments to around 266,000 members before the funds ran out. As such, the E6 rank will not receive the bonus. Although the funds were first authorized in December, they were not appropriated for the DOD until March. “While it’s welcome news that the department will provide some junior enlisted service members with temporary bonus pay, as authorized by [last year’s] NDAA, more must be done,” said Justine Tripathi, a spokeswoman for the House Armed Services Committee. “[This is] why the [2025] NDAA NDAA provides junior enlisted service members with a 19.5% pay raise.” Concerns have arisen regarding troops’ pay and whether or not it is enough to sustain a family. A study was published in April by the Armed Services Committee, which found that “servicemembers, especially junior enlisted servicemembers and servicemembers supporting large families, struggle to afford housing and feed their families.” The study also determined that troops within that rank range had received either minimal pay raises or no raises at all in eight of the last 40 years. A similar study released in June by the Military Family Advisory Network revealed that over half of all military families, active service members, and veterans were in a poor financial state. In the same study, just 57% of respondents said that they would recommend joining the military, compared to 74% who said they would do so in 2019. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 11:45
DOJ Magically Finds 117 Pages Of Biden Transcripts
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DOJ Magically Finds 117 Pages Of Biden Transcripts The Department of Justice admitted to a federal judge on Monday that it has located 117 pages of transcripts it previously denied having, related to President Joe Biden's interviews with a biographer which played a role in the recently completed criminal investigation of his handling of classified material before he became president. Photo: Brendan Smialowski, Getty The investigation from special counsel Robert Hur found concluded that while Biden likely mishandled classified info, no reasonable prosecutor would bring charges against him for coming off as "a well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory." What followed was a flood of Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests from news organizations and conservative groups seeking information - including audio recordings of Biden's interviews with Hur - which the DOJ refuses to release over fears that they could be used to create 'deepfakes' of the president. The groups, meanwhile, maintain that the DOJ is covering up Biden's severe cognitive decline. It’s unclear whether his exit from the race will affect the handling of Hur’s materials by the Justice Department, which has argued that the release of audio of Biden’s interviews with Hur would violate the president’s privacy, lead to potential abuse — such as deepfakes — and deter other witnesses from agreeing to recorded interviews. Biden asserted executive privilege over the audio recordings of his interviews in a bid to head off House Republicans’ effort to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress for refusing to release the recordings. -Politico At one hearing last month, the DOJ told US District Judge Dabney Friedrich that it would be 'highly time-consuming' to process other audio files containing Biden's interviews with biographer Mark Zwonitzer, which apparently consist of some 70 hours of recordings that the DOJ says is far more difficult to review and process than written material. "We don’t have some transcript that’s been created by the special counsel that we can attest to its accuracy," said DOJ attorney Cameron Silverberg in a June 18 hearing in front of Friedrich, in a suit brought by the Heritage Foundation, Politico reports. On Monday, however, Silverberg admitted in the Monday filing that the department had "in the past few days" confirmed that Hur's office had created transcripts of Biden's discussions with Zwonitzer for memoirs published in 2007 and 2017. Hur's team determined that some of those conversations contained classified information, however the DOJ barred prosecutors from pursuing charges against a sitting president. "In the past few days…the Department located six electronic files, consisting of a total of 117 pages, that appeared to be verbatim transcripts of a small subset of the Biden-Zwonitzer audio recordings created for the SCO by a court-reporting service," reads the new filing. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 11:25
San Francisco Invokes Supreme Court's Bureaucracy-Weakening Ruling In Lawsuit Against EPA
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San Francisco Invokes Supreme Court's Bureaucracy-Weakening Ruling In Lawsuit Against EPA Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times, San Francisco will invoke the Supreme Court’s landmark ruling from last month that weakened federal regulators’ power in its upcoming case challenging federal wastewater discharge regulations, according to a brief that the city filed with the high court on July 19. The city is arguing that Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials misinterpreted a provision of the federal Clean Water Act of 1972 when they issued a discharge permit. In issuing the permit, the officials deviated from the framework of the statute so much that they revived the old regulatory approach that the law had replaced, according to the city. The city argues that the Supreme Court’s June 28 decision in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, which invalidated the 40-year-old bureaucracy-empowering Chevron deference doctrine, has a bearing on the case. Critics say the now-defunct doctrine, which required judges to defer to the legal interpretations of unelected federal agency officials when enforcing federal laws that they deemed ambiguous, led to the explosive growth of the federal government in recent decades. The Loper Bright ruling is expected to be widely cited in lawsuits challenging federal regulations. It’s also expected to make it more difficult for government officials to generate new regulations. The issue in the case, known as City and County of San Francisco v. EPA, is whether the agency is allowed to impose vague limitations on how much pollution may be present in wastewater discharged by water utilities. The Supreme Court granted the city’s petition without comment on May 28. Oral arguments in the case haven’t yet been scheduled but are expected to take place at some point during the court’s new term, which begins in October. In its petition filed on Jan. 8, San Francisco stated that the discharge permits issued by the EPA order tells cities not to pollute water bodies “too much,” but don’t provide a specific limitation. According to the city, its most recent permit is one of many issued across the country that failed to notify the permit holders about what they must do to comply with the Clean Water Act. The city’s permit states that San Francisco may not cause or contribute to “exceedances” of water quality standards. Instead of simply advising the city “how much it needs to control its discharges to comply with the Act,” the EPA’s “generic prohibitions leave the City vulnerable to enforcement based on whether the Pacific Ocean meets state-adopted water quality standards,” the petition states. In July 2023, a divided U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit rejected San Francisco’s appeal and affirmed the EPA’s power to specify generic limits or “general narrative prohibitions” on discharges under the Clean Water Act. In an April 12 brief, U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar had urged the Supreme Court not to accept the case. The permit issued to the city is sufficiently specific, she wrote. For example, it states that the discharged water cannot adversely affect the pH of the water into which it is released and that “floating particulates and grease and oil shall not be visible,” Ms. Prelogar wrote. In the city’s new brief, filed on July 19, which helps to lay the foundation for its upcoming oral arguments, San Francisco argues that EPA officials misinterpreted the Clean Water Act and in the process “effectively resurrect[ed]” the old regulatory regime that the statute had replaced. When the EPA renewed the city’s permit “to discharge treated effluent into the Pacific Ocean ... EPA imposed conditions that require the City to avoid any discharge that causes or contributes to a violation of water quality standards.” Effluent is liquid waste or sewage discharged into a body of water. The Ninth Circuit erred in upholding the permit conditions which “impermissibly measure the City’s compliance based on whether the receiving waters meet water quality standards, instead of whether the City’s discharges meet effluent limitations,” according to the brief. The agency’s interpretation of the Clean Water Act makes it difficult to comply because “a waterbody’s ability to meet water quality standards at any time depends on pollutants that all sources—not just San Francisco—contribute.” This means that the city doesn’t have the advanced notice it needs to “control its discharges to comply with the Generic Prohibitions,” the brief states. On June 4, the Supreme Court directed the EPA to file its brief on the merits by Aug. 26. The U.S. Department of Justice, which is representing the EPA, didn’t respond by publication time to a request by The Epoch Times for comment. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 11:05
"Increasingly Cautious Consumer": Polaris Shares Crash As High Interest Rates Crush Demand For ATVs & Jetskis
1721745900 from ZEROHEDGE
"Increasingly Cautious Consumer": Polaris Shares Crash As High Interest Rates Crush Demand For ATVs & Jetskis A toxic trifecta of high interest rates, elevated inflation, and increasingly cautious dealers and consumers led Polaris to report dismal second-quarter results. The earnings miss and reduced full-year forecast for sales and profit indicate the once-thriving outdoor adventure market for ATVs, UTVs, jet skis, and snowmobiles is now in a deep freeze. Polaris reported $1.96 billion in sales for the second quarter, missing the Bloomberg estimate of $2.17 billion. Sales for off-road, on-road, and marine all missed estimates, indicating that consumers are dialing back purchases of outdoor vehicles because of high interest rates. Here's a snapshot of second-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): Sales $1.96 billion, -12% y/y, estimate $2.17 billion (Bloomberg Consensus) Off Road sales $1.53 billion, -6% y/y, estimate $1.64 billion On Road sales $293.3 million, -19% y/y, estimate $334.8 million Marine sales $134.1 million, -40% y/y, estimate $203.9 million Gross profit margin 21.6% vs. 22.8% y/y, estimate 23.1% Cash and cash equivalents $322.7 million, -5.2% y/y, estimate $267.7 million Adjusted EPS from continuing operations $1.38, estimate $2.23 "The second quarter proved challenging as our industry continued to contend with elevated interest rates, inflation, and an increasingly cautious dealer and consumer," Chief Executive Mike Speetzen wrote in a statement. Polaris now expects full-year sales to decline 17% to 20%, compared with previous guidance of down 5% to 7%. It expects adjusted EPS to slide 56% to 62%, compared with prior guidance of down 10% to 15%. Polaris now forecast full-year sales to decline by 17% to 20%, a significant drop from the previous guidance of a 5% to 7% decrease. The company also expects adjusted EPS to plummet by 56% to 62%, compared to the prior forecast of a 10% to 15% decline. Speetzen said, "We have lowered our full-year guidance to reflect the decision to cut shipments and our expectations that current industry challenges remain in place for the remainder of the year." In premarket trading, shares are down 14%, the largest intraday decline since early Coivd when government-enforced shutdowns closed the economy. Also, watch MasterCraft Boat, MarineMax, Camping World, Brunswick, and Malibu Boats. Polaris is a proxy of consumer health. Certainly, high interest rates and elevated inflation have crimped demand for ATVs, UTVs, and jet skis. The broad theme here is that a consumer slowdown continues to worsen. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 10:45
Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle Resigns
1721745112 from ZEROHEDGE
Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle Resigns US Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle has resigned, one day after a contentious session with House lawmakers over security failures that facilitated the assassination attempt on Donald Trump on July 13, both NBC and ABC News report. BREAKING: @JuliaEAinsley reports Two law enforcement sources tell NBC News Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle has resigned. And an official announcement is coming later this morning — Ryan Nobles (@ryanobles) July 23, 2024 Her resignation comes after a bipartisan grilling on Monday, with numerous Republicans and at least one Democrat lawmaker demanding she resign, as her agency fell short of its "zero-fail mission." Kimberly Cheatle testifies that the roof 150 yards from the podium was “outside of the perimeter": pic.twitter.com/cpJQ5Oufhz — Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 22, 2024 Cheatle's testimony came after a Sunday night announcement from Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas that the DOJ was forming an independent review panel charged with examining the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Of course, Mayorkas and Biden are 'grateful' to Cheatle for her 'decades of public service,' which was great aside from that whole almost getting Trump killed thing. In one notably heated exchange on Monday, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) told Cheatle that she was 'full of shit today,' after Cheatle continued to give vague, or no, answers to pointed questions. .@NancyMace did NOT come to play today! “You’re full of SHIT today!” THIS IS HOW YOU HANDLE THESE PEOPLE! pic.twitter.com/b2K9SlGNAt — Joey Mannarino (@JoeyMannarinoUS) July 22, 2024 We also learned yesterday that the Secret Service has no recordings of radio communications from the 13th. At the end of January 2021, USSS deleted texts of 2 dozen agents/officials related to Jan 6. They’ve never been recovered. L — Julie Kelly 🇺🇸 (@julie_kelly2) July 22, 2024 She also admitted to using encrypted apps on her personal phone to conduct official business. Bloody Hell Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle just said that she uses encrypted apps on her personal cell phone to speak to colleagues in the federal government and overseas Rep. Eric Burlinson is stunned, and states this might be a federal crime Cheatle hurriedly then… pic.twitter.com/qZHT3z2So5 — Connor Tomlinson (@Con_Tomlinson) July 22, 2024 During one exchange with California Democrat Ro Khana, Cheatle didn't realize that a former Secret Service Director in charge during the Reagan assassination attempt stepped down. Omg Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle just got embarrassed by California Dem Ro Khanna for not knowing the history of the agency she runs "You know what Stuart Knight did after [Regan's assassination attempt]?" "He remained on duty." "He resigned. He resigned." pic.twitter.com/8RZ9iTYPeK — johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) July 22, 2024 The unusual Sunday night announcement from Mayorkas came about 12 hours before Cheatle's 10 am Monday appearance before the House Oversight Committee, which Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has touted as "must-watch TV," telling CNN, "She's got a lot to answer for. And those concerns are bipartisan." Underscoring that notion, Oversight Committee member and Democratic Pennsylvania Rep. Brendan Boyle has already demanded that Cheatle resign, via a statement released Saturday. That panel has been given 45 days to perform its review. While new experts may be added shortly, it initially has four members: Obama Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano Fran Townsend, a homeland security advisor to President George W. Bush Mark Filip, who was deputy attorney general to George W. Bush David Mitchell, former Secretary of the Department of Public Safety and Homeland Security for the State of Delaware Damning information about the Secret Service's handling of Trump's rally in Butler, Pennsylvania continues to emerge. On Saturday, the agency was caught in a lie: Having repeatedly denied that Trump's campaign was denied additional security resources it had requested, the agency was exposed as having done just that, via a report from the Washington Post. On Friday, the world learned that would-be assassin Thomas Crooks was able to fly a drone over the event site just a few hours before he opened fire. The Secret Service typically bans drone flights at secured sites; but it's unclear if such a prohibition was at least nominally imposed at the rally. Crooks was identified as a suspicious individual more than an hour before he opened fire from a rooftop only about 450 feet from Trump's podium. At the time, he'd already been observed in possession of a range finder and carrying a duffel bag. Later, he was spotted on a rooftop 20 minutes before all hell broke loose. As it did, female agents assigned to the DEI-focused protective detail appeared to falter under fire -- even struggling with holstering a weapon. In the aftermath of the shooting, Cheatle's credibility took a sharp downturn when, asked why no Secret Service agent was posted atop ideal sniper roost used by the shooter, she told ABC: "That building in particular has a sloped roof at its highest point. And so, you know, there’s a safety factor that would be considered there that we wouldn’t want to put somebody up on a sloped roof." SS sloped roof division. 🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/dHgFCVrlFz — 🇺🇸𝓒𝓱𝓪𝓭🇺🇸𝓗𝓪𝓻𝓻𝓲𝓼𝓸𝓷🇺🇸 (@Texas_jeep__guy) July 20, 2024 Aaaaand, she's gone. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 10:31
What Can Be, Unburdened By What Has-Beens?
1721744400 from ZEROHEDGE
What Can Be, Unburdened By What Has-Beens? By Michael Every of Rabobank Global IT systems crashed on Friday. Two days later, a week after the attempted assassination of former President Trump, President Biden crashed. It seems full steam ahead for Kamala Harris, so far. Elsewhere, Israel destroyed the Houthis’ port and oil storage, yet Russia may now arm them, all risking wider Mid-East war; as ‘China and Russia are breaking the world into pieces’, says Hal Brands, as “Global governance and problem-solving increasingly look like artifacts of a happier age. International violence is intensifying, as the risk of major war --even global war-- ticks higher. US power still looms large, but America’s behaviour grows more erratic as its politics become less stable.” Indeed, 80 years ago last weekend, at Bretton Woods, the world set up a (gold) US dollar-centric economic architecture, which we all live with today (absent gold). Now, concerns are it will face a blue screen of death: and neither IT systems, nor US politics, geopolitics, nor the global economy can be easily re-set by turning them off then back on again. Indeed, *what* a mess the West is in. Inflation is lower – but still too high in key areas. Real GDP per capita has flat-lined or fallen for years–and median GDP is worse. Housing is ever less affordable in many places - but making it cheaper slows ‘growth’. Ageing populations mean poorer health, at huge cost, and labor and skills shortages - yet there is less appetite for mass immigration. Debt is too high everywhere even as we pay more tax. We are deindustrialising. Energy costs are too high - yet we need to make a green transition that will cost trillions. Defense spending must soar - but there’s no money, no supply chains, nor young people to fight for their country. China dominates global production - everyone else wants to reclaim it. War rages on several fronts - everyone fears more. Far right and far left voices are loud as polarisation increases. Europe is unable to move forwards; and conspiracy theories are clotting round the assassination attempt on one 78-year old US presidential candidate, and what some see as a possible ‘palace coup’ against the 81-year old other, who is still the leader of the free world. As historian Niall Ferguson just put it, “We’re all Soviets now.” I made the same point years ago, arguing neoliberal ideology guaranteed economic failure, then socio-political and geopolitical chaos; yet we remained wedded to it because we refused to embrace the political-economy changes required, the same way the late Soviet bloc knew it was failing, but just built new statues of Marx or Lenin and hoped something would turn up. Until Gorbachev did. Today, it’s the West which needs reform and openness about what that pain will have to mean. As Brands puts it: “The battle of ideas is on again. Russia and China didn’t get the memo about the irresistible triumph of democracy. They are rewiring international norms and organizations to make autocracies more secure. They believe their illiberal systems can produce greater discipline, effort and strength than decadent democracies.” On that side, Bloomberg notes, ‘Xi Cements Role as ‘Chief Economist’, Shrinking Space for Debate’, underlining that Beijing sees the pro-market actions of the past as responsible for many of China’s current weaknesses. Elsewhere, @henrysgao argues the CCP’s 3rd Plenum language on “the dominant position of public ownership” suggests a mixed-ownership economy ahead - meaning private capital following state goals. The Plenum certainly recognized affordable housing, state built and owned, as needed; and it clearly has no issue with deflation if it means lower prices – and more Chinese exports to the world. The irrelevant 10bp PBOC rate cut this week will help CNY weaken, so exports grow, but won’t boost domestic demand. On the other side, what can the West now be starting from here? Is it already a has-been? In answering, it’s important to know we’ve been here before. There is the now-common Cold War analogy, for one. Yet there is also the comparison with the problematic period after the official Bretton Woods system collapsed in the early 70s, Middle East and South-East Asia wars raged, then inflation was unleashed. In 1978, ex-Soviet dissident Solzhenitsyn, noted in ‘A World Split Apart’: “The anguish of a divided world gave birth to the theory of convergence between the leading Western countries and the Soviet Union. It is a soothing theory which overlooks the fact that these worlds are not at all evolving toward each other and that neither one can be transformed into the other without violence… The Western world has lost its civic courage, both as a whole and separately, in each country, in each government, in each political party, and, of course, in the UN. Such a decline in courage is particularly noticeable among the ruling and intellectual elites… It has become possible to raise young people.., preparing them for and summoning them toward physical bloom, happiness, the possession of material goods, money, and leisure, toward an almost unlimited freedom in the choice of pleasures. So, who should now renounce all this, why and for the sake of what should one risk one’s precious life in defence of the common good and particularly in the nebulous case when the security of one’s nation must be defended in an as-yet distant land? …a society without any objective legal scale is a terrible one indeed. But a society with no other scale but the legal one is also less than worthy of man… And it will be simply impossible to bear up to the trials of this threatening century with nothing but the supports of a legalistic structure. Today’s Western society has revealed the inequality between the freedom for good deeds and the freedom for evil deeds. A statesman who wants to achieve something important and highly constructive for his country has to move cautiously and even timidly… Thus mediocrity triumphs under the guise of democratic restraints… Society has turned out to have scarce defence against the abyss of human decadence… The culprit can go unpunished or obtain undeserved leniency - all with the support of thousands of defenders in the society. When a government earnestly undertakes to root out terrorism, public opinion immediately accuses it of violating the terrorists’ civil rights. The press, too, of course, enjoys the widest freedom… Because instant and credible information is required, it becomes necessary to resort to guesswork, rumours, and suppositions to fill in the voids, and none of them will ever be refuted; they settle into the readers’ memory. Without any censorship in the West, fashionable trends of thought and ideas are fastidiously separated from those that are not fashionable, and the latter, without ever being forbidden, have little chance of finding their way into periodicals or books or being heard in colleges... It is almost universally recognized that the West shows all the world the way to successful economic development, even though in past years it has been sharply offset by chaotic inflation. However, many people living in the West are dissatisfied with their own society. They despise it or accuse it of no longer being up to the level of maturity attained by mankind... Some people sincerely wanted all wars to stop just as soon as possible… But if the full might of America suffered a full-fledged defeat at the hands of a small Communist half-country, how can the West hope to stand firm in the future? …In the 20th century Western democracy has not won any major war by itself; each time it shielded itself with an ally possessing a powerful land army, whose philosophy it did not question…One must be blind in order not to see that the oceans no longer belong to the West, while the land under its domination keeps shrinking… The West kept advancing steadily in accordance with its proclaimed social intentions, hand in hand with a dazzling progress in technology. And, all of a sudden, it found itself in its present state of weakness.” I won’t apologize for the lengthy quotes because they are such an eerily familiar litany of woes. Yet within just a few years the US had leaped, and borrowed its way, into the dayglo, ‘Top Gun’ 1980s – and by the end of that decade, decisively won the Cold War. The problem is that there can’t be any easy repeat of that formula now. More freedom isn’t the solution. Lower taxes, alone, aren’t the solution. More state spending, alone, isn’t the solution. Lower rates, alone, aren’t any solution. The old playbook simply won’t work vs. a ‘USSR’ that makes everything that the West consumes. Such ideas are all has-beens. So are many of the easy alternatives, i.e., higher taxes, less state spending, and higher rates – alone. As a result, things will have to change. Indeed, in ‘Trump and Gorbachev’, inequality expert Branko Milanovic draws a structuralist comparison between the Soviet leader who ended up destroying the USSR and Warsaw Pact, and billionaire Trump. Gorbachev sat at the head of a Soviet hierarchy where nobody could resist him when he started to dismantle the pillars that held up communism. He parallels that with the post-1945 architecture --WTO, IMF, NATO, EU, etc.-- which Trump will undermine to cement US power. (However, there is clearly lots of opposition to Trump fighting tooth, nail, and bullet, albeit often then following his policy lead on China and trade.) His conclusion is that even if the Western elite are as at a loss as those of the East were 30+ years ago (and they themselves were before 40+ years ago), Western democracies, unlike Soviet one-party states, are flexible enough to pivot when needed. Reassuringly, Milankovic adds, “Trump will not, I think, destroy some essential structures of the Western system as it was built after WW2, but he might, with his rough, chaotic and unpredictable government, scare the ruling elites in the West, encourage “revisionists”, and bring about changes that will alter the world as it was created in Yalta and Potsdam. Trump is unlikely to create a new structure, but he can break parts of the old one. If he does that, he might usher in a post-Cold War era, and close the book on 1945. But note that the Cold War had one good feature: it was “Cold”.” I have also referred to Potsdam and Yalta in the past few weeks, which underlines how extremely large the policy pivots we may yet see are. Indeed, the key questions are this: Is it to be one world economy or blocs? Which blocs, if so? Can we choose which we are in? Trading with others how? Will the US dollar be globally dominant? Will US Treasuries be globally dominant? This is not necessarily the same as the dollar! What energy policy will be used? Only then do we get to monetary and fiscal (and industrial, trade, housing, transport, labour, and defence) policies each bloc will use – but they will have to work in sympathy with the above, not in the opposite direction. In short, potential ‘Trump’ or ‘Harris’ trades should start with the questions above and work their way down to imagine what can be, unburdened by *what* has-beens. For those who want a deeper overview of this theme, and what it means, see what I wrote in ‘The Great Game of Global Trade’ in January 2017, which is still relevant in July 2024. (Though critics would then add. ‘You mean you got the timing wrong!’) Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 10:20
US Existing Home Sales Puked (Again) In July...
1721743876 from ZEROHEDGE
US Existing Home Sales Puked (Again) In July... US existing home sales slumped for the fourth straight month in June, plunging a worse than expected 5.4% MoM (the worst MoM drop since Nov 2022) and dragging sales down 5.4% YoY... Source: Bloomberg Notably, existing home sales have not risen on a YoY basis since July 2021, with the SAAR total back below 4mm, near COVID lockdown lows... Source: Bloomberg The only segment of the market that saw sales rise the $1 million-plus cohort - which saw sales rise 3.6% YoY... Source: Bloomberg Meanwhile, the median home price rose 4.1% from last year to $426,900... Source: Bloomberg That's a new record high median price for existing homes in the US... and once again above the median price for a new home... Source: Bloomberg ...so much for the hopes of a rate cut? Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 10:11
Watch: Kamala Harris Talks To Biden As If He's Dying
1721742600 from ZEROHEDGE
Watch: Kamala Harris Talks To Biden As If He's Dying Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, While speculation of Joe Biden’s condition and whereabouts continues to mount, things were not made any clearer as Biden phoned in to a press gathering at the now Harris HQ, leading to several minutes of absolute cringe exchange between the pair. An odd sounding Biden addressed the staffers who had no idea he was dropping out until they saw it on X Sunday at the same time as everyone else. Biden has phoned in to a Kamala Harris event to address his staffers who had no idea he was dropping out. Rumours of his demise continue to circulate. https://t.co/oVzZLnQJDB pic.twitter.com/MCZ72RPiOv — m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) July 22, 2024 Then came the heavy duty cringe. Harris addressed Biden as if it was the last thing he’d ever hear. "JOE, ARE YOU WATCHING? DO YOU HEAR THIS CLAPPING? CAN YOU SEE IT? HA HA HA HA!" pic.twitter.com/E6ySqXlhK5 — m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) July 22, 2024 Is this the best candidate for the job of president? Why does Kamala Harris seem so astounded that Biden is "still there"? pic.twitter.com/wdg8kV7S4y — m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) July 22, 2024 She made sure to let everyone know that Biden has endorsed her as his frail mumblings were piped over loud speakers. This is just getting too weird now. Voice of Biden piped in from somewhere beyond the rainbow...Everyone gonna be saying it's totally fake in 3, 2, 1... pic.twitter.com/9cVGuw11UP — m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) July 22, 2024 Many just simply don’t believe Biden was really on the phone, and Harris almost saying it was a recording only made it worse. Interesting slip of the tongue: "JOE, I KNOW YOU'RE STILL ON THE REC... CALL!" pic.twitter.com/ghoCRjGImR — m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) July 22, 2024 Imagine four years of her laughing at every sentence anyone says. What a total embarrassment. * * * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 09:50
Netanyahu To Have Separate Meetings With Biden, Harris, & Likely Trump Too
1721741400 from ZEROHEDGE
Netanyahu To Have Separate Meetings With Biden, Harris, & Likely Trump Too It has been about a week since President Joe Biden has been seen in public or on camera, and six days since his Covid-19 diagnosis. His meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who just arrived in Washington, was initially scheduled for Tuesday, but that has been pushed back till Thursday, Fox reports, while also noting that "Israeli officials were confused if the two leaders would meet at all." As of Monday afternoon the president was at Rehoboth Beach, Delaware - said to be recovering and in isolation. Amid rumors and speculation about his health, there's another obvious question: when will the US President and Commander-in-Chief actually be seen? It appears Netanyahu is set to be the first foreign official to literally lay eyes on Biden, and up close, since the Democratic president announced he is withdrawing from running for a second term Sunday. The prime minister's Wing of Zion plane landed in D.C. on Monday, via Times of Israel. Netanyahu's controversial address in front of Congress is set for Wednesday, to be boycotted by many Democrats, and while Vice President Kamala Harris will not preside over the address (as is normally customary for a VP) and intends to skip the speech, she is planning a private meeting with the Israeli leader. "Harris was scheduled to attend an event for the Zeta Phi Beta sorority in Indianapolis before the Israeli prime minister’s address date was set," reports Politico. "The conflict allows Harris to circumvent the question of whether to attend the address, a political challenge for many Democrats who oppose the way Israel is conducting the war in Gaza." Netanyahu had said before departing from Tel Aviv, "regardless [of] who the American people choose as their next president." Interestingly, his flight had to avoid a stopover in Europe due to the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant hanging over his head, to avoid any awkward situations with European allies who also happen to be signatories of the Rome Statute. Netanyahu while in the United States is also seeking a sit-down with former president and current Republican nominee Donald Trump, or at least a phone call. It's as yet unclear if Trump has agreed to such a meeting, but it is likely. The scheduling and logistics have remained a little up in the air due to the White House's dramatic shuffling of Biden's schedule. Netanyahu was among the first world leaders to register shock and solidarity in the wake of the assassination attempt on Trump... Like all Israelis, my wife Sara and I were shocked by the horrific assassination attempt on the life of President Donald Trump. This wasn't just an attack on Donald Trump. This was an attack on a candidate for the presidency of the United States. This was an attack on America.… pic.twitter.com/AzeiL78uNU — Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) July 14, 2024 So in all, Netanyahu in addition to addressing Congress might end up in separate meetings with all three of the following: Biden, Harris, and Trump. But in Bibi's mind, it's likely that only one meeting will be the one that matters for the future. Also, it's being widely reported that the Israeli PM plans to delay cementing any level of a Gaza truce deal with Hamas until after the November US election. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 09:30
Ukraine Might Actually Be Semi-Serious About Resuming Peace Talks With Russia
1721740200 from ZEROHEDGE
Ukraine Might Actually Be Semi-Serious About Resuming Peace Talks With Russia Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack, The conventional thinking is that Ukraine isn’t interested in resuming peace talks with Russia unless the latter capitulates to its unacceptable ultimatums, otherwise it’ll continue fighting “until the last Ukrainian”, but that might be about to be turned on its head as a result of recent developments. In the span of less than a week: Trump talked to Zelensky about his peace plan; the Vatican’s top diplomat visited Ukraine; and Ukraine’s Foreign Minister is visiting China, the last two for the first time since 2022. From the looks of it, Ukraine is fretting about Trump’s likely return to power and wants to get ahead of the curve by exploring paths to peace, which are intended to give it a chance to shape the process instead of being completely controlled by it if the US suddenly decides to end its latest “forever war”. The supplementary developments that led up to the three aforementioned ones are Orban’s peace missions and the unveiling of former British Prime Minister Johnson’s peace plan. Regarding the first of these two, this saw the Hungarian leader travel to Kiev, Moscow, Beijing, DC, and Mar-a-Lago, after which he recommended in a report to the EU that their bloc explore the modalities of the next peace conference with China and resume dialogue with Russia. As for the second, this infamous hawk proposed territorial compromises with Russia and Ukraine protecting the rights of Russian speakers. These five developments were also just followed by an unexpected proof of concept. It was announced on Tuesday that 14 Palestinian factions signed the Beijing Declaration that’ll end the years-long divisions between Hamas and Fatah, thus showing that lightning does indeed strike twice after China brokered the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement last year. For background, it was explained here how China is trying to organize a Brazilian-fronted parallel peace process on Ukraine ahead of and/or during November’s G20 in Rio, which is more realistic than ever now. To explain, Zelensky read the writing on the wall over the past few weeks about Biden’s inevitable departure from the campaign, especially after Trump’s famous fist-pumping picture that followed his miraculous survival of an assassination attempt earlier this month turned him into a hero. This places his unprecedented proposal of Russia participating in the next round of Swiss-like Ukraine talks in November into context even though he hasn’t yet at this point signaled any willingness to compromise with it. He suggested this on 15 July, and it was sometime last week that the Vatican’s and Ukraine’s top diplomats finalized their trips, the first to Ukraine and the second to China. 19 July then saw Johnson publish his peace plan, the details of which he likely conveyed to Ukraine and others beforehand, which was the same day as the Trump-Zelensky call. Then the previously mentioned diplomats set off on their respective trips and China coincidentally proved yet again that it can broker game-changing peace deals. The EU disavowed Orban’s peace mission and associated report, yet the visit of the Vatican’s top diplomat to Ukraine hints that they might be relying on the Holy See as a backchannel for finding out whether the political fallout from Biden’s disastrous debate with Trump changed Zelensky’s views. After all, Orban visited Kiev less than a week afterwards when it wasn’t yet clear what its full implications would be, so it’s sensible to dispatch someone else a few weeks later to follow up on everything. Zelensky’s unprecedented proposal last week for Russia to participate in the next round of Swiss-like Ukraine talks in November showed the world that he’s becoming more flexible at least in his rhetoric, thus paving the way for the Vatican’s top diplomat to visit Kiev and for his own such one to visit Beijing. Johnson’s peace plan also contained some carrots in it for Russia pertaining to its return to the G7 and the resumption of its partnership with NATO, which Trump may or may not have discussed with Zelensky. The last part remains unclear since Johnson noted in his op-ed that he talked about the conflict with Trump but clarified that the views expressed therein are his own and claimed that he supposedly doesn’t know how the former American leader might try to resolve this conflict if he’s re-elected. Nevertheless, it’s more likely than not that Johnson sought to informally float at least some of Trump’s proposals in his piece, with the former promoting them before the public and the latter before Zelensky. Trump considers China to be the US’ systemic rival so he doesn’t want it to play any role in the peace process, yet Zelensky just dispatched his top diplomat to Beijing regardless, which is intended to gain negotiating leverage with the US regardless of whatever November’s outcome may be. That trip is obviously at variance with American interests, which suggests that he’s once again “going rogue” a bit by behaving somewhat independently of his patrons. Zelensky knows that his maximalist goal of reconquering all of Ukraine’s lost territory is unrealistic no matter what he says for the purpose of keeping morale high. He therefore wants to retake as much as he can before the US either becomes too fatigued with its latest “forever war” or is forced by circumstances into “Pivoting (back) to Asia” before it’s ready. By publicly displaying interest in China’s mediation, he hopes to either keep the US supporting him for longer or to reach a better peace deal with China’s help. It's a gamble, but he hopes that the next US President might either become so nervous about him flirting with China that they decide to give him more of what he’s been demanding and remove their restrictions or that China can convince Russia to scale back some of its maximalist demands for peace if they won’t. Nobody can confidently predict how far he’ll go in this regard nor exactly how serious he is, but it’s undeniable that Zelensky is changing tack to an extent, which is remarkable development in this conflict. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 09:10
Stumbling Out Of The Gate: Harris Starts Race Down 9 Points, Even Worse Than Biden
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Stumbling Out Of The Gate: Harris Starts Race Down 9 Points, Even Worse Than Biden Democrats' enjoyment of the Kamala Harris campaign's "new car smell" may prove short-lived, as a brand new poll shows the vice president trailing former President Trump by a whopping 11 points among likely voters -- matching up even worse than President Biden, who trailed by 10. The Forbes/HarrisX survey was conducted July 19-21 -- that's after the Republican convention but before Biden was forced to withdraw from the race. “Kamala Harris starts her 2024 battle behind Trump, who is enjoying a strong post-convention bump," said HarrisX chief pollster Dritan Nesho. “If the polls don’t start to close and show better traction for her, Biden’s decision to step aside for Harris may be a case of ‘too similar, too late.’ That said, Vice President Harris alleviates concerns among the democratic base and is better able to sway undecided independents and suburban women, showing some promise.” In an ominous note for the Harris campaign, aside from her worse margin against Trump, in her head-to-head matchup, fewer voters were undecided than they were in a Biden-Trump scenario. Among likely voters, Trump led Biden 49%-39% with 12% undecided. However, versus Harris, Trump led 51%-40%, with 9% undecided. .@JasonMillerinDC: Not only is President Trump defeating Kamala Harris in battleground states like Pennsylvania — where he's ahead by 6 — or Arizona — where he's ahead by 8. Even today, new polling shows President Trump continues to lead Kamala in NEW HAMPSHIRE. A new HarrisX… pic.twitter.com/WDfIRHQuCl — Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) July 22, 2024 "Democrats are jumping out of the frying pan into the fire," Trump campaign senior advisor Jason Miller told Fox News. "They may have gotten rid of one problem with Joe Biden, but they've inherited a whole new problem with Kamala Harris." Continuing a well-established trend, Harris's job-approval rating is as bad as Biden's: both scored a dismal 38% approval. She did a little better than Biden among younger voters, with 42% of those between age 18 and 34 approving of her performance, compared to 36% for Biden. So far, there are few single-state polls gauging a Trump-Harris contest, and none that were taken since she became the presumptive nominee. While the numbers are bound to change after Americans are subjected to a Harris-friendly media blitz, they still give some insight into where she's starting from: An Atlanta-Journal Constitution poll has Trump winning Georgia by 4.6% over Harris, compared to 3.5% over Biden. In a result that shows Democrats clearly on the defensive on the 2024 chessboard, a New Hampshire Journal poll has Trump up 0.9% in Granite State -- where the GOP hasn't won in 24 years. In a glimmer of hope for Democrats, Harris is doing better than Biden in Pennsylvania, but still trails Trump in the pivotal state by 2%. Conversely, Harris is polling worse than Biden in Nevada, losing to Trump by 10%. The results are sure to grind the gears of the many Democratic mega-donors who favored a "mini-primary" to select Biden's replacement atop the 2024 ticket, rather than simply coronating Harris, a demonstrably terrible candidate who didn't even make it to the Iowa caucuses in 2020. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/23/2024 - 08:50