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Russia Surrounds Vital Ukrainian Stronghold After Devastating Power Grid Attack
1735410300 from ZEROHEDGE
Russia Surrounds Vital Ukrainian Stronghold After Devastating Power Grid Attack Ukraine is facing a long period of rolling blackouts this winter after Russia's "Christmas attack" on the country's energy infrastructure. Ukraine reports at least 70 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones were involved in the onslaught which has left at least 50% of Ukrainians without power (accurate reports on true grid damages are impossible to come by and Ukraine keeps such information censored). The usefulness of targeting the power grid is undeniable - Any attempt to establish a reliable manufacturing base in western Ukraine to produce armaments will be impossible. Regular scheduled blackouts are now in effect in many parts of Ukraine in order to preserve power resources. Energy Research Center Director Oleksandr Kharchenko says electricity consumption restrictions in Ukraine may remain in effect for another 2-3 years, and that's if the war ends soon. Another strategic advantage of grid attacks is the use of cold weather conditions to force civilians out of certain energy weak population centers, making it easier to bombard those areas later without producing heavy casualties of non-combatants. The large scale missile strikes are dominating the news feeds, while Russian advancements on the eastern front are barely reported. Southwest of the key city of Pokrovsk, Putin's forces are currently surrounding another "linchpin" town called Velyka Novosilka. The area is considered gateway to the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast region and it's fall would give Russia easier access to central Ukraine due to thinner defensive lines. The town is currently surrounded on at least three sides and experts suggest Ukraine in unlikely to order their troops to retreat due to the importance of the location. Kyiv now fears that the soldiers in the area will soon be encircled. Velyka Novosilka is vulnerable to Russian attack after Ukraine retreated from Vuhledar, roughly 30 kilometers [18 miles] east of Velyka Novosilka. The Ukrainians originally claimed that Vuhledar was strategically "unimportant", but the loss has proven to be disastrous. Russian gains are expected to slow as winter weather takes hold, but so far there have been no signs of relent. Velyka Novosilka will fall within weeks, and Pokrovsk is likely to fall within the next couple of months. The capture of these two vital strongholds will give Russia near total control of the Donbas and Eastern Ukraine. It is not known if the Kremlin intends to continue pressing to the west, or if they only plan to take control of the East and annex the region in a settlement with Trump and the US. A lack of manpower has been blamed for Ukraine's increasing strategic failures. Donald Trump continues to call for an expedient peace plan which includes Ukraine formally giving up some territory to the Russians. Vladimir Zelensky has recently admitted that it is unlikely that Ukraine will ever be able to gain back the land lost to Russian forces. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/28/2024 - 13:25
Court Blocks Biden From Selling Off Portions Of Southern Border Wall
1735408200 from ZEROHEDGE
Court Blocks Biden From Selling Off Portions Of Southern Border Wall Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times, The Biden administration has been instructed by a federal judge not to sell off portions of the U.S.–Mexico border wall, which would allow President-elect Donald Trump to use these materials. On Dec. 17, the State of Texas filed a lawsuit at the U.S. District Court, Southern District of Texas McAllen Division after reports of the Biden administration selling segments of the border wall along the U.S.–Mexico Border. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said he secured a victory in the case after a hearing on Friday. The Biden administration agreed to a court order preventing the federal government from “disposing of any further border wall materials over the next 30 days—allowing President Trump to use those materials as he sees fit,” Paxton’s office said. If the order is violated, the court has the authority to enforce it. “This follows our major victory forcing [President Joe] Biden to build the wall, and we will hold his Administration accountable for illegally subverting our Nation’s border security until their very last day in power, especially where their actions are clearly motivated by a desire to thwart President-elect Trump’s immigration agenda,” Paxton said in a Dec. 27 statement. Congress had dedicated around $1.4 billion to build fencing along the southern border as part of Trump’s bid to counter illegal immigration. After Biden came to power, he issued an executive order ceasing wall construction and asked the Department of Homeland Security to use the funds for other purposes. In May 2024, Attorney General Paxton secured a court order forcing the Biden administration to spend the funds on the border wall. Selling off portions of the border wall that was bought using funds allocated for the purpose would be deemed a violation of this order. The Dec. 17 lawsuit was filed after reports that the federal government “may be auctioning off up to half a mile per day of border wall sections for a mere fraction of the original purchase cost,” Paxton’s office said. “In some cases, the government is allegedly listing entire wall panel sections for sale at a starting bid of just $5.” Border Security During a Dec. 16 press conference, Trump said he spoke with officials in Texas regarding reports of the wall parts auction. “We’re going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars more on building the same wall we already have,” Trump said. “It’s almost a criminal act.” The president-elect said he had spoken with Paxton about securing a restraining order against such actions. “I’m asking today, Joe Biden, to please stop selling the wall,” Trump said. Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said selling the border wall was like “treating our national security as if it’s a yard sale,” according to a Dec. 16 X post. “This isn’t just a fight against the incoming president—it’s a fight against the American people.” Last year, the Biden administration allowed the construction of 20 miles of the southern border, with the president saying he had no choice in the matter but to allow the allocated federal funds to be used for the project. “The money was appropriated for the border wall. I tried to get them to reappropriate, to redirect that money,” Biden said in an address. When asked whether the border wall was effective, the president replied, “no.” In 2020, the Department of Homeland Security said that the border wall resulted in a decline in incidents of illegal crossings, smuggling of drugs, and human smuggling. Earlier this year, Melissa Dalton, the assistant secretary of defense for Homeland Defense and Hemispheric Affairs, told lawmakers that “a border barrier can help mitigate the flow” of illegal immigrants. Most Americans also favor building a U.S.–Mexico border wall. A Monmouth University poll released in February showed that 58 percent of respondents supported such a measure, breaking the previous high of 48 percent in 2015. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/28/2024 - 12:50
Former State Department Official David Asher: Americans "Will Soon Learn" COVID Origins Truth
1735406100 from ZEROHEDGE
Former State Department Official David Asher: Americans "Will Soon Learn" COVID Origins Truth Revelations that senior US intelligence officials in the early days of the virus pandemic suppressed research indicating a Chinese lab leak as the origin of Covid-19 surfaced in a new Wall Street Journal report titled "Behind Closed Doors: The Spy-World Scientists Who Argued Covid Was a Lab Leak" late this week. The investigation by WSJ's Michael Gordon and Warren Strobel shows the disagreements within the intelligence community over Covid origins... But an investigation by The Wall Street Journal shows that the disagreements among intelligence experts over what should be included in the report ran deeper than is publicly known. Nor were the FBI scientists the only ones who believed that the intelligence directorate's review didn't tell the whole story. Three scientists at the National Center for Medical Intelligence, part of the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency, conducted a scientific study that concluded that Covid-19 was manipulated in a laboratory in a risky research effort. But that analysis was at odds with the assessment of their parent agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and wasn't incorporated in the report presented to Biden. -WSJ Specifically, who decided to exclude input from the Defense Department and the FBI—the only agency to conclude with "moderate confidence" that a lab leak was the likely origin—from the August 2021 briefing to President Biden and the subsequent official federal conclusion that Covid most likely originated naturally? David Asher, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former head of State Department investigations into Covid origins, joined Vince Coglianese, host of WMAL's "The Vince Coglianese Show," on Friday evening to discuss the cover-up of Covid's origins during the Biden administration. "We can confirm based on public commercial business records with Chinese government businesses were controlled by the Chinese intelligence service. I mean, the stuff about Hunter and James Biden, you know, his son and brother being tied to CEFC, a company that was infamously associated with the Ministry of State Security in China ... I think it has a lot to do with it, and that needs to be investigated as well. I mean, there's no logical reason why Biden would not continue the Covid investigation that I started. He was briefed on it and he buried, it" Asher said. Asher continued, "The Chinese created Covid. It was not Fauci - he did contribute science, technology, and US taxpayer dollars to it. So did the US State Department and United States Agency for International Development provided huge amounts of money to the Chinese for investigating bat coronavirus viruses and then doing in effect gain of function type research in China." "We have a Deep State that is so out of control..." Asher emphasized. He continued, "We have so much to do in the second Trump Administration to uncover the origin of Covid, assess the costs culpability and responsibility of the Chinese, and then go after our own government Deep State apparatus that covered this thing up with the Chinese in their own sort of parallel universe of a premeditated cover-up." "We had a senior scientist named Adrienne Keen who used to brief people like me at the State Department. She didn't tell us that she was also working for the World Health Organization, apparently at the time, as a contractor. I mean, like, I can't start the level of which this is crazy. I mean, the FBI's investigation clearly indicated that this thing came out of a lab based on a suspected animal accident," the former State Department official said. He noted that the American people "will soon learn" the truth about the origins of Covid. "Remember Biden Declassified all the Covid intelligence, but nothing was actually put out there. There's a lot of intelligence that John Ratcliffe will get out the door very very soon," Asher said. He added, "I've met with some of the NSEC team already about it. I know that Senator Paul, who is up on The Hill, will attack this with a bulldozer and machine gun if necessary to get to the bottom of this. The FBI just recently put out with its spokesman on the record that they maintain their investigation, and I wouldn't be surprised that there might even be criminal charges against some of these people involved - probably not Fauci himself because he'll get away forever with anything - but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden pardons him preemptively and probably pardons his brother preemptively. His brother did not create Covid but his brother was getting millions of dollars in money from the Chinese, which is why Biden didn't want to investigate the origin of Covid because it would get in the way of that uh relationship." Asher said, "The FBI is sitting on a huge case file of over 200 people that they ran a criminal investigation in effect ... and maybe we're going to see criminal charges because somebody in the US government needs to be blamed" for Covid. Separately on X, Asher wrote: "This was why I told people that we at State—via "deep State"—were partially to blame for the coverup. It wasn't the team I advised, certainly, leading the investigation, not Secretary Pompeo. It was a certain senior official in charge of "arms control" and his minions, including Keene. They were the ones who warned us repeatedly we were opening something akin to a Pandora's box, which would blow up in our faces. I made it clear whatever is inside the box, I didn't care if it blew up in THEIR faces—We needed to get to the bottom of what caused COVID, why the Chinese were covering it up and facilitating its release, and why NIH and a bunch of scientists they funded were in on the Fauci organized US coverup. Scientific Wuhangate continues but will be getting exposed under Donald Trump II. Much more to come, I hope." This was why I told people that we at State—via “deep State”—were partially to blame for the coverup. It wasn’t the team I advised, certainly, leading the investigation, not Secretary Pompeo. It was a certain senior official in charge of “arms control” and his minions, including… https://t.co/BGZMRpobWw — David Asher (@dasher8090) December 26, 2024 In another X post, he said, "We all need to get ready to help President Trump make America truly Great again by holding the ChiComms accountable for mass murder and Fauci and "scientific" associates as accessories of the crime. I'm now triple deep black MAGA on COVID, fentanyl, and making China pay." Thanks for listening. We all need to get ready to help President Trump make America truly Great again by holding the ChiComms accountable for mass murder and Fauci and “scientific” associates as accessories of the crime. I’m now triple deep black MAGA on COVID, fentanyl, and… — David Asher (@dasher8090) December 28, 2024 Asher also noted on X, "President Trump absolutely should pull the plug on the WHO. It's a worse than useless organization. It totally failed us in the biggest public health crisis modern world history. It's a disgrace and a disservice to civilization." President Trump absolutely should pull the plug on the WHO. It’s a worse than useless organization. It totally failed us in the biggest public health crisis modern world history. It’s a disgrace and a disservice to civilization https://t.co/O2pXLGjsOl — David Asher (@dasher8090) December 24, 2024 And this... Great analysis https://t.co/axR2vaavHc — David Asher (@dasher8090) December 22, 2024 As well as, let's not forget about the documentary "Thank You, Dr. Fauci," which provides the American people with an understanding of Covid origins... @BiosafetyNow formed after the pandemic to combat Fauci’s reckless gain-of-function agenda, expose negligence, malfeasance and fraud. Scientists like @Bryce_Nickels and @jbkinney are working to retract illegitimate science papers secretly commissioned by Fauci and others 🧵3/15 pic.twitter.com/VTDO4BkLg9 — Thank You Dr Fauci (@ThankYouDrFauci) December 16, 2024 The American people are set to receive a truth bomb about Covid origins—something Zero Hedge readers have been well aware of since January 2020 (see: here). Tyler Durden Sat, 12/28/2024 - 12:15
The Biggest Supreme Court Decisions Of 2024
1735404000 from ZEROHEDGE
The Biggest Supreme Court Decisions Of 2024 Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The Supreme Court made a wave of historic and game-changing decisions in 2024 on topics ranging from presidential immunity to social media and ballot disqualification. The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on March 10, 2020. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times The presidential election combined with rising administrative law disputes helped tee up controversies that put the court and its decisions in the spotlight. Legal precedent flowing from those decisions created rippling effects for other cases and how entire branches of government are expected to make decisions. Here are several of the biggest cases this term. Presidential Immunity (Trump v. United States) One of the most politically controversial cases this term stemmed from President-elect Donald Trump’s now-dismissed election interference case in Washington. In Trump v. United States, Trump appealed the case with the argument that under the Constitution, presidents should enjoy immunity from criminal prosecution. It was the first major Supreme Court precedent establishing presidential immunity since 1982 in Nixon v. Fitzgerald, wherein the court held that presidents enjoy immunity from civil liability for actions taken within the outer perimeter of his duties. By taking up the case earlier this year, the Supreme Court created a lengthy delay for the pre-trial process and the case was eventually dismissed because of Trump’s election win. The court’s decision set a major historical precedent by outlining the contours of criminal immunity. For unofficial acts, presidents are not immune, while for official acts, presidents enjoy certain levels of immunity, according to the decision. The majority offered some broad guidance on distinguishing between official and unofficial acts but acknowledged that doing so “can be difficult.” Chief Justice John Roberts said that lower courts should not inquire into a president’s motives and that they could not deem something unofficial “merely because it allegedly violates a generally applicable law.” While courts should base their distinctions on what a president’s discretionary authority entails, some conduct could qualify “even when not obviously connected to a particular constitutional or statutory provision.” Trump has attempted to apply that decision to his other criminal cases, including one still playing out in New York. For example, Trump argued in New York that prosecutors improperly used evidence, including testimony, that was prohibited under the immunity decision. Former President Donald Trump departs the Waldorf Astoria where he held a press conference following his appearance in a court in Washington on Jan. 9, 2024. The D.C. Appeals Court held a hearing on the former president's claim that he is immune from prosecution in the 2020 election case. Kent Nishimura/Getty Images However, New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan said that the evidence in question related “entirely to unofficial conduct” and was therefore not protected. It’s unclear how exactly the new precedent should be applied, and future cases involving presidents could help iron out the details. While the Supreme Court offered a broad outline of immunity, it remanded Trump’s election case in Washington for further determinations by the lower court regarding specific conduct. The case has since been dismissed. Ballot Disqualification (Trump v. Anderson) Before the immunity ruling in June, Trump prompted another historic ruling from the high court in March. In Trump v. Anderson, the court wrestled with how to interpret a provision of the 14th Amendment that disqualifies insurrectionists from serving in certain government offices. The legal debate surrounding the topic was extensive with multiple critical points on which the court could base its decision. Some argued that Trump, as a former president, wasn’t the type of “officer of the United States” who was subject to disqualification under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Others disagreed with the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision that Trump had engaged in insurrection—on Jan. 6, 2021—as covered by that section. A unanimous Supreme Court ultimately held that states, including Colorado, could not disqualify candidates for federal office as Congress was responsible for enforcing Section 3. Like the immunity decision, the decision in Trump v. Anderson also revealed divisions in the court. The court’s decision was 9–0 but justices produced separate concurrences that raised speculation that Justice Sonia Sotomayor might have initially intended to dissent. Justice Amy Coney Barrett issued a standalone concurrence in which she suggested the court’s more liberal justices used overly heated rhetoric while agreeing that the court’s conservatives went too far in their majority opinion. Sotomayor’s concurrence, which was joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, accused the majority of attempting to insulate all alleged insurrectionists from future challenges to their holding federal office. Megakaren Norma Anderson, the lead plaintiff in the lawsuit seeking to disqualify former President Donald Trump from election eligibility speaks to members of the media in front of the U.S. Supreme Court, following oral arguments on Trump's challenge to a Colorado court ruling barring him from the state's primary ballot based on the 14th Amendment, in Washington on Feb. 8, 2024. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images Jan. 6 Obstruction Charge (Fischer v. United States) Another high-profile case arose from Jan. 6 defendants challenging the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) application of a financial reform law in their prosecutions. The DOJ had charged some defendants with violating the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, which contains provisions related to document destruction and obstructing an official proceeding. The section in question reads: “Whoever corruptly—alters, destroys, mutilates, or conceals a record, document, or other object, or attempts to do so, with the intent to impair the object’s integrity or availability for use in an official proceeding; or otherwise obstructs, influences, or impedes any official proceeding, or attempts to do so, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both.” The DOJ had argued that the second portion, starting with “or otherwise obstructs” allowed prosecutions that targeted obstructive conduct in a catch-all way that included methods other than those mentioned at the beginning of the section. A majority of the Supreme Court, including Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, disagreed in Fischer v. United States and held the following: “To prove a violation of §1512(c)(2), the Government must establish that the defendant impaired the availability or integrity for use in an official proceeding of records, documents, objects, or other things used in an official proceeding, or attempted to do so.” It’s unclear how Trump and his DOJ will apply the Fischer decision to the defendants’ unique circumstances. Sarbanes-Oxley carries a 20-year maximum sentence. In November, the DOJ said it was reviewing cases of “approximately 259 defendants who, at the time Fischer was decided, were charged with or convicted of violating 18 U.S.C. § 1512 to determine whether the charge should continue to be prosecuted.” The DOJ said that after Fischer, the government “decided to forgo the Section 1512(c)(2) charge for approximately 96 defendants, will continue to pursue the charge for approximately 13 defendants, and continues to assess the remaining defendants.” Read the rest here... Tyler Durden Sat, 12/28/2024 - 11:40
Slovakia To Cut Ukraine's Power Supply After Zelensky Gas Flow Threats
1735401900 from ZEROHEDGE
Slovakia To Cut Ukraine's Power Supply After Zelensky Gas Flow Threats After thirteen separate large scale missile and drone strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year alone, the country is facing a 50% to 70% grid down scenario just as temperatures are about to drop well below freezing. Rolling blackouts are expected for many months to come, with some energy experts saying that the grid could be down for up to 20 hours per day in many areas. Power outages are specifically detrimental to industrial production, heating for homes and clean running water. After three years of Russian strikes Ukraine has become increasingly reliant on energy resources from outside the country. Slovakia is one of the nations providing that humanitarian aid. In January to November this year, Slovkia exported 2.4 million megwatthours of electricity, a 152% year-on-year increase. They also provide around 5% of Ukraine's total diesel supply, which is vital for military vehicles and generators. The deal is reciprocal, with Kyiv refraining from interference with Russian gas flows from pipelines running through Ukraine over to Slovakia. To get gas from other sources would increase Slovakia's energy costs greatly. Though Slovakia has remained neutral on the war, Ukraine and the European Union have recently accused them of becoming "too cozy" with Vladimir Putin. Zelensky plans to shut down Russian gas pipelines to Slovakia on January 1st. Kyiv has refused to renew a transit deal with Moscow expiring at the end of the year while they remain at war. Prime Minister Robert Fico, who survived a failed assassination attempt this May, says that he is being demonized by NATO. As the war progresses and Ukraine loses more and more ground to Russia, neutrality is being treated as treason by Kyiv and their western partners. The pressure tactics have, in fact, had the opposite intended effect. Fico has made a surprise visit to the Kremlin to meet with Putin to ensure his country's energy security. And, after Christmas, Slovakia announced its intentions to cut all backup energy supplies to Ukraine, including electricity and diesel resources. Ukrainian officials have asserted in the past that losing supplies from countries like Slovakia and Hungary would not have an effect on their overall readiness. However, Russian missile attacks have damaged Ukraine's infrastructure to the point of no return and they clearly need every watt of power they can get. Such a shutdown may also inspire other nations with neutral tied with Ukraine and Russia to shift closer to the Kremlin. After Fico's trip to Russia, Putin has said that he was open to accepting Slovakia's latest offer as a place for peace negotiations with Ukraine. Fico's visit to Moscow is being treated with hostility as it is widely seen as a blow to the EU bloc's unity against Russia's invasion. ''He first and foremost spoke about a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. He was pushing it. I don’t know what claims could be made against him by Europe or anyone else. But he spoke about this and focused his attention on this," the Russian leader said at a briefing in St. Petersburg on Thursday. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/28/2024 - 11:05
The World Order Is Dangerously In Flux
1735399800 from ZEROHEDGE
The World Order Is Dangerously In Flux Authored by James Howard Kunstler, Forecast 2025 - Taking Out the Trash "A core reflex in these decades of postmodern insanity was constant rejection of things we thought we knew in favor of New, Improved Beliefs packaged from above.” - Matt Taibbi, Racket News I would guess that you’re feeling as if anything might happen now. It’s hard to rule out even the possibility that we could all be vaporized before moving onto the next mundane chore of the day. The world order is dangerously in flux. America’s Woke-Jacobin “Joe Biden” regime was defeated in the 2024 election, but they were apparently just a front for the sinister entity we call the “blob” or the Deep State, which in recent years has consistently and garishly acted against our country’s interests. So, the blob abides, and it probably weaves schemes in the deep background of daily life even as a new government awaits. But if the Woke-Jacobin Biden-istas were tied-in with the so-called “globalist” enterprise centered around the EU bureaucracy, with assistance from the World Economic Forum’s network of zillionaires and bankers. . . well, that coalition looks rather broken now. It’s doing a hurt-dance. It’s on the run, a little bit. What is not broken for the moment — a tenuous moment — is the new Trump regime’s determination to correct the disorders of Western Civ, starting with the affairs of the USA, according to age-old reality-based norms of behavior and good-faith relations between the people and their government. Trust was broken and must be restored. The President-elect has assembled an extraordinary team of reformers, if they can get to their posts without subversion. And, of course, Mr. Trump himself has to evade further attempts to rub him out, to knock him off the game-board before he can take office, and then he must survive the months beyond his inauguration. So, you are correct to be nervous. Paradoxically, Mr. Trump has to initially manage the US government as if it deserves a sense of reassuring continuity, which, in many respects it does not deserve. So many institutions and relationships between them have been perverted and damaged. How do we pretend that the upper layers of management in any federal agency — the strata who really run things below the top “political” appointees — can continue in-place as if all that perversion never happened? The Department of Justice and the FBI are filled with lawyers and agents who abused their power egregiously and went to war against the American people. The agency’s work will just have to stop for a while. The nation can probably endure if investigations and prosecutions are suspended for sixty days while the personnel issues get sorted out — who goes and who stays. But what about the Defense Department and the CIA? The country must be able to defend itself. These departments are the lairs of the more dangerously entrenched blob actors. Both DOD and the CIA have come to be organized as racketeering operations. Both are involved in domestic money-laundering activities at the giant scale, and in rackets abroad — such as the many grifts around Ukraine, in which giant financial entities like BlackRock are partnered-in. (You know, for instance, don’t you, that BlackRock was poised to acquire control of Ukraine’s natural resource base, until Mr. Putin’s resolve ended that fantasy.) And the CIA is suspected of being deeply involved in the Mexican crime cartel operations, both around drugs and human trafficking. The imputations are sickening. The DOD and the CIA will fight desperately to preserve their perqs and projects, and to stay out of jail. But until now they have not really been challenged. The public health agencies, FDA, NIAID, CDC, NIH, and so on have become outright mafias, with labyrinths of money-laundering channels, government grant-grifting, and pharma phuckery, not least around the still-mysterious, homicidal Covid-19 prank, with the deadly mRNA vaccine program piggybacked onto it. Their nemesis, RFK, Jr., is coming on-board to oversee exactly what happened in these corrupt fiefdoms. If you have read his books about Dr. Anthony Fauci, you know that he is adequately prepared to discover what took US public health off-the-rails. Don’t forget, also, that the entire medical profession lies in a slough of dishonor for going along with the fake-and-deadly Covid-19 treatment protocols (intubation, remdesivir, midazolam, and morphine) that killed so many people needlessly. Plus, the doctors’ dishonest demonization of ivermectin and other viable treatments, plus the disgraceful, mendacious behavior of the medical journals in the whole filthy scam. Next, consider the rickety, cruel, Kafkaesque US health insurance system that is now all but running the doctors’ practices. It is an unholy mess. What can you do but wish Mr. Kennedy God-speed in beginning to unravel it all? Surely, a lot of people involved deserve to go to prison. For all you know, the heavyweights of blobdom might be plotting some sort of coup during the Holiday season to prevent Mr. Trump from taking power on January 20. Failure to mount a coup would actually signal some essential weakness in the blob’s own enterprise architecture. The blob has certainly tried everything so far up to an actual coup, that is, a sharp discontinuity in constitutional government — like, with tanks around the US Capitol and generals in the Oval Office. The blob’s other problem is that it has no powerful individual leader to rally behind, no one with charisma. It has only its multifarious tentacles — departments, agencies, offices, and operations — which Mr. Trump and his lieutenants can lop off in broad strokes. They can cashier generals, defund projects, shut-down offices and programs, send US Marshals into CIA headquarters in Langley, VA, to lockdown document archives while flushing out employees. Early on, the Trump team has got to assess the patriotism of individuals in these departments. Based on blob behavior of the past decade, no one’s fidelity to the constitution can be taken-for-granted. It will surely be necessary to begin open inquiries into the recent behavior of some prominent political figures in order to demonstrate a serious intent to reform. For just one example, Alejandro Mayorkas, the Homeland Security chief who threw the US Border wide open for four years, presents a probable cause case for treason. Perhaps the new Attorney General can convene a grand jury away from the blob-dominated DC federal court district, say in Texas where these crimes on the border were actually committed — crimes such as ordering the US Border Patrol to stand down while whole caravans waded the Rio Grande. Attorney General Merrick Garland needs to answer publicly for his coordination of a massive DOJ lawfare conspiracy. How exactly did Deputy US AG Matthew Colangelo end up in Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s office? Who green-lighted the harsh prosecutions of Jan 6 suspects by Matthew Graves, in particular their long pre-trial detentions in solitary confinement? Who in the White House confabbed with attorney Nathan Wade to manage the Fulton County case against Mr. Trump and eighteen other defendants? Why did Delaware federal attorney David Weiss allow the statute of limitations run out on Hunter Biden’s 2014 and 2015 tax evasion cases? Stuff like that. And, of course, FBI Director Christopher Wray needs to answer for the Jan 6 DNC / RNC pipe bomb caper, and the roles of “confidential human sources” in the Jan 6 Capitol riot — including the antics of the notorious Ray Epps. Plus, the three years of RussiaGate and his cavalier use of the FISA Courts. Please subpoena SC District Judge James Boasberg on that, too, while you’re at it. It will not take many inquiries like these to get the point across. The point will be that after many years of absence, consequence is back on the table for those who abuse power. During the transition — Nov 6 to Jan 20 — Mr. Trump has equivocated a bit about his intentions to bring back consequence in federal operations. On one hand he claims he’s “not interested in retribution,” while on the other hand he has named appointees such as Kash Patel at FBI and John Ratcliffe at CIA who are intimately acquainted with the illegal activities in those places and on-the-record as eager to set consequence in motion. It’s hard to imagine they will demur from getting answers about what has been going on and who is responsible, and take corrective measures. If he makes it through confirmation, it may be less difficult for a Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to straighten out the Pentagon. The military is much more explicitly hierarchical, and orders are orders. Generals and bureaucrats will be ordered out of the building. But then there are large dark pools of activity hidden from the public, things like DARPA and its many offshoots, that may be harder to penetrate. You must imagine that there are operations hidden even from the SecDef. We keep hearing that the Pentagon can’t pass an audit and can’t account for trillions of mis-spent dollars. Guess what? Someone (or many someones) can be court-martialed for that. Again: consequence returns. Suddenly things are done correctly. Perhaps even a lost sense of honor is restored. The Fiscal Abyss Who knows what Elon & Vivek’s DOGE group can accomplish? But there are hard limits in the fiscal whoppers like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and veterans benefits that won’t yield much. Blogger David Stockman, former head of the Congressional Budget Office, estimates that even firing three-quarters of all federal employees would only save about $700 billion in savings, which is not enough to avoid a debt death spiral. The carried debt alone could sink whatever else Mr. Trump seeks to accomplish, especially as it can morph into a lethal currency crisis at any time — a runaway inflation and / or collapse of the bond market that would put a lot of people and enterprises out of business, bringing on a new great depression. There’s always talk about “growing” our way out of debt. I doubt we will be able to do that in the proposed way, based on economic dynamics we’ll get to further below. In his first term, Mr. Trump made noises about defaulting on US debt. I think you will hear chatter about doing just that in the early days of 2025. Though it sounds horrendous, default will happen one way or another: either an honest repudiation of treasury paper (Sorry, we just can’t make the payments anymore), or by allowing currency collapse to do the dirty work for us (Sorry, but our money is worthless. Here’s a billion dollars. . . enjoy the bagel you get for it). Much of the rest of the world is in similar straits debt-wise, especially Europe and China. The Bretton Woods system for regulating world money has been brain-dead for many years. It’s not hard to imagine something replacing it, including the US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency (with all its exorbitant privileges). It remains to be seen what role, if any, cryptocurrencies might play in world trade. Many people are wowed by Bitcoin’s journey above $100,000 lately. I’m still not persuaded that it’s anything but a classic bubble in a speculation that represents nothing — except maybe the electricity expended in processing the math attached to its “creation.” A blogger friend makes this interesting point: What will matter is that one Bitcoin transaction is equivalent to about a month of electricity for the average US household. As Bitcoin grows, energy “consumption” grows exponentially. Note, I said CONSUMPTION, NOT PRODUCTION. If you believe in infinite cheap energy fueled by infinite free money and debt, then all the power to you! No pun intended. . . . — Wendy Williamson For all the “wow,” Bitcoin still lacks the principal properties of true money. It’s not a practical medium of exchange (buying stuff), it’s not a useful store of value (with its periodic crashes and zooms), nor a reliable index of prices (ditto). To me, it looks like a fugazy that has made a small number of people very rich within a limited window of history. Naturally, the people who got rich, who converted their Bitcoins into villas, yachts, and shares of Nvidia, are infatuated with Bitcoin and the phenomenon of crypto. If there is one thing that might characterize the new times we are entering, it will be the recognition that real things have more value than fake things. We have been traumatized by fakery, and going forward great effort will go into identifying it. Our survival depends on being able to discern the fake from the real. Money and Economy Does the world really need a certified universal money agreement? Nothing like Bretton Woods existed until eighty years ago, and it came into being only because the USA so dominated the globe after a ruinous war in Europe and Asia it could command the world’s obedience — at least the parts that weren’t communist. Before that, currencies, monies, and commodities existed, of course, and people took calculated chances trading in them. Usually, but not always, one nation’s currency dominated for a while, as the pound sterling did before World War Two. But paper currencies are a relative novelty. The US only started using paper money in the 1860s. When “money” was mostly gold or silver coin, exchange rates were easy to determine by the purity and weight of a coin. When paper entered the scene, bankers, speculators, and merchants had to do their own due diligence to discover whether X-tons of iron ore, tons of coal, or wheat were worth trading for X-amount of yen, deutschmarks, pounds sterling, and dollars. Those quandaries birthed hedging in currency and commodity trades — a device now wildly perverted, deforming the dynamics of risk and price discovery in everything. We are probably headed back into that world of diverse monies with inherent risks, part and parcel with a multi-polar world of regional hegemons. The US dollar can no longer act as the universal collateral guaranteeing all transactions. Hence, the trade in debt, bonds, and borrowing re-acquires layers of risk absent for a long time. Government borrowing — issuance of sovereign bonds — necessarily declines in that milieu as moral hazard reappears in financial affairs and governments can no longer promiscuously float their spending on debt. Other countries have already discontinued their purchases of US Treasury paper. Where will the customers for US debt come from? (Answer: nowhere.) It’s just another way that nations and their people are forced to get real in a new disposition of things. For now, it has probably been demonstrated that central bank digital currencies are unlikely to work. (Nigeria’s eNaira program, the world’s first large-scale experiment in CBDCs flopped miserably.) Along with the tyrannical surveillance issues, too many citizens rely on transacting business in cash, and if the cash turns no-good, they will find other instruments for transacting, perhaps even things as crude and straightforward as gold and silver, with no counter-party risk, no leverage, and no bullshit attached. To me, though, reversion to hard currency would imply a devolution to far less-complex economies and much lower standards of living. All that runs counter to the current excitement about technological advances compensating for declining systems of modernity — derived from the 20th century religion of endless, limitless progress — creating evermore available (fake) capital. These are the expectations for Artificial Intelligence, advances in “green technology” (especially enhanced electric batteries), next-generation nuclear power, and energy tech not yet achieved but dreamed about such as atomic fusion and zero-point energy. Oil For now, the primary resource of our economy remains oil. All other technologies, including nuclear and “green” tech, still require oil for the production of their hardware and maintenance. US oil production reached an all-time high in late 2024 at 13.6million barrels a day — way higher than the old, pre-fracking era “peak oil” figure of 10-million b/d from 1970, and superficially impressive. Fracking has made all the difference the past two decades, but it is not a permanent installation in the human condition. The continuing production increase has come from enhanced drilling techniques even while the supply of tier-one “sweet-spots” in the Permian Basin of West Texas has markedly declined — and the Permian Basin is the last redoubt of economic shale oil (oil economically worth recovering) in the USA. Mr. Trump has promised loudly and often to “Drill, baby, drill.” Aggressive drilling and opening remaining frontiers like the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil production could extend America’s oil abundance on the short end, but there are no meaningful “exploration” prospects left in North America beyond that. We’ll be fooling ourselves. It’s been a nice ride, but the end is in sight. In the Permian Basin, the best drilling locations are increasingly rare as the more productive areas have been exploited. Production In the Permian has declined by 15-percent since 2020, according to data from Enverus. Break-even costs are rising. New well productivity per lateral foot is declining. ZIRP is bygone and the cost of capital (interest on borrowed money) is up with inflation. From 2009 to 2020 — the ZIRP years — investors flocked to shale oil stocks since they couldn’t make a buck on bonds. But the shale producers had trouble making money, even though they produced a lot of oil. Many went bankrupt. After that, investors grew shy about investing in shale oil. Going forward, the capital might not be there for these capital-intensive operations. With the old oil — say, conventional oil in Oklahoma, 1950, where you just banged a pipe in the ground and oil gushed out — the cost of drilling a well was around $500,000 per well (in today’s money). They produced thousands of barrels a day for decades. Shale oil wells cost between $6-million to $12-million per well, with horizontal drilling and fracking (utilizing vast amounts of water trucked-in, plus chemicals and fracking sand to keep the fractures open). The shale wells produce far less per day than the old conventional wells and they decline by over 50-percent in one year. After three or four years, they’re done. Do you see the difference? Higher oil prices are required to justify new capital expenditure. Yet day-by-day the declining American middle-class steadily loses its ability to pay more for oil and individuals and households go broke under the strain of higher prices. The overall dynamic of our economy starts to wobble. Fewer people can qualify for car loans, which is mainly the way American acquire cars. Car-makers are stuck with excess inventory. Eventually the car-makers’ business model fails. And, by the way, it ought to be clear by now that we will not transition from oil-based cars to all-electric cars — surely not at the same scale of mass ownership. Electric cars just cost too much. What happens when mass motoring becomes incrementally less mass, less democratic, something only for the well-off? Answer: It stops. It becomes a focus of resentment and rage. It loses its government subsidies (highway repair, etc). It also leads to the demise of America’s premier living arrangement: suburbia. I have written about this quandary for years. It has been hanging over America’s head, and we are unable to imagine how it plays out — mainly because of the titanic sunk-costs involved. We’ve invested so much of our historic cumulative wealth in building the infrastructure for this living arrangement that letting go of it is unthinkable. Yet, it is already becoming severely dysfunctional. And, of course, as that happens, its components — the tract houses, the strip malls, the office parks — will lose their value, meaning that it will become ever-harder for many people to successfully cash out of it and move elsewhere. And even so, where would that elsewhere be? That problem is exacerbated by the ruinous condition of American cities and their future trajectory. Many US cities have already failed outright — Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, Baltimore, Buffalo etc. They are abysmally governed and falling to pieces. They are filled with purposeless humanity, lost souls, dangerous criminals, and ever-fewer places of employment. Even the arguably still-successful cities — New York, Boston, Miami — have attained a scale of operation that is not sustainable, not consistent with the resource and capital scarcities to come. They will have to contract, drop services, lose population — and the process will be very messy. Eventually, they’ll be smaller, but they still occupy some of the best geographical sites, so they will not disappear altogether. The contraction will take a long time to resolve. For the present, that leaves the thousands of small towns across America that have been drained of vitality and investment for decades. Despite the damage, they have two big virtues: they already exist at a scale more congenial to redevelopment in a resource-and-capital constrained time; and many of them are geographically proximate to places where food can be grown for their own support. We will discover that this is where the action will move to. This is where much of the remaining population will resettle as the giant cities and suburbia enter their epic decline. More Change Than You Bargained For The “Golden Age” euphoria is palpable in these weeks before the Trump inauguration. Wall Street is in a rapture imagining a renaissance of corporate enterprise as a punitive regulatory regime lifts. But, just as gigantic cities tend to fail on the issue of scale, the economy as a whole is in need of reorganizing at a finer grain of enterprise. Gigantism itself, gigantic corporations with their tropism for monopoly, have become increasingly ruinous for communities, households, and individual lives in our time. Americans need more autonomy in their economic lives. The trouble is, we might have to get there the hard way — via a general crash of things organized at too large a scale, which would force the necessary rebuild at a smaller and more local scale. This implies a coming second great depression. It’s not hard to imagine such a crash occurring in the first year of a Trump regime. For one thing, there are surely nefarious parties and persons who would like to see it happen, who might even seek to engineer a financial train wreck for revenge against Mr. Trump and his followers. Anyway, a severely overvalued stock market is begging for correction. Ditto the housing market (and the over-valued collateral it represents) that so much of finance rests on. Too many banks are insolvent. The debt quagmire ensures that government can’t rush to the rescue as it has in past emergencies to bail out the banks without destroying the dollar. You might also wonder about the proposition laid out in David Rogers Webb’s book, The Great Taking, about the meticulously planned scheme for central bankers to seize much of the collateral in the world, meaning all your stuff. Sounds a little grandiose and preposterous, perhaps, but the fact is that the regulatory authorities of Western Civ have rewritten the banking rules stealthily over the years so that anyone with a bank account is now considered just a low-order creditor whose assets can be taken in the event of a banking emergency. Your savings are just labeled “collateral,” and your “ownership” of the assets is not what you thought it was. The scam seems fantastic, but the rules are in place, waiting to be sprung. Mr. Webb’s concise 99-page book is available free as a pdf HERE. Of course, a global implosion of equity and bond markets would be the end of financial life as we’ve known it, and none of the abstract chatter about banking rules takes sufficient account of the grotesque social disorder that would attend such an event, so any Great Taking might end up being beside the point — the point being that everyone is broke, no one can transact, and things get awfully dire. But we get a bit ahead of ourselves going up that path. So, let’s return to things we know about. Mr. Trump’s proposed economic reforms have inescapable overtones of contraction. Paring down the federal government workforce may have many benefits, but it would likely cause a depression in the DC Metro area as jobs are massively eliminated, and the economic damage would radiate through the rest of the country as departments are trimmed and shut down, and the money flowing out of them stops. The effect of a tariff campaign could hurt American business in the short term. Import replacement is a laudatory goal, but it’s liable to be a rough road getting there. Supply lines will break. People and businesses will not get the things they need to do produce goods. It takes time and capital to set up new factories. The tendency will be to run production with robots as far as possible — so, where will the people earn a living? Robots will not become consumers. You must also wonder more generally whether it’s really possible to reenact the industrial orgy of the mid-20th century. Detroit will not be what it was in 1962. “Joe Biden” leaves behind an economy already auguring-in, concealed by monumental federal spending of money created out of thin air in the months leading up to the 2024 election to cover-up the failing private US economy. Also, all of the official reporting about jobs in 2024 was fake in order to juice the election for the party in power. US Government outlays for the year were $6.752 trillion against revenue of $4.919 trillion. Government can’t solve the problem of mass joblessness by giving everybody government jobs, and Mr. Trump is not philosophically aligned to that sort 20th century Big Government action. Anyway, too many jobs today are crap jobs toiling for merciless companies who mistreat their workers, so the very meaning of work has been degraded to a new kind of slavery. Plus, too many Americans do not work at all, but subsist on government hand-outs or on crime. How does this change? First, it doesn’t change without the nation going through a period of disorder, discontinuity, and distress. When it does change, the change will be systemic and emergent. It will not come from any top-down government or managerial process. It emerges from the circumstances that reality presents — specifically, the need for people to support themselves, to make themselves useful to their fellow humans, which relationships form into networks of business and work that become a social ecology, a community. So, the second Trump term could usher in a period of deep economic hardship as we try to figure out how to remake an American economy and rebuild those local ecologies of business. Can Mr. Trump assume a role anything like Franklin Roosevelt did in the 1930s? A paternal voice speaking directly to the people and offering them reassurance in a troubled time? They are obviously very different personalities. Also, the lingering political opposition to Mr. Trump is far more noxious on the Left than anything FDR faced from the Right in 1933. Today’s Left is still functionally insane, sunk in Marxian-Woke delusions, race-and-gender animus, and an intemperate libido for power, all of it boding ill for political stability. Americans are used to relying on faceless, distant authorities to take care them, to solve their problems: Social Security, Disability, Medicaid, insurance companies, courts. It all works very poorly now, and before long a lot of it may not work at all. We will have to take care of each other. There have never been so many single-person households as there are now. Loneliness and anomie are epic. When the Boomers are gone, that will likely be the end of nursing home care and assisted living at the cost of many thousands of dollars-a-month. The Boomers’ replacement generations are not nearly as wealthy. They missed the window for being able to buy McMansions that could be liquidated for millions to support end-of-life care. We’ll probably see the rise of households made of unrelated people. But the default setting for humans is the family and the extended family. Some human relations that were common in earlier eras of history, and absent in our time, could return. A little over a century ago, ten percent of the people employed in America were household servants, including what were then middle-class households. Today, only the very wealthy have servants. What hasn’t changed is that people need a place and a purpose, and a purposeful place in a household is not necessarily a bad deal in a civilized society. We just haven’t experienced it in many decades and many Americans would probably find the proposition ridiculous. Yet too many have no place in society and nothing to do, including activities that might be considered duties to one another. Many towns in the 19th century had institutions called the Poor Farm. Sounds terrible, perhaps, but it was a way of providing a place and real duties for people who had nowhere else to go and nothing to occupy them. It was generally organized as a local charity. Residents were expected to work to their ability, raise their own food in gardens, take care of livestock, do laundry and cleaning chores. Today, that might be considered “cruel,” but really, is it as bad as just letting many thousands camp-out on the streets, sunk in drug addiction? What it requires is the political will to organize useful, properly-scaled institutions around these needs. To get there, we must drop a lot of ideological pretenses. We face very serious problems with agriculture organized at the gigantic scale, utilizing multi-million-dollar machines (usually mortgaged), giant loans to put in crops, huge “inputs” of chemicals and fertilizers. That is probably coming to an end, too, despite the current techno-narcissistic fantasies of Agribiz. We’re probably going to need more human beings working directly on farms, smaller farms, with fewer giant machines, less borrowed money for putting in crops, and fewer chemical inputs. Which is to say, we’re probably going to see a larger percentage of the population at work growing our food than has been the case for a long time. I suppose it’s hard to grok our society becoming reorganized so differently, of reviving ways of living and working together that are consistent with human nature, proven over time, but considered out-of-date now. Obviously resurrecting relations like these requires major changes in our national psychology. Today, it is impossible to persuade a lot of citizens that they need to do something useful for a living. Or, to look at it differently, that there might be activities to fill their days that would interesting, satisfying, and rewarded with pay — rather than just loafing, getting high, and watching canned entertainment. Today, we lack countless occupational niches in society that used to allow people of very different abilities to find a place and a purpose, especially, now, people of low ability. If I am correct that the macro trend is to re-scale our economy and re-localize it, those places and purposes can return. It will probably also require a return of the eternal verities, too, as a means of managing social relations: truth, beauty, liberty, brotherly love, trust, fairness. . . conditions and behavior that we should at least agree to aspire to in a common culture worthy of our allegiance. I doubt that the incoming Trump administration sees things developing in the direction of downscaling, decomplexifying, and localizing. Rather, they seem to expect ever more grandiose enterprise, at least in what’s known as the private sector, even while they pare down government. But, really, everything in the everyday life of this nation will have to scale down and happen differently. We’re going to need fewer giant entities like Walmart and more local commercial networks of small businesses geared to local communities. As you may have inferred, I believe that circumstances will deliver us to that new disposition of things in any case, whether political leaders agree or not. If Mr. Trump is wise, he will recognize the trend and go with the flow. Other Parts of the World As I write, governments are falling all over the place. Olaf Scholz cannot form a governing coalition in Germany. In France, Emmanuel Macron’s ruling faction lost bigly in snap elections last summer with no clear majority for any coalition, and also in the EU parliamentary elections. Both countries are using lawfare to defeat their opponents. Mr Scholz’s and his allies are trying to outlaw the rising opposition Alternative for Deutschland (AFD) party, especially after the AFD showed growing strength in state elections in Saxony, Brandenburg, and Thuringia. The Paris prosecutor’s office is trying to nail Marine LePen on embezzling EU funds to pay staff salaries in her National Rally Party. Germany, the largest economy in the EU, has been busy committing suicide for the past decade. The country shut down its nuclear power reactor fleet entirely and went all-in for a “green” energy program (wind and solar) that has fallen far short of being able to supply its needs. It had just gotten ready to receive a reliable supply of cheap Russian natural gas in 2022 when somebody — probably the USA — blew up the Nord Stream One and Two pipelines. Joe Biden declared in so many words that he was going to “stop” the Nord Streams months earlier, so why not believe him? The Germans just rolled over for what would normally be construed as an act-of-war against it, by a NATO ally no less. Consequently, overnight Germany’s advanced industrial economy, its automakers, chemical companies, machine tool-makers, became uncompetitive in global markets and the German economy entered a slow death spiral. Europe is now supposed to be happy to get American liquified natgas, which is much more costly to transport and offload than Russian pipeline gas would have been. France was only marginally better off with its robust nuclear energy production to supply electricity, but it, too, lost access to cheap Russian natgas needed for industry and home heating. Meanwhile, the other nations of the EU have all to one extent or another joined the European suicide pact. The EU has been at war against its own farmers for years for reasons that appear completely insane — perhaps driven by Klaus Schwab and his World Economic Forum. The regulatory architecture of the European Commission is crushing business under its “green” energy and climate change mitigation agenda. Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV) unexpectedly won the most seats in the last election, but not an outright majority, and could not form a working coalition. Wilders did not become prime minister —the job was assigned instead to one Dick Schoof, a career bureaucrat who most recently ran the Netherlands’ Intel service. Canada, entered political limbo in mid-December when Deputy Prime Minister and Finance chief (and WEF board member) Chrystia Freeland suddenly resigned and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looked like he was fighting for his political life in parliament. Mr. Trudeau had only days before made a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago for talks with Donald Trump, who mocked him most severely down there, calling Canada “our fifty-first state” and referring to Mr. Trudeau as “governor.” The Canadian dollar has been tanking since then and stands at 69 cents to the US dollar as I write. Mr. Trudeau will be gone early in the new year at the latest. He’ll be replaced by the Conservative party leader, Pierre Poilievre, who demonstrates an ability to think straight. The European Union regulatory overlayment has become an intolerable burden for the EU member nations. The EU seemed like a good idea at the time, and for many years basic operating principles like a common currency (the Euro) and the Schengen Agreement (free movement of member state citizens and goods across national borders) made daily life easier. But in recent years the EU bureaucracy adopted a set of insane polices: the programmatic destruction of farms and farmers; mass unregulated immigration from third world failed states; and antipathy to petroleum resources for the sake of debatable climate change. Aggravating all this is the unelected EU Commissioners’ lack of accountability to the public. Other technical issues, such as the EU’s lack of fiscal control over individual members and the problems that causes for bond issuance appear irresolvable. Once before, in 2012, financial turmoil has threatened the EU’s existence. But that crisis — the collapse of Greece and its ramifications — got “papered over” with bail-outs and accounting fraud. Now, Europe enters an era not just of critical financial imbalances, but of severe dislocations in the on-the-ground economy of real production. The flood of migrants continues and their aggressive antagonism to age-old European culture is on the rise with calls for Sharia law and a European caliphate. It’s getting to look like a tragi-farcical reenactment of the Mohammedan conquests of the Middle Ages. It’s draining EU members’ treasuries while they go broke from de-industrializing. And countless humiliations are heaped on the people: mass murders, beheadings, constant insults, street violence all over and, just last week, the Christmas market murders in Magdeburg. It’s at a breaking point. As Europe watches Mr. Trump successfully commence deportations, Europe will eventually follow — but not before a tumultuous period in early 2025 when rebellion sweeps away Leftist governments. The European Union could be swept away with them. Borders will harden, national currencies might return, and drastic realignment awaits. The United Kingdom looks like a lost cause due to the utter collapse of the conservative party, leaving Labor temporarily alone on the field, with the monumentally incompetent PM Keir Starmer in charge and an all-out Orwellian regime severely abusing the indigenous British people while it coddles hostile immigrants. That will not last a whole lot longer. Starmer will be chased out in the first half of 2025, just as Liz Truss (remember her?) got dumped in 2022. Waiting to enter at stage-right is Nigel Farage, a genuinely charismatic leader who is destined to become Britain’s Trump. After successfully leading the Brexit charge, he sojourned in the political wilderness like Churchill did between 1929-39. Now he leads the Reform UK Party, which is in the process of utterly eclipsing the broken Tories. Look for Farage to make his move quickly in 2025. Then there is the woeful situation in Ukraine. I’ve written about it often and will recapitulate it as succinctly as possible: The Ukraine War was an American neocon project to destabilize Russia and probably an attempt to gain control of its resource assets. Mr. Putin refused to get rolled and fought back. It has been a hugely costly disaster for Ukraine in blood, capital, and infrastructure. Not a cake-walk for Russia, either. But Mr. Putin will probably attain his objectives, which are: annexation of Donbas and Crimea and establishment of what’s left of Ukraine as a neutral, non-member of NATO. Mr. Trump is eager to end what he calls “this stupid war.” The catch is, how can he settle it expeditiously without appearing to capitulate? Mr. Putin will not budge from retaining Crimea and the Donbas provinces (“oblasts”). That is the condition for even entering talks. The humiliation associated with this project should be all Joe Biden’s, and in some respects certainly will be when his family’s entanglements and machinations are fully exposed, as they are certain to be. Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin will solve the puzzle by pretending to negotiate over the port of Odessa, which will eventually be awarded to the rump Ukraine so it can have access to the sea for its essential grain shipments. They’ll tussle for a while over that but it will be all for show. The war will end. Ukraine will finally hold elections and Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be cast out like a dog that has peed on the rug too many times. I doubt he will survive the year. Both America and Russia pony up money to rebuild Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, but not much more. The world will come to understand exactly what happened. NATO will be a shadow of what it was, if it does not collapse altogether due to the rising political upheavals all over Europe. The Middle East I am not on the bus with the mob shouting about Israel as a perpetrator of “genocide.” Our own General Sherman put it succinctly 160 years ago: War is hell. Hamas should not have started one on October 7, 2023. For that, the Palestinians got hell. Hamas fighters should not have (literally) dug itself in amongst the Palestinian civilians of Gaza, with its labyrinth of war tunnels that the Israelis had to destroy if there would be any end to the strife emanating out of them. The essential problem in that corner of the world is that the region cannot support the huge and still-growing populations of most of the Arab states in it. It is mostly desert. The fantastic wealth of the oil age combined with other circumstances, such as the increase in grain production, to grow these populations. Tragically now, all that has reached a limit and things are going in the other direction: toward collapse. This slow-motion collapse expresses itself in political friction, mass migration, violence, and religious zealotry. The Jihadis are serious about murdering non-Muslims. Considering the action in Europe lately, the truculence of Muslim migrants towards their hosts there, it’s obvious that Jews and Christians are on equal footing as targets. The population Israel of Israel is 9.4 -million. The total population of Palestinians worldwide is estimated to be around 14.8 million as of mid-2024. This includes Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, within Israel, and in the diaspora across various countries. The population of countries adjacent to — Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria — is 145-million. Much of that Arab population subscribes to annihilating the state of Israel, and declares as much publicly all the time. Is Israel not supposed to take those threats seriously? Considering these odds, are you shocked and offended that the United States is an ally of Israel? Do you think that the United States has no strategic interest in any counter-balance to opposing interests in the Middle East? Grow up. The American Woke-Marxists want you to think that this relationship is illicit, unjust. They want you to hate the Jews and hate Israel. You’d better ask yourself: who do these Woke-Marxists serve? Not our interests, not American interests. Israel has managed to make its tiny desert country blossom over the past seventy-five years while also building a manufacturing and tech economy. Due to the constant threats against it, much of the wealth generated by that economy must be directed into the Israeli Defense Force (IDF). It is quite an accomplishment for this tiny state to stand-up against so many enemies. They have won two major wars against them in modern times as well as many periodic border clashes, intifadas, and skirmishes. Their enemies are deeply resentful and probably jealous of Israel’s economic success. The Oct 7, 2023, rape, torture, and murder attack by Hamas prompted Israel to mount an existential defense against an obdurately and garishly murderous enemy. Israel won the Gaza Strip territory from Egypt in the 1967 War. In 2005 it turned over governance of Gaza to the Palestinians. Among other things, the Palestinians could have turned Gaza’s twenty-five-mile-long beach-front into a premier Mediterranean resort. Instead, the Hamas government used the international aid funds they received to build miles and miles of war tunnels. Bad choice. They used Gaza as a launching pad for missile attacks and intifadas. More bad choices. 10/7/23 was a crossed red line. Now there is no more Gaza. The civilians will have to find somewhere else to go, and if their Arab neighbors won’t take them, then blame their Arab neighbors. They have been cast out for atrocious behavior. The Jihadis’ publicists want you to think that Israel has behaved badly. No doubt, the action by the IDF in Gaza was brutal. War is hell. In war, everywhere and always, soldiers act savagely. Americans did, at times, in Vietnam and Iraq. It is the reality of war. One lesson is that wars should not be started casually. Israel’s motive in this war is to put the war parties of its enemies out-of-business. It is close to succeeding now, with Hamas scattered, Hezbollah cut off from its sponsor, Iran, and Assad gone in Syria. Israel accomplished this with the “Joe Biden” regime pretending to support both sides in the conflict and finally having less influence than ever over the outcome. This is where things stand in December, 2025, but it is a very lively game-board, and there is much potential for new action and the entry of other players, which we’ll turn to now. Suddenly Syria Well, that was fast! Took twelve days (Nov 27 to Dec 8). Phhhhht!!! Assad, gone (to Russia). How’d that happen? Begin with the population problem I cited above: the region is poor. Expanding population against a contracting resource base will create great political and social stresses. Syria’s population grew dramatically from 7-million in 1972 to 22-million in 2022. Syria is a large country with distinct territories. Its easternmost region bordering Iraq and Turkey, Jazira, with the city of Raqqah, straddles the Euphrates River, a grain-growing corridor that used to feed the Syrian people. Many years of drought and botched irrigation projects have wrecked farming there. That was one factor in the mass migrations to Europe the past decade. Altogether, 6-million Syrians have fled the country since the Arab Spring in 2011. Jazira is also the location of Syria’s oil, which was grabbed by the US in 2019 when the country was racked by civil war. The region is a cultural crossroads, with a significant Kurdish population, bleeding over to Greater Kurdistan into Iraq and Turkey. Long story short: Assad’s Syria was badly weakened by food shortages, revenue shortage, and long-running civil war. He could barely pay his Army, and when the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel forces pushed across the country this fall, his soldiers melted away. HTS has its origins in al Qaeda, and al Qaeda has its origins in the US intel blob and its neocon strategists. You can be sure that the US was involved in rooting out Assad. As we have seen before, these kinds of operations tend to be double-edged swords, which end up stabbing America in the back later on. In this case, imagine that by chasing Assad out we may have succeeded in turning Syria into Jihad Central of the Middle East. As soon as HTS was in control of Damascus, the capital, Israel sent its air force in and destroyed every military target, airfield, tank park, munitions depot in Syria so that it would not fall into the hands of Hezbollah, Israel’s Iran-backed enemy. Israel controls a small area of southern Syria near the Golan Heights. Israel had already done severe damage to Hezbollah earlier this year by methodically killing off its leadership, one-by-one. The exploding pager op also did enormous operational damage to Hezbollah. For now, Israel benefits from broken Syria. Iran has lost its geographical conduit for arms supply to Hezbollah. The HTS forces are Sunni and Hezbollah’s sponsor, Iran, is Shia, with all the built-in conflict that implies. All of a sudden, Iran has lost its influence in this region adjacent to Israel, the enemy it declares it wants to “wipe off the map.” The Turks were involved in the Syrian regime change, too. Turkey currently hosts millions of Syrian refugees from the chaos of the Syrian civil war. The Kurds in Syria are also a problem, linked to the PKK, a terrorist terror group inside Turkey. Turkey’s pugnacious president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, pivots between its alliance with NATO, its off-and-on strategic relations with Russia, and the Arab world with its cultural affinities. Turkey is a disgruntled NATO. For decades, it was openly and often derided by other nations in the west as “the sick man of Europe.” Yet, it controls the entrance to the Black Sea, which has always been a problem for Russia — they have gone to war several times — though Russia engages in development projects in Turkey these days. Don’t forget, Turkey’s Ottoman Empire controlled all of the Middle East and North Africa from the 16th into the early 20th century and its influence ranged into Europe as well. This was the time long before oil wealth juiced the Arab world. Populations were sparse then across what was then called The Holy Land. The indigenous Arabs still wandered the desert on camels and lived in tents. The Ottoman Empire collapsed in the First World War, and what you see on-the-ground over much of the region are artificial boundaries created by the British after the war for administrative efficiency. Mr. Erdoğan may harbor ambitions for Turkey to once again play a larger role in world affairs. It has the region’s largest standing army. For now, Turkey and Erdoğan enjoy somewhat enhanced regional influence. The counter to him has been the US’s penchant for creating failed states via CIA involvement with rebel and Jihad movements. Mr. Trump has dropped the hint that he’s inclined to keep the US involvement in Syria to a minimum. He begins his administration with a declared aversion to all the world’s current wars. I’d forecast the HTS government not being able to control much of the country and a continued arc toward failed nationhood, with friction and violence between many of the different groups still residing there. I doubt Israel wants to try to control it, since it is an obvious quagmire. Russia appears to be bowing out of direct involvement, too, but is rumored to be negotiating with HTS to maintain its presence at the Khmeimim Air Base and the Tartus Naval Base. The macro trend in many parts of the Middle East is a return to pre-modernity. The last hundred years of jet planes and Range Rovers will look like a strange, anomalous blip in history. China Whatever is going on in China, her leaders like to play the long game, looking ahead decades, fifty and a hundred years, while everyone else struggles to strategize from month to month. It doesn’t mean that China comes out a winner, though. Some of that long game is just hubris and pretense. China has plenty of problems. It developed into an industrial colossus overnight, and now the global techno-industrial economy it found such a big role in is wobbling, especially in Europe, which puts a huge strain on China’s export-oriented system. Its financial architecture has always been janky because CCP is so entangled with the banks, bourses, and giant business enterprises — and if it doesn’t like how things are going, the Party just pretends that everything’s great. Nothing can be allowed to challenge the CCP’s dominance. Eventually things break, though, and the Party has to create some new narrative to explain the breakage. Lately there are rumors of mass layoffs, and of many young people leaving the cities to return to the countryside. The population is skewed to the elderly, due to the many years of China’s one-child policy. There is, of course, the disastrous real estate bubble which continues to destroy the savings of households, since many Chinese did not trust banks or stock and bond markets, and instead invested in enormous apartment complex property development projects have been failing one after another. The CCP’s response has been to screw down CCP control over the people and their activities ever-harder. The party fears its own people and no regime has a guarantee to go on forever. Expect turmoil there in 2025 as economic depression creeps across the global economy. America’s problems with China over trade and manufacturing are likely to be eclipsed in 2025 by the gross intrusions and subversions that China has been allowed to make in US institutions and our economy with the assistance of the “Joe Biden” administration. The Chinese have infiltrated America’s research universities, telecommunications (especially the hardware for cell phones and 5-G microwave transmission), US Intel, and the corporate sector, stealing intellectual property and our manufacturing secrets. And, of course, China has deeply involved itself in elected officialdom — the Biden family’s grifting operations and Rep Eric Swalwel’s romance with the spy Fang-Fang, among the most notorious. Senator Diane Feinstein employed a Chinese spy as her limo driver and go-fer for twenty years, including the years 2009 to 2015 when she chaired the Senate Intelligence Committee. You can be sure that Congress is well-larded with Chinese money and the influence it buys. Expect to find out a lot more in 2025. It is one of the things that binds elected officials so tightly to the DC blob. Two other matters involving China require urgent attention and the waiting Trump admin is already talking about them. One is China’s large, recent purchases of US land, both prime farmland and real estate around US military bases. It looks like they are going to be ejected from these holdings, with or without compensation is not known yet. We might see inquiries as to how these purchases were allowed to happen. The second issue is the number of Chinese nationals, especially men of military age, who came across the border along with the millions of other illegal aliens that “Joe Biden” allowed into the country with zero vetting. In fiscal year 2023 — Oct 1, 2022 to Sept. 30, 2023 — that number was about 24,100. In fiscal year 2024 it was 24,400. You should assume that US intel knows something about some of them, but not most of them, and what they are up to here. Several Chinese “police stations” — that is, offices set up in US cities to control Chinese migrants in the US — have been discovered and busted the last several years. And then there was the case of the Chinese high-altitude “weather balloon” (actually suspected of being a military surveillance balloon) that the “Joe Biden” admin allowed to sail completely across the USA from the Pacific to the Atlantic before shooting it down offshore of the Carolinas. These Chinese activities around the USA in aggregate suggest a kind of stealth warfare aimed at eventually getting control of the North American continent and its resources. This would be consistent with fifty-to-a-hundred-year long-range strategic thinking. And it was apparently working pretty nicely until the elections of 2024. It should be pretty alarming, but somehow the alarm bells have not gone off until a couple of months ago. Questions, anyone? I’d forecast that the US and China will not go to war with China over Taiwan in 2025. It is too much of a losing proposition for all concerned. Both China and the USA will be preoccupied with domestic problems and trade negotiations in the year ahead. A Few Other Odds and Ends Keep your eye on Argentina and its president, Javier Milei. Argentina was the world’s seventh-wealthiest nation in the early 1900s, and from 1930s on, after many coups, the country slid into chronic decline, badly aggravated by the long-running dictatorships of Juan and Eva Peron, and followed buy decades more revolving military coups, Peronista governments, and neoliberal finance mischief that left the resource-rich nation broke. Enter Javier Milei (Mee-lay) in 2023 as Argentina’s “anarcho-capitalist” president, who ran the promise to “take a chain saw” to the parasitical bureaucracy. In year one of his admin (essentially 2024), Milei got rid of 35,000 government employees and balanced the budget for the first time in decades. Inflation is finally falling. The Argentine people have awakened from the successive Peronista / neoliberal zombie comas they have been in for decades. Prediction: in 2025 Argentina sets the pace for the revolution in Western Civ government. Melei has another successful year in downsizing oppressive, useless bureaucracy. He begins a pioneering national nuclear power program. Argentina begins to emerge as a major player on the world stage. El Salvador is ruled, shall we say, by the eccentric and very interesting President Nayib Bukele-Ortiz (known simply as Bukele), now in his second term. His campaign against gang violence that made El Salvador such a savage place has produced spectacular results. His new “Terrorism Confinement Center” is one of the largest and most modern prisons in the world. It was built to house 20,000 inmates. He has arrested an estimated 86,000 hardened gang-aligned criminals. El Salvador has the highest incarceration rate in the world — which is what happens after allowing criminal gangs to hold the country hostage for decades. From 2022 to 2023, the murder rate fell by approximately 69-percent. (Data for 2024 is not complete.) Mr. Bukele enjoys a 91-percent favorable rating among voters. In 2021, El Salvador made Bitcoin a legal tender alongside the US dollar. Mr. Bukele’s “Bitcoin Law” requires businesses to accept Bitcoin in transactions. (As I said above, Bitcoin as “money” is deeply problematic.) The government itself has been purchasing Bitcoin as a long-term investment strategy. The verdict is out as to how Mr. Bukele’s fate might be chained to Bitcoin. For now, he has managed an epic turnaround in a country that had been lost to anarchy and crime for virtually all its previous existence. Forecast: El Salvador will continue to thrive due to Mr. Bukele’s Napoleonic organizational skills, even if Bitcoin falters. That is all I have for you in this end of year forecast for the year to come. I will be amazed to hear if any of you read this document to its bitter end. For each of you personally: do your best to lead purposeful, ethical lives in 2025. Refrain from trying to push other people around. Take care of your own bidness. . . And, above all, stay calm and cheerful! Tyler Durden Sat, 12/28/2024 - 10:30
Suez Canal Revenue Down 60%, But Red Sea Outlook May Be Changing
1735397700 from ZEROHEDGE
Suez Canal Revenue Down 60%, But Red Sea Outlook May Be Changing By Stuart Chris of FreightWaves Suez Canal revenue has plunged 60% this year, a loss of $7 billion for Egypt, amid attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and ongoing regional tensions. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in a statement blamed rising geopolitical challenges for the decline but offered no other details, according to published reports. Egypt collects tolls on vessels that transit the canal, a key route for maritime commerce. Since late 2023, Houthi fighters based in Yemen have disrupted global trade by attacking merchant and naval vessels in the Red Sea, just south of the canal. Most major container ship operators have diverted ships away from the region and on longer, more expensive voyages around the Horn of Africa, for services connecting Asia with the United States, Mideast and Mediterranean. The diversions have pushed up shipping rates and boosted carriers’ profits by billions of dollars. A multinational force of American and European military has patrolled the area, providing escorts for merchant vessels. The Iran-backed Houthis have said the missile and drone assaults are in solidarity with Palestinians in the Israel-Hamas war. But the attacks have recently tailed off as Iran grapples with its own internal issues, and the Houthis have increasingly targeted Israel itself. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria and withdrawal of Russia from ports there have added to the uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East. Some observers forecast a return of Red Sea shipping services as security improves, but likely not until the second half of 2025. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/28/2024 - 09:55
Europe: The Fall Of The Holy Renewable Empire
1735395600 from ZEROHEDGE
Europe: The Fall Of The Holy Renewable Empire Authored by Drieu Godefridi via the Gatestone Institute, Solar and wind power production falls drastically during unfavorable weather conditions. It happens, in fact, every year. This condition, however, now has far-reaching economic and environmental repercussions, revealing the flaws in an energy policy based on intermittent renewable energies. Why does Germany, while having one of the highest carbon footprints, now consume the most expensive electricity in Europe? How did the country lose its energy autonomy? Dependence on unreliable energy sources (wind, solar), combined with the hasty phase-out of nuclear power, has made Germany's electricity the most expensive in Europe and compromises the country's -- and ultimately the continent's -- energy autonomy. Pictured: An array of solar panels operated by the multinational energy company RWE, at the Hambacher Forst opencast lignite mine near Elsdorf, Germany, photographed on November 12, 2024. (Photo by Ina Fassbender/AFP via Getty Images) For the last fifteen years, Germany invested massively in solar and wind energy, while sabotaging its own nuclear power stations. By 2023, renewable energies accounted for 55% of electricity production in the country. In 2022, it was only 48%. The main contribution to renewable energy has comes from wind power, at 31% of total production, followed by solar power at 12%, biomass at 8%, and other renewable sources such as hydroelectricity for the remaining 3.4%. In 2024, renewable energy accounted for almost 60% of German electricity production in the first half of the year. This production level, however, is smoothed out over a given period and does not reflect moments of crisis such as the "Dunkelflaute." Dunkelflaute Literally "flat, dark calm," Dunkelflaute is characterized by a simultaneous lack of wind and sun in winter, when demand for electricity in Germany is at its highest. These episodes last from a few days to several weeks, with wind and solar production sometimes falling to less than 20% of their capacity, and sometimes nothing. On December 12 of this year, for example, German electricity production from wind and solar power was thirty times lower than the demand for it. Renewable policies would be bearable if they were based on a sustainable energy source -- indifferent to the weather -- such as nuclear power. In 2011, however, in the wake of the Fukushima disaster, Germany abruptly decided to phase out nuclear power, and gradually shut down fully operational plants. This decision reduced the country's capacity to produce stable, predictable electricity and instead made heating, cooling and so on cruelly vulnerable to fluctuations in renewable energy sources. In short, when there is neither wind nor sun in Germany, the lights go out. The phase-out of nuclear power has left Germany incapable of being self-sufficient in energy, especially during Dunkelflaute. The country imports electricity on a massive scale from France, Denmark and Poland, and has to use coal and lignite to produce electricity. Germany's massive imports of electricity also lead to colossal increases in electricity prices for its neighbors. The prices are indeed staggering. In 2024, the household price of electricity in Germany was the highest in Europe, at €400/MWh, reaching peaks of €900/MWh during Dunkelflaute episodes, compared to a much lower European average. By comparison, the average price in nuclear-powered France and Finland was €250/MWh over the same period (2024). And, in the United States, rates are 30% lower than in France. How is all that "sustainable" for Europe? But this is "for the planet", right? Not even close. Despite its commitment to so-called green energies, Germany still has a high carbon footprint due to its increased reliance on coal and lignite to make up for energy shortfalls. In 2024, the country remains the second-largest emitter of CO2 per unit of energy produced in Europe, with a significant proportion of electricity coming from fossil sources. Ten times more CO2 per unit of energy produced than France. Economic and geopolitical repercussions Germany's high electricity prices are leading to the relocation of its industry, as companies look for sites where energy costs are more affordable. How can you stay viable when you pay three times more for electricity than your competitors? (Natural gas prices are even worse: five times more expensive in Europe than in the USA.) Whole swathes of Germany's proud industry are collapsing. We only remember the big names -- VW, BASF, Mercedes-Benz -- but every big company that disappears or downsizes takes with it a myriad of small and medium-sized enterprises that end up collapsing along with it. Energy-intensive sectors such as metallurgy and chemicals are particularly hard hit. Finally, Germany's increased dependence on its neighbors for energy supplies has been creating tensions in Europe. High electricity prices in Germany are being passed on to neighboring countries, making electricity unaffordable there and generating growing frustration. Discussions are emerging in Europe about withdrawing from certain energy agreements, particularly those relating to electricity imports. In short, the Dunkelflaute is the symptom of a profound energy crisis, caused by an ideological, authoritarian, irrational and failed energy transition. Dependence on unreliable energy sources (wind, solar), combined with the hasty phase-out of nuclear power, has made Germany's electricity the most expensive in Europe and compromises the country's -- and ultimately the continent's -- energy autonomy. The consequences are manifold: environmental, with high CO2 emissions; economic, with industry in steep decline, and geopolitical, with Germany's neighbors fed up with its failing energy diktat. Given Germany's demographic and economic weight, this latest German misstep is proving to be yet another European catastrophe. Drieu Godefridi is a jurist (University Saint-Louis, University of Louvain), philosopher (University Saint-Louis, University of Louvain) and PhD in legal theory (Paris IV-Sorbonne). He is an entrepreneur, CEO of a European private education group and director of PAN Medias Group. He is the author of The Green Reich (2020). Tyler Durden Sat, 12/28/2024 - 09:20
Mississippi Has Led The US In Motor Vehicle Deaths Since 2014
1735393500 from ZEROHEDGE
Mississippi Has Led The US In Motor Vehicle Deaths Since 2014 Despite advancements in car safety technology and stricter traffic laws, driving remains one of the leading causes of preventable deaths in the United States. In 2022, 46,027 people died in motor vehicle crashes in the United States—a rate of 13.8 per 100,000 people. This map, via Visual Capitalist's Kayla Zhu, visualizes the number of motor vehicle deaths per 100,000 people by state in 2022. The figures come from the National Safety Council, with data pulled from the National Center for Health Statistics and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Mississippi Has the Highest Number of Fatal Crashes With 26 vehicle deaths per 100,000 people—nearly double the national average—the southern state of Mississippi has long been the worst state for fatal vehicle accidents per capita. Rank State Motor vehicle deaths per 100,000 people 1 Mississippi 26.0 2 New Mexico 23.0 3 South Carolina 21.6 4 Arkansas 21.4 5 Louisiana 20.7 6 Montana 20.6 7 Alabama 20.5 8 Oklahoma 19.3 9 Tennessee 19.0 10 Wyoming 18.9 11 Arizona 18.6 12 South Dakota 18.4 13 Missouri 18.0 14 Georgia 17.5 15 Kentucky 17.4 16 North Carolina 17.3 17 Florida 16.7 18 West Virginia 16.3 19 Alaska 15.9 20 Kansas 15.6 21 Texas 15.3 22 Delaware 15.2 23 Indiana 14.8 24 Oregon 14.5 25 Maine 14.5 26 Colorado 14.3 27 Nebraska 14.2 28 Idaho 14.0 29 North Dakota 13.9 30 Nevada 13.8 31 California 12.9 32 Virginia 12.5 33 Vermont 12.5 34 Michigan 12.2 35 Iowa 12.0 36 Ohio 11.9 37 Wisconsin 11.2 38 New Hampshire 11.0 39 Washington 10.8 40 Illinois 10.7 41 Connecticut 10.7 42 Pennsylvania 10.3 43 Maryland 10.2 44 Minnesota 9.7 45 Utah 9.6 46 District of Columbia 8.8 47 Hawaii 7.8 48 New Jersey 7.7 49 Rhode Island 7.0 50 New York 7.0 51 Massachusetts 6.9 Speeding, drunk driving, and distracted driving are some of the most common reasons for car accidents in Mississippi. In 2016, drunk driving accounted for 18% of total traffic deaths in the state. Additionally, as a predominantly rural state, accidents on Mississippi’s poorly-maintained rural roads usually happen far from hospitals, delaying life-saving measures. Specifically, driving at night on Mississippi’s rural roads can often be deadly, as seen in this graphic. In Mississippi, as well as in second-ranked South Carolina, which also has a substantial rural population, the number of fatal traffic accidents peaked between 8 to 9 p.m. While 2022 saw the first decrease (-2%) in motor vehicle deaths since 2019, over the past decade, motor vehicle deaths have increased by 30%, according to data from the National Safety Council. Which country is the deadliest place to drive? See which nations top the list in this visualization on Voronoi, Visual Capitalist’s new data discovery app. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/28/2024 - 08:45
Were Ukraine's Reckless Drone Attacks Responsible For The Azerbaijan Airlines Tragedy
1735391400 from ZEROHEDGE
Were Ukraine's Reckless Drone Attacks Responsible For The Azerbaijan Airlines Tragedy Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack, CNN cited an unnamed US official to report that the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 in Kazakhstan, which was traveling from Baku to Grozny before suddenly veering off course towards the Caspian Sea, might have been caused by Russian air defenses mistakenly firing on it. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cautioned against indulging in speculation and to wait until the investigation is concluded, but his advice obviously went unheeded by the US, which has an interest in shaping the narrative. In this case, it wants to absolve Ukraine of responsibility after it turned out that it had launched long-range drone strikes on Grozny around the time of the incident, which could have either led to Russian air defenses mistakenly firing on the plane or the shrapnel from a destroyed drone could have hit it instead. RT reported that the preliminary investigation hypothesized that a bird strike was to blame, but footage of the crashed plane appearing pockmarked prompted speculation that something else happened. The viral spread of CNN’s report, which carries an air of authority for some since it cites an unnamed US official, necessitates that it be challenged despite Peskov cautioning against any speculation. The sequence of events that unfolded does indeed suggest that something happened in the air on the way to Grozny that resulted in the plane suddenly veering off course towards the Caspian, but the post-crash footage suggests that it might have been hit by drone debris instead of a direct air defense hit. Regardless of whichever explanation one deems to be more credible, the point is that both were caused by Ukraine’s reckless drone attacks against Grozny, which is far away from the special operation zone. This week’s weren’t the first, and the reason why that city has been targeted likely has to do with Ukraine’s belief that these attacks can spark political unrest in that formerly separatist region, thus opening up a so-called “second front” for diverting Russia’s attention and forces from the primary one. A supplementary objective can be intuited by what a top Ukrainian official told CNN in their report. Andrey Kovalenko, who’s the head of the “Center for Countering Disinformation” that’s part of the National Security and Defense Council, told them that “Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny but failed to do so.” In other words, these drone attacks were deliberately meant to create an unsafe environment, which would either coerce Russia into closing its airspace or cause a tragedy. Closing its entire southern airspace indefinitely as a precaution due to the long range of Ukrainian drones would have objectively been an overreaction with incalculable financial costs just like if the US would have done the same in response to mysterious drone sightings over the East Coast earlier this month. Nevertheless, precisely because Russia didn’t do so, Ukraine and its media allies will now predictably claim that this was irresponsible after what happened even though Kiev is to blame as explained. What Russia needs to do as soon as possible is push back against this emerging information warfare narrative by maximally emphasizing how reckless it is for Ukraine to carry out drone attacks so far away from the special operation zone, let alone against civilian infrastructure like local airports. Pandora’s Box of speculation was already opened by the US and Ukraine so there’s no need for Russia to restrain itself from injecting its own speculation, albeit that which is much more reasonable, into the global discourse. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/28/2024 - 08:10
Hapag-Lloyd US Port Strike Surcharges To Go Into Effect Same Day As Trump Inauguration
1735389300 from ZEROHEDGE
Hapag-Lloyd US Port Strike Surcharges To Go Into Effect Same Day As Trump Inauguration By Stuart Chris of FreightWaves Ocean container carrier Hapag-Lloyd announced two surcharges ahead of a potential strike by unionized longshore workers at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports in January. The Work Disruption Surcharge (WDS) and Work Interruption Destination Surcharge (WID) are effective Jan. 20, 2025, in the event of a strike, the German company said in an announcement on its website. “This surcharge covers additional costs from labor disruptions, strikes, slowdowns, unrest, congestion, and other unforeseen events that may delay operations and incur extra handling, storage, and feeder service costs,” the announcement stated. The surcharges take effect on Jan. 20, the same day President-elect Donald Trump will be inaugurated and just after the current longshore contract extension expires Jan. 15. .rump earlier this month publicly backed the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) in its contract dispute with port employers represented by the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). After bargaining resumed following a three-day strike in October, the union broke off negotiations in November, charging ocean carriers and terminal operators were trying to eliminate union jobs by forcing provisions for automated container-handling into a new contract. Employers fired back, saying semiautomated container cranes were desperately needed to improve efficiency and make U.S. ports globally competitive, which they claim will create more dockworker jobs. “We want to avoid another strike, and hope that our employers represented by United States Maritime Alliance will respect our demands for a fair and decent contract,” wrote ILA President Harold Daggett in a Christmas message to members posted on the union’s website. The WDS is $850 per 20-foot container and $1,700 per 40-foot box, covering all equipment types. The surcharge covers imports from all ports in North Europe, the Mediterranean, Africa, the Middle East, the Indian Subcontinent, Oceania and Latin America to the U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports. The WID is also $850 per 20-foot, and $1,700 per 40-foot, containers of all types. It applies to imports from all ports in East Asia-Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Macau, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and the Philippines to the U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports. Hapag-Lloyd said the surcharges will be waived if no disruptions take place. They do not apply to containers already on the water or in terminals before Jan. 20. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/28/2024 - 07:35
Germany's Economic And Political Suicide
1735387200 from ZEROHEDGE
Germany's Economic And Political Suicide Authored by Tilak Doshi via The Daily Sceptic, It’s that festive time of the year when interesting tales get told around a fireplace. So here goes (minus the fireplace). Once upon a time there lived a country that was the envy of the world. It was among the world’s pre-eminent producers of manufactured goods. From chemicals and pharmaceuticals to precision engineering and the brewing of beer, it was second to none. Its people’s work skills, industriousness and discipline became the national hallmark of civilisational success. The country gained fame and fortune in bringing the luxuries of fine automobiles to the world’s rich and aspiring middle classes. Alas, a blight visited that once great country not more than a score of years ago, though its destructive seed had been planted earlier. It was not some external force or act of God. Rather it was a sickness of the mind, a debilitating disease of the soul, that vexed that country’s ruling class. In restless search for virtue, the country’s rulers paid obeisance to the Goddess Gaia and promised the nation’s blood and treasure to satiate her inviolable sovereignty over her earthly domains. This, then, is a tale of woe and misery. This Christmas shall not have been one of unalloyed merry times and good cheer. And while beer will have been drunk and dinners eaten in many a hearth and eating place, the lifeblood of that nation shall be constricted and its breathing blocked by a cursed phlegm as normal life resumes in the New Year. Within the fateful score of years of becoming afflicted by the primordial cult of Gaia, the world’s envy has now become a sad basket case. Its economy has been tarnished as “the sick man of Europe”. The beginning of the end of the German miracle While the travails of Germany along with the economic stagnation of Europe as a whole have been apparent for some years now, the spate of dire headlines have gathered pace in recent weeks as the coalition government collapsed. “Behind Germany’s Political Turmoil, a Stagnating Economy” — New York Times (December 17th) “Germany Is Unraveling Just When Europe Needs It Most” – Bloomberg (December 15th) “Europe’s Economic Apocalypse Is Now” – Politico (December 19th) If Europe – and its economic powerhouse Germany – remains on its current trajectory, its future, Politico says, “will also be Italian: that of a decaying, if beautiful, debt-ridden, open-air museum for American and Chinese tourists”. The economic rot induced by the adoption of Energiewende policies for the “energy transition” in 2010 resulted ultimately in the recession of the German economy in the last two years. Among the manifestations of this rot are the growth of corporate bankruptcies in double digits, soaring layoffs as the Federal Employment Agency said that the unemployment figure could exceed the three million mark for the first time in 10 years at the beginning of 2025, and the crown jewel of German industry, its automative sector, announcing massive job cuts. According to a recent poll, 40% of industrial companies are currently considering reducing their production in Germany or relocating it abroad due to the energy situation; among industrial companies with more than 500 employees, more than half are now considering this. High labour costs, caused by the myriad regulations of a hyperactive administrative state, and among the world’s highest energy prices brought about by its Energiewende folly, have led to the nation’s de-industrialisation. Germany’s governing coalition collapsed after Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, plunging Europe’s largest economy into political chaos. This occurred barely hours after Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory triggered existential questions about the future of the Continent’s economy and its energy security. Mr. Trump – a climate sceptic who has promised to bring the U.S. out of the UN’s Paris Agreement and its financial commitments for large scale transfers of funds to developing countries – will pull the rug out from under the EU’s famed if quixotic climate leadership. Europe’s economic implosion is self-induced. Its ruling elites over-tax and over-regulate the private sector and obsess with promoting unreliable renewable energy to replace fossil and nuclear fuels in its crusade to ‘save the planet’ from an alleged impending climate apocalypse. Its attempt to blame Russia’s President Putin for high energy prices is hollow and self-serving. Perhaps most revealing of Europe’s regulatory hubris is the Qatari Energy Minister’s recent statement that “I am not bluffing”. He warned that Qatar, one of the world’s largest natural gas suppliers, would cease gas exports to the EU if the bloc’s countries imposed penalties under recently adopted legislation on “sustainability due diligence”. For Europe to tell the world that it would punish foreign countries that did not buy into their “sustainability” beliefs might seem to most non-European observers as the height of arrogance. But such is the delusionary might of the Gaia cult. The EU’s “Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive”, which entered into force in July, allows for fines of up to 5% of a company’s annual global revenue “if the management fails to address adverse human rights or environmental impacts”. Bumptious Brussels bureaucrats seem to believe that their ideas of “sustainability” command universal acceptance. This, in a world where China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and other populous developing countries, accounting for most of the world’s population, are busy expanding their capacity to mine coal and other fossil fuels so as to afford their citizens access to affordable and reliable energy. Back to barbarism “Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice: all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things.” So said Adam Smith, the great sage of political economy, over 250 years ago. Germany has shown that the converse may also be true. To go from opulence to poverty and potential barbarism is but a short road, assured by the burden of high taxes in service of an alleged climate crisis, and an intolerable administration of “climate justice” that demands suffocating regulations on the private sector. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/28/2024 - 07:00
David Stockman On The Syrian Fiasco... A Case Of The "Empire First" Folly In Spades
1735360200 from ZEROHEDGE
David Stockman On The Syrian Fiasco... A Case Of The "Empire First" Folly In Spades Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com, If there was ever a moment that laid bare the utter stupidity and futility of Washington’s Empire First policy it surely emerged in the smoking ruins of Syria. The latter was the desultory culmination of Washington’s 13-years-long effort to destroy the legitimate government of Syria on the purported grounds that Assad was a brutal tyrant and plunderer of the country’s paltry wealth. The fact is, he probably was just that. And might well have been among the worst of the dozens of tyrants who today oppress their citizens in nations large and small around the world. But then again, did God Almighty anoint Washington as some kind of planetary Good Shepard charged with bringing just and kind rule to all the peoples of the planet? We think not. Indeed, maintenance of a sustainable, prosperous, free constitutional Republic requires fidelity to the opposite— a regime of small, solvent government including on the Pentagon side of the Potomac. Accordingly, the sole end of foreign policy should be safeguarding the security and liberty of the homeland, not proctoring the governing etiquette of rulers halfway way around the globe that pose no military threat whatsoever to America’s homeland security. Yet Washington has seen fit during the last decade to pump-in upwards of $40 billion of overt and covert military aid, economic support and humanitarian assistance to a plethora of opposition Syrian forces for no discernible reason of homeland security. To the contrary, the expenditure of all this treasure and political capital was designed for no purpose other than to effect Regime Change in Damascus and to eject the Assad government from its control over the what were the remaining white areas of the Syrian map below as of just a few weeks back. Yet the color coded regions all around what is now the vacuum of Assad’s fall tell you all you need to know about the sheer folly of this enterprise and why in truth Washington has mid-wifed yet another failed state; and has done so once again on the pretext of fighting terrorism—this time the ragged band of ISIS jihadists who briefly planted their black flags and brutal rule in the dusty towns of the Upper Euphrates centered in Raqqah, as roughly depicted by the purple area of the map. The truth, however, is that the white areas including the Damascus region previously controlled by the Assad government were the true bulwark against a resurgence of the ISIS head-choppers, who had emerged in 2013-2014 from the ashes of Washington’s failed regime change intervention in Iraq. So even if the choice was between the lesser of two evils, anyone with his head-screwed on straight could see that bolstering, or at least tacitly tolerating, the secularist, pluralist Alawite regime in Damascus was far preferable to the ISIS Caliphate fanatics. Stated differently, one failed Regime Change fiasco in Iraq surely warranted second thoughts about continued pursuit of a second attempt at Regime Change next door in Syria. After all, the menace of ISIS which had afflicted eastern Syria was the spawn of Washington’s disastrous intervention against Saddam Hussein. Yet like in the case of Assad, Hussein had posed no threat to America’s homeland security whatsoever but was nevertheless treated to the “shock and awe” of massive military attack and the gallows because he was alleged to be a plundering tyrant who wouldn’t play nice with the greedy Emirs who ruled the shared deserts and oilfields next door. Alas, the Empire First geniuses on the banks of the Potomac didn’t get any of this. Their swell plan was to get rid of both the ISIS jihadists and the Assad regime at the same time. But in attempting to do so they ended up creating two new militarized monsters out of the economic dislocations and tribal clashes that resulted from the very civil war they had unleashed. To that end, the previous ISIS-ruled territory in purple is now controlled by the US funded Kurdish SDF militias (Syrian Democratic Forces). The latter, of course, are the mortal enemy of Washington’s ostensible NATO ally next door in Turkey, which had been fighting its own Kurdish insurgents for decades. Indeed, owing to that threat, Turkey has supported and funded the anti-Kurd SNA (Syrian National Army), which occupies the border lands depicted in yellow on the map. A few years ago, however, the SNA was called the FSA (Free Syrian Army), which was a CIA-supported and operated brainchild of the late Senator John McCain, who never met a country in the middle east that he didn’t wish to invade and occupy. Meanwhile, with two new US-funded militias competing for military dominance, the third Syrian anti-government force comprised of the jihadist factions hadn’t been eliminated, either. That latter illusion, of course, had been triumphally claimed by Trump when Washington bombed Raqqah and surrounding areas to smithereens in 2017, and also finished off its terrorist leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in 2019. Like the SNA, however, the jihadist contingent had simply shape-shifted. Twice. What is today HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham), which is ostensibly in control of the red-colored corridor from Aleppo down to Damascus, was previously known as the Nusra Front. That’s back when its current leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, was a strict jihadist. In 2011 he had been sent to eastern Syria to foment an uprising by his mentor and terrorist, the aforementioned al-Baghdadi. Both had been graduates of what amounted to the massive prison-based training school for Sunni jihadists at Camp Bucca in Iraq, later dubbed as “America’s Jihadi University”. The latter 20,000-prisoner monstrosity had been stood up by the clueless proconsuls Washington had sent to Iraq after Saddam’s demise and who soon needed a massive human storage facility for the fruits of their misbegotten de-bathification campaign. As it happened, by the end of the decade Washington had soured on its Iraq liberation enterprise and was attempting to extricate itself from its failed multi-trillion misadventure. In conjunction with this wind-down it undertook to substantially empty this bulging prison in what became known as the “Great Prison Release of 2009,” freeing 5,700 high-security detainees from Bucca Prison. Among these was Baghdadi and Julani. While the former organized and led the Sunni uprising in Mosul and Anbar province of Western Iraq, the Nusra Front was established as a separate entity in Syria by al-Julani. Initially, it was an offshoot of al-Qaeda in Iraq, but in April 2013 al-Baghdadi announced that the Nusra Front had merged with ISIS to form the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). However, al-Julani and the Nusra Front rejected this merger and went their separate way, taking on a role as an independent jihadist force based in western Syria with strongholds in Idlib and Aleppo. Thereafter his Nusra Front spearheaded the 2015 conquest of this region under the banner of Jaish al-Fatah (the Army of Conquest). The latter was, in turn, described at the time by Foreign Policy magazine as a wonderful “synergy” of jihadists and western arms. Years later, US official Brett McGurk didn’t hesitate to label al-Julani’s Idlib base as “the largest Al-Qaeda safe haven since 9/11.” Of course, the crucial role of US weapons and strategic aid in fostering this jihadist success went unmentioned. So why did the US provide what one analyst called a “cataract of weaponry” to Nusra Front, just the same? An August 2012 Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, infamously written under the auspices of General Michael Flynn, let the cat out of the bag quite dramatically. It revealed, in fact, that the Washington neocons and hegemonists had determined to support the establishment of a “Salafist principality” in eastern Syria and western Iraq as part of the effort to depose president Bashar al-Assad and divide the country. The DIA report said a radical religious mini-state exactly of the sort later established by ISIS as its “caliphate” was the US goal, even while admitting that the so-called Syrian revolution seeking to topple Assad’s government was being driven by “Salafists, the Muslim Brotherhood, and al-Qaeda.” Indeed, as indicated above, the seeds of this Salafist principality had been planted when the then ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, had dispatched Julani to Syria in August 2011. Prominent Lebanese journalist Radwan Mortada, who was embedded with Al-Qaeda fighters from Lebanon in Syria, met Julani in the central Syrian city of Homs at this time. Mortada informed his readers that Julani was being hosted by the Farouq Brigades, an FSA faction based in the city, which was a sectarian Salafist group that included fighters who had fought for Zarqawi’s brutal Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) after the US invasion. That’s right. The current liberators of Syria were legatees of the brutes who were flushed out of the woodwork by Washington’s foolish “Shock and Awe” campaign in Iraq way back in 2003. And true to form, a few months after receiving his assignment from al-Baghdadi, Julani and his fighters entered the war against the Syrian government by carrying out multiple terror attacks. In Damascus during December 2011 Julani sent suicide bombers to target the Syrian government’s General Security Directorate, killing 44, including civilians and security personnel. Two weeks later, in January 2012, Julani sent another suicide bomber to detonate explosives near a bus in the Midan district of Damascus, killing some 26 people. These bloody doings coincident with the establishment of the “Support Front for the People of the Levant,” or the Nusra Front, was revealed after a videotape was provided to journalist Mortada showing Julani and other masked men announcing the group’s existence and claiming responsibility for the attacks. Thus, such is the lineage of the leader and group which purportedly “liberated” Syria from the clutches of the Assad family. In any event, when the Raqqah-based epicenter of ISIL was demolished after 2017, the Nusra Front hung on, changing its name to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in October 2017. This rebranding was part of an effort to distance itself from al-Qaeda and to restructure the group by merging with several other jihadist factions. For several years HTS remained contained in its narrow Idlib territorial base, even as it was assaulted by constant attacks from the forces of Assad and his Russian allies in the area. In effect, they were doing god’s work taking on the real enemy of civilization. Nevertheless, al-Julani persevered, recently reinventing himself as Ahmed al-Sharaa—which is his real name. He now wears an even shorter beard than in the second picture below and sometimes even dons a tie, while claiming to be a “diversity friendly” pluralist friend of all Syrians—Christians, Alawites, Druze etc. That is, the very former infidel enemies of the Caliphate who al-Julani had previously decreed were to be put to death on the ancient orders of the Prophet himself. In short, Syria is now destined to become even a worse mess than Libya became after it was liberated by Hilary Clinton in 2011. As is evident from the above, you actually need a roster-sheet to even begin to grasp the madness now unfolding there, but the always astute Moon of Alabama has summarized the state of play as well as can be done: It is now highly likely that the country will fall apart. Outside and inside actors will try to capture and/or control as many parts of the cadaver as each of them can. Years of chaos and strife will follow from that. Israel is grabbing another large amount of Syrian land. It has taken control of the Syrian city of Quneitra, along with the towns of Al-Qahtaniyah and Al-Hamidiyah in the Quneitra region. It has also advanced into the Syrian Mount Hermon and is now positioned just 30 kilometers from (and above) the Syrian capital. It is also further demilitarizing Syria by bombing every Syria military storage site in its reach. Air defense positions and heave equipment are its primary targets. For years to come Syria, or whatever may evolve from it, will be completely defenseless against outside attacks. Israel is for now the big winner in Syria. But with restless Jihadists now right on its border it remains to be seen for how long that will hold. The U.S. is bombing the central desert of Syria. It claims to strike ISIS but the real target is any local (Arab) resistance which could prevent a connection between the U.S. controlled east of Syria with the Israel controlled south-west. There may well be plans to further build this connection into an Eretz Israel, a Zionist controlled state “from the river to the sea”. Turkey has had and has a big role in the attack on Syria. It is financing and controlling the ‘Syrian National Army’ (previously the Free Syrian Army), which it is mainly using to fight Kurdish separatists in Syria. There are some 3 to 5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey which the wannabe-Sultan Erdogan wants, for domestic political reasons, to return to Syria. The evolving chaos will not permit that. Turkey had nurtured and pushed the al-Qaeda derived Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take Aleppo. It did not expect it to go any further. The fall of Syria is now becoming a problem for Turkey as the U.S. is taking control of it. Washington will try to use HTS for its own interests which are, said mildly, not necessary compatible with whatever Turkey may want to do. A primary target for Turkey are the Kurdish insurgents within Turkey and their support from the Kurds in Syria. Organized as the Syrian Democratic Forces the Kurds are sponsored and controlled by the United States. The SDF are already fighting Erdogan’s SNA and any further Turkish intrusion into Syria will be confronted by them. The SDF, supported by the U.S. occupation of east-Syria, is in control of the major oil, gas and wheat fields in the east of the country. Anyone who wants to rule in Damascus will need access to those resources to be able to finance the state. Despite having a $10 million award on its head HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani is currently played up by western media as the unifying and tolerant new leader of Syria. But his HTS is itself a coalition of hard-line Jihadists from various countries. There is little left to loot in Syria and as soon as those resources run out the fighting within HTS will begin. Will al-Golani be able to control the sectarian urges of the comrades when these start to plunder the Shia and Christian shrines of Damascus? During the last years Russia was less invested in the Assad government than it seemed. It knew that Assad had become a mostly useless partner. The Russia Mediterranean base in Khmeimim in Latakia province is its springboard into Africa. There will be U.S. pressure on any new leadership in Syria to kick the Russians out. However any new leadership in Syria, if it is smart, will want to keep the Russians in. It is never bad to have an alternative choice should one eventually need one. Russia may well stay in Latakia for years to come. With the fall of Syria Iran has lost the major link in its axis of resistance against Israel. Its forward defenses, provided by Hizbullah in Lebanon, are now in ruins. Then again, the question recurs. What exactly was the point of wrecking another tiny, mostly land-locked country in the middle east with a population of just 20 million people, a GDP of only $40 billion, a per capita income of barely $2,000, no significant natural resources beyond a 2.5 billion barrel pittance of oil reserves (equal to about 30 days of global oil production), no significant steel or other industrial capacity, no tech sector, no capability to project any military power whatsoever beyond its own borders and a consumer sector so devastated by the Washington-instigated civil wars that total auto sales in 2022 were 478 units? That’s right. No zeros missing! At the end of the day, not even Washington is stupid enough to waste $40 billion on that. What has really been going on, therefore, is that by the lights of the Empire Firsters Assad had to be removed because he had the wrong allies and the wrong neighbors. The demonization about his tyranny and plunder was just a cover story for the real objective, which was undermining his Iranian ally. As a minority Alawite, which is a branch of Shiite Islam, Assad had aligned with his Shiite kin in Tehran and permitted Syrian territory to be used by the latter to transport arms and materiale to Iran’s Hezbollah allies in southern Lebanon. In turn, that was fully within Syria’s sovereign rights—especially since Hezbollah played a leading role in the coalition government of Lebanon. So destroying this Shiite nexus was the real reason for the relentless Washington war on Assad, and its incessant embrace and financing of all of the unsavory flotsam and jetsam which percolated up from Syria’s devastating civil war. Still again, however, there is no way that the homeland security of America was imperiled either by the Shiite-based Iran-Syria-Hezbollah alliance or the fact that one sovereign state member of that alliance (Syria) permitted its territory to used to transport weaponry and materiale. The only possible reason for Washington’s two decade folly in Syria, therefore, is the proposition that Iran is an existential threat to the liberty and security of the American homeland—way over here 6,400 miles from Tehran. That’s a ludicrous joke, to say the least. Iran’s GDP of $400 billion is equal to just 1.5% or five days worth of US GDP. Likewise, its $25 billion military budget is just 2.5% of the $1 trillion monster domiciled in the Pentagon. Even more to the point, Iran’s tiny Navy consists of 67 mostly coastal patrol boats and fast attack crafts, none of which can operate much outside of the Persian Gulf. Also, it has no long-range aircraft and its longest range missile, the Soumar cruise missile, is non-nuclear and has a maximum range of 1850 miles. That is to say, it can barely reach the European parts of the Mediterranean basin, and can’t hit at all cities like Paris, Berlin, Copenhagen, London, Stockholm or Oslo—-to say nothing of even remotely landing on our side of the Atlantic moat. Finally, Iran is not a rogue nuclear power or wanna be nuclear threat—even according to the 17 Deep State intelligence agencies which write the so-called NIEs or National Intelligence Estimates. These NIEs have said time and again that Iran abandoned even its nuclear research program in 2003, abided by the Obama nuke deal to the letter prior to Trump’s unilaterally shit-canning it in 2018, and even now is only enriching modest amounts of uranium to legal levels as is its prerogative as a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. In short, Iran is Bibi Netanyahu’s political pinata, not an enemy of America’s liberty and security. If Washington were not in the Empire First business and, most especially, not in the entangling alliance business in which allies and clients drag America into conflicts that have no direct bearing on its homeland security, Washington would have all along been following Thomas Jefferson’s advice: That is, it would have pursued peaceful commerce with Iran and Syria, not punished them with crippling sanctions and endless attacks on their own sovereignty and right to pursue foreign policy arrangements by their own best lights. Finally, what would a legitimate America First foreign policy now do? Simple. It would close the middle east bases, send the Fifth Fleet back to homeport in America, lift the sanctions on Iran and Syria and resume peaceful commerce with one and all willing nations in the region. * * * The amount of money the US government spends on foreign aid, wars, the so-called intelligence community, and other aspects of foreign policy is enormous and ever-growing. It’s an established trend in motion that is accelerating, and now approaching a breaking point. It could cause the most significant disaster since the 1930s. Most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video with all the details. Click here to watch it now. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 23:30
AI Is A National Security Imperative
1735358400 from ZEROHEDGE
AI Is A National Security Imperative Authored by Monica Farrow via American Greatness, Many people forget that the Department of Defense conceived the internet as a secure and dynamic communication tool. Still, it took the private sector to turn it into an economic powerhouse that has revolutionized commerce and political discussion and transformed how people connect, work, and share information globally. Many argue that artificial intelligence’s impact on our society and economy will be greater than that of the internet, both economically and in national security. This public-private partnership can unlock AI’s potential, allowing the nation to protect itself while enriching itself. That’s why the Department of Defense, which has said that AI “will change society and, ultimately, the character of war,” wants to expand the use of artificial intelligence (AI). This venture will advance America’s defense and ensure the United States remains the world leader in technological modernization. However, while the Defense Department desperately seeks to develop and expand AI, the Department of Justice has declared war on it. It is taking legal actions that threaten to smother the industry, which is still in its infancy. AI technology is already touching every facet of modern life. For national defense, AI has the potential to analyze vast amounts of intelligence in real time, assist in decision-making, and help with battlefield strategy. The Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for nuclear matters recently noted that AI’s adoption will be a “considerable advancement in our ability to safeguard critical assets.” The Defense Department’s investment in AI is also about maintaining parity—or ideally, superiority—against adversaries like China and Russia, who aggressively pursue their AI initiatives. Beijing has made no secret of its ambition to become the global leader in AI and is funneling billions into various military and civilian applications. It aims to lead the world in AI by 2030 so it can obtain “intelligence supremacy,” allowing it to leapfrog the technological capabilities of the United States. If the U.S. fails to match or surpass these efforts, it risks falling behind in the arms race of the 21st century. AI is not just about military applications. The technology underpins advancements in healthcare, finance, transportation, and countless other industries and has been called the “most important technology of any lifetime.” Leading in AI ensures that American companies drive innovation, which creates jobs and fosters economic growth. Just as the internet was initially incubated by research and development for military applications, the same holds for AI. We need a robust partnership between government initiatives and private sector innovation to secure America’s AI development and application leadership. Many industries, such as tourism, travel, and hospitality, have adopted AI and are already implementing it. Hotels and airlines employ AI algorithms for dynamic pricing, which adapts rates based on up-to-the-minute supply and demand analysis. When demand is low, AI suggests lower pricing to help fill the capacity of hotels and airline flights. Yet, despite already being in everyday use, AI has come under fire from government regulators and bureaucrats. A federal court case in Nevada has become ground zero in this fight as hotels that use AI to offer pricing options are being sued with the wholesale support of the Department of Justice. Similarly, the DOJ has targeted RealPage, accusing the company’s software, which assists homeowners and landlords in determining what price to offer customers, as being illegal. These actions by the DOJ are incredibly short-sighted. Any business model that suggests both price reductions and price increases tied to supply and demand are the signs of a healthy, competitive marketplace is all about, not an antitrust violation. If the DOJ’s continued actions against algorithmic AI are successful, their actions risk setting a dangerous precedent by discouraging industries from leveraging AI’s full potential. Who will invest in technology when it risks potential litigation by the federal government? The stakes are too high for the United States to fail. If China dominates AI development, U.S. companies can become sidelined in global markets, and American workers could lose jobs in cutting-edge industries, not to mention watch ethical standards get shaped by regimes that prioritize state control over personal freedoms. AI is a foundational piece of our future vitality. It makes no sense for one government agency, the Department of Defense, to invest heavily in technology while another, the Department of Justice, threatens to smother it in the crib. Our security and prosperity depend on AI’s growth, adoption, and use. A cohesive national strategy is essential, where innovation is nurtured, not stifled, ensuring that AI can flourish to secure America’s future economically and militarily. * * * Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 23:00
Finnish Commandos Seize Russia-Linked Ship After Undersea Cable Cut
1735356600 from ZEROHEDGE
Finnish Commandos Seize Russia-Linked Ship After Undersea Cable Cut Finland has seized the ship which is being accused of cutting of an undersea cable connecting electricity to Estonia, allegedly on behalf of Russia, given that the vessel was carrying Russian oil. Finnish authorities and Western officials have described the damage to the Estlink 2 electricity cable as the result of "aggravated criminal mischief". EU officials have characterized the incident as part of Russia's hybrid warfare against NATO, with a European Commission statement describing the cable severing as "the latest in a series of suspected attacks on critical infrastructure." The vessel in question was observed traversing the same area where the cable damage occurred near in time to the incident. Four additional telecom cables were disrupted - one linking Finland and Germany and three between Finland and Estonia. Finland's coast guard boarded the suspect vessel on Thursday: Finnish police said in a statement that the coastguard crew boarded an oil tanker in Finnish waters early on Thursday. Authorities named the vessel as the Eagle S, and said it was registered in the Cook Islands in the South Pacific. When it was detained, the ship was sailing from Russia’s Saint Petersburg to Port Said in Egypt, according to online marine tracking website, MarineTraffic. According to MarineTraffic, the ship was owned by United Arab Emirates-based vessel management company, Caravella. The European Commission in its statement additionally accused the Eagle S ship of being part of Russia's energy sanctions-busting 'shadow fleet'. "The suspected vessel is part of Russia’s shadow fleet, which threatens security and the environment, while funding Russia’s war budget," it said. "We will propose further measures, including sanctions, to target this fleet." There are initial reports from European sources alleging the discovery of Russian intelligence-linked surveillance equipment found onboard the vessel: “Hi-tech” Russian signals intelligence equipment was reportedly carried by the tanker Eagle S, currently in custody after reportedly cutting the Estlink-2 cable in the Baltic, per Lloyd’s List. “They were monitoring all Nato naval ships and aircraft,” Lloyd’s List was told. Finnish Special Forces board and take over a ship in "Konflikti" miniseries. Very similar action was seen on EAGLE S vessel on Christmas Day. pic.twitter.com/qmVKbLjB5f — Tomi 🇺🇦🇫🇮 (@TallbarFIN) December 27, 2024 Data from the ship-tracking website MarineTraffic shows the vessel slowed down at the time the 658 megawatt (MW) Estlink 2 power interconnector was disrupted. The tanker was transiting the Baltics on its way from St. Petersburg to Egypt at the time, on Christmas day. MarineTraffic data also shows the Finnish Border Guard's patrol vessel Turva escorted the tanker to waters off Porkkalaniemi, a peninsula on the Gulf of Finland, on Wednesday night, before it was boarded and seized by Coast Guard commandos the next day. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 22:30
The Spies Who Hate Us
1735354800 from ZEROHEDGE
The Spies Who Hate Us Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via the Brownstone Institute, Brownstone Institute has been tracking a little-known federal agency for years. It is part of the Department of Homeland Security created after 9-11. It is called the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency or CISA. It was created in 2018 out of a 2017 executive order that seemed to make sense. It was a mandate to secure American digital infrastructure against foreign attack and infiltration. And yet during the Covid year, it assumed three huge jobs. It was the agency responsible for dividing the workforce between essential and nonessential. It led the way on censorship efforts. And it handled election security for 2020 and 2022, which, if you understand the implications of that, should make you spit out your coffee upon learning. More than any other agency, it became the operationally relevant government during this period. It was the agency that worked through third parties and packet-switching networking to take down your Facebook group. It worked through all kinds of intermediaries to keep a lid on Twitter. It managed LinkedIn, Instagram, and most of the other mainstream platforms in a way that made you feel like your opinions were too crazy to see the light of day. The most astonishing court document just came out. It was unearthed in the course of litigation undertaken by America First Legal. It has no redaction. It is a reverse chronicle of most of what they did from February 2020 until last year. It is 500 pages long. The version available now takes an age to download, so we shrunk it and put it on fast view so you can see the entire thing. What you discover is this. Everything that the intelligence agencies did not like during this period – doubting lockdowns, dismissing masking, questioning the vaccine, and so on – was targeted through a variety of cutouts among NGOs, universities, and private-sector fact-checkers. It was all labeled as Russian and Chinese propaganda so as to fit in with CISA’s mandate. Then it was throttled and taken down. It managed remarkable feats such as getting WhatsApp to stop allowing bulk sharing. It gets crazier. CISA documented that it deprecated the study of Jay Bhattacharya from May 2020 that showed that Covid was far more widespread and less dangerous than the CDC was claiming, thus driving down the Infection Fatality Rate within the range of a bad flu. This was at a time when it was widely assumed to be the black death. CISA weighed in to say that the study was faulty and tore down posts about it. The granularity of their work is shocking, naming Epoch Times, Unz.org, and a whole series of websites as disinformation, often with a crazy spin that identified them with Russian propaganda, white supremacy, terrorist activity, or some such. Reading through the document conjures up memories of Lenin and Stalin smearing the Kulaks or Hitler on the Jews. Everything that is contrary to government claims becomes foreign infiltration or insurrectionist or otherwise seditious. It’s a very strange world these people inhabit. Over time, of course, the agency ended up demonizing much authentic science plus a majority of public opinion. And yet they stayed at it, fully convinced of the rightness of their cause and the justness of their methods. It seems never to have occurred to this agency that we have a First Amendment that is part of our laws. It never enters the discussion at all. AFL summarizes the document as follows. CISA’s Countering Foreign Influence Task Force (CFITF) relied on the Censorship Industrial Complex to inform its censorship of alleged foreign disinformation narratives regarding COVID-19. Unelected bureaucrats at CISA weaponized the homeland security apparatus, including FEMA, to monitor COVID-19 speech dissenting from “expert” medical guidance, including President Trump’s comments about taking Hydroxychloroquine in 2020. Many of these “false” narratives later turned out to be true, calling into question the government’s ability to identify “misinformation,” regardless of its authority to do so. To determine what was “foreign disinformation,” CISA relied on the Censorship Industrial Complex’s usual suspects (Atlantic Council DFR Lab, Media Matters, Stanford Internet Observatory) — even those discredited for erroneously attributing domestic content to foreign sources (Alliance for Securing Democracy). CISA even relied on foreign government authorities (EU vs. Disinfo) and foreign government-linked groups (CCDH, GDI) that advocated for the demonetization and deplatforming of individual Americans to monitor and target constitutionally protected speech by American citizens. For years, this story of censorship has unfolded in shocking ways. This document among tens of thousands of pages is surely among the most incriminating. And discussing it is apparently still taboo because the Subcommittee report on Covid never once mentions CISA. Why might that be? In the strange world of D.C., CISA might be considered untouchable because it was staffed out of the National Security Agency which itself is a spinoff of the Central Intelligence Agency. Thus does its activities generally fall under the category of classified. And its many functioning assets in the civilian sector are legally bound to keep their relationships and connections private. Thank goodness at least one judge believed otherwise and forced the agency to cough it up. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 22:00
China Dominates As The World's Top Car Producer
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China Dominates As The World's Top Car Producer Last year, global vehicle production reached 93.5 million units, representing a 2% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 and a significant 17% rise from 2022. This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Kayla Zhu, visualizes the share of motor vehicles produced by the top 30 countries in 2023. The figures come from the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, and includes both passenger and commercial vehicles. Which Country Produced the Most Cars in 2023? Below, we show the total number of motor vehicles produced by each of the top 30 countries, as well as their share of global production. Rank Country/Region Region Total Car Production Share of Total Production 1 🇨🇳 China Asia 30,160,966 32.2% 2 🇺🇸 USA Americas 10,611,555 11.3% 3 🇯🇵 Japan Asia 8,997,440 9.6% 4 🇮🇳 India Asia 5,851,507 6.3% 5 🇰🇷 South Korea Asia 4,243,597 4.5% 6 🇩🇪 Germany Europe 4,109,371 4.4% 7 🇲🇽 Mexico Americas 4,002,047 4.3% 8 🇪🇸 Spain Europe 2,451,221 2.6% 9 🇧🇷 Brazil Americas 2,324,838 2.5% 10 🇹🇭 Thailand Asia 1,841,663 2.0% 11 🇨🇦 Canada Americas 1,553,026 1.7% 12 🇫🇷 France Europe 1,505,076 1.6% 13 🇹🇷 Turkey Asia 1,468,393 1.6% 14 🇨🇿 Czech Republic Europe 1,404,501 1.5% 15 🇮🇩 Indonesia Asia 1,395,717 1.5% 16 🇸🇰 Slovakia Europe 1,080,000 1.2% 17 🇬🇧 United Kingdom Europe 1,025,474 1.1% 18 🇮🇹 Italy Europe 880,085 0.9% 19 🇲🇾 Malaysia Asia 774,600 0.8% 20 🇷🇺 Russia Europe 729,864 0.8% 21 🇿🇦 South Africa Africa 633,337 0.7% 22 🇵🇱 Poland Europe 612,882 0.7% 23 🇦🇷 Argentina Americas 610,725 0.7% 24 🇲🇦 Morocco Africa 535,825 0.6% 25 🇷🇴 Romania Europe 513,050 0.5% 26 🇭🇺 Hungary Europe 507,225 0.5% 27 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan Asia 425,876 0.5% 28 🇧🇪 Belgium Europe 332,103 0.4% 29 🇵🇹 Portugal Europe 318,231 0.3% 30 🌍 Others - 2,646,404 2.8% China dominated global car production in 2023, accounting for almost a third of all cars produced last year. The country currently produces and exports more cars than any other country in the world, as of December 2024. The country currently has the capacity to produce more than twice its domestic demand for cars, freeing up a significant portion of its car production to be allocated for export. The Chinese government has massively invested in ramping up domestic automotive production, and specifically its burgeoning electric vehicle sector. The government’s strategic initiatives, such as “Made in China 2025,” have prioritized electric vehicle manufacturing, leading to substantial growth in this area. The Best of the Rest Following behind China is the United States, with 11.3% of the global share. Elon Musk’s Tesla is currently the most valuable automaker in the world, with a market cap of over $1.4 trillion, as of Dec. 24, 2024. Tesla shares hit a record high following Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election. The American electric vehicle company dominates the industry, representing nearly half of the market capitalization among global automakers, with a valuation exceeding the combined worth of the next 29 car manufacturers. Japan ranks third at 9.6% of global car production, bolstered by legacy carmakers like Toyota and Honda. To learn more about global car production, check out this graphic that breaks down the global battery electric vehicle (BEV) industry by automaker. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 21:30
Sheriffs Say They Can Help ICE In Trump's Mass Deportation Plan
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Sheriffs Say They Can Help ICE In Trump's Mass Deportation Plan Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times, Sheriffs will likely play a key role in helping federal agents secure the border and deport illegal immigrants under President-elect Donald Trump. Trump made mass deportation of illegal immigrants a key part of his campaign to win a second term as almost 11 million people flooded into the country illegally since 2021. The president-elect’s incoming border czar, Tom Homan, has signaled a new era of federal, state, and local cooperation when it comes to deporting illegal immigrants. Homan, the former acting head of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), indicated he will first target those who have criminal convictions or are wanted for crimes. “The nation wants a safe country. We’ve had enough crime in this country,” Homan said during a stop at the Texas border in November. Sheriffs in the nation’s 3,100 counties could play an essential role in helping ICE to identify and detain illegal immigrants, said Sam Bushman, CEO of the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association (CSPOA), a conservative organization that opposes “unconstitutional” government overreach. As chief law enforcement officers in their counties, elected sheriffs have more latitude than appointed police chiefs. They have authority over criminal investigations, serving warrants, managing county jails, and providing court security within the county. Bushman foresees cooperation between willing county, state, and federal authorities to deport illegal immigrants, possibly through the creation of a new coordination agency or command center. “I think that we could create an organization that communicates with this trifecta, and that would be very effective,” he said. Richard Mack, a former Arizona sheriff and founder of CSPOA, has been in contact with Homan and believes sheriffs will be an integral part of border security and deportation efforts because of their unique understanding of their jurisdictions. “Who in this country knows their counties better than the sheriff?” he asked. Because of their local knowledge, sheriffs are in a unique position to help make deportation safer and easier, Mack told The Epoch Times. Regardless of politics, sheriffs must protect their constituents from crime and criminals, both tied to illegal immigration in terms of drug and human smuggling along with violent gang activity, he said. Policy experts have suggested that the federal government could deputize local law enforcement under its 287(g) program to aid ICE because the agency likely doesn’t have the manpower to do so alone. The 287(g) program currently provides a framework of cooperation wherein local jails work with ICE to identify illegal immigrants as they are booked for a crime. ICE and designated local law enforcement can then hold that inmate for up to an additional 48 hours so that ICE can take custody of the inmate. Homan has touted the program as a safe deportation pipeline, as ICE officers can pick up deportees within the safety of a jail setting, rather than having to organize an operation out in the community. ICE has about 20,000 employees, including support personnel. ICE’s Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) has 6,100 deportation officers and more than 750 enforcement removal assistants who are assigned to 24 field offices, according to an agency website. Former Chief of the U.S. Border Patrol Rodney Scott, who served under both Trump and Biden, said in a previous interview with The Epoch Times that Trump could expand the 287(g) program to help with deportations, as he did during his first term. Scott was recently nominated by Trump to serve as the incoming Customs and Border Protection commissioner. He said the 287(g) program also allows the creation of a task force and hybrid model that would enable local and state law enforcement to arrest illegal immigrants. In the blue state of Maryland, Frederick County Sheriff Chuck Jenkins, a longtime Republican, recalls when the task force model was operational in 2008. Frederick County Sheriff Chuck Jenkins at a meeting about illegal immigration issues in Bethesda, Md., on Oct. 17, 2017. Benjamin Chasteen/The Epoch Times “We had deputies on the street that could work at the direction of ICE and with ICE to take into custody people who had deportation warrants and so forth,” Jenkins told The Epoch Times. Reinstating the task force model would help expedite the deportation of criminals in the country illegally, he said. The Trump administration could also send representatives to local sheriff departments to recruit them to join the program, he said. “ICE can’t do it alone, or certainly not enough,” Jenkins said. “We need to be a force multiplier for them.” Tying federal grant money to sheriff department cooperation with ICE would likely convince many to come on board, he said. Even if sheriffs don’t participate in arresting illegal immigrants, they could help in other ways, such as providing transportation and logistical support and workspace for ICE, he said. Jenkins said Frederick County’s jail-based detainer program has been successful, resulting in the removal of about 2,000 illegal immigrant criminals in the county. Under the 287(g) program, sheriff’s office employees are trained to file a detainer and prepare the paperwork under the supervision of ICE in an effort to streamline the process, he said. Illegal immigrants stand along the U.S.-Mexico border as they await processing by the U.S. Border Patrol in Jacumba Hot Springs, Calif., on Dec. 1, 2023. Mario Tama/Getty Images San Diego County Sheriff Kelly Martinez, who serves in the nation’s fifth most populous county, has vowed to defy a new county policy to limit cooperation with federal deportation efforts. Earlier this month, San Diego County supervisors voted to ban its sheriff department from working with ICE on the federal agency’s enforcement of civil immigration laws, including those that allow for deportations. California law generally prohibits cooperation but makes exceptions for those convicted of certain violent crimes. Martinez, whose office is nonpartisan but considers herself a Democrat, said she wouldn’t honor the new policy and that the county government doesn’t oversee her office. “Current state law strikes the right balance between limiting local law enforcement’s cooperation with immigration authorities, ensuring public safety, and building community trust,” Martinez said. In the blue state of Michigan, Barry County Sheriff Dar Lief said it is important to remove violent criminals from the streets. “I’m on board with that,” he told The Epoch Times. Lief echoed the belief of Trump and his surrogates during the presidential campaign that many of the illegal immigrants coming into the country were from prison systems or asylums. “Nonetheless, our governor here asked residents to take in illegal immigrants,” he said. “Who are you opening up your house to?” Lief said he warned the citizens of Barry County against taking in illegal immigrants, which Gov. Gretchen Whitmer called “new Americans,” because there was no guarantee they were properly vetted. Not all blue states or city leaders are against Trump’s deportation plan to remove criminal illegal immigrants. New York City Mayor Eric Adams met with Homan recently to discuss deporting illegal immigrants who commit violent crimes in the Democrat-run city. “We will not be a safe haven for those who commit violent acts. We don’t do it for those who are citizens, and we’re not going to do it for those who are undocumented,” Adams said during a press conference. New York City Mayor Eric Adams speaks at a media availability event after meeting with border czar Tom Homan in New York City, on Dec. 12, 2024. Oliver Mantyk/The Epoch Times Adams said law-abiding illegal immigrants are welcome in the city. Still, it was a “terrible mistake” to allow those in the country unlawfully to commit violent crimes repeatedly, especially those associated with gangs. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said in November during a press conference that she supports “legal” immigrants, including asylum-seekers, but not criminals here illegally or those committing crimes. “Someone breaks the law—I‘ll be the first one to call up ICE and say, ’Get them out of here,'” she said. Homan said blue city officials don’t have to cooperate, but he has repeatedly warned them not to stand in his way. Homan recently announced he would begin deportations in Chicago, criticizing Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker for resisting the removal of criminal immigrants. “If he impedes us, if he knowingly harbors and conceals an illegal alien, I will prosecute him,” Homan said of the Chicago mayor. Tom Homan, tapped to be President-elect Donald Trump's border czar, addressed Operation Lone Star members at the Texas border on Nov. 26, 2024. Darlene McCormick Sanchez/The Epoch Times Texas Model Homan said during a visit to the Texas border town of Eagle Pass before Thanksgiving that the state’s operation to stop illegal immigration could become a national model. He praised Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s Operation Lone Star, a $10-billion border mission to string razor wire along the border, place buoy barriers in the Rio Grande, help build a border wall, and bus illegal immigrants to sanctuary cities. The operation consists of Department of Public Safety law enforcement and Texas National Guard members. The program also focuses on arresting illegal immigrants for trespassing on private ranchland along the border—offering a unique roadmap for how counties could help deport illegal immigrants. Brent Smith, the county attorney for Kinney County, has plenty of experience dealing with illegal immigrants in his county, which sits along the Texas–Mexico border. Kinney County has prosecuted the largest number of illegal immigrants for trespass and related misdemeanors under Operation Lone Star. In 2019 and 2020, the small, rural county dealt with just 254 and 132 misdemeanor cases, respectively, mostly involving U.S. citizens. The U.S. citizen caseload has remained somewhat constant, but because of illegal immigration, the total number of misdemeanor cases shot up to 6,799 in 2022 and 5,826 in 2023, according to numbers obtained from the county attorney’s office. Smith told The Epoch Times that trespassing arrests in Kinney County under Operation Lone Star offered valuable lessons on how to run a border security initiative. At first, funding went to provide law enforcement, but Smith said it became clear that there needed to be more funding for the entire county justice system for prosecutors, public defenders, clerks, and judges to process illegal immigrants charged with trespassing. “What I foresee is some very strong 287(g) agreements being entered into, and state and local law enforcement actually becoming an arm of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) immigration enforcement,” he said. Law enforcement responds to a crash and fire of a suspected smuggling vehicle near Brackettville, Texas. Courtesy of Kinney County Sheriff's Office He said that after undergoing a DHS training program, local officers are considered immigration officers under the supervision of an ICE agent. He pointed to former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who was known for implementing the 287(g) task force successfully to arrest illegal immigrants in Arizona but came under fire during the Obama administration. Maricopa County’s 287(g) program was canceled in 2011 after a Department of Justice investigation accused the sheriff of racial profiling. In 2012, the Obama administration discontinued the task force and hybrid models of the program altogether. Trump expanded the program in his first term to 150 agreements with local law enforcement and broadened the removal criteria to include misdemeanors. Under the Biden administration, new 287(g) agreements were paused. Smith said that once Trump ends the Biden administration’s catch-and-release policy, there will be more “gotaways,” which will require a shift in resources to focus on apprehension instead of processing those claiming asylum. Money—or the lack of it—will be an essential tool in deportation and border security, he said. On the state level, he has been discussing a bill with Texas lawmakers that would require sheriffs to apply for 287(g) agreements before receiving state grant funding. The same principle could be applied to federal grant money for cities such as Chicago, he said. “How much is your political leanings worth to you? Is it worth $1,000, or $100,000, or $2 million?” he said. “We’re going to find out.” Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 21:00
HTS Names UN-Designated Terrorist As Syria's New Intelligence Chief
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HTS Names UN-Designated Terrorist As Syria's New Intelligence Chief Via The Cradle On Thursday, Syria's de facto authorities appointed former Al-Qaeda commander and Nusra Front co-founder Anas Hassan Khattab as the head of the country's general intelligence agency. Khattab, also known as Abu Ahmed Hudood, was blacklisted as a "terrorist" by the UN Security Council in September 2014 for his close association with Al-Qaeda. Anas Hassan Khattab, also known as Abu Ahmed Hudood According to the listing, for several years, he was involved "in the financing, planning, facilitating, preparing, or perpetrating of acts or activities by, in conjunction with, under the name of, on behalf of, or in support of" and "otherwise supporting acts or activities of" the Nusra Front. This Al-Qaeda offshoot was rebranded as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in 2017. Khattab served as the administrative emir of the Nusra Front as of early 2014 and was part of its shura council by mid-2013. He was also tasked with selecting personal bodyguards for HTS leader and Syria's de facto ruler Abu Mohammad al-Julani, who dropped his nom de guerre earlier this month and now goes by his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa. In recent years, Khattab oversaw general security operations in Idlib. His involvement in intelligence gathering dates back to the period when HTS consolidated control over northern Syria with Turkish support; during this time, he managed surveillance of covert networks along the borders of HTS-controlled areas. Syria's new intel chief was sanctioned by the US Treasury Department in 2012 for his ties to Al-Qaeda. Khattab is the latest HTS authority to be granted a top post in the so-called "transitional government" following the success of the Turkish and US-backed coup against the government of ousted Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Last week, the General Command of the Armed Opposition Factions appointed Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, a founding member of Al-Qaeda in Syria, as the new caretaker foreign minister. This was followed by the appointment of Murhaf Abu Qasra, a top HTS leader known by his assumed name Abu Hassan 600, as defense minister. It must have been a tense meeting yesterday in Damascus between HTS chief Jolani and the head of Iraqi intelligence. Especially for the Iraqi delegation a hard pill to swallow as Jolani before his time in Syria was in Iraq with Zarqawi blowing up Iraqis. pic.twitter.com/mojl2jTmEd — Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa) December 27, 2024 As HTS continues to consolidate power with the full support of western nations, clashes have broken out in western Syria between the remnants of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and HTS-led extremists. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 20:30
The Economics Of "It's A Wonderful Life"
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The Economics Of "It's A Wonderful Life" Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times, When Frank Capra’s “It’s a Wonderful Life” was being filmed in 1945, just as the Second World War was closing and a few years before the Cold War was heating up, the FBI investigated it for its supposed anti-capitalist themes. A memo said: “With regard to the picture It’s a Wonderful Life, [redacted] stated in substance that the film represented rather obvious attempts to discredit bankers by casting Lionel Barrymore as a ‘scrooge-type’ so that he would be the most hated man in the picture. This, according to these sources, is a common trick used by Communists. [In] addition, [redacted] stated that, in his opinion, this picture deliberately maligned the upper class, attempting to show the people who had money were mean and despicable characters.” If it was a communist plot, it’s not a very good one. The film celebrates small-town life, family, hard work, faith, dedication to truth, and bottom-up prosperity, while villainizing theft (Mr. Potter effectively steals the money belonging to the small bank) and consolidation of finance. Ask anyone what the message of the film is. They will tell you: truth, decency, be happy with the opportunities you have, don’t be jealous or envious of others, count your blessings, remember how valuable you are as a person, rally around the life you have, serve your community, fight evil when necessary, and don’t ever take your good life for granted. There’s nothing communist about that. As for the portrayal of the banker, Henry Potter in the film is a stand-in for ruling class power and the accumulation of unjust wealth and power, someone more akin to government than regular businesspeople. In the nightmare sequence, Potter takes over the town and the place becomes a decadent and drunken place of squalor, crime, and sadness, fueled by credit schemes and power brokering. Maybe that has a ring of truth to it? Partisans of capitalism would not do their cause any favors by defending the big banker in this movie against the aspirations of the townsfolk. Rather than force-fitting this film into a Cold War narrative, the film can be more properly seen as part of a long line of Capra’s own populist impulses, most fully realized in his 1941 masterpiece “Meet John Doe.” That film is actually better overall, in my view, the story of how a legitimate populist movement gets played by a wicked power broker who attempts to channel the people’s goodness into a fifth-column movement designed to subvert the Constitution. I have certain historical figures in mind (FDR perhaps?), but that’s for another time. The most riveting scene in “It’s a Wonderful Life” concerns a run on the Building and Loan that is managed by George Bailey. Hearing of the other troubles in the industry, and a rumor spread by Henry Potter, the depositors panic and demand their money to be withdrawn immediately. There was nothing unfair or illicit about the demand. The people were worried about the viability of the institution in light of the rumors of missing funds. At the same time, the whole idea of a Building and Loan is the pooling of resources to support home ownership in exchange for which depositors receive interest. They are nowhere promised a full and immediate return on all deposits on demand. The institution is built on trust—trust that the managers are not overleveraged, trust that its investments are wise, trust that the community is economically viable, trust that people will pay their mortgages. Bailey gives an impassioned speech to the depositors that saves the institution. Here is what he said: “Now listen to me. I beg of you not to do this thing. If Potter gets hold of this Building and Loan there’ll never be another decent house built in this town. He’s already got charge of the bank. He’s got the bus line. He’s got the department stores. And now he’s after us. Why? Well, it’s very simple. Because we’re cutting in on his business, that’s why. And because he wants to keep you living in his slums and paying the kind of rent he decides. “Please, let me explain something to you. Your money’s in Joe’s house, right next to yours. And in the Kennedy house, and Mrs. Macklin’s house, and a hundred others. Why, you’re lending them the money to build, and then they’re going to pay it back to you as best they can. Now, what are you going to do? Foreclose on them? “I’ve got $2,000 here. That’s what’s left of the Building and Loan. The rest is locked up in mortgages. Now, you’re not going to get your money tonight. But you’ve got my word that each one of you will get your money back as soon as we can possibly give it to you.” Based on this speech, people calm down and decide to trust that something will work out. Bailey here proves himself to be a very good marketing manager of the institution, eloquently explaining how the system works here—or, rather, reminding them of how the institution functions as a matter of contract. You can trace banking contracts through history to understand that there are many different types. Some institutions are purely for storage and safekeeping, essentially holding your resources in a safe deposit box or a grain elevator. The contract is a bailment: you get the whole of your deposit back on the asking. That is true for every depositor at any moment in time. The Building and Loan is not set up to provide all depositors their money upon the asking. Its assets and liabilities balance, but its assets are in the nonliquid form of housing. There is nothing shady or noncontractual about this. Nor does this kind of leverage produce inflation. Its job is to put capital in the form of money to work in ways that pay returns over time. In loan banking with clearing services, the situation is different. Your money is invested in other projects and the clearing services are free or depositors earn interest. It’s a straightforward business transaction. By the 1940s, however, there was plenty shady about a bank of the type run by Potter, who is a stand-in for a long line of banking interests that become overleveraged and rely on its relationship with government and cartelized central bankers for bailouts when times get rough. We saw this in spades in 2008, when the Fed used its powers to recapitalize major banks and financial firms that had overleveraged in mortgage-backed securities. In fact, the creation of the Federal Reserve itself in 1913 was advertised as a way to provide financial stability to the industry but it ended up centralizing it, creating a moral hazard, and subsidizing loan profligacy in a way that endangered the entire system. After the Fed was tapped to provide liquidity for the Great War, the industry never really righted itself toward financial soundness. The bank runs of the early 1930s that ended with mandated bank holidays and devaluation make the point. That’s not a failure of “fractional reserve banking” as such but simply a failure of signaling systems, clear contracts, transparent audits, and honest risk assessments. Central banking itself is the source of the problem. Nor did government-provided deposit insurance (started in 1933) work as a stabilizer, it only incentivized more risk-taking than the market would otherwise allow. To be sure, there is a role for institutions that provide 100 percent backing for deposits. Even now, people are reluctant to keep more than $250,000 in a single bank account because this is the amount of government-provided deposit insurance. They are essentially seeking perfect liquidity on their accounts. The other option is to hold one’s money in financial firms that keep money invested in stocks and bonds that pay returns based on depositor risk assessment. The case of Bitcoin is a good test case for what markets demand of banking. Most exchanges claim to offer 1:1 holdings of assets with zero leverage, though others market themselves as institutions for pooling resources and giving returns to depositors based on risk. This experiment has been fascinating because there is no deposit insurance and no Bitcoin central bank. Some exchanges have gone belly up precisely because not all promises have been kept. As the industry matures, which we can hope will happen without government backing or intervention, it will become a complex mixture of self-custody (after all, becoming your own bank was the whole pitch of Bitcoin), full custody exchanges, loan operations, and leveraged services of various risk profiles. This is how a free market in money and banking should work. In an ideal world, banking would work like any other business in a free market. It would bear all the risk for the investments it undertakes. It would have free entry and exit. There would be innovation driven by the entrepreneurial spirit. Government would have nothing to do with it. In some ways, that was the Building and Loan that George Bailey saved through his efforts. The popularity of “It’s a Wonderful Life” owes so much to its messaging, and also to the perception for decades that the film was in the public domain, which permitted it to be widely aired on television, causing generations to regard it as the American classic it truly is. It is also a tribute to the enterprising spirit and its connection to family, community, and the values that make for the good life. The FBI was simply wrong and the film’s popularity to this day proves it. * * * Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 20:00
"All Systems Go" For Polar Vortex Air Dumping Into US
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"All Systems Go" For Polar Vortex Air Dumping Into US New forecasts from private weather forecaster BAMWX show an Arctic blast, or "polar vortex," is set to pour into the eastern half of the United States during the second week of January or by mid-month. US natural gas markets responded early Friday, jumping nearly 5% on expectations of a colder start to the new year and increased heating fuel demand. "BIG overnight colder trends on the EPS. The key here is the tropospheric polar vortex sitting over the Hudson Bay. The ability for storms/fronts to pull in cold air will be amplified and this run highlights that. Stages set for a few memorable cold snaps in January of 2025," BAMWX wrote on X. BIG overnight colder trends on the EPS. The key here is the tropospheric polar vortex sitting over the Hudson Bay. The ability for storms/fronts to pull in cold air will be amplified and this run highlights that. Stages set for a few memorable cold snaps in January of 2025. pic.twitter.com/bbe9rF9gep — BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) December 27, 2024 BAMWX noted, "In addition to the Tropospheric Polar Vortex - one key to keeping the cold around for an extended time is to then move the Stratospheric Polar Vortex towards North America to ensure a consistent supply of cold air down the road," adding, "Both the ECMWF and GEFS are showing that now." In addition to the Tropospheric Polar Vortex - one key to keeping the cold around for an extended time is to then move the Stratospheric Polar Vortex towards North America to ensure a consistent supply of cold air down the road. Both the ECMWF and GEFS are showing that now. pic.twitter.com/Bm0tGFcKg1 — BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) December 27, 2024 BAMWX's Kirk Hinz commented on the new weather models, pointing to a very serious cold start to the year for the eastern half of the US. He said, "All systems "go" on Arctic air dumping into the US early to mid-Jan." All systems "go" on #Arctic air dumping into the US early to mid-Jan. We have been mentioning for weeks now to look for this period for our next cold air outbreak + increased #winter storm potential.#PolarVortex position is prime for "durable" cold as well.#natgas #energy pic.twitter.com/eKoiiPTlrW — Kirk 🇺🇸 Hinz | BAM ⚡️Weather (@Met_khinz) December 27, 2024 Here's BAMWX's long-range analysis for January: The cold sets the stage for possible snowy conditions across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. A look at January patterns with a declining AAM, suggests theres plenty of snow chances on the horizon in January. Im about to record my latest video to talk more about this be sure to check it out! pic.twitter.com/zIWNGaNNXk — BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) December 27, 2024 BAMWX's January Forecast in video format: NatGas futures for January delivery jumped nearly 5%, reaching about $3.89/MMBtu. Notably, prices have breached the $3 resistance level after consolidating for two years, potentially signaling a major trend reversal. In early December, warmer Lower 48 temperatures turned the "widowmaker" (March-April 2025) spread negative at the earliest point in the season in nine years. This signaled that the market abandoned expectations for higher prices across the Lower 48 this winter. However, the spread has flatlined around 0 and turned up. All it takes is one polar vortex split to unleash cold Arctic air into the Lower 48, potentially reversing the bearish outlook—and that's likely what may happen here. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 19:30
America's Problem With Consumerism Is The Government's Fault
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America's Problem With Consumerism Is The Government's Fault Authored by Connor O'Keefe via The Mises Institute, At the end of every year, as we make our way through the holidays, you’ll hear no shortage of complaints about the rampant hyper-consumerism at the heart of modern American society. And these complaints aren’t without merit. Flip on the TV or walk through any city’s commercial district before Christmas, and it’s easy to get the impression that the entire American concept of familial love rests on how much stuff we buy for each other. Beyond Christmas, there’s no question that purchasing and acquiring stuff is a central part of American life. Many consider their social status to be reflected by how much they can and do spend on luxurious goods and experiences. And, each year, billions of dollars of marketing goes into convincing us that we are one purchase away from permanent bliss. There’s no question that modern America is a very “consumerist” society. But before condemning that as a “moral failure” of the American people, it’s important to understand that this is the sought-after result of our government’s policies. Consumption is an essential part of life. We obviously need food, water, clothing, and shelter to survive. And, as human civilization has grown beyond Malthusian hunter-gatherer conditions, the goods and services available to consume have made life safer, more comfortable, and more fulfilling than our early ancestors could have dreamed of. But all that progress rests on one thing above all: our ancestor’s willingness to forgo consumption, save the fruits of their labor, and invest it in the production of more valued goods and services. Forgoing consumption is not easy, but it is incredibly important. Because saving in order to invest is quite literally the engine of civilization. But saving itself is also an important aspect of a healthy society. Our world is unstable and uncertain. Saving money protects us from future difficulties we cannot foresee. And further, it allows us to pass on wealth to our descendants—improving the starting point and overall well-being of future generations. So, if the well-being of all of our society requires we invest in more valued lines of production, our personal well-being requires we consume, and the well-being of our future selves and descendants requires we save, what determines which action we choose? We can’t do all three at the same time, after all. Like anything, it comes down to our preferences. More specifically, in this case, because we’re comparing the satisfaction of our wants in different time periods, it comes down to what economists call time preference—the extent to which we value present satisfaction over that exact same satisfaction in the future. For some—mainly children—immediate gratification is highly preferred to delayed gratification, even when that delayed gratification is much larger. These people are said to have a high time preference. Typically, as we become adults, we come to recognize the benefits of withholding some of our consumption in order to save and/or invest in productive pursuits. Although it is by no means easy, we start to improve our lives dramatically if we can find the discipline to act in the interest of our future selves. Those who forgo a lot of instant gratification through consumption to pursue the delayed—but often greater—gratification that comes from being frugal or productive are said to have a low time preference. Essentially, all of human history is one long story of societies successfully working to lower their time preference, investing in the well-being of future generations, and leaving the world better off than it had been before. While it is always more comfortable in the moment to satisfy our immediate wants, the consistency of falling time preferences across most of the globe suggests that humans naturally gravitate toward sacrificing their own material comforts to bring about a better future for themselves and their children. That is a beautiful thing, and it’s the reason our species has achieved so much. But over the last century or so, this glorious, multi-thousand-year trend has come under attack. In the past, some economists mistakenly came to view savings as economic waste. Money saved, they thought, was money “leaking” out of the economy. This idea, which came to be known as “the paradox of thrift,” was then used by political officials to help justify the government’s takeover of the monetary system. Today, with full control over the supply and value of money, the United States government has settled on a policy that aims to bring about permanent price inflation. They do this by printing money and injecting it into the economy through the credit markets. Doing so transfers a lot of wealth to the political class and creates the recurring nightmarish cycle of economic booms and recessions. But it also has profound effects on the public’s behavior. Because permanent price inflation punishes people for saving. Money loses its value over time, meaning—in a reversal of how it’s worked for almost all of human history—money saved today will not be able to purchase as much in the future. With what is, in effect, a tax on savings, the government encourages people to adopt more child-like, high time preference behaviors by saving less and consuming more. Living paycheck-to-paycheck to fund more GDP-bloating consumption is a good thing, in this backward economic view, as is going into debt to fund even more consumption. This government-induced rise in time preference also has incredibly damaging impacts on our culture as the consumption of stuff takes priority over the production of resources and the cultivation of community. And the prioritization of immediate gratification spreads beyond economic decisions to encompass all aspects of life. The American political class may really believe that savings are economically damaging and that they should be discouraged. Or they may just see that argument as another useful justification for a monetary system that is making them very rich. But regardless, the kind of hyper-consumerist, living paycheck-to-paycheck, buried-in-debt lifestyle that is used to chastise Americans—especially around Christmas—is precisely what the American monetary system is built to encourage. Finding the hyper-fixation on buying stuff around the holidays off-putting is appropriate. But make sure you place the blame on the right people. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 19:00
"I Like This Idea": Kevin O'Leary Calls for "Economic Union" Between US & Canada To Secure Future
1735342200 from ZEROHEDGE
"I Like This Idea": Kevin O'Leary Calls for "Economic Union" Between US & Canada To Secure Future Canadian businessman and "Shark Tank" star Kevin O'Leary appeared on Fox Business Thursday, voicing his dissatisfaction over Liberal Party Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's imploding leadership. O'Leary suggested that under President-elect Donald Trump's second term, the United States and Canadian economies should unite to create an economic powerhouse. "This could be the beginning of an economic union," O'Leary said, noting, "Think about the power of combining two economies, erasing the border between Canada and the United States and putting all that resource up to the northern borders where China and Russia are knocking on the doors. Give a common currency, figure out taxes, and get everything trading both ways." He added: "I like this idea and at least half of Canadians are interested." NEW: Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary, a Canadian, says he likes the idea of combining the US and Canadian economies, says he is heading to Mar-a-Lago to start the talks. O'Leary said half of Canadians are interested in Trump's proposal. "[Canadians] want to hear more... what this… pic.twitter.com/ss2sjIADBC — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) December 26, 2024 In recent weeks, Trump said it would be "a great idea" for Canada to become the 51st US state in an unfolding tariff dispute in North America. This prompted Trudeau to visit Trump's Mar-a-Lago in South Florida. On Christmas Day, Trump wrote on Truth Social: "No one can answer why we subsidize Canada to the tune of over $100,000,000 a year? Makes no sense!" He continued, "Many Canadians want Canada to become the 51st State. They would save massively on taxes and military protection. I think it is a great idea. 51st State!!!" Trump also made tariff threats against Canada to secure its border amid the expansion of fentanyl superlab production across Canada—much of which is destined for the US. To O'Leary's point, Trump's threats to impose tariffs on Canada—highly integrated with the US economy, accounting for 60% of US crude oil imports and 85% of US electricity imports—could spark turmoil for its northern neighbor. To resolve this and ensure North America remains an economic powerhouse throughout this century, deeper economic integration and cooperation might be necessary. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 18:30
Bird Flu Virus Mutations Discovered In First Severe Human Case In US, CDC Says
1735340700 from ZEROHEDGE
Bird Flu Virus Mutations Discovered In First Severe Human Case In US, CDC Says Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found mutations in samples taken from a man infected with the first severe case of avian influenza in the United States, mutations that were not present in specimens collected from his infected backyard flock. A person holds a test tube labeled "Bird Flu" in a photo illustration, on Jan. 14, 2023. Dado Ruvic/Reuters The agency began analyzing the samples after the patient—a resident of southwestern Louisiana, aged over 65—was confirmed last week as the first person in the United States with a severe case of H5N1 bird flu. In a Dec. 18 statement, the CDC said the man was infected with the D1.1 genotype of the virus that was recently detected in wild birds and poultry in the United States, and in human cases in British Columbia, Canada, and Washington state. The strain differs from the B3.13 genotype detected in dairy cows, human cases, and some poultry across the United States. According to a Dec. 26 update from the agency, an analysis of two respiratory specimens collected from the man showed low-frequency mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) gene, the part of the virus that plays a key role in its binding to host cells. The mutations were not found in poultry samples collected on the patient’s property, suggesting the changes emerged in the patient after he became infected, the CDC said. According to the CDC, the mutations seen in the samples may result in increased virus binding to cell receptors found in the upper respiratory tract of humans. “Although concerning, and a reminder that A(H5N1) viruses can develop changes during the clinical course of a human infection, these changes would be more concerning if found in animal hosts or in early stages of infection (e.g., within a few days of symptom onset) when these changes might be more likely to facilitate spread to close contacts,” the CDC stated. “Notably, in this case, no transmission from the patient in Louisiana to other persons has been identified.” Risk to Public Remains Low: CDC While the mutations are rare, they have been reported in some cases in other countries and most often during severe infections. One of the mutations was also identified in another severe human case in British Columbia, suggesting it emerged as the virus replicated in the patient, the agency said. Despite the discovery of the mutations, the CDC said the risk to the general public remains low. The detection of a severe human case of bird flu with genetic changes in a clinical specimen “underscores the importance of ongoing genomic surveillance in people and animals,” the agency said. It also highlights the importance of containing bid flu outbreaks among dairy cattle and poultry and implementing prevention measures among people exposed to infected animals or environments, the CDC said. A total of 65 human cases of H5 bird flu have been reported in the United States since April 2024, according to the CDC. To help prevent exposure, health officials have urged people to avoid direct contact with sick or dead animals, particularly wild birds and poultry, and to wear personal protective equipment if contact is unavoidable. The agency also advises people not to touch surfaces or materials contaminated with the saliva, mucous, or animal feces of wild or domestic birds or other animals that may be infected with the virus. Reuters contributed to this report. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 18:05
Mainstream Media Ignores Sectarian Killings In 'Liberated' Syria While Jolani Plays Nice For Cameras
1735339200 from ZEROHEDGE
Mainstream Media Ignores Sectarian Killings In 'Liberated' Syria While Jolani Plays Nice For Cameras Since the rapid collapse of the Assad government and the takeover of Damascus by US-designated terror group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on December 8, Syrians by the hundreds or even thousands have been filmed in city streets celebrating, expressing hope for a new era. But for every scene of hundreds gathered in a city square in front of Al Jazeera or CNN cameras, the reality is that there are many tens of thousands more families holed up in their homes, deeply fearful of venturing outside, with the more fortunate ones having stocked up on supplies just prior to Abu Mohammad al-Jolani's army of mujahideen fighters entering the capital. With the basically overnight and shock collapse of a state system earlier this month which had been in place for over a half-century, Syrians whether in Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Latakia, or Damascus have no clue which armed factions might be patrolling the neighborhoods just around the corner from their apartments. Illustrative: Prior scene in northern Syria earlier in the war. Jihadists mock a Syrian soldier's cross necklace prior to torturing & executing them. A big looming dark fear is the possibility of "reprisal" killings meted out by the jihadists against any community, especially along religious lines, merely perceived as 'loyalist' or at least which never came out openly against the Assad government. We and others have been documenting that this is already taking place. Political alignment aside, all communities of the capital have historically been "Syria first"—that is, the common populace tends to frame identity foremost along nationalistic lines. The ideology of the conquerors, in their own words and patches/symbols on their tactical vests, are without doubt Takfirism, Salafism, and Wahhabism. This has been exhaustively documented over many, many years of the tragic proxy war in Syria - yet now suddenly Western leaders and media lackeys have 'forgotten' it all. Non-Sunni Muslims are especially being targeted, for nothing else other than religion and identity Mainstream media cameras in Damascus have been carefully trying to hide or at least downplay this reality. They present the euphoria of those few on the streets praising the 'revolution' and downfall of Assad while ignoring the many more who are bracing for a sectarian bloodbath at the hands of the jihadists. American correspondents have even been caught 'coaching' bearded militants waring ISIS patches on how to improve their image in front of an international audience... Watch: Syrian 'Moderate Rebel' Removes ISIS Patch At Prompting Of American Journalist. HTS goons open fire on demonstrators protesting extrajudicial revenge killings and the destruction of Alawite shrines just days after Jolani received friendly delegations of US and UK diplomats and journos pic.twitter.com/nVWA49wNgK — Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) December 25, 2024 This fear of being targeted for ethno-religious genocide is perhaps greatest among Christians, Alawites, and Druze. Dread or anxiety at what tomorrow will bring is also a reality among some business-oriented Sunnis of Aleppo and Damascus. Major urban centers in Syria had always had a definite secular and pluralist public vibe—with liquor stores and nightclubs a common sight in central areas—and women in the Islamic veil a little bit more of a rarity. Some liquor stores especially in Aleppo and the north have already been smashed and destroyed. Now, for the first time in Syria's modern history, women who dare to venture out in the city center of Damascus are being asked their sectarian affiliation: Are you Sunni, Shia, Christian, Druze? Or else they are being told to put on the Islamic veil, by bearded militants from outside cities or villages, or worse who are from other countries. Latakia, as well as parts of the countryside, are already witnessing armed jihadist gangs conducting summary executions. Syria: “When we build the Islamic caliphate, Christians will pay Jizya under Islamic Sharia.” - Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, HTS Islamist leader and new ruler of Syria Forcing Christians to become second-class citizens and be extorted through a protection tax is not moderate. pic.twitter.com/BGvnvM8w3C — Christian Emergency Alliance (@ChristianEmerg1) December 17, 2024 Gruesome videos (too horrific to link to) are filling up social media platforms like X and Telegram, in some instances with unidentified victims being dragged to death behind vehicles. Others show HTS-linked factions or else foreign jihadist groups cleansing entire villages of 'Nusayris'—a derogatory term for Alawites, which is ethno-religious background of the Assad family. Jolani's officials have recently tried to urge for militants to not film their atrocities or upload them to the internet. * * * Rania Khalek is an independent journalist who has long reported from the region. Her contacts across Syria are telling her that the jihadists are killing civilians in various places far away from CNN or Al-Jazeera cameras. Below is a report she posted to X [emphasis ZH]... Some concerning developments in Syria that were being largely ignored or dismissed until horrific videos of sectarian violence and executions began emerging in recent days… In some mixed Syrian towns and villages as well as minority neighborhoods around Homs, Hama and on the coast, security was breaking down and people felt scared to speak about it, according to multiple contacts. The Hama-Homs highway had decapitated bodies strewn about, according to one contact. He wanted to take pictures of the bodies on the highway but he didn’t dare out of fear. At one roadblock they forced him to open his phone and they went through it. He said they spoke Arabic but it was a hybrid fusha accent he could barely understand. A contact reported being stopped by HTS at a barricade. He then had to wait for his business partner who is Sunni to come and vouch for him. Not a good sign. Flyers have been disbursed in multiple areas informing women how they should dress and act. Minorities in mixed villages have been subjected to robberies, killings, kidnappings, etc. Some have responded by organizing armed men to protect their neighborhoods from raids. This is not everyone’s experience of course. But these sorts of incidents were increasing. And they reached a fever pitch after the video of the destruction of an Alawite shrine surfaced. Reuters: "Rebel fighters ride in a vehicle after they seized Damascus and ousted President Bashar in Syria, December 9, 2024." While the random violence and score settling speaks to the chaos that comes with a regime change like this, the sectarian violence is much more concerning. There are militias HTS either has no control over because they’re spread too thin or they don’t care to stop them. Some expressed that they suspect HTS is secretly calling the shots and then playing dumb. Whatever the case, there is deep distrust of HTS in many minority communities due to their past violence combined with recent events. "I don't trust them at all, the fact that they are so insistent on collecting guns from people is so worrying, they even want licensed guns, and this is actually scary. They are always trying to appear as nice people talking about peace, but yet every day someone gets killed and they do nothing about it," said one contact in Latakia. The sectarian violence is reminiscent of post 2011 days when the regime would be kicked out of an area and extremist militias would quickly take over and then chaos and sectarian violence would ensue. The pro-HTS side is framing any pushback or measure of self defense in vulnerable communities as Iranian-provoked or Assadist, which isn’t helpful and exacerbates the sectarianism. As the gun battles heat up, it’s hard to ignore the signs of potential civil unrest to come with violent zones of state collapse. I hope stability wins the day but it doesn’t look good. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 17:40
State Lawmakers Say Drastic Change Needed To Make College Affordable, Worthwhile
1735337700 from ZEROHEDGE
State Lawmakers Say Drastic Change Needed To Make College Affordable, Worthwhile Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times, For millions of American college students, things can go from bad to worse in a hurry, as they take on long-term debt to finance higher education and earn a degree that, based on labor market demands, isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on. Data analyzed by a group of state lawmakers across the country indicates that significant changes are needed to the U.S. higher education system—still viewed as the envy of the world—if a college degree is going to remain the best path for long-term financial stability. “The public discourse on higher education ... is filled with anxiety over a host of issues,” stated a recent report from the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) Task Force on Higher Education. “The affordability of higher education tops the list.” The report was written by 29 legislators and four legislative aids across 32 states. The two-year project, completed in October, provides suggestions to college and university leaders and state and federal lawmakers for making college affordable and worthwhile. Task force chairs state Sens. Michael Dembrow from Oregon and Ann Millner from Utah discussed the report during a Dec. 20 virtual town hall event and pledged to lobby the federal government and universities to consider its recommendations in the years ahead. “It also cuts through some of the myths of higher education,” said Dembrow, a Democrat, while applauding the bipartisan effort. “It’s focused on what we can agree on first. I was surprised at how much we agreed.” Collective student debt in the United States is nearly $1.8 trillion, three times that in 2006, according to the report. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found that student debt is also the second-largest form of debt in the nation behind mortgages. One-third of borrowers have debt but no degree, reported the U.S. Department of Education. The population of undergraduate students declined by 2.4 million students between 2012 and 2022, and the vast majority of students attend public four-year institutions as many community colleges and private schools struggle to stay afloat, according to the report. Even though tuition and college costs have increased faster than the rate of inflation, the maximum federal Pell Grant award for eligible students has only increased by 10 percent since 2003, to $7,395 this year. And yet, the federal government spends more than $37,000 per student, or 2.5 percent of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product, compared to about $15,500 per K-12 student, the report says. The report found state education departments can expand dual-enrollment programs so students can earn more college credits while in high school and lessen the amount of time and money needed to complete a degree program after they earn their diploma. Higher education institutions, public and private, can help out with this initiative by being more transparent about what credits earned in high school will be counted toward program completion. The federal government, meanwhile, should require students to attend annual loan counseling sessions “and know their uptake on aid limits,” the report said. The report said colleges and universities could be more transparent by sharing their entire operating budgets to note how much employees are paid and why, and to spell out for students the total costs to attend their institutions full-time, not just the “net” total or average price students pay. The total for housing, meal plans, student services, and other items collectively totals far more than tuition. “Clearly communicate the real price students pay,” it said. “Assess program costs and prices against enrolled students’ income and career earning potential.” The report also suggests that federal block grants are available for states that are in a better position to invest in college and university programs that are more closely aligned with local and state workforce needs. Employers should be involved in writing courses of study and federally funded work-study programs that make students career-ready. The report said tuition costs should be reasonable and relative to the college or university’s program cost as well as the students’ incomes, career pathways, and earning potential. “The federal government, too, has a strong responsibility to enhance the value of degrees,” it said. Millner, a Republican, encouraged lawmakers in all states to read the report and meet with higher education leaders to discuss changes. “It builds a foundation to make a plan for higher education to thrive in states,” she said. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 17:15
Marc Andreessen: 'Every Signal Is Being Sent' Trump DOJ Official Harmeet Dhillon Will Drop Hammer On Woke Corporations
1735336200 from ZEROHEDGE
Marc Andreessen: 'Every Signal Is Being Sent' Trump DOJ Official Harmeet Dhillon Will Drop Hammer On Woke Corporations Billionaire investor and Donald Trump adviser Marc Andreessen thinks corporate culture is about to undergo a radical change. Speaking with Erik Torenberg on the Moment of Zen podcast, Andreessen said that the reign of extreme wokeness, particularly in corporate America and the media, is rapidly coming to an end. The catalyst? A combination of rising legal risks, the deflation of wokeness as a cultural force, and a change in leadership at the Department of Justice. Andreessen highlighted that with the appointment of Harmeet Dhillon to head the DOJ's Civil Rights Division, the federal government may soon begin to challenge and reverse many of the DEI-driven policies that have dominated corporations, universities, and other large institutions over the past decade. This shift, he argues, could trigger a major pullback in DEI initiatives across the private sector, as companies scramble to comply with the law and distance themselves from policies that may now be seen as legally and culturally untenable. .@pmarca to @eriktorenberg: 'Every Signal is Being Sent' Trump DOJ Civil Rights Head Will Target Corporate DEI Policies "If you wanted to pick the most extreme possible attorney to put in charge of the Civil Rights division of the Justice Department to reverse DEI, it would be… pic.twitter.com/NNH2uTWn1t — CAPITAL (@capitalnewshq) December 27, 2024 Erik Torenberg: You're optimistic now that this reign of soft authoritarianism, aka extreme wokeness, is over. There's a question of will it just come back again in four years? Now that Trump will take power, will they sort of summon the resistance antibodies again? Talk a little bit about your perspective. Marc Andreessen: I think that "wokeness is over" is a little bit too glib, and the main reason why that's the case I think, you know, maybe is self-evident, which is basically the bureaucracies of corporate America and of the government and of nonprofits, foundations, schools, universities, the media companies, the press — basically, the big bureaucracies, what we refer to as sort of the managerial class. The cathedral, Curtis' term, or James Burnham's term, the managerial class, the managers who sort of run everything — and by everything being like basically all of the large incumbent institutions — like, wokeness has become standard policy, right? And in like every large organization in the country, like the mandate number one is be compliant, right? Whatever is required to be compliant is like holy, right? It's like the thing that cannot be — you must be compliant. You must check off all the compliance boxes. Whether you win or not in the market is kind of optional, but you must be compliant. Whether you actually teach students anything is optional, but you must be compliant. Wokeness has become part of the compliance regime, also what they refer to wonderfully in great Orwellian terms as the 'risk management regime,' the 'trust and safety regime.' Yeah, you know, just take all these words and reverse them. This stuff has gotten wired very deeply, and then it's been well-documented at this point that the foundation for a lot of what we call wokeness is actually baked deeply into the law. And a whole bunch of people have done great work, like Richard Hanania, Christopher Caldwell, and Wesley [Yang], who have all done great work in documenting kind of how deep this stuff is sort of embedded in the law, which is a whole other topic. There's an institutionalization that took place that's going to take optimistically 30 years to get out or something like that. And by the way, maybe never. Having said that, there's that. But then there's what we've been dealing with for the last decade, which is beyond that — which is sort of the idea of wokeness being like the cultural vanguard, yeah, and basically being the thing that's like the coolest, highest-status, highest-fashion thing you can possibly be, and the thing that you have to be if you want to aspire to rise in the hierarchy and among the managerial class and run things. And then, if you want to get like really good press coverage, and if you want people to think that you're a moral person—that whole thing. Then there's the power component of it. I use the Tolkien metaphor here, the 'ring of power,' which is the ability to call somebody a bad name under the wokeness regime and like instantly vaporize them and blow them out of their job and take their job. Like those second parts are like, I think, fading very fast. And in a lot of ways, it's sort of inevitable that would happen, because it's just like in fashion, whatever is cool and trending now looks dated five or ten years later. And you wonder how people possibly could have worn bell bottoms or whatever. Like, you know, it's that kind of phenomenon. And there's no question, the election basically punched a giant hole in the side of that balloon, and it's deflating incredibly quickly. And by the way, you see it in the reaction. You see it in the reaction to the election itself, which is the polar opposite reaction to 2016, which is just like complete deflation taking place. And I think wokeness is losing altitude quickly. But let's come back to the legal part, because that's also — there are very interesting things that might happen there that we could also talk about." Erik Torenberg: Say more about this. Marc Andreessen: If you wanted to pick the most extreme possible attorney to put in charge of the Civil Rights division of the Justice Department to reverse DEI, it would be this lawyer named Harmeet Dhillon. She's been a California lawyer and has been the scourge of woke corporations for the last decade. As it happens, she has just been appointed to run the Civil Rights division of the Justice Department. For those who don't track this, the Civil Rights division of the Justice Department is the federal government’s prosecutorial arm that basically enforces wokeness. They’re the ones who have made sure that, for the last decade, these companies have had all these crazy policies under the penalty of being investigated, subpoenaed, and ultimately prosecuted. There have been lots of prosecutions and court cases. The most famous case that the current head of the Civil Rights division brought was the case against SpaceX for not hiring enough refugees—despite the fact that SpaceX is a military contractor and is not permitted to hire non-American citizens under a separate law.The person running that division has been a true activist, as you'd expect from this administration. And then Dhillon, who, by the way, I don’t know but I’ve been following for years, and is clearly brilliant, she is the exact opposite of that. Every signal is being sent that they’re going to do a 180 on all these things, and they’re going to begin prosecuting companies for violations of civil rights laws in the form of reverse discrimination—discrimination against white people, Asians, Jews, and other unprotected classes. So, signals are being sent by these appointments that there is going to be an assault to reverse the assault that companies and universities have been under. And then, of course, the Supreme Court ruled not that long ago that private universities are not allowed to do race-based admissions. It’s actually really funny because there’s some question as to whether the demographic shift of admissions in the last year was starkly different than the year before, as these institutions claim they’re coming into compliance with the Supreme Court. There’s some question as to whether discovery will show they’re actually in compliance or whether they’re still playing games. That’s another thing we may find out. There’s also an open question as to whether this decision has essentially already been made or will be made for private companies as well. And there’s a lot of private companies that have been trying to figure out quietly how to distance themselves from DEI, both for legal reasons and for cultural reasons. Now, there's another very interesting thing kicking in. I think there are a lot of large companies that were already done with DEI to start with. They were done with DEI for their own reasons because it’s backfired in many spectacular ways. But now, any large company that wants to distance itself from DEI has the best reason in the world: compliance. It’s illegal. Let me just say for the record... I think every major corporation in the country is just in flagrant violation of actual civil rights law. You cannot have these hard quotas and racially, ethnically, and religiously biased hiring practices. It’s flat-out illegal. These companies have gone so extreme on this that they’ve ended up in what I think is clearly mass illegality. So, as Dhillon steps into her job, she’s not going to lack for a shortage of targets. If you don’t want to be a target, it’s a great 'get out of jail free' card to just voluntarily shut all this stuff down. My guess is that starting pretty quickly, we’re already starting to see it. Boeing and a bunch of other companies have already put a bullet in their programs. Even the University of Michigan, which went completely overboard with this stuff, has actually shut their whole thing down. I think we’re going to see, my guess is, a run of companies that will take dramatic action here. Watch the entire exchange here: Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 16:50
15 Facts About The Growth Of Crime In The US That Will Blow Your Mind
1735334700 from ZEROHEDGE
15 Facts About The Growth Of Crime In The US That Will Blow Your Mind Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com, We live in a high crime society. Nobody can dispute that fact, and it has been this way for a long time. But the crime wave that we have witnessed in recent years has been truly breathtaking. Tens of thousands of gangs are running wild in our major urban areas, and the growth of those gangs has been supercharged during the past four years thanks to the reckless border policies of the Biden administration. Now we have rampant lawlessness in our streets, and it certainly isn’t going to be easy to clean up this mess. The following are 15 facts about the growth of crime in the United States that will blow your mind… #1 The number of shoplifting incidents per year in the United States is up 93 percent compared to pre-pandemic levels… The average number of shoplifting incidents jumped 93% in 2023 compared with pre-pandemic times and monetary losses for retailers have risen 90%, according to the nation’s largest retail trade group. With its “Impact of Retail Theft & Violence 2024” study, the National Retail Federation (NRF) is highlighting the severity of this issue. For instance, despite the continuous efforts by retailers to combat such crimes and a growing number of states that have updated their laws to prosecute organized retail crime as felonies, the number of retail theft incidents continues to climb. #2 Bakersfield, California is the car theft capital of the country… Bakersfield is a city with less than half a million people, making it the 9th most populous city in California. It also has the distinction of having the most car thefts of any U.S. city. #3 Denver, Colorado is closing in on Bakersfield very quickly. In fact, the car theft rate in Denver increased by 37 percent in just one year… Denver is the capital and most populous city in Colorado which incidently made the NICB’s hot spot list for the top state by number of auto thefts. Not only did Denver experience 964 thefts per 100,000 residents, but the theft rate increased by 37%. As with most places, Kia and Hyundai vehicles make up a large percentage of those cars stolen. #4 When it comes to car theft, Pueblo, Colorado only ranks third, but a 47 percent increase in just one year has it climbing the chart fast… Well south of Denver and with a much smaller population, the city of Pueblo takes the third spot on our list. The city experienced auto theft at a rate of 891 per 100,000 residents. Additionally, the theft rate increased by a whopping 47% in one year. Pueblo police cite driver apathy as a reason behind the record levels of theft. #5 According to the FBI, more than 14 million crimes are reported in the United States each year… The FBI released detailed data on over 14 million criminal offenses for 2023 reported to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by participating law enforcement agencies. More than 16,000 state, county, city, university and college, and tribal agencies, covering a combined population of 94.3% inhabitants, submitted data to the UCR Program through the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the Summary Reporting System. #6 There are more than 1.9 million people sitting in our prisons… Further complicating matters is the fact that the U.S. doesn’t have one criminal legal system; instead, we have thousands of federal, state, local, and tribal systems. Together, these systems hold over 1.9 million people in 1,566 state prisons, 98 federal prisons, 3,116 local jails, 1,323 juvenile correctional facilities, 142 immigration detention facilities, and 80 Indian country jails, as well as in military prisons, civil commitment centers, state psychiatric hospitals, and prisons in the U.S. territories — at a system-wide cost of at least $182 billion each year. #7 The U.S. has the largest prison population in the world by a very wide margin. We have approximately 5 percent of the world’s population, but we have approximately 25 percent of the world’s incarcerated population. #8 According to the FBI, 33,000 criminal gangs are operating inside the United States today… Some 33,000 violent street gangs, motorcycle gangs, and prison gangs are criminally active in the U.S. today. Many are sophisticated and well organized; all use violence to control neighborhoods and boost their illegal money-making activities, which include robbery, drug and gun trafficking, prostitution and human trafficking, and fraud. Many gang members continue to commit crimes even after being sent to jail. #9 Collectively, it has been estimated that those gangs have about a million members. #10 Gangs account for about 80 percent of the violent crimes that are committed in the U.S. each year. #11 In 2023, there were 127,436 rapes reported in the United States. #12 For the most recent year that we have data, it was being estimated that more than 550,000 U.S. children “were victims of abuse and neglect”… An estimated 558,899 children (unique incidents) were victims of abuse and neglect in the U.S. in 2022, the most recent year for which there is national data. #13 If you can believe it, there are 795,000 registered sex offenders in this country. More than 795,000 people were listed on state sex offender registries as of August 2024. This is about 8,000 more people than in 2023. #14 There are 75,710 registered sex offenders in the state of Texas. #15 There are 60,615 registered sex offenders in the state of California. What in the world is wrong with us? What would cause people to behave this way? At this point, our society is literally teeming with evil. In my brand new book entitled “Why”, I take a look at the root causes that motivate people to do what they do. It isn’t an accident that our society has gone completely and utterly nuts. It is simply a result of cause and effect. As a society, we have been doing the wrong things for a very long time, and so now we have a giant mess on our hands. Let us hope for better things in 2025, because right now lawlessness is thriving all around us. * * * Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 16:25
Biden Unveils Bigger 'Surge' In Arms To Ukraine, With Just 3 Weeks Till Trump Sworn In
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Biden Unveils Bigger 'Surge' In Arms To Ukraine, With Just 3 Weeks Till Trump Sworn In The last week has seen sustained major Russian strikes involving drone and missile barrages targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure. This followed a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian residential building in Kazan, which is far away from the front lines. Wednesday alone saw Russia fire some 170 drones and missiles at Ukrainian energy infrastructure, causing several deaths and widespread power outages. "The purpose of this outrageous attack was to cut off the Ukrainian people’s access to heat and electricity during winter and to jeopardize the safety of its grid," Biden commented in the aftermath. With a little over three weeks to go until President-Elect Donald Trump enters the White House, President Biden has ordered a 'surge' in US weapons to the Zelensky government. Via Reuters "In recent months, the United States has provided Ukraine with hundreds of air defense missiles, and more are on the way," Biden said, and stressed: "I have directed the Department of Defense to continue its surge of weapons deliveries to Ukraine, and the United States will continue to work tirelessly to strengthen Ukraine’s position in its defense against Russian forces." Biden also sought to emphasize the holiday the timing of the attack - though it should be noted that the Orthodox Church in both Russia and Ukraine observe Christmas on December 25th according to the Julian calendar, which is January 7th on the civil calendar. Thus Christmas in the region is actually still a week-and-a-half away... "Launching large-scale missile and drone attacks on the day of the Lord's birth is wrong," Biden asserted. "The world is closely watching actions on both sides. The U.S. is more resolved than ever to bring peace to the region." Thursday saw Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responding to Biden's warnings by saying the Kremlin could still order attacks on Ukraine’s decision-making centers. "We select targets for strikes on the territory of Ukraine, proceeding solely from threats to Russia. These may be military facilities and defense enterprises," Lavrov said. "Decision-making centers in Kiev can also quite be such targets," he added. On Friday White House national security official John Kirby announced that the US is set to approve yet another security package for Ukraine as part of the 'surge' in arms. The Associated Press details Friday afternoon: The United States is expected to announce that it will send $1.25 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, U.S. officials said Friday, as the Biden administration pushes to get as much aid to Kyiv as possible before leaving office on Jan. 20. The large package of aid includes a significant amount of munitions, including for the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems and the HAWK air defense system. It also will provide Stinger missiles and 155 mm- and 105 mm artillery rounds, officials said. But by many accounts on the ground, Ukraine's chief disadvantage lies more in severe manpower shortages in the face of the advancing Russians. This extra surge in weaponry is not expected to make a big difference on the battlefield. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 15:40
MEGA '25: How Trump Can Make Ethereum Great Again In 2025
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MEGA '25: How Trump Can Make Ethereum Great Again In 2025 Authored by Tom Mitchelhill via CoinTelegraph.com, Ethereum’s Ether has been marred by under-performance over the last 18 months, seeing Bitcoin and a swathe of other alternative layer-1 coins, including the likes of Solana and Sui, dramatically outperforming it. While ETH has gained 88% in the last 18 months, SOL has posted a 1,040% gain, and SUI has rallied 448% in the same timeframe. “ETH got sandwiched in 2024 between two shiny objects: Bitcoin, which attracted a huge amount of institutional interest, and Solana, which gained traction with retail investors. ETH was the odd man out,” Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan told Cointelegraph. However, many crypto pundits believe the election of Donald Trump in the United States and the expected crypto-friendly stance of key agencies under his new administration could mark the turning point for the performance of Ether in the crypto market. After all, the incoming president’s family launched its own decentralized finance (DeFi) project, World Liberty Financial, on the chain. Experts are looking at a swathe of new developments for a bullish stance on ETH heading into 2025, ranging from the demise of “financial nihilism” to a complete overhaul of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, positive regulatory developments, Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF) staking, and increased Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight of crypto. Alternative layer-1 coins like SOL and SUI have drastically outperformed ETH. Source: TradingView “Ethereum is poised to benefit more [from a Trump win] than other protocols, especially since it’s just a lot bigger and more mature than all the other ecosystems other than Bitcoin, which is mature but narrow in its purview,” Consensys CEO Joe Lubin told Cointelegraph at Devcon 2024. At the same time, the gloss has started to come off Solana, whose SOL token peaked at an all-time high of $264 a month ago but has since retreated to $192 amid concerns over looming token unlocks. End of crypto’s financial nihilism One of the big factors weighing heavily on Ethereum’s price has been the aggressive approach of regulators toward alleged securities violations by ecosystem projects including Uniswap, Consensys, Lido and Rocket Pool. Memecoin projects, meanwhile, have been largely overlooked by the SEC. A related issue is the disillusionment of crypto natives who were dumped on by venture capitalists during the brutal bear market. Many have turned to fair-launch memecoins and other hyper-speculative assets with little utility. Ikigai Asset Management founder and chief investment officer Travis Kling calls this phenomenon “financial nihilism.” In a March 12 essay, Kling said financial nihilism gives little if any importance to “fundamentals” or any notion of an underlying “value proposition.” “Financial Nihilism goes hand in hand with Populism – a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.” “The underlying drivers of Financial Nihilism and Populism are the same – this system is not working for me, so I want to try something very different (e.g., buy SHIB or vote for Trump),” wrote Kling. However, Ethereum is sold almost entirely on its fundamentals and utility. Advocates repeatedly make the claim that the blockchain network and its ecosystem of layer 2s stand as the future of legitimate, programmable digital money, smart contracts and decentralized financial activity. Trump’s SEC overhaul is good for DeFi Saul Rejwan, managing partner of crypto venture capital firm Masterkey, says Trump’s pro-crypto stance could see financial nihilism fall out of favor as legitimate projects are encouraged by regulators rather than hit with endless Wells notices from the SEC. On Dec. 4, Trump tapped pro-crypto businessman and former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins as his nominee for the next SEC chair, with current Chair Gary Gensler set to resign from the agency on Jan. 20. The SEC will be losing three of its Democratic commissioners under Trump, with Jaime Lizarraga set to leave the agency on Jan. 17 and, more recently, the Senate Banking Committee canceling the renomination vote of crypto-skeptic commissioner Caroline Crenshaw on Dec. 17. As the ruling party, the Republicans would typically appoint a majority of three commissioners, but the rapid-fire resignations and cancellations open the SEC up to a possible line-up of four Republican-appointed, crypto-friendly commissioners if Trump breaks protocol. Rejwan told Cointelegraph that legitimate sectors of the crypto industry, specifically DeFi and decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN), stand to benefit most from the new administration and a more crypto-friendly SEC. “DeFi projects will thrive under a more favorable regulatory environment. Sectors like restaking just need a little regulatory push to hook institutional investors,” he said. “We expect this new leadership to lower barriers to entry and make it easier for early-stage crypto entrepreneurs and resilient firms to innovate and thrive.” The Gensler-led SEC under the Biden administration has been famously hostile to DeFi, with the regulator bringing Uniswap, the largest decentralized exchange on Ethereum, into its sights earlier this year. The SEC has proposed expanding the definition of what qualifies as an exchange in the Exchange Act of 1934, explicitly arguing it should include crypto market participants in DeFi. Anoop Nannra, CEO of Trugard Labs, said he expects the SEC to undergo a complete overhaul of its enforcement actions and policy directions, saying crypto assets are slated to be classified as “property” under the new administration. “I’ve heard from several people within Trump’s orbit that property rights are a critical issue for this administration and that this is actually going to be the calling card for the Republican party’s position on crypto,” he said. “I expect to see a complete revamp of the SEC's position based on this.” On Dec. 19, the Token Alliance — which incoming SEC Chair Paul Atkins was co-chair of — met with staffers for SEC Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda and issued its list of priorities. It requested that the agency denounce the controversial 2018 “Hinman speech” and formally withdraw a series of rules that deemed DeFi players to be seen as “exchanges” by law. The Token Alliance has asked the SEC to walk back a swathe of anti-crypto policies. Source: The Digital Chamber Nannra said he also expects the CFTC will soften to digital assets as well and that the SEC will engage in more discussions with the CFTC moving forward. “I expect to see the CFTC take a more progressive position on crypto as well, further re-aligning the oversight powers between the SEC and the CFTC,” Nannra said. SEC vs. CFTC: Does FIT21 even matter? Many pundits believe that the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) — a bill that was passed through the House in May — would be central to the alignment of the CFTC and the SEC on crypto. In short, the bill sought to introduce a federal framework for crypto regulation, pull back some of the SEC’s authority over digital assets, and hand over regulation of spot crypto markets to the CFTC instead. Because Ether has also been deemed a commodity by the CFTC, several pundits have previously asserted that FIT21 could be highly beneficial for Ethereum from a policy perspective. But now, with the change in the regulatory landscape, it raises the question of whether or not the FIT21 bill would be necessary or even desirable anymore. The bill may end up becoming just an unnecessary policy bargain made during a hostile time for crypto assets. In a Nov. 15 client alert, lawyers from legal firm Brownstein noted the bill had stalled but would likely “serve as the starting point for legislative efforts in the new Congress.” Regardless of whether FIT21 passes, Trump is reportedly considering handing the CFTC oversight over crypto during his upcoming term, which would also classify most crypto projects as commodities if they meet certain criteria. If the CFTC is given regulatory control of crypto, it could come as a win for the industry, which has long signaled that the agency would be its preferred regulator — with the CFTC widely seen as having a “lighter touch” on regulation. What legal changes can we expect to see under Trump? Crypto lawyer Robert Nupp told Cointelegraph that the launch of the Trump dynasty’s World Liberty Financial was one the biggest “soft” endorsements of Ethereum, DeFi and real-world crypto projects. It has already purchased millions of dollars worth of ETH, Chainlink LINK$22.18 and Aave AAVE$326.14. Nupp believes many within crypto are actually underestimating the positive impact of Trump on the industry. “Right out of the gate, they’re going to be extremely helpful to crypto.” Source: Lookonchain According to Nupp, Trump is using World Liberty Financial as a beacon to show the world exactly how he intends to deal with crypto when he becomes president. “He’s basically signaling to the world that it’s okay to do this going forward in his administration,” he said. Nupp also tipped the Trump administration to move extremely quickly on crypto, pointing out Trump’s close ties with Elon Musk and the appointment of David Sacks as crypto and AI czar as evidence of the pace he will set. “It's going to be a blitzkrieg.” ETH staking yields could come to ETFs SEC Commissioner Peirce has already flagged the potential of revisiting decisions to block in-kind redemptions for crypto ETFs and to add staking for the Ether ETFs. “If it changes from a majority of commissioners who don’t want things to go through to a majority of commissioners who do want things to go through, then yeah, it’s easier,” she said. The ETF issuers — including Fidelity, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton — have all requested the addition of staking, which currently yields approximately 3.1% per year, according to Staking Rewards. “We believe, under a new Trump 2.0 crypto-friendly SEC, ETH staking yield will likely be approved,” Bernstein said, predicting that growing network activity on Ethereum could see rewards “juice up” to 4%–5%. Ethereum boasts a 3.11% staking reward rate as of Dec. 24. Source: Staking Rewards It doesn’t take much to connect the dots on why an ETF offering native yield would be bullish for the underlying asset, particularly in an economic landscape where the US Federal Reserve is looking to drop interest rates further in 2025. “In a declining rate environment, ETH yield can be quite attractive. The yield feature in ETFs would also leave some spread for asset managers,” Bernstein said, adding that this would improve ETH’s economics and introduce further incentives to push ETH ETFs to institutional investors. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 15:20
The Deep State, The Media, And Academics Circle Their Wagons Against Kash Patel
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The Deep State, The Media, And Academics Circle Their Wagons Against Kash Patel Authored by Andrea Widburg via AmericanThinker.com, Kash Patel has promised that, if he becomes head of the FBI, he will reveal the secrets it’s unlawfully hidden, call to account the FBI employees (from the top down) who have violated the law, and end illegal FBI activities. Deep State operatives and their friends in the media and academia call this a form of impermissible loyalty to Donald Trump. Americans, however, call this laudable loyalty to the American people and the rule of law. It’s to be hoped that Republicans in the Senate listen to the American people and not to the siren song of the Swamp. One of the Deep Staters who seems very worried that the FBI will be forced onto the straight and narrow is William Webster, one of the deepest of the Deep Staters. Webster started working for the federal government in the early 1950s and retired only 70 years later, in 2020. Over the course of his career, this centenarian has been a US Attorney in Missouri, a district court judge in Missouri, an appellate judge in Missouri, the director of the FBI, the director of the CIA, and the chair of the Homeland Security Advisory Council. I do not consider this a glowing resume. I consider it a terrifying one and wouldn’t trust Webster as far as I could throw him. According to Politico, Webster is sounding the alarm about Patel: A former head of the FBI and CIA is raising objections over whether Kash Patel and Tulsi Gabbard, President-elect Donald Trump's picks to be directors of the FBI and national intelligence, respectively, are qualified to serve in the Cabinet. In a letter to senators on Thursday, William Webster, the only person to lead both the FBI and CIA, wrote that neither nominee meets the demands of top intelligence jobs. Webster, who is 100 years old, praised Patel's patriotism but wrote that his allegiance to Trump was concerning. “His record of executing the president’s directives suggest a loyalty to individuals rather than the rule of law - a dangerous precedent for an agency tasked with impartial enforcement of justice,” he said. Now, maybe I missed it, but I don’t recall a squeak from Webster about the FBI’s heinous abuses under Obama or Biden, or when they were ostensibly reporting to Trump while trying to destroy. As best as I can tell, Webster was silent when Obama spied on congresspeople and journalists. He then maintained that silence about the Russia Hoax, the Ukraine hoax, the framing of the half-witted “Whitmer kidnapping” defendants, the attacks on parents speaking out at school board meetings, the spying on traditional Catholics, the all-out war against the January 6ers (something that stands in complete contrast to the pass that the FBI routinely gave leftist protestors), the way the FBI consistently protected Biden and his whole family, and the vicious persecution of pro-life activists...just to name a few examples of blatant FBI partisanship. Webster’s photos show a nice-looking old man, but when I imagine this government insider terrified of a clean broom coming into the FBI and forcing it to abide by the law, my mind’s eye summons up a very different image. The panic about a new broom at the FBI also showed up in ludicrous fashion at The New Yorker, which chose to publish an academic’s essay putting J. Edgar Hoover up on a pedestal as a model of virtuous non-partisanship compared to Patel. I’m not exaggerating. This is how Beverly Gage’s essay opens: Since President-elect Donald Trump announced his intention of appointing his political loyalist Kash Patel as the director of the F.B.I., critics have warned that we’re heading back to the bad old days of J. Edgar Hoover. The F.B.I. should be so lucky. Hoover, for all his many faults and abuses of power, was nevertheless an institution builder; he believed in the F.B.I.’s nonpartisan independence. The essay goes on from there, a perfect hagiography of a virtuous man who cross-dressed, hid his homosexual relationships, and tried to destroy Civil Rights activists. What’s so funny about this is that, as I vividly recall from my youth, the left despised Hoover because they believed that he was the ultimate partisan, using his vast, mostly self-acquired power to destroy communists and anyone else he didn’t like. Gage’s claim to write with such authority about the wonders of Hoover’s FBI tenure is that she is a Yale professor who wrote a Pulitzer Prize-winning biography about Hoover. (Nowadays, the Pulitzer Prize is like a rattlesnake warning that a book or article is a leftist wet dream.) What’s so fascinating about her love affair with Hoover is how it differs from a two-year-old interview that Gage did with The Jacobin. There, she explains how the left rightly despised Hoover because of his blatant, noxious, dangerous partisanship. Mary McCarthy famously said of the communist Lillian Hellman that “everything she says is a lie, including ‘and’ and ‘the.’” That could be written on the tombstones of America’s media, political insiders, and academics. As I said at the start of this essay, unless the Senators have nasty secrets that only the FBI knows, they will serve the American people best if they affirm the Kash Patel nomination. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 14:40
Houthis Target Israel's Ben Gurion Airport In Overnight Ballistic Missile Attack
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Houthis Target Israel's Ben Gurion Airport In Overnight Ballistic Missile Attack Despite yesterday's wide-ranging Israel aerial assault on Yemen, the Houthis have hit back - showing they remain undeterred in their willingness to attack Israel - having launched an overnight ballistic missile on Tel Aviv. The missile was reportedly intercepted by air defenses before it entered Israeli airspace, but a Houthi spokesman claimed that Ben Gurion international airport was targeted in a significant escalation. The Houthis even claim it was hit. Times of Israel notes that the population of central Israel has been on edge: "For the fifth night in the last eight days, sirens sounded in large swathes of central Israel overnight Thursday-Friday, after another ballistic missile attack by Yemen’s Houthis." Via CBC The same report indicated that some 20 people were hurt amid the panic and evacuations, with 18 of those slightly injured while rushing to bomb shelters and two suffering anxiety attacks. The Houthi statement said that "the missile succeeded in reaching its target despite the enemy’s censorship, and the operation resulted in casualties and the cessation of navigation at the airport." But the Israeli military confirmed that there were no strikes which hit the airport or its vicinity. A drone was also reportedly sent from Yemen but didn't appear to cause damage. Despite Israel stepping up its attacks on Yemen, including Netanyahu's recent vow to hunt down Houthi leadership, the Houthis have vowed to not stop the attacks "until the aggression on Gaza stops and the siege is lifted." Days ago, Defense Minister Israel Katz said that the leaders of the Yemeni group have made themselves targets. Taking them out will now be a top priority for the Israeli military. "Just as we took care of Sinwar in Gaza, Haniyeh in Tehran and Nasrallah in Beirut, we will deal with the heads of the Houthis in Sana’a or anywhere in Yemen," Katz has said in the Tuesday comments, making reference to the slain leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas. "We will act both against their infrastructure and against them to remove the threat," he pledged while inspecting an Arrow air defense system battery which just intercepted the latest Houthi missile attack. NEW: Yemen's Houthis launched another ballistic missile toward Tel Aviv following Israeli airstrikes on Yemen yesterday. The missile was intercepted by Israel. pic.twitter.com/ElZO1SJ20G — Clash Report (@clashreport) December 27, 2024 He also again called out Iran, warning that "whoever sponsors the Houthi terror in Hodeida or Sana’a will pay the full price." Washington has for years documented Tehran's support to the group, which has included advanced missiles and drone technology. This has allowed the threat out of Yemen to grow significantly. Last Saturday saw one of the biggest Houthi strikes to date, coming in the form of a reported hypersonic ballistic missile which hit Tel Aviv, leaving 16 people injured. And Tuesday morning saw another Houthi missile launch on Israel, which at that point had marked the third such attack in less than a week. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 14:20
A Tale Of Two Economies: The 'Vibecession' Of The Past 4 Years
1735326300 from ZEROHEDGE
A Tale Of Two Economies: The 'Vibecession' Of The Past 4 Years Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times, Economists have described the past four years as the “vibecession,” a disconnect between Americans’ feelings about the economy and the data. It was the consensus view on Wall Street that the economy would slide into a recession, but economic conditions have defied expectations. Gross domestic product (GDP) has expanded at a solid pace, the labor market has added millions of new jobs, and the inflation growth rate has eased from its June 2022 peak. If this is the current state of the world’s largest economy, why have U.S. households been down? Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was asked about this at the December post-policy meeting press conference, and he attributed this pessimistic view to the “tremendous pain” of high prices. “Prices went up by a great deal, and people really feel that, and it’s prices of food and transportation and heating your home and things like that. So there’s tremendous pain in that burst of inflation that was very global,” Powell said. “Now we have inflation itself is way down, but people are still feeling high prices. And that is really what people are feeling.” Indeed, inflation has been and continues to be the main story in today’s economy. Inflation and GDP Over the past four years, inflation has eaten away many gains made throughout the economy. Consumer prices have soared by about 21 percent, while producer prices—a gauge of prices paid by businesses for goods and services at the wholesale level—have surged by about 24 percent. Americans’ purchasing power has also eroded by 17 percent. The current administration has touted the labor market’s strength, with wage growth at the top of its accomplishments. While nominal (non-inflation-adjusted) wage growth has soared, real (inflation-adjusted) wage growth has been stuck in subzero terrain throughout President Joe Biden’s term. As a result, households have been struggling to keep up with sky-high living expenses, whether utilities or food. At the same time, the inflation bomb that went off in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic also weighed on economic advances. Retail sales, for example, have soared, indicating that consumers have strong balance sheets. However, after adjusting for inflation, retail sales have flatlined, suggesting that consumers spent more for the same or less. Some economists assert that inflation might have been undercounted and growth overstated. In October, economists EJ Antoni and Peter St Onge published a study in Brownstone Journal, concluding that the cumulative inflation has been understated by nearly half and cumulative growth might have been “overstated by roughly 15 [percent].” “Even without considering population growth and per capita GDP, the adjusted real GDP values imply that the nation entered a recession in the first quarter of 2022 and remained in that contraction through the second quarter of 2024,” they wrote. That said, the official U.S. government data suggest that growth prospects have been robust, even in a climate of higher interest rates and geopolitical risks. Under the Biden administration, real GDP rose by 12.6 percent, according to the White House. In 2024, the United States is poised to register a 2.5 percent growth rate. By comparison, his predecessor, President Donald Trump, oversaw an economy that expanded by about 7 percent. Spending and Deficits The federal government is running a sizable budget deficit as if it were in a recession, war, or pandemic. Despite that the economy is growing and running at full employment, the deficit as a share of the GDP is about 7 percent. The last times the deficit-to-GDP ratio was this high were during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The national debt clock at a bus station in Washington on Nov. 26, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times Washington faces a challenge because spending continues to grow. Federal outlays are up by 47 percent from before the public health crisis, exceeding $7 trillion. Likewise, the national debt has increased by more than $8 trillion since January 2021, reaching $36.2 trillion. Although resilient consumers and their spending patterns have been the main drivers of meteoric growth, government consumption has also played a prominent role in the economy’s growth. In the third quarter, when the U.S. economy rose by 3.1 percent, expenditures from all three levels of government contributed 28 percent to the rise in GDP. At the federal level, net government outlays account for less than one-quarter of the GDP, up from about one-fifth before the pandemic. The economic literature states that cutting government spending would be a net benefit for the economy. More resources would stay in the private sector and be efficiently allocated toward productive uses rather than government edicts. A significant portion of federal revenues has been dedicated to debt servicing payments, which are taxpayer funds that will not produce anything critical for the long-term success of the broader economy. Consumer Sentiment From higher prices to ballooning debt, households maintained a sour outlook on the economy. NBC News exit poll data show that heading into the voting booth on Election Day in November, nearly half (45 percent) of voters said they were financially worse off than they were four years earlier. Consumer sentiment improved in December for the fifth consecutive month. Despite the jump, the public’s view of the economy has failed to return to pre-crisis levels. The widely watched University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reached an all-time high in February 2020. After plummeting to a record low in June 2022, it has steadily rebounded, although it is still below the high observed under the previous administration. Alternatively, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has also failed to recover from its highs in 2018 and 2019. Over the past four years, households have endured daily sticker shocks, whether for a carton of eggs or a visit to the dentist. Many goods and services are more expensive, and consumers see their paychecks unable to cover these higher costs. This has forced millions of Americans to take on more debt. According to New York Fed statistics, household debt has soared by about $3.3 trillion since the first quarter of 2021. One culprit of this upward trend has been credit card debt, which rose by approximately $400 billion in this span to a record $1.17 trillion. An October Civic Science survey found that 41 percent of Americans rely on debt to stay afloat. The 2025 Outlook According to a recent Bankrate survey, 44 percent of Americans think their personal financial situation will improve next year, up from 37 percent at the end of 2023. The top financial objective for 21 percent of Americans? Paying down debt. “Inflation has faded, but it hasn’t gone away,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, said in a statement. “With interest rates still elevated, it is encouraging to see the top financial goal is to pay down debt. Average credit card interest rates top 20 [percent], still close to a record high. Targeting high-cost debt can provide an immediate benefit.” Eradicating price inflation from the collective consciousness of the American people might be the road to bolstering consumer sentiment in 2025 and beyond. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 14:05
WTI Extends Gains After Another Crude Draw, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom
1735325100 from ZEROHEDGE
WTI Extends Gains After Another Crude Draw, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom Oil prices were slightly higher on Friday as Israeli strikes against Yemen's Houthi rebels triggered what Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research described as a "fear bid" for the commodity. "This is a geopolitics-driven market," Melek said. "We're a little worried about events around the Red Sea and potentially getting shipments interrupted in the broader region," he added. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by more than expected last week and product stocks were mixed as refineries raised their capacity use, according to official data released (on a delay due to the holiday) from DOE. Crude -4.24mm Cushing -320k Gasoline +1.63mm Distillates -1.69mm This is the 5th straight week of crude stock drawdowns and sixth straight week of gasoline builds... Source: Bloomberg Cushing stocks fell back near 'tank bottoms' once again (lowest since Oct 2023)... Source: Bloomberg WTI extended the day's gains on the crude draw, holding solidly above $70... Source: Bloomberg Crude is on track for a modest annual loss, with trading confined in a narrow band since mid-October. There are widespread concerns the market may be oversupplied next year as China’s demand slows and global production expands, although traders remain cautious about potentially tighter US sanctions against flows from Iran under Donald Trump. The prompt spread on WTI futs - with the nearby contract trading at a premium of more than 40 cents a barrel to the next in line - points to near-term supply tightness. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 13:45
New York To Charge Fossil Fuel Companies Billions For Greenhouse Gas Emissions
1735323900 from ZEROHEDGE
New York To Charge Fossil Fuel Companies Billions For Greenhouse Gas Emissions Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times, The state of New York will charge carbon-emitting companies an estimated $75 billion in climate damage they allegedly caused between 2000 and 2018 under a law enacted on Dec. 26. Gov. Kathy Hochul signed the Climate Change Superfund Act into law on Thursday. The law is certain to be challenged in court as a state preemption of federal regulatory oversight. Adopted by lawmakers in June, the law—which goes into effect in 2028—will annually assess large companies’ carbon emissions across those first 19 years of the 21st century to “repair damage caused by extreme weather” they said aggravated by greenhouse gas emissions. “New York has fired a shot that will be heard round the world: the companies most responsible for the climate crisis will be held accountable,” said Democratic state Sen. Liz Krueger, a lead sponsor of the New York Climate Change Superfund Act. The bill estimates compliance will cost about three dozen of the state’s largest carbon-emitting companies about $3 billion collectively each year for the next 25 years—$75 billion in total. That would be 15 percent of the $500 billion the Fiscal Policy Institute estimates the law could actually end up costing by 2050. “With nearly every record rainfall, heat wave, and coastal storm, New Yorkers are increasingly burdened with billions of dollars in health, safety, and environmental consequences due to polluters that have historically harmed our environment,” Hochul said in a Dec. 26 statement released by her office, noting that $500 billion equates to “more than $65,000 per household.” The money will go into a Climate Change Adaptation Cost Recovery Program to restore and protect coastal wetlands, and upgrade roads, bridges, and stormwater systems, among other infrastructure resiliency projects and programs. New York’s law is modeled after the 1980 federal Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), or Superfund law, which requires companies responsible for pollution to pay for cleanup and remediation of polluted land, water, and air. New York is the second state to adopt a “polluter pays” liability law. Vermont lawmakers earlier in 2024 adopted its law that was enacted July 1 without Republican Gov. Phil Scott’s signature. It requires the state treasurer to calculate damages from “climate change-caused disasters,” as well as the expenses the state is incurring to adapt to changing conditions such as increasing precipitation in assessing carbon emitters. Once those calculations are tabulated, Vermont will assess companies responsible for more than 1 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions over the past 30 years, levied as a “proportional to its share of global emissions.” New Jersey lawmakers, in recess from an underway 2024–2025 session, are likely to adopt in early 2025 Senate Bill 3545, the Climate Superfund Act, which would be similar to New York’s law. It was introduced in the Senate in September, advanced through a Senate Environment and Energy Committee hearing on Dec. 12, and has been referred to the Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee. This year, “polluter pays” bills were also introduced in Massachusetts, California, Maryland, and Minnesota that are likely to be reintroduced when 2025 state legislative sessions convene. Advocates such as 350 Mass, an environmental nonprofit, say adopting a 2025 version of 2024 SB 481 is a top priority in Massachusetts. California’s SB 1497, the Polluters Pay Climate Cost Recovery Act of 2024, passed through Senate appropriations, judiciary, and environmental quality committees and died on the Senate’s “inactive file” in November. Maryland’s RENEW Act of 2024 seeks to levy penalties on the 40 biggest greenhouse gas emitters over the past two decades to generate $900 million a year in revenues. New York State Sen. Liz Krueger (D-Manhattan) and members of Met Council on Housing, Common Cause, and the Fair Elections Coalition on Aug. 12, 2013, at the REBNY headquarters in Midtown Manhattan. Ivan Pentchoukov/The Epoch Times ‘New Horizons’ The mushrooming number of “polluter pays” state liability laws is a way for states to establish stable regulatory standards in a time of federal upheaval, economists suggest. As documented in a Columbia University Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law March 2024 analysis by Martin Lockman and Emma Shumway, and in a July 2024 National Law review analysis by Aliza R. Cinamon, state Superfund laws are a “new horizon” in shielding taxpayers from costs imposed by polluters. The state Superfund bills, including New York’s, have drawn heated opposition and rebuke from businesses and industry that coalesced as the Better Plan, No Bans coalition. Also among opponents are the National Fuel Gas Co., New York Farm Bureau, National Mining Association, New Yorkers for Affordable Energy, and the American Petroleum Institute. “An ‘all-of-the-above’ approach that uses renewables, natural gas, and current delivery systems can help New York State reach emission mandates while prioritizing energy affordability and reliability,” National Fuel Gas Co. in a Dec. 10 X post appealed to Hochul to veto the bill. The New York Business Council, a statewide association of 3,200 employers, maintains local governments and states should not be making federal energy policy, saying “polluter pays” concepts “unjustly focus on the energy sector,” damaging an industry that every segment of the economy benefits from. Krueger said New York state and corporate accountability advocates are ready to defend the law in the courts and in legislative chambers nationwide. “Too often over the last decade, courts have dismissed lawsuits against the oil and gas industry by saying that the issue of climate culpability should be decided by legislatures,” she said in the Dec. 26 statement. “Well, the Legislature of the State of New York—the 10th largest economy in the world—has accepted the invitation.” Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 13:25
US Retail Sales Surge Over Holiday Season As Retailers Ramp Up Promotions, Says Mastercard
1735322700 from ZEROHEDGE
US Retail Sales Surge Over Holiday Season As Retailers Ramp Up Promotions, Says Mastercard Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times, Retail sales rose by nearly 4 percent year over year across the United States this holiday season as more Americans sought bargains during the November and Black Friday shopping period, according to new data from Mastercard SpendingPulse. Mastercard analyzed in-store and online retail sales across the country from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24, with the company tracking all payment types, including cash and debit cards. The data has not been adjusted for inflation and excludes automotive sales. According to Mastercard, overall retail sales were up 3.8 percent this holiday season from 2023, when they increased by 3.1 percent from the previous year. The last five days of the holiday season this year accounted for 10 percent of all holiday spending, it said. The growth was partly driven by consumers responding to promotions during the November and Black Friday shopping period, along with more spending leading up to Christmas Eve, Mastercard said. Major retailers, including Walmart and Amazon.com, ramped up promotions to entice shoppers during this year’s shorter-than-usual holiday season. According to Mastercard, shoppers splurged mostly on jewelry, which saw sales rise by 4 percent, followed by electronics (3.7 percent) and apparel (3.6 percent) from last year. Additionally, consumer demand for experiences such as dining out saw a marked increase this holiday season, with restaurant spending growth increasing by 6.3 percent year on year, Mastercard found. Shoppers also appeared to prefer making purchases online this year, according to the preliminary insights. The data show that online retail sales grew by 6.7 percent from November to December this year from 2023, while in-store sales increased by 2.9 percent. Notably, most Americans who shopped online purchased apparel, and that sector saw a 6.7 percent increase in online purchases from last year. Shoppers Searching for Bargains Mastercard found that some cities—particularly Tampa and Phoenix—emerged as leaders in e-commerce during the 2024 holiday season, with a 10.6 percent and 10 percent growth in e-commerce sales, respectively, compared to 2023. Minneapolis, Dallas, Charlotte, Orlando, and Houston also came in well above the national total for e-commerce sales compared to last year, Mastercard said. Rising retail sales occurred even though consumers faced higher prices this year amid lingering inflation, suggesting that budget-conscious shoppers are still willing to part with their cash as long as they can get a bargain. Michelle Meyer, chief economist at Mastercard Economics Institute, said the holiday shopping season “revealed a consumer who is willing and able to spend but driven by a search for value,” as seen by concentrated online spending during the biggest promotional periods. “Solid spending during this holiday season underscores the strength we observed from the consumer all year, supported by the healthy labor market and household wealth gains,” Meyer said. Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, and the latest data highlight a resilient consumer despite economic uncertainty. A broader picture of how Americans are spending their money will be available in January when the National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, releases its two-month sales figures from the Commerce Department. The latest data come shortly after the Federal Reserve announced its third consecutive interest rate cut of 2024, lowering the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent. However, the central bank also said it expects just two rate cuts in 2025, half a percentage point less than it forecasted in September, suggesting officials are opting for a more conservative approach to loosening monetary policy. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 13:05
Our Lying Eyes: New Photo Shows Biden With Hunter's Business Associates Despite Past Denials
1735321500 from ZEROHEDGE
Our Lying Eyes: New Photo Shows Biden With Hunter's Business Associates Despite Past Denials Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org, “Lies.” That response was a mantra for President Joe Biden, who denied ever meeting or knowing about his son’s foreign dealings. Despite the pronounced lack of interest by most media outlets in the alleged multimillion dollar influence-peddling scheme, the House and conservative groups have doggedly pursued the matter and found overwhelming evidence that the President has repeatedly lied about his interactions with foreign clients. Now, a new photo further contradicts the President, who recently pardoned his son for any crimes committed over a ten-year period. America First Legal has been engaged in a prolonged legal fight with the National Archives to get access to the undisclosed evidence. It recently won critical rulings forcing the release. The discovery includes this photo of then-vice president Joe Biden meeting with Hunter and his clients. It adds to an already ample photographic and testimonial record contradicting the President’s past denials. The House has released records showing $27 million in payments from foreign sources to Hunter Biden and his business partners from 2014 to 2019. Hunter used official trips with his father to facilitate some of these associations. Despite denying meeting with these clients or knowing anything about his son’s dealings, it was later revealed that Biden was repeatedly put on a speakerphone with clients, attended dinners, and took pictures with them, including BHR Partners CEO Jonathan Li. A key witness said that he sat down with Joe Biden specifically to discuss these foreign deals with this son. Joe Biden later wrote college recommendation letters for Li’s son and daughter. In the summer of 2019, Li wired Hunter Biden $250,000 that originated in Beijing and had Joe Biden’s Delaware home as the beneficiary address. There were diamonds as gifts, lavish expense accounts, and a sports car, in addition to massive payments that Hunter claimed were “loans.” There are messages like the one to a Chinese businessman openly threatening the displeasure of Joe Biden if money is not sent to them immediately. In the WhatsApp message, Hunter stated: “I am sitting here with my father, and we would like to understand why the commitment made has not been fulfilled. Tell the director that I would like to resolve this now before it gets out of hand, and now means tonight. And, Z, if I get a call or text from anyone involved in this other than you, Zhang, or the Chairman, I will make certain that between the man sitting next to me and every person he knows and my ability to forever hold a grudge that you will regret not following my direction. I am sitting here waiting for the call with my father.” After years of ignoring the influence-peddling scandal, the media is not likely to suddenly pursue the story. In the meantime, Democrats have praised or rationalized Biden for pardoning his son despite the fact that it covered possible crimes that might implicate not just Hunter but his father in corruption. Only two out of ten Americans support the pardon. However, Sen. Dick Durbin (D., Ill.), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and Senate majority whip, called it a “labor of love.” And, as we learned in a certain 1970 film, “Love means never having to say you’re sorry” . . . particularly when you have pardon power. Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.” Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 12:45
Ski Weather At Vail Resorts "Solid" With Above-Average Snowfall At Northeast Slopes
1735320300 from ZEROHEDGE
Ski Weather At Vail Resorts "Solid" With Above-Average Snowfall At Northeast Slopes The latest note from Barclays' Brandt Montour on Vail Resorts, the world's largest ski resort operator—including Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, Park City Mountain, Whistler Blackcomb, Stowe, and 32 other resorts across North America—maintains an optimistic outlook on the 2024-2025 North American ski season. Montour said the ski season has seen "solid season-to-date snowfall and temperatures, although we note that snow depth has recently dipped slightly below historical averages (still well ahead of last year)." He noted snowfall across resorts in the western regions plateaued in late November and early December, while average temperatures have risen slightly. However, he said that overall season-to-date snowfall and below-freezing days remain solidly above long-term averages. Snow Depth Season-to-Date: Western Resorts Average Daily Temperature Season-to-Date At Park City, Breckenridge, Vail, Heavenly, Whistler Blackcomb, Stowe, and Hunter Mountain Resort Cumulative Days Below Freezing Season-to-Date At Park City, Breckenridge, Vail, Heavenly, Whistler Blackcomb, Stowe, and Hunter Ski Resorts Snowfall Season-to-Date Across Park City, Breckenridge, Vail, Keystone, Beaver Creek, Heavenly, Whistler Blackcomb, Stowe, Okemo, Mount Snow, and Hunter Mountain Resorts Snowfall Season-to-Date: Eastern Resorts Across Stowe, Okemo, Mount Snow, and Hunter Mountain Resort Snowfall Season-to-Date: Pacific Northwest Resorts, Including Whistler Blackcomb Mountain Resort The good news is that colder temperatures and snowier conditions across the Northeast this ski season have improved conditions compared to previous years. However, Montour pointed out, "Bigger picture, the season is off to a solid start from a weather stand-point, but though it's still early, the realization of ski demand is more uncertain." And why is that? Too costly to ski? Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 12:25
Court Blocks Chicago Mayor From Firing Chicago Public Schools CEO
1735319100 from ZEROHEDGE
Court Blocks Chicago Mayor From Firing Chicago Public Schools CEO Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, In a temporary victory for common sense, a Cook County Judge acted in the best interest of the City... Story Background On December 20, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s hand-picked school board voted unanimously to fire Chicago Public Schools CEO Pedro Martinez without cause. Johnson’s entire board resigned unanimously in November when Johnson told them to fire CPS CEO Pedro Martinez. Johnson sought to terminate Martinez because Martinez didn’t support Johnson’s push to take out a high-interest loan to cover CPS’ $300 million shortfall. The Chicago Teachers’ Union (CTU) proposal includes annual raises of 10-12 percent after factoring in cost-of-living adjustments. And the union demands 13,000 new positions despite falling school enrollment. Martinez filed suit on his removal from the CTU negotiations because his contact calls for 180 days extension if he is fired without cause. Martinez Wins Temporary Restraining Order Yahoo!Finance reports Pedro Martinez Wins Temporary Restraining Order Against School Board After Ouster. Mayor Brandon Johnson’s handpicked school board was blocked from modifying Chicago Public Schools CEO Pedro Martinez’s duties by a Cook County Judge on Tuesday, giving the embattled schools chief a victory as he battles with City Hall over the district’s future. Judge Joel Chupack granted Martinez a temporary restraining order against CPS board members after hearing arguments that they obstructed Martinez’s performance of his job duties. The Tuesday hearing — which lasted over an hour and a half — included an assertion by Martinez’s lawyer William J. Quinlan that CPS board members appointed by Johnson met with the teachers union but not their own team while negotiating the teachers contract Monday. “They’re not shy about the interference. They’re brazen. They’re bullish. And they’ll tell you that,” said Martinez’s attorney Quinlan of Quinlan Law Firm LLC before the judge. Quinlan filed a lawsuit in the Cook County Court last Friday to prevent the board from firing the CEO, and then amended the complaint early Tuesday morning. “The CEO, is the ‘sole representative of the Board’ authorized to conduct such negotiations,” according to the complaint. “(The board) didn’t even go to my team. They went directly to CTU, and even went after to strategize,” Martinez told the judge. “They feel empowered … They have the mayor and the board. And so they’re telling my team to agree.” The conflict dates back to September when the mayor asked CPS CEO Martinez to take out a $300 million high-interest loan to cover a new proposed teachers contract and a pension payment previously paid for by the city. Facing deficits of around $500 million in each of the next five years, Martinez said the loan would be fiscally irresponsible. Johnson then gave directives for Martinez to resign, according to an internal memo obtained by the Tribune. The mayor’s board resigned in October around the dispute, and Johnson — a former teacher and union organizer — appointed a new board. Quinlan handwrote an injunction that he handed to the judge before signing off for the holidays. A preliminary injunction hearing is scheduled for Jan. 9 at 3:15 p.m. The corrupt CTU will no doubt take this up with the equally corrupt Illinois Supreme Court that is continually in bed with unions. Would the higher court be willing to do the right thing? I suspect we will find out. Conceivably, the US Supreme Court could eventually get involved. But such maneuvers can only last for 180 days. Eventually, the CTU is likely to get what it wants despite the fact there is no way to pay for it. The CPS Budget The district’s budget is about $10 billion. It’s up nearly 30% increase in five years while serving fewer students. By 2029 or 2030, the deficit is projected to be $4 billion per year on a $10 billion budget. The city is broke. The Corruption and Incompetence of Chicago’s Mayor Has No Bounds For further discussion, please see The Corruption and Incompetence of Chicago’s Mayor Has No Bounds I can’t help but think Johnson will eventually find jail because history suggests corrupt Illinois politicians eventually get there. Meanwhile, the lives of hundreds of thousands of innocent kids are destroyed in a worst in the nation public school system. Meanwhile, please note that In Chicago There’s Under a 50 Percent Chance Police Show Up If You are Shot Good luck in Chicago getting the police to show up if you are shot, stabbed, a victim of domestic violence, or any number of other serious crimes. But hey, Chicago hired 179 new community services administrators. How’s that working for you? If you voted for Johnson, you got what you deserve. Unfortunately, it’s not what the city deserved. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 12:05
First LNG Cargo Departs Plaquemines To Germany In Race To Replace Russian Gas
1735317900 from ZEROHEDGE
First LNG Cargo Departs Plaquemines To Germany In Race To Replace Russian Gas Exports from America's eighth liquefied natural gas facility began this week, highlighted by an LNG carrier departing for Europe. This reinforces the US' position as the world's leading LNG exporter and provides tailwinds for President-elect Donald Trump as he urges Europe to increase US energy product purchases in his upcoming second term. Venture Global, one of the largest US LNG developers, shipped its inaugural cargo of LNG from its Plaquemines export facility in Louisiana via a company-owned carrier named "Venture Bayou." 🇺🇸 Snapshots of Venture Bayou traveling down the Mississippi River, carrying the first export cargo from Plaquemines LNG The ship is expexted to arrive in Germany on Jan 8th. 🇩🇪 (📷: Richie Blink)#LNG #ONGT #NatGas #Shale #OOTT #NOLA #Louisiana #Germany #Europe pic.twitter.com/4AszVXKtnV — Sergio Chapa (@SergioChapa) December 26, 2024 According to Bloomberg ship tracking data, the newly built carrier is en route to deliver the first LNG cargo from Plaquemines to the German utility company EnBW. The shipment is expected to arrive in early January. More details on the vessel via Bloomberg... Venture Global wrote in a statement cited by Bloomberg that the Plaquemines will "produce and export LNG while construction and commissioning continue for the remainder of the project's 36 trains and associated facilities." Plaquemines has several long-term customers, including European utility Electricite de France SA, Polish energy firm Orlen SA, China's Sinopec and Cnooc Ltd., and Shell plc. When the Plaquemines LNG facility becomes fully operational, expected in late 2025 or early 2026 according to Venture Global's project timeline, it will rank among the world's largest LNG export plants, further securing the US' position as the world's top LNG exporter. This development is pivotal, as US LNG has been offered to Brussels as a replacement for Russian piped NatGas. Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel wrote in a statement: "In just five years, Venture Global has built, produced and launched exports from two large-scale LNG projects which has never been done before in the history of the industry." The potential LNG export boom will likely please President-elect Trump, who recently threatened Europe with tariffs unless it increased its purchase of US energy products next year. Also, Venture Global has filed for an initial public offering, with JPMorgan analysts estimating the enterprise value is around $100 billion. In response to Trump's comments about the US-EU LNG trade, Goldman analysts said US LNG could "theoretically" replace piped Russian NatGas to the EU. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 11:45
ObamaCare & The Hyper-Inflation Of Healthcare Costs
1735316700 from ZEROHEDGE
ObamaCare & The Hyper-Inflation Of Healthcare Costs Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, When the Obama Administration first suggested the Affordable Care Act following the Financial Crisis, we argued that the outcome would be substantially higher, not lower, healthcare costs. It is interesting today that economists and the media complain about surging healthcare costs with each inflation report but fail to identify the root cause of that escalation. The chart below tells you almost everything you need to know, but in this blog, we will revisit why the Affordable Care Act failed to make healthcare affordable and some solutions to fix the problem. When it was conceived, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was hoped to improve healthcare access. At the time, roughly 20 million Americans were uninsured. The bill hoped to lower the rising cost of healthcare in the economy by providing a Government mandate. However, as is always the case when “Big Government” steps in, the outcomes are generally worse, not better. Such should not be surprising. At a press conference on August 12th, 1986, US President Ronald Reagan said, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’” A decade after the launch of the Affordable Care Act, we can not look back at the results. In 2023, roughly 25 million Americans still lack healthcare coverage. The government continues expanding programs, like Medicaid, to insure more individuals at a hefty cost to taxpayers. While the uninsured population has fallen by 3 million since 2014, the question is whether the costs justify the results. Unsurprisingly, as we discussed initially, the Affordable Care Act led to a hefty increase in healthcare costs. Although its goals were noble, several key provisions - including pre-existing conditions, reduced consumer choice, and government subsidies - strained the system financially. These problems, compounded with other structural challenges, are further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving insurers, taxpayers, and patients grappling with rising premiums and expenses. We will examine these issues. The Many Problems Of The Affordable Care Act Pre-Existing Conditions and Insurance Pools: Spreading the Risk Unevenly One of the ACA’s most controversial provisions required insurance companies to cover individuals with pre-existing conditions without charging higher premiums. This ensured vulnerable individuals could access necessary care and altered the insurance risk pool. Before the ACA, insurers could price premiums based on the health profile of the insured population. Using data from the healthy pool, costs could be effectively calculated, keeping prices down. However, with the inclusion of high-risk individuals who immediately started drawing from the pool, insurers faced higher costs, which had to be passed on to everyone through increased premiums. From 2013 to 2017, individual premiums more than doubled in some areas, driven by the need to balance the new risk. Younger, healthier individuals who previously benefited from lower premiums saw the steepest increases, making it less attractive for them to maintain coverage. Reduced Consumer Choice: Fewer Plans, Less Competition The ACA aimed to ensure standardized health plans, but this inadvertently led to reduced consumer choice. Insurance providers were required to offer a certain set of essential benefits. While the intention was good, the demands forced many insurers to exit markets where compliance became too costly. In some states, consumers were left with only one or two insurance carriers on the exchanges. The resulting lack of competition gave insurers more leverage to raise prices without fear of losing market share. Premiums continued to climb as consumers had few options and no bargaining power, forcing many to accept higher deductibles for basic coverage. The Cost of Subsidies and the Burden on Taxpayers The ACA introduced subsidies that reduced the price of premiums for those who qualified, making coverage affordable for lower-income individuals. These subsidies, however, came with a steep price tag for taxpayers. The federal government currently subsidizes ACA plans with over $50 billion annually. Additionally, expanded subsidies after the pandemic increased the federal budget burden, locking higher costs even as inflation strained public resources. While subsidies provide short-term relief for individuals, they distort the healthcare market. Providers are less pressured to lower premiums when the patients are shielded from the underlying costs. This dynamic creates a feedback loop that drives prices higher over time, especially as insurers set premiums in anticipation of ongoing subsidy support. Failed State Exchanges and Their Impact The early rollout of the ACA included state-run insurance exchanges intended to offer consumers access to competitive plans. However, several states—such as Oregon and Hawaii—saw their exchanges collapse due to technical issues, poor enrollment, and mismanagement. When these exchanges failed, the federal government absorbed the costs, passing the financial burden on to taxpayers. Billions were wasted on these failed systems, while insurers withdrew from the exchanges due to instability, further reducing competition. These failed exchanges added to federal costs and undermined the ACA’s objective of creating sustainable marketplaces. Fewer participating insurers meant even higher consumer premiums, as the limited competition eroded the benefits of market-based pricing. How the COVID-19 Pandemic Amplified ACA-Related Problems The COVID-19 pandemic placed unprecedented pressure on the healthcare system, compounding the ACA’s existing challenges. Hospitals and providers experienced soaring operational costs due to increased demand, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions. Insurers responded by raising premiums to account for higher claims and uncertainty. These price hikes hit already stretched consumers, with many households facing insurance costs that outpaced wage growth. The government’s response to the pandemic—extending ACA subsidies and relaxing enrollment deadlines—further strained the system. While these measures helped many individuals access coverage during the crisis, they also deepened the financial burden on taxpayers. A Cost We Can’t Afford The design of the Affordable Care Act was deeply flawed at the outset, and as we noted in 2013, such would lead to an obvious outcome. To wit: “It is when the full impact of the Affordable Care Act lands on those working class individuals that sentiment will turn deeply negative towards the government as higher costs, and taxes, not only impact their individual standards of living but continues to erode the economic growth in the U.S.” Unsurprisingly, the very negative sentiment and division in the country today over the quality and costs of healthcare have come home to roost. Of course, this additional “welfare program” that is part of the mandatory spending side of the budget equation has also come to fruition. “The current pace of increase in the participation of social welfare programs, from food stamps and disability claims to social security and Medicare, is creating an ever-increasing consumption of current revenues. Implementing another social welfare program will only create an additional drag on the revenue/expense equation.” – 2013 According to the Center On Budget & Policy Priorities, in 2023, roughly 90% of every tax dollar went to non-productive spending. “In fiscal year 2023, the federal government spent $6.1 trillion, amounting to 22.7 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). About nine-tenths of the total went toward federal programs; the remainder went toward interest payments on the federal debt. Of that $6.1 trillion, only $4.4 trillion was financed by federal revenues. The remaining amount was financed by borrowing.” Notice that 24% of spending goes to Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and Marketplace Subsidies. That will only get worse over time. However, here is the issue. In 2023, 90% of all expenditures went to social welfare, non-productive spending, and interest on the debt. Those payments required $6.1 trillion, roughly 138% more than the tax dollars collected. Those concerned about debt and deficit should question the continued support for the Affordable Care Act. There are options. Options For Lowering Healthcare Costs Given the ongoing surge in healthcare costs, policymakers must reassess whether the ACA can achieve sustainable, affordable care in its current form. One option is to unwind or significantly revise key ACA provisions. For example, creating separate risk pools for individuals with pre-existing conditions could allow insurers to offer lower premiums to healthier individuals while ensuring coverage for those needing it most. Another approach would involve deregulating the healthcare market to foster more competition. Allowing insurers to sell plans across state lines could increase consumer options and reduce premiums. Additionally, reforming subsidies by linking them to healthcare outcomes rather than premium levels could help contain costs at the source. Revisiting antitrust enforcement in healthcare markets is also crucial. Mergers between hospital systems and insurers have reduced competition, driving prices higher. Strengthening competition policies would encourage providers to lower costs, benefiting consumers in the long run. The ACA brought essential reforms but failed to control costs, burdening many households and taxpayers with unsustainable healthcare expenses. Revisiting the structure of insurance pools, increasing market competition, and reforming subsidies offer a way to address the root causes of rising costs. While unwinding parts of the ACA may be politically challenging, it could be a necessary step to build a healthcare system that delivers both access and affordability. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 11:25
Luxury Bear Market Crushes Wealth Of French Billionaires
1735315500 from ZEROHEDGE
Luxury Bear Market Crushes Wealth Of French Billionaires The slowdown in the global personal luxury goods market resulted in a year of record wealth losses for France's top billionaires. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Bernard Arnault, Françoise Bettencourt Meyers, and François Pinault had $71 billion erased from their collective wealth this year. The three French billionaires are in the index's top five for largest wealth losses (in dollar amount) on the year. These billionaires also control LVMH, L’Oréal SA and Kering SA. It was a bloodbath for the industry... Gucci-owner Kering tumbled 41% on the year, L'Oréal SA -24%, and LVMH -13.5%. A recent note by Bain & Company, in partnership with Italy luxury goods manufacturers' industry association Altagamma, showed that the personal luxury goods market entered its first slowdown since the Great Recession. Global luxury spending is expected between -1% and 1% in year-over-year growth in 2024, reaching 1.5 trillion euros, or approximately $1.6 trillion, as cash-strapped consumers from China to Europe to the US continue dialing back on discretionary items. Looking ahead, Bain forecasts a slight improvement in luxury spending in 2025 but anticipates a shaky industry through the decade's end. LVMH is the world's largest luxury goods company, and in its latest earnings report, it warned about an "uncertain economic and geopolitical environment" denting global sales. Meanwhile, Elon Musk remains firmly at the top of the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Is rocket man set to become the world's first trillionaire by the end of the decade? Building rockets is a much better business than selling purses made in sweatshops. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 11:05
21 Quotes About Central Banking That Show Why The Fed Must Be Shut Down
1735314300 from ZEROHEDGE
21 Quotes About Central Banking That Show Why The Fed Must Be Shut Down Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com, We have come to accept that we are permanently trapped in an endless cycle of debt and money creation. But the only reason why debt and money grow at an exponential rate is because that is what our system was designed to do. The Federal Reserve and other central banks around the globe were created with a purpose. The goal was to get humanity into as much debt as possible, and those holding that debt just keep getting wealthier and wealthier. Unfortunately, we have been trained to not even question this deeply insidious arrangement. Over the past several decades, our money supply has been growing at a pace that we have never seen before. And once the pandemic hit, the growth of the money supply went into overdrive. This is why the cost of living is so oppressive today. There is simply way too much money floating around. Over the past several decades, our national debt has also been growing at an exponential rate. The system is designed to produce debt faster than it produces money. That is why it will never be possible for us to pay off the national debt. Sadly, most Americans don’t even understand what the Federal Reserve is. One thing that the Federal Reserve is NOT is a government agency. In fact, it is about as “federal” as Federal Express. It is a private central bank designed to make money for the people who created it. In fact, the Federal Reserve was the culmination of an effort by the international banking elite to force a permanent private central bank on the American people that began all the way back during the days of our Founding Fathers. But don’t just take my word for it. The following are 21 quotes about central banking from past presidents, congressmen and other notable historical figures… #1 John Adams, the second president of the United States: “All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise, not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, so much as from the downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.” #2 James Madison: “History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and it’s issuance.” #3 Thomas Jefferson: “I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a monied aristocracy that has set the government at defiance. The issuing power (of money) should be taken away from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs.” #4 Abraham Lincoln: “The money powers prey upon the nation in times of peace and conspire against it in times of adversity. It is more despotic than a monarchy, more insolent than autocracy, and more selfish than bureaucracy. It denounces as public enemies all who question its methods or throw light upon its crimes. I have two great enemies, the Southern Army in front of me and the bankers in the rear. Of the two, the one at my rear is my greatest foe.” #5 James A. Garfield: “Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce.” #6 Woodrow Wilson: “A great industrial nation is controlled by it’s system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the world–no longer a government of free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of small groups of dominant men.” #7 Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild: “Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes it’s laws” #8 Horace Greeley: “While boasting of our noble deeds were careful to conceal the ugly fact that by an iniquitous money system we have nationalized a system of oppression which, though more refined, is not less cruel than the old system of chattel slavery.” #9 Sir Josiah Stamp, the former President of the Bank of England: “Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money and control credit, and with a flick of a pen they will create enough to buy it back.” #10 Rothschild Brothers of London, 1863: “The few who understand the system, will either be so interested from it’s profits or so dependent on it’s favors, that there will be no opposition from that class.” #11 Charles A. Lindbergh Sr. in 1913: “This [Federal Reserve Act] establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President [Wilson} signs this bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized….the worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill.” #12 Charles A. Lindbergh Sr. in 1923: “The financial system has been turned over to the Federal Reserve Board. That Board administers the finance system by authority of a purely profiteering group. The system is Private, conducted for the sole purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people’s money” #13 Congressman Louis T. McFadden: “The Federal Reserve banks are one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever seen. There is not a man within the sound of my voice who does not know that this nation is run by the International bankers.” #14 Congressman Louis T. McFadden in 1932 just before FDR began his first term: “We have, in this country, one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board. This evil institution has impoverished the people of the United States and has practically bankrupted our government. It has done this through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it.” #15 Franklin Delano Roosevelt: “The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the large centers has owned the government of the U.S. since the days of Andrew Jackson.” #16 Eustace Mullins: “As soon as Mr. Roosevelt took office, the Federal Reserve began to buy government securities at the rate of ten million dollars a week for 10 weeks, and created one hundred million dollars in new [checkbook] currency, which alleviated the critical famine of money and credit, and the factories started hiring people again.” #17 Congressman Wright Patman, Congressional Record, Sept 30, 1941: “The Federal Reserve bank buys government bonds without one penny…” #18 Senator Barry Goldwater: “Most Americans have no real understanding of the operation of the international money lenders. The accounts of the Federal Reserve System have never been audited. It operates outside the control of Congress and manipulates the credit of the United States.” #19 Henry Ford: "It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” #20 Lewis vs. United States, 680 F. 2d 1239 9th Circuit 1982: “The regional Federal Reserve banks are not government agencies. …but are independent, privately owned and locally controlled corporations.” #21 Boston Federal Reserve Bank: “When you or I write a check there must be sufficient funds in our account to cover the check, but when the Federal Reserve writes a check there is no bank deposit on which that check is drawn. When the Federal Reserve writes a check, it is creating money.” Why isn’t this one of the biggest political issues in the country today? The Federal Reserve is at the center of a controversy over central banking that has been around since the very beginning of the United States. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve system is so incredibly complex and the American people have been so “dumbed down” that the vast majority of the population literally has no idea how our system really works. If we do nothing, things will continue to get even worse for ordinary Americans. In 2001, 17 million people were on food stamps. Today, more than 42 million people are on food stamps… Food stamp enrollment has increased significantly in recent decades. In fiscal year 2023, 42.1 million Americans received food stamps. This is 2.4 times the 17.3 million who were enrolled in FY 2001. As the number of people receiving food stamp benefits has increased, the percentage of the U.S. population enrolled has also increased. In fiscal year 2023, 12.6 percent of the total U.S. population received food stamp benefits. This is more than double the 6.1 percent in FY 2001. One out of every four children in America now gets assistance from food stamps each month. In fact, it is projected that half of all U.S. kids will be on food stamps at some point in their lives. Our entire system is designed to funnel wealth to those at the very top of the pyramid at the expense of everyone else. I have been writing about the evils of the Federal Reserve system for more than a decade, but sometimes it feels like I am banging my head into a wall. What will it take for the American people to finally wake up? * * * Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 10:45
Cuban Communists Fumble Economy So Badly That They Now Import Sugar... At $25 Per Pound
1735311900 from ZEROHEDGE
Cuban Communists Fumble Economy So Badly That They Now Import Sugar... At $25 Per Pound Authored by Olivia Murray via AmericanThinker.com, For the better part of a century, Cuba has been under the control of communists and their ideologies, and the previously inconceivable has finally happened - they’ve run out of sugar. Like John Hinderaker at Powerline quipped, “This is like Libya running out of sand.” Or…like Alabama running out of cotton. Like Costa Rica running out of pineapples. Like Russia running out of vodka. Like Saudi Arabia running out of oil. Like China running out of rice. Like the Midwest running out of corn. Like Afghanistan running out of opium. How is this even possible? Do you really even have to do anything to get a tropical crop to grow on an island nation with a literal year-round growing season? According to a new report from CiberCuba, the communists are now importing sugar at about $25 a pound, and have stopped exporting entirely, after a number of “failures” over the years. NEWS FLASH: Communism never works, and it is always a failure. If anyone needs a refresher as to what happens to a plot of land after communists take over and try to grow something, look no further than the CHAZ community garden in Seattle from the summer of 2020: (They immediately went online to solicit food donations, like vegan hotdogs, becuase they were “starving” a mere 6 hours into the garden-growing experience.) Anyway, here is the story from the CiberCuba article: The Cuban government acknowledged that it is ‘shameful’ for the island, traditionally one of the leading sugar producers in Latin America, to be forced to import this product. Despite efforts to revive the sugar industry, the sector continues to face serious challenges, including failures in the last harvest. During the session of the National Assembly of People's Power, Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz recalled when Raúl Castro remarked that ‘it would be an embarrassment to have to import sugar.’ He then stated, ‘and well, we are experiencing that embarrassment because we are importing sugar.’ He emphasized that the crisis in the sector is such that the country has also stopped exporting sugar, which was a key component of the economy. Everything about communism is shameful and an embarrassment—how do you take a flourishing crop and turn it into a liability? How do you look at a hundred-million-dead-in-one-hundred-years record, a death rate rivaled only by global abortion, and consider it a success? Here’s what Russian-born Michael Malice recently said, via John Stossel: ‘One thing that drives me crazy,’ says Malice, ‘is when people say, ‘Communism works in theory.’ … Everything works in theory. Reality is how you determine how something works or not!’ I built a flying car, but it only flies...in theory. I made an invisibility cloak, but it only hides a person...in theory. I invented anti-gravity boots, but they only float...in theory. I created a weight loss pill that makes the pounds just fly off a person, but it only works...in theory. Stupid, right? Yes, and that’s exactly how asinine the “in theory” claim sounds. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 10:05
South Korean Parliament Impeaches Acting President Han Duck-Soo Amid Escalating Political Crisis
1735310700 from ZEROHEDGE
South Korean Parliament Impeaches Acting President Han Duck-Soo Amid Escalating Political Crisis South Korea plunged deeper into political chaos on Friday as parliament voted to impeach Prime Minister and Acting President Han Duck-soo, just two weeks after impeaching President Yoon Suk Yeol over his short-lived emergency martial law stunt. South Korea's parliament voted with 192 lawmakers to impeach Han, exceeding the critical 151-vote majority in the 300-member legislature. This now means Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok will serve as acting president. "I announce that Prime Minister Han Duck-soo's impeachment motion has passed. Out of the 192 lawmakers who voted, 192 voted to impeach," said National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-Shik. South Korea's acting president Han Duck-soo has also been impeached. Read more: https://t.co/QByIlUw7mA pic.twitter.com/WYfPB1CEN8 — South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) December 27, 2024 Han's sudden ouster comes several weeks after Yoon's December 3 martial law decree, which lasted only six hours—one of the shortest martial law periods in the country's history. Nevertheless, it sparked mass protests and now worsening political turmoil. Reuters noted the imposition of martial law earlier this month "sent shockwaves through Asia's fourth-largest economy, and drew concerns from allies in the United States and Europe who had seen Yoon as a key partner in efforts to counter China, Russia and North Korea." Finance Minister Choi released this statement: "The government must do its best to ensure that the people do not become anxious, or the security of the country and people's daily lives are not shaken." Goldman previously told clients that the Constitutional Court has six months to uphold or reject the impeachment vote. The court has stated that Yoon's case will be a "top priority," along with other impeachment cases. On Friday, Goldman's David Kim and Chris Cha provided clients with a market wrap of how the latest political turmoil impacted domestic markets: KOSPI traded lower as the index saw joint net foreign & local insto selling. The index saw deeper losses as the session progressed and at one point dropped below 2,400 following the sharp mid-day KRW depreciation to as low as W1,485 due to more political instability after the Democratic party reinforced their decision to impeach the interim president / PM Han Duck Soo after he declined to appoint 3 judges to the Constitutional Court. Outflows were scattered across sectors today on year end ex-div for some names as well, but foreigners ended the day as main net buyers of KOSPI Tech & Service (Internet). Turnover was -29% vs the recent 20 day average. The KOSPI is attempting to hold support. A failure at this level would likely result from escalating political turmoil combined with mounting economic headwinds. Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, told Reuters that South Korea could plunge into an economic crisis comparable to the one in the late 1990s on top of its ongoing political turmoil. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 09:45
Trump To End 'Work From Home' For Federal Employees As Corporate America Takes Action
1735308300 from ZEROHEDGE
Trump To End 'Work From Home' For Federal Employees As Corporate America Takes Action President-elect Donald Trump warned federal employees last week that they must return to the office, or "they're going to be dismissed" - an announcement which comes on the heels of several major corporations taking swift action to end work-from-home, a pandemic-era policy that saw a considerable portion of the US workforce adapt to remote work. During the pandemic, approximately 2.3 million federal employees shifted away from traditional office spaces. This shift was not just a temporary adjustment, but a transformational move that many hoped would persist post-pandemic due to its perceived benefits in work-life balance and reduced operational costs. The Biden administration, acknowledging these benefits, continued to support telework, facilitating the reduction of government-owned real estate and integrating flexible work arrangements into the fabric of federal employment. However, with Trump’s election, a quick pivot is on the horizon. Unsurprisingly, Trump’s call for a return to office has been met with resistance from federal employees and unions. Approximately 56 percent of the civil service is covered under collective bargaining agreements that include telework provisions, while a full 10% of federal jobs are now designated as fully "remote," according to the Washington Post. Rep. James Comer (R-KY), chairman of the House Oversight Committee, agrees with Trump. "The pandemic is long over, and it is past time for the federal workforce to return to in-person work," Comer said in a statement - adding that the Biden administration never provided evidence that work-from-home didn't harm service. "On the contrary, the evidence suggests that Americans have suffered under these lenient telework policies," Comer added. Other GOP lawmakers have introduced bills mandating that chronically “absent” employees be seen in their office chairs, and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who leads a caucus aligned with Musk and Ramaswamy’s commission, said this month that she tracked down “bureaucrats relaxing in bubble baths, playing golf, getting arrested, and doing just about everything besides their jobs.” -WaPo Meanwhile, as the Epoch Times notes, big business has already been taking action to get people back into the office. Starting Jan. 2, 2025, Amazon is requiring all of its 350,000 employees to return to the office five days a week to foster collaboration and strengthen company culture, according to an announcement made by Amazon CEO Andy Jassy on Sept. 16. While companies including Boeing, Disney, Apple, Starbucks, UPS, Dell and banks such as Chase, Barclays, and CitiGroup have called employees back to work on at least a hybrid schedule, Amazon’s move has heightened the belief that remote work options are drying up. In recent months, various surveys have revealed that business leaders are becoming more resolute in their push to reinstate pre-pandemic work practices. A September KPMG report highlighted that 83 percent of U.S. CEOs expect a full return to the office within the next three years, up from 64 percent in 2023. Likewise, an August survey by Resume Builder showed that 90 percent of businesses will have adopted return-to-office policies by next year, with 30 percent requiring full-time office attendance. The latest Flex Index, which monitors the RTO activity of 100 million employees across more than 13,000 companies, showed that 43 percent of U.S. firms on an industry-adjusted basis have employed a structured hybrid model in the fourth quarter, up from 38 percent in the third quarter and 20 percent in the first quarter of 2023. Additionally, 32 percent of firms had fully returned to in-office work. Reasons CEOs Push Return-to-Office Policies The main reasons for return-to-office mandates include: fostering collaboration and teamwork, improving communication, strengthening company culture, boosting productivity, and simplifying employee management, according to a recent survey by Resume.org. Kevelyn Guzman, the regional vice president at Coldwell Banker Warburg, is one of many business leaders that have embraced the return-to-office trend. “We see the office as more than a workspace—it’s a hub for connection, collaboration, and growth,” Guzman told The Epoch Times. “In-person collaboration has been a game changer for our agents, sparking spontaneous brainstorming sessions, allowing them to collaborate on listings, referrals, ideas, real-time problem-solving, and the kind of energy that can only come from face-to-face interaction.” Tim Stassi, founder of Dwell One Realty echoed this sentiment. “Returning to the office feels a bit like reuniting with an old friend you forgot how much you missed—except this friend brings fresh ideas, spontaneous brainstorming sessions, and the undeniable aroma of freshly brewed coffee that no Zoom background can replicate,” he told The Epoch Times. Cyndi Gave, leader of The Metiss Group, a consulting firm specializing in talent selection and development, offered another perspective on why companies are implementing return-to-office policies. She said that while remote and hybrid work models have enabled flexibility and broadened talent pools, they have also posed challenges to collaboration, resulted in reduced engagement, and introduced phenomena such as “job stacking,” which refers to employees taking on multiple jobs simultaneously. “They were just doing things on a list and then going out to fish or walk the dog. They became task focused,” Gave told The Epoch Times. “So, then they realized they could get their tasks done in less than 40 hours, so they took on another full-time job and pulled in two salaries. I’ve heard of people actually taking on three. If you’re working multiple full-time jobs, you can’t tell me you’re putting in full-time work.” Gave said that job stacking has started to wane now that employees are going back to the office. Recent data from SurveyMonkey seems to bolster this opinion. According to its report, 46 percent of hybrid or remote workers admit to multitasking during a work call, with activities ranging from using bathroom to browsing social media or online shopping. Another 46 percent confessed to doing house chores during work, and 4 percent revealed they were working a second job simultaneously. ‘The Great Resistance’ On the other hand, it is no secret that many workers have resisted the call to return to their desks at a centralized location. Two of the most common concerns about return to work are cost and control. Last month, Owl Labs research found that workers spend more than $60 per day to work from the office, be it their commute or buying lunch. “If you’re being asked to go into the office five days a week, an additional $300 a week in expenses is really, really high,” said Owl Labs CEO Frank Weishaupt in a statement. This past spring, MyPerfectResume’s 2024 Return to Office Survey revealed that 77 percent of workers believe companies are mandating return to office because they seek more control over their staff members. Some other concerns employees have with being asked to return to the office on a hybrid or full-time basis revolve around the disruption of family dynamics with commuting time and the need to begin paying for childcare again. Whatever the causes of pushback to returning to the office may be, Stanford’s Institute for Economic Policy Research referred to this phenomenon in July 2022 as “The Great Resistance.” As more companies move toward bringing remote workers back to the office, the prevailing question for some employees is, “Do they have the legal right to do this, and can they fire me if I don’t?” Scott Herndon, an employment attorney in Berkeley, California, said the answer is “yes and yes.” The vast majority of America’s non-union workforce is employed under an “at will” contract, meaning they can leave at any time or be let go for whatever reason their employer deems necessary, Herndon said. “I think people are misled at how robust their rights are in the workplace. That doesn’t mean there aren’t key protections that might interfere with this return-to-work policy but not in general,” he told The Epoch Times. “The employees have very little leverage. It’s basically supply and demand and there’s no intrinsic rights for those working remotely at all. They’re being called back because it’s a matter of businesses attempting to be more efficient.” However, John Hubbard, an employment attorney with Hubbard Snitchler & Parzianello in Detroit, said that one of the most significant downsides for companies giving return to office ultimatums to employees is the potential to lose talented people. “People moved due to prior policies and then are told the company changed policy. But many in that circumstance are not coming back and are leaving the company. Because everybody is on an at-will contract basis, they can make their own decisions,” he told The Epoch Times. “Employers may be making the decision to have you back in the office, but it’s up to the employee to decide whether that is acceptable or not.” A survey of 2,585 Amazon professionals conducted by the anonymous forum provider Blind, just one day after the company’s announcement, shows that 73 percent were considering quitting because of the five-day mandate. However, the Resume.org survey also showed that almost half (49 percent) of employers were not concerned about the risk of their employees resigning due to their return to office policies, given the current state of the job market. Another survey, conducted across six major cities—Paris, London, New York, Singapore, Sydney, Toronto—revealed that more than 60 percent of employees in each city will comply with their companies’ return-to-office policies. In New York, for instance, 72 percent said they would comply, with 44 percent doing so willingly while 28 percent reluctantly. ‘Not a One-Sided Initiative’ Nevertheless, businesses are trying all ways to attract workers to the office. “Companies must fundamentally reimagine and reconfigure workspaces to provide seamless and immersive collaboration experiences,” said Snorre Kjesbu, senior vice president and general manager of collaboration devices at Cisco, in the company’s recent Global Hybrid Work Study. This, said Kjesbu, consists of designing and installing customized collaborative workspaces, concentrating on room layouts, screen visibility, and audio coverage. Understanding initial hesitation among personnel, Guzman’s office has tried to make the atmosphere more engaging. Over the past year, the business has hosted various art, charity, and wellness events. Simply Noted, an Arizona-based handwritten notes platform, has utilized a hybrid model to facilitate the benefits of working in the office and remotely. While the company offers remote work options, management has stressed the importance of an in-office presence to bolster professional growth. “Team members can build stronger relationships, learn through osmosis, and take advantage of mentorship opportunities that are harder to replicate remotely,” Rick Elmore, the founder of Simply Noted, told The Epoch Times. “We’ve also communicated how collaboration in person can accelerate decision-making and innovation—benefits that positively impact everyone’s workload and outcomes.” At the same time, it is not a one-sided initiative as return to office also requires improving in-office culture, says Elmore. “We’ve been intentional about making the office a place employees enjoy coming to,” he said, alluding to different perks, like catered lunches, wellness programs, team-building activities, and flexible schedules. “Ultimately, our goal is to create a workplace that everyone feels proud to be part of—whether they’re contributing from home or in the office,” Elmore stated. Kevin Connor, founder and CEO of Modern SBC, told The Epoch Times that the company focused on making the office “worth coming back to.” “We targeted our efforts on growing a workplace in which humans desired to be.” Kraig Kleeman, founder and CEO of The New Workforce, said he encountered resistance. He told The Epoch Times the company handled it by offering flexibility in office hours and working on solutions “to the real challenges people face, like providing travel allowances and support for parents who are caring for children.” These efforts are consistent with surveys. A June BambooHR poll of human resources professionals and managers found that the objectives behind working from the office are to enhance employee development, boost customer interactions, and improve company culture. Prakash Mana, the CEO of California-based cybersecurity firm Cloudbrink, has a message to other executives: “Work-from-anywhere isn’t going anywhere.” Despite return-to-office mandates observed over the last year, Mana thinks remote work will persist in 2025 and beyond for two primary reasons. “First, Gen Z, the first true digital-first generation, is fast becoming the primary new talent pool,” he told The Epoch Times. “Second, secure remote connectivity now offers the speed, performance, and security to match the in-office environment.” RedBalloon’s December Freedom Economy Index, a monthly survey of 100,000 small businesses shared ahead of publication with The Epoch Times, found that a fifth of employers expect remote work to be more prevalent in the year ahead. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 09:05
Alexander Downer Exposes FBI's Deceit In Opening Russia Investigation
1735307100 from ZEROHEDGE
Alexander Downer Exposes FBI's Deceit In Opening Russia Investigation Authored by Jeff Carlson & Hans Mahncke via Truth Over News, A few days ago, our friend Stephen McIntyre, one of the original Russiagate investigators, sent a tweet to revisit a question that many of us have pondered for years but which has never been fully resolved. As a result, we finally now have the answer. That is because, in response to McIntyre’s tweet, the key figure has come forward to confirm what many of us have suspected all along. McIntyre's tweet highlighted that, according to the FBI, it was Australian diplomat Alexander Downer who initiated the inception of the Crossfire Hurricane investigation. However, the narratives surrounding this event differ significantly between Downer's account in Special Counsel John Durham’s report and the FBI's version. Downer has now stepped forward to affirm Durham's version with a three-word tweet: “Durham is right”. This development carries substantial implications for the entire Russiagate saga, particularly regarding its fraudulent origins. Downer’s confirmation represents a significant breakthrough in unraveling the final puzzle pieces of Russiagate, not necessarily because the information is new or surprising, but rather because it confirms that the FBI was aware from the outset that its justification for initiating the Trump-Russia investigation was phony. The two competing versions of the Crossfire Hurricane origin story can be summarized as follows: According to the FBI, Trump campaign advisor George Papadopoulos met with Australia’s ambassador in London, Alexander Downer, and Downer’s assistant, Erika Thompson. During this meeting, Papadopoulos is supposed to have “suggested the Trump team had received some kind of suggestion” that Russia might assist the Trump campaign by anonymously releasing damaging information about Hillary Clinton prior to the 2016 election. Robert Mueller went one step further, claiming that what Papadopoulos had talked about was “that the Russian government had “dirt” on Hillary Clinton in the form of thousands of emails.” Downer’s account, as detailed in the Durham report, states, “Papadopoulos made no mention of Clinton emails, dirt or any specific approach by the Russian government to the Trump campaign team with an offer or suggestion of providing assistance. Rather, Downer's recollection was that Papadopoulos simply stated "the Russians have information" and that was all.” Notably, the day before Papadopoulos met with Downer and Thompson, Andrew Napolitano shared a nearly identical account on Fox News, raising the distinct possibility that Papadopoulos was simply reiterating what he had heard on TV, as opposed to any secret plot. In fact, we would argue that this is almost certainly what occurred: Papadopoulos enthusiastically repeated a story he had encountered on Fox News. So, how did everything get blown out of proportion? This is where Downer’s confirmation of Durham’s account comes into play and why it is so important. According to the Durham report, the FBI utilized a cherry-picked portion of a report written by Thompson regarding their meeting with Papadopoulos to justify the initiation of the Crossfire Hurricane investigation into alleged collusion between Trump and Russia. Thompson's report, which was a standard post-meeting document, was submitted to the Australian government in Canberra shortly after Thompson and Downer met with Papadopoulos on May 10, 2016. The snippet relied on by the FBI stated: “[Papadopoulos] commented that the Clintons had "a lot of baggage" and suggested the Trump team had plenty of material to use in its campaign. He also suggested the Trump team had received some kind of suggestion from Russia that it could assist this process with the anonymous release of information during the campaign that would be damaging to Mrs[.] Clinton (and President Obama). It was unclear whether he or the Russians were referring to material acquired publicly of [sic] through other means. It was also unclear how Mr[.] Trump's team reacted to the offer. We note the Trump team's reaction could, in the end, have little bearing of [sic] what Russia decides to do, with or without Mr[.] Trump's cooperation.” In late July 2016, Downer gave the meeting report, which included the cherry-picked snippet, to the U.S. Embassy in London after hearing Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook on CNN assert that Russia had hacked the DNC to assist Trump. As we later found out, the so-called experts Mook supposedly relied on in making his claim were Clinton campaign operatives, such as Christopher Steele. Although Downer could not have known this, his actions in going to the U.S. Embassy with two-and-a-half-month-old meeting notes were highly unusual. Perhaps he was caught in the moment of widespread hysteria. Or perhaps he was cajoled into doing what he did. Be that as it may, to the extent that he could be criticized for acting prematurely or misunderstanding the situation, he promptly clarified the matter. The reason for this is that after the FBI initiated its Crossfire Hurricane investigation on July 31, 2016, allegedly based on the snippet from Thompson, FBI chief investigator Peter Strzok and his associate Joe Pientka traveled to London to interview Downer and Thompson regarding their encounter with Papadopoulos. Setting aside the fact that an honest investigator would have waited to speak with the witnesses before launching a comprehensive investigation into a presidential campaign, it is what Downer conveyed to Strzok—now confirmed—that demonstrates the entire investigation was founded on a deliberate misunderstanding, in other words, a lie. Downer told Strzok that the substance of the snippet that Thompson had drafted was “purposely vague” because “Papadopoulos left a number of things unexplained.” Downer also clarified that Papadopoulos “did not say he had direct contact with the Russians.” Downer further said that “there were reasons to be unsure about what to make of the information from Papadopoulos,” and that he “did not get the sense Papadopoulos was the middle-man to coordinate with the Russians.” Notably, this is not what Downer later told Durham with the benefit of hindsight, it is what Downer told Strzok at the time. Downer later informed Durham that he would have characterized the statements made by Papadopoulos differently than Thompson did in the snippet relied on by the FBI. It is unclear to what extent Downer communicated this to Strzok in August 2016, but based on the available information, it should have been evident to Strzok that the snippet should not under any circumstances have been taken at face value. While the report of Strzok’s meeting with Downer remains under lock and key, based on Durham's statements, we know that, contrary to Thompson’s vague notes, Downer made it clear to Strzok that Trump's team had not received any offers from Russia, at least not that anyone was aware of, and Papadopoulos did not claim or suggest that they had received any offers. What is more, even if Strzok, for whatever reason, had taken Thompson’s loosely worded meeting report at face value, it clearly indicated that any information the Russians possessed might have been publicly available. In other words, based on the actual wording in the snippet that the FBI used to initiate Crossfire Hurricane, whatever Papadopoulos may have meant could have been public knowledge—such as Napolitano’s comments on Fox News. This puts to rest the FBI’s fraudulent narrative that the Papadopoulos-Downer meeting had something to do with Clinton’s emails, a claim that both men have always strenuously denied. But it gets worse. While in London, Strzok confessed to Pientka and the FBI’s London representative that “there's nothing to this, but we have to run it to ground.” Then, shortly after the London trip, Pientka, who is referred to as "Supervisory Special Agent-1" in Durham’s report, had the following text exchange with the FBI’s London representative: FBI's Assistant Legal Attache in London: “Dude, are we telling them [British Intelligence Service-1] everything we know, or is there more to this?” Pientka: “That’s all we have. Not holding anything back.” FBI's Legal Attache in London: “Damn that’s thin.” Pientka: “I know. It sucks.” British Intelligence officials also told the FBI’s Legal Attache in London that they “could not believe the Papadopoulos bar conversation was all there was” and suggested that the FBI should, as a first step, talk to Papadopoulos. But Strzok had different plans. Immediately following his trip to London, during which Downer made it abundantly clear that Papadopoulos had said nothing of significant importance and that the entire matter was likely a misunderstanding, Strzok initiated full investigations into three additional members of the Trump campaign team: Carter Page, Paul Manafort, and Michael Flynn. That Downer has now confirmed Durham’s version of events is highly significant because it proves that Strzok was fully aware that the snippet from Thompson’s report should not have been relied upon. Downer explicitly informed Strzok that the snippet was phrased loosely and that Papadopoulos had said nothing inappropriate. Downer, who witnessed the events firsthand, also disagreed with how the snippet was worded. To summarize, FBI leadership selectively chose a vaguely worded paragraph from a meeting report to initiate an enterprise investigation into the Trump campaign regarding alleged collusion with Russia. A few days later, when Downer, the principal witness to the meeting, informed the FBI that the entire situation was essentially much ado about nothing, his statement was disregarded. We all remember that when Strzok's interview notes with Michael Flynn were finally released, they proved that Flynn had told the truth and that the entire case against him was fabricated. When Strzok's interview notes with Downer are eventually released, we will discover the same: that Downer told the truth and that the initiation of the Crossfire Hurricane investigation was based on a big, fat lie. A Personal Note: The person who prompted Alexander Downer to finally clear things up, Runyonesque, is currently facing significant medical challenges and is raising funds to cover treatment costs. If you'd like to support, please consider donating. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 08:45
US Stock Futures Drop As 10Y Yield Trades Near 2024 High
1735306110 from ZEROHEDGE
US Stock Futures Drop As 10Y Yield Trades Near 2024 High US equity futures declined after Thursday’s muted session on Wall Street, while markets in Europe and Asia advanced in muted holiday trading as the year draws to a close. As of 8:00am, S&P futures were down 0.3%, after ending Thursday flat, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2% in quiet post-holiday session as mixed jobless claims data did little to change bets on the Fed’s policy outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near a seven-month high around 4.60%, and the dollar was steady, on track for its best year since 2015. Oil reversed Thursday's losses and was set to gain. The macro calendar is quiet: we get the advance goods trade balance, as well as wholesale and retail inventories. In premarket trading, Arena Group climbed 18% after the company said it was notified by NYSE American that its plan to regain compliance with continued listing standards had been accepted. SES AI soared 64% and is set to extend gains for a fifth session after shares of the EV battery maker climbed as much as 168% on Thursday. With the economy remaining resilient, investors are concerned President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, which could include tariffs and tax cuts, will stoke price rises, forcing a more hawkish stance from the central bank. "The most important move in this year-end is the rise of the US 10-year bond; this shows how much everybody is waiting for Trump’s inauguration and its impact on inflation,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de L’Echiquier in Paris. “Other than that, most of the trades are technical ones, short-covering and profit taking but there’s no big trend going on as is typical during this time of the year.” Europe's Stoxx index climbed 0.5% as trading resumed after a two-day break, with volumes at about 60% of the 20-day average for the time of day, and were poised for modest weekly gains. Novo Nordisk shares extended their rebound into a second session. Delivery Hero shares drop as much as 9% after Taiwan blocked the sale of its subsidiary there to Uber Technologies. Earlier in the session, the MSCI Asia Pacific index climbed for the fifth straight day, its longest such streak since July. Shares in Tokyo jumped after the yen dropped to a five-month low of 158 per dollar in the previous session, following Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments Wednesday that avoided giving a clear signal on interest rates next month. Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong and mainland Chinese shares fluctuated. Equities rose in Australia, with their South Korean counterparts declining as the country’s political turmoil continued. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index was steady, on pace for its best year since 2015. The yen rebounded slightly Friday, after Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said the government will take appropriate steps against excessive movements in the foreign exchange market. Data released Friday also showed inflation in Tokyo accelerated for a second month, with retail sales also beating estimates. Bank of Japan board members held mixed views when they discussed the timing of an interest-rate hike at last week’s meeting, according to minutes released on Friday. A summary of opinions from the central bank’s December meeting showed mixed views among its board members on the timing of another rate hike partly due to uncertainties over the US economy. USD/JPY traded 0.2% lower at 157.75, having fallen as low as 157.51 in Asian trade; the pound drifted higher against the dollar while the euro held its ground at $1.0421. In rates, treasuries are under pressure as US trading gets under way, trailing steeper declines for European bond markets, many of which are reopening after a two-day holiday. US yields remain inside ranges from Thursday, the 10-year Treasury yield rising 3bps to 4.61%, near the May high of 4.64% hit on Thursday. Traders are betting that the Fed will deliver less than two rate cuts by end-2025. 5- to 30-year yields have risen more than 15bp since Dec. 17, the day before the Fed, while cutting interest rates for the third straight time, signaled a slower pace for future moves. Bloomberg Treasury Index lost 1.7% this month through Thursday, paring its YTD gain to less than 0.5%; index may benefit next week from month-end rebalancing that will extend its duration by an estimated 0.07 year In commodity markets, iron ore sank to the lowest in more than five weeks, falling below $100 a ton, as poor industrial profits in China highlighted the nation’s economic weakness. Oil gained while gold was steady. Bitcoin edged higher after the cryptocurrency’s rally showed signs of fizzling Thursday. The US economic data calendar includes November advance goods trade balance and November preliminary wholesale inventories at 8:30am. Fed speaker slate is blank until Jan. 3. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 6,073.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 505.34 MXAP up 0.4% to 182.70 MXAPJ down 0.2% to 573.66 Nikkei up 1.8% to 40,281.16 Topix up 1.3% to 2,801.68 Hang Seng Index little changed at 20,090.46 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,400.14 Sensex up 0.3% to 78,727.26 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 8,261.80 Kospi down 1.0% to 2,404.77 German 10Y yield up 6 bps at 2.39% Euro little changed at $1.0412 Brent Futures up 0.2% to $73.42/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $2,625.09 US Dollar Index little changed at 108.17 Top Overnight News The Bank of Japan signaled that a rate hike next month still remains on the table even as cautious views among the majority swayed the stand-pat decision at a policy meeting last week. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved parliament and set the country’s snap election for Feb. 23, formally endorsing a timetable proposed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz after he pulled the plug on his ruling coalition last month. A Bitcoin rally is fizzling in the final days of a record-breaking year for the digital asset, as investors assess the remaining impetus from President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of the cryptocurrency sector. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 08:28
The UFO Swarm Yields To A Logical Explanation
1735305000 from ZEROHEDGE
The UFO Swarm Yields To A Logical Explanation Authored by Molly Slag via American Thinker, The most remarkable feature of the UFO swarm that began November 18 over New Jersey and then expanded in short order to infest New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Oregon, Minnesota, California, Texas (and where else?), with an average of 92 sightings per night, and that continues wholly unabated through the present day, is its persistence. The swarm persists unabated, the public demand that the government explain persists unabated, and the government stonewall of the public demand persists unabated. This persistence reveals how ineptly the government reads the public mood. The great lesson of COVID—well known to all the unwashed who lived through it—is that the government and all its acolytes and running dogs, including, among others, the media, Big Science, and Big Pharma, are liars who care not a whit about the rest of us. The very reason we elected Donald Trump for the third time is that we believe he cares. Do they think we slept through COVID? Do they think we were fooled by it? Do they think we missed its message? Image: Langley Air Force Base (edited). Public domain. We, the unwashed, must understand there are only three options for the government stonewall. The government is duplicitous, incompetent, or genuinely blindsided. Moreover, there are only five plausible sources for this UFO swarm: The swarm originates in either the USA, Private Enterprise, China, Russia, or ET. These five swarm source options above are not mutually exclusive. For example, the swarm might originate in a collaboration between China and Russia or China and ET. When the truth is finally learned, it might be illuminating, disappointing, or frightening. Trump says the government must disclose what’s going on or “shoot them down.” Chris Christie says continued stonewalling will create vigilantes. Trump seems to think that the government knows all about this and is choosing to conceal the relevant information, which means this is all a demonstration of something. For whatever reason, the stonewall continues. But now, at long last, there is a development that offers some light on the situation. The Daily Mail has reported that “An interactive map has revealed a disturbing pattern in drone sightings across the US.” The “disturbing pattern” is that the unexplained UFO swarm “has targeted America’s military bases worldwide since October, beginning with a swarm over Langley Air Force Base in Virginia.” So, the swarm has focused on US military bases! Many people have surmised this all along, and it now appears they were correct. From all this, we can conclude, not with mathematical certainty, but with considerable probability: 1. Neither the US nor private enterprise is the source. 2. The US military knows what is going on. 3. The military has informed the White House of what is going on. 4. The White House judges that the public should not be told. The question then is, “Why?” The inquiring mind can freely roam over numerous conjectures answering to “why”, but the single most probable is that the government fears being exposed as impotent to deal with the swarm. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 08:10
The Work Visa Debate: Not All Immigration Is Bad, But Focus On Americans First
1735303500 from ZEROHEDGE
The Work Visa Debate: Not All Immigration Is Bad, But Focus On Americans First After Donald Trump's overwhelming election victory in November the nation is adjusting to the reality that the mass immigration policies of the political left are about to be reversed. Not just ended, but turned back. This means mass deportations of millions of illegals and far more scrutiny on existing temporary visa programs. The logistics of such an unprecedented effort require intensive planning and a lot of debate. There is a contingent of MAGA that wants a total shutdown of migrant activity and a moratorium on work visas. For how long? No one seems to know, exactly, but it's a scorched earth response to the Biden Administration's excessive abuses of H-1B programs (and similar labor programs) to sneak millions of third world migrants into the country and label them "legal". Biden's free pass for Haitians and Venezuelan's, for example, was introduced at a time when the border crisis was hitting the mainstream media feeds and the public realized how bad the situation actually was. Biden and the Democrats offered Haitians and others temporary work visas and created a loophole, allowing the visas to be extended for years. In other words, Biden tried to reduce the number of border encounters by offering millions of illegals a backdoor into the US through work programs. The third worlders still get into the country and Biden can claim illegal immigration is going down. The longer migrants are able to stay in the US on visas, the easier it is for them to get permanent residency. This is called "Labor Certification" and it's the first step towards a Green Card. Because of the many loopholes associated with visa programs, Americans are now highly suspicious of any migration to “fill holes in the labor pool”. On the other side, some in MAGA want to end illegal immigration while increasing legal immigration of skilled workers. In other words, attract the best and brightest from around the globe and bring them here so that our competitors don't get them first. The threat of a complete shut down of all immigration, including skilled workers, has the tech industry concerned. Elon Musk chimed in on the H-1B issue recently and called for more foreign engineers to be allowed work status in the US. Some people agree, while many others are in an uproar, calling Musk a "traitor". There is a permanent shortage of excellent engineering talent. It is the fundamental limiting factor in Silicon Valley. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 25, 2024 No, we need more like double that number yesterday! The number of people who are super talented engineers AND super motivated in the USA is far too low. Think of this like a pro sports team: if you want your TEAM to win the championship, you need to recruit top talent wherever… — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 25, 2024 To be fair to Musk, he would know better than most what the deficiencies are in the STEM labor market in America given his industry focus. The fact is, not all immigration is bad immigration and going scorched earth on work visas might be a net negative to the US in the short term (perhaps even the long term). It should be noted that a lot of skilled immigrants come from Europe, Australia, the UK, Canada and other western nations, not just places like India or China. Others argue that America is not a sports team or a company, it's a home. People believe the system is inviting foreign workers into the US without giving a fair shot to native born Americans. The question is, do such American STEM workers exist in numbers large enough to fill industry needs? And, if not, what's the solution? Vivek Ramaswamy has chimed in on the issue via X, suggesting that there isn't an intelligence deficiency in the US, there's an educational and institutional deficiency: “The reason top tech companies often hire foreign-born & first-generation engineers over “native” Americans isn’t because of an innate American IQ deficit (a lazy & wrong explanation). A key part of it comes down to the c-word: culture. Tough questions demand tough answers & if we’re really serious about fixing the problem, we have to confront the TRUTH: Our American culture has venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long (at least since the 90s and likely longer). That doesn’t start in college, it starts YOUNG. A culture that celebrates the prom queen over the math olympiad champ, or the jock over the valedictorian, will not produce the best engineers.” This is essentially the same argument that conservatives have been making for many years; the decline in the American educational system, especially in STEM fields, is legendary at this point, along with the overall decline in culture. Vivek might be a little behind the times on the issue – Even athletic excellence in the US is no longer culturally venerated. The problem is mediocrity in every area of life. The most popular career choice for Gen Z is to become a “YouTube star”. No kid wants to be an astronaut anymore. There are some very smart people out there on YouTube, but no society can survive on a labor force full of wannabe "influencers". That said, US trust in the immigration system has been broken and even Vivek is receiving considerable blowback for his defense of H-1B visas. A common counter to Vivek's position is the claim that much of the "skilled labor" coming from countries like India is actually mediocre labor that does the job (barely) for cheaper wages while replacing better qualified Americans. Whether or not this is true on a wider scale needs to be investigated. As usual, whenever there is a divisive issue causing internal conflict and debate among conservative groups there are doom mongers that dance around the edges and act as if the entire movement is suddenly fracturing. Conservatives have never agreed on solutions – This is normal. They are not a hive mind like the political left, which is a good thing. Such debates are a sign of a healthy political process. What we really have here is an artificially created either/or scenario; skilled labor shortages should be treated as a "why not do both" scenario. First and foremost, Americans want actual proof of these labor shortages. They've heard stories for years but the proof is less accessible. What if tech companies and others in need of STEM labor were to engage the public in a large scale national labor fair? It sounds cheesy, but consider for a moment that the vast majority of companies today handle all their hiring through online cattle markets that often give job seekers the runaround. There is almost zero human interaction and no confirmation that a job was ever filled. There are companies that post fake job listings to make it appear as though they are growing, to make existing employees feel as though they can be replaced and to make existing employees think their extreme work load will soon be alleviated by new talent. This practice has stunted the stats on the labor market. Nationwide job fairs require money to set up and companies have to put people on standby to talk to prospective employees. There is energy and a sense of urgency involved. If skilled labor is truly hard to find, then Elon Musk and other industry leaders should have no problem putting come capital into a physical and interactive job fair – A national search for American talent in STEM in which workers talk to employers face-to-face instead of being filtered by websites and algorithms. It might even be prudent to make such labor searches a requirement for large companies before they're allowed to bring over migrant workers through visa programs. If the shortage is real then it will be obvious from the lack of participation on the side of job seekers or the lack of qualifications in their resumes. Then, those within MAGA that oppose migrant visas will have to admit that the demand is legitimate and that the only option, in the short term, is to bring in foreign labor. In the long term, the national education system needs to be completely overhauled and a focus on practical skills and advanced STEM has to be championed. Incentives to lure Americans back into science and engineering fields may be necessary. The US can do both: Cut immigration down to only the best and brightest, or down to labor pools with proven shortages, while also encouraging native-born American interest in such fields and creating a domestic pool of skilled assets. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/27/2024 - 07:45